2025年06月22日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：短期仓单去化较快，但上方空间有限 | 11 | | 多晶硅：继续维持空配思路 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：供增需减，关注仓单注销矛盾 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 22 日 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：矿端逻辑钝化而冶炼端限制上方弹性，全球现实显性库存边际重新累增。短线多头主要 关注印尼 6 月镍矿溢价边际高位持平，火法一体化成本偏高或限制镍价下方空间。不过，市场关于印尼配 额增加的消息影响矿端预期，菲律宾与印尼矿价经济性差的收敛或限制印尼镍矿的上方弹性，而且往年的 第三季度常常是印尼配额释放和镍矿溢 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250622 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20250616-20250620） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20250616-20250620）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 26 只，合计发行规模约 431.52 亿元，较上周增加 26.20 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司、中央国有企业、 大型民企、其他企业；主体评级多为 AAA、A1 级；发行人地域为福建 省、北京市、广东省、天津市、河北省、湖北省、江苏省、广西壮族自 治区、海南省、山东省、上海市、云南省、浙江省；发行债券种类为中 期票据、交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、超短期融资券、科创债、私募 公司债。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250616-20250620）绿色债券周成交额合计 873 亿元，较上周增 加 251 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为金融机构债、非金公司信 用债和利率债，分别为 427 亿元、310 亿元和 119 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比 ...

Group 1: Financial Forum Highlights - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focused on "Financial Openness and High-Quality Development in the Global Economic Landscape," gathering international guests to discuss new development paths and financial empowerment for the economy [1] - The forum coincided with the first meeting of the Shanghai International Financial Center Construction Coordination Mechanism, emphasizing the need for enhanced financial risk management and offshore financial functions [1][2] - A series of significant policies and documents were released by Chinese financial authorities to support the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center, including the establishment of the China Capital Market Society [1][2] Group 2: Central Government Support - The Central Financial Work Conference emphasized enhancing the competitiveness and influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center, with a goal to elevate its capabilities over the next five to ten years [2] - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to support the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center, aiming for a modern financial system with improved adaptability and competitiveness [2] Group 3: Financial Cooperation Between Shanghai and Hong Kong - The Shanghai and Hong Kong financial centers signed the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan," outlining specific directions for cooperation [5] - The collaboration aims to enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi and improve financial infrastructure connectivity between the two cities [5][6] Group 4: Capital Market Development - The capital market is seen as a core component of the modern economic financial system, with ongoing volatility due to global factors [6][7] - The Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges are expected to leverage their strengths for mutual development, creating a multi-layered market system [7] Group 5: Technological and Green Finance - The forum highlighted the role of financial support in developing new productive forces, with policy banks emphasizing resource allocation and collaboration with enterprises [9] - Green finance was discussed as a crucial element for sustainable economic development, with calls for improved policies and standards [11][12] Group 6: Inclusive Finance and AI Integration - Discussions on inclusive finance focused on leveraging new technologies to enhance service accessibility and efficiency [13] - The integration of AI in finance was noted as a trend, with emphasis on regulatory cooperation to ensure balanced development [14]

中经记者 陈晶晶 北京报道 6月19日，中国人民保险集团股份有限公司(以下简称"中国人保"，601319.SH)副董事长、总裁赵鹏在 2025陆家嘴论坛"完善绿色金融政策、标准和产品体系"全体大会上表示，保险业要把握好保险机制在绿 色发展中的独特定位和作用，创新产品服务，建立标准规范，努力成为灾害风险的韧性复原者、环境外 部性的重要治理者和绿色经济转型的长期投资者。 据其透露：2024年，中国人保服务绿色发展投资规模超过千亿元，下一步，中国人保将开展投资组合碳 排放测算，渐进有序降低资产组合的碳强度，稳步提高绿色投资比重。 三方面推动绿色发展 据悉，《行动方案》围绕金融服务航运安全、服务航运便利化、服务航运绿色转型三方面，针对当前上 海国际航运中心建设工作的重点难点，推出十项具体行动措施，以银行保险合力推动航运全产业链融合 扩容、促进高质量发展，致力于提升航运金融和航运保险领域的中国话语权。 据赵鹏介绍，中国人保已升级成立中国城乡居民住宅巨灾保险共同体，创新研发"PICC气象指数保险定 价模型"，推动巨灾保险保障范围从单一地震灾因向台风、洪水、暴雨、泥石流等多灾因扩展，2024年 地方性巨灾保险覆盖范围已扩展 ...

2025陆家嘴论坛于6月19日闭幕。"开放合作"是本届论坛的核心主题，而论坛也汇聚了来自全球各国的全 球或亚太区"一把手"。 在论坛期间，第一财经采访了英国伦敦金融城政策与资源委员会主席贺凯思（Chris Hayward）。他强调， 在全球不确定性加剧的环境下，经济增长为首要目标，因而中英合作的重要性凸显。 "英国政府明确将经济发展作为核心任务，英国财政大臣在1月讲话中强调英国经济增长的重要性，并提及 中英经济与金融对话的关键作用。"贺凯思称，英国财政大臣里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）年初与中国国务院副 总理何立峰共同主持第11次中英经济财金对话。这是中英时隔近六年后再次举办这一高层经济对话。 当前，英国主要的经济挑战是持续通胀与央行高利率政策。贺凯思称，应对措施是加强政策透明度与信息 共享，英国央行会通过定期发布货币政策纪要、通胀报告等增强信任，呼吁全球加强此类实践。同时，他 建议强化国际协作机制，继续发挥G20、IMF、国际清算银行等国际机构的作用，并加强实时对话以协调 预期、防范系统性风险。另外，他表示需推进包容性改革，进一步加强信息共享机制，吸纳新兴经济体参 与，推动开放透明的政策制定。 他表示 ...

Group 1: Inclusive Finance Development - Inclusive finance is a crucial pathway for achieving social equity and economic inclusiveness, with discussions at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum focusing on enhancing the balance and accessibility of inclusive financial services [1] - Experts emphasize the need for collaboration among different financial institutions to promote high-quality development of inclusive finance, with policy banks playing a leading role in supporting underdeveloped areas through medium to long-term loans [3][5] - The challenges of inclusive finance, such as information asymmetry and high costs, are being addressed through innovations like mobile payments and digital banking, which have significantly improved global coverage and convenience [5] Group 2: AI Empowerment in Finance - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a key topic at the forum, with discussions highlighting its dual role in providing opportunities and challenges for the financial industry [8][12] - AI technology is deeply integrated into core financial business scenarios, driving efficiency improvements, particularly in risk control and compliance [10][13] - Financial institutions are increasingly adopting AI for various applications, including algorithmic trading and intelligent investment advisory, reshaping traditional business logic [10][13] Group 3: Green Finance Collaboration - The forum also addresses the pressing need for green finance in light of escalating climate change issues, with discussions on enhancing international cooperation and improving the green finance service system [14][16] - Experts point out that global performance in green finance is below expectations, necessitating continued efforts to tackle climate change and promote sustainable development [16] - Recommendations include establishing a standard system, fostering product innovation, and enhancing collaboration to address the challenges faced by green finance [17][20]

ESG Policies - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed an action plan to enhance the ESG ratings of listed companies in the Shanghai market through six key measures, including providing rating guidance, promoting communication, improving information disclosure, forming best practices, strengