Core Viewpoint - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for May unexpectedly dropped to 50.8, marking the second lowest level in history, driven by rising concerns over tariffs and inflation expectations [1][2]. Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index for May is 50.8, lower than the expected 53.4 and down from April's 52.2, indicating a significant decline in consumer sentiment [1]. - The current conditions index is at 57.6, while the expectations index is at 46.5, nearing a 45-year low [1]. Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation is at 7.3%, the highest since 1981, while the five-year inflation expectation is at 4.6%, the highest since 1991 [2]. - Recent surveys indicate that inflation expectations have surpassed previous ranges, with long-term expectations significantly higher than post-pandemic peaks [2]. Tariff Concerns - Nearly three-quarters of respondents mentioned tariffs, highlighting trade policy as a major influence on economic outlook [4]. - Despite a temporary reduction in tariffs announced on May 12, consumer confidence remains low, as many do not believe trade policies are stable enough for future planning [5]. Financial Outlook - Consumers' views on their current financial situation have dropped to the lowest level since 2009, with financial expectations also at a new low [6]. - The consumer sentiment data is expected to impact economic growth in the coming months, as pessimistic consumer sentiment may suppress spending [7].

大家周末，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息。 美股震荡 5月16日晚间，美股走势震荡，三大指数微涨。 自本周早些时候中美官员同意在关税措施上达成90天的停战协议以来，股市强势反弹，投资者对于全球贸易紧张局势升级以及经济风险 上升的担忧有所缓解。 特朗普称美国将在数周内 截至本周，标普500指数上涨了4.5%，道指上涨2.6%，纳指本周迄今已跃升逾6%。周四，标普500和道指双双收高，纳指则小幅回落。 确定对其他国家的关税税率 特朗普声称有"150个国家和地区希望达成协议"。他没有说明具体有多少国家，或是哪些国家将收到信函。他补充说，这些收到信函的国 家"可以提出申诉"，但没有解释这一申诉程序将如何进行。 Certuity首席投资官斯科特·韦尔奇表示："我们认为市场正在进入一个新的阶段，波动性将加大，而那些市值巨大的科技股将不再轻易主 导市场表现。我们并不看空这些股票，只是认为当前进行多元化配置是更明智的做法。" 特朗普表示，他将在"未来两到三周内"为美国的贸易伙伴设定关税税率，并称其政府目前没有能力与所有贸易伙伴同时展开谈判。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税，但随后在投资者恐慌情绪下将措施暂缓90天， ...

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," introducing a private equity "reverse linkage" arrangement for the first time [1] International News - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, stating that the U.S. will not fall into recession [3] - New Jersey Transit, the third-largest commuter rail operator in the U.S., has gone on strike for the first time in 40 years, affecting the travel of hundreds of thousands [3] - U.S. one-year inflation expectations for May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly dipped to the second-lowest historical level but ended a four-month streak of significant declines [3] - Trump announced that the U.S. has $10 trillion in investments, considering increasing it to approximately $13 trillion, and has proposed a nuclear agreement to Iran [3] - Trump indicated that new tariffs will be imposed on many countries within the next two to three weeks; Japan may not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. by the end of July, and the Korea-U.S. trade agreement may be finalized after the July 8 deadline [3] - In the Russia-Ukraine talks, discussions lasted only two hours, with Russia demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal as a condition for ceasefire; Ukraine found the demands unacceptable, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war [3] Company News - The Hang Seng Index will include Midea Group and ZTO Express; the Hang Seng Tech Index will add BYD Company while removing Reading Group [4] - The Honghu Fund Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion yuan, is set to invest in the market soon [4] - CATL announced the H-share offering price at HKD 263.00 per share [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor *ST Jinguang and other stocks with delisting risk warnings this week [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will focus on stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, such as *ST Yushun and ST Jiajia, this week [4]

美元指数DXY短线上涨16点，现报100.84，此前数据显示通胀预期走高，消费者信心降低。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Retail sales in the U.S. showed a significant slowdown in April, indicating that consumers are reducing spending on imported goods due to concerns over rising prices from tariffs. The month-over-month growth rate for retail sales fell to 0.1%, down from a revised 1.7% in March, although it was above the expected flat growth [1]. Retail Sales Data - April retail sales increased by 0.1% month-over-month, which was higher than the expected 0.0% but lower than the previous month's revised growth of 1.7% [2]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles also grew by 0.1%, missing the expected 0.3% and down from a revised 0.8% in March [1][2]. Category Performance - Out of 13 reported categories, 7 experienced declines, with auto sales slightly down after a surge in March. However, spending at restaurants and bars continued to show strong growth for the second consecutive month [3]. - The control group sales, an important indicator for GDP calculations, decreased by 0.2%, suggesting a weak start for the second quarter [6]. Economic Outlook - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted a 2.3% growth for the second quarter, indicating a significant rebound from the contraction seen earlier in the year due to tariff-related import surges [6]. - Federal Reserve officials remain uncertain about the long-term economic impact of tariffs and are likely to maintain interest rates in the near future, focusing on controlling inflation rather than preemptively cutting rates [6]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - Despite the lack of immediate inflation from tariffs, consumer confidence appears to be waning, with major retailers like Walmart indicating that they may need to raise prices due to tariffs and economic uncertainty [8]. - Executives from various companies, including Energizer Holdings and Nu Skin Enterprises, expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs and reduced consumer confidence on sales [8].

金十数据5月9日讯，美联储巴尔金表示，不是所有的公司都可以提高价格来抵消关税成本，他警告称， 经过多年的通胀，消费者的容忍度很低。"我从零售商那里听到的是，消费者手头拮据，"巴尔金 说。"这意味着你要把价格传递给消费者不是你想象的那么容易。"巴尔金仍然认为美国经济状况良好。 他补充说，消费者支出和企业投资仍然稳固。他指出，虽然消费者信心指标明显疲弱，但这尚未拖累支 出。巴尔金说，他正在考虑关税是否会减缓经济增长，达到抑制通胀的程度。他说，这是2008年的经 历，但也有其他时候并没有发生。 美联储巴尔金：不是所有的公司都可以因关税提高价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, stated that consumer spending and business investment remain very robust, although consumer confidence does not align with spending levels [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending is reported to be strong, indicating a healthy economic environment [1] - Business investment continues to show resilience, contributing positively to economic growth [1] - There is a noted discrepancy between consumer confidence and actual spending behavior, suggesting potential underlying issues [1]

美联储巴尔金：到目前为止，消费者信心与支出并不一致。 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，美国宾夕法尼亚州马歇尔金融公司首席投资官Adam Reinert表示，虽然鲍威尔及其 同僚或许能从近期的劳动力市场数据中获得些许安慰，但关税进一步影响的威胁切实存在，这可能促使 他们在未来的会议中采取行动。从宏观层面来看，我们认为一个关键考量因素将是，实际数据是否开始 证实消费者信心走弱，或者消费者是否会像2022年那样继续展现出韧性。 如果2018年的关税谈判能提 供什么借鉴的话，那便是美联储可能需要采取不那么强硬、更为宽松的政策，才能让市场和经济摆脱任 何与关税相关的潜在困境。 分析师：消费者信心成关键变量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of U.S. trade policies is leading investors to increasingly rely on "soft data" for decision-making, as traditional "hard data" indicators become outdated in a rapidly changing environment [1][2]. Group 1: Shift to Soft Data - Investors are turning to sentiment surveys and other forms of soft data to gauge current conditions, as hard indicators like unemployment rates and retail sales lag behind [1]. - Cresset Capital's CIO Jack Ablin emphasizes the need for soft data to understand the present situation due to a lack of real-time information [1]. - Reflection Asset Management's CIO Jason Britton notes that consumer sentiment is crucial, as poor consumer feelings can lead to reduced spending and economic harm [2]. Group 2: Divergence of Signals - There is a noted divergence between signals from hard data and soft data, which can sometimes fail to accurately depict future economic conditions [2]. - In 2022, despite a drop in consumer confidence, strong labor markets and household balance sheets led to continued consumer spending, contradicting recession predictions [2]. Group 3: Alternative Data Sources - Some market participants are seeking alternative indicators beyond traditional surveys, with Duke University professor Campbell Harvey highlighting the importance of new data sources during uncertain times [3]. - Harvey points to predictive markets like Polymarket, where users bet on various economic events, as valuable insights based on real-world interactions [3]. - Glenmede's Mike Reynolds is exploring new metrics, such as international tourist spending in the U.S., to assess the impact of tariffs [3][4]. Group 4: Caution on Soft Data - Despite the trend towards soft data, some experts, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, advocate for focusing on hard data, which they believe provides a more accurate economic picture [5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges the tension between hard and soft data, indicating that both will be considered in future rate decisions [5]. - Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius warns against over-reliance on soft data, as it may reflect sentiment rather than actual economic activity, potentially leading to false alarms [5].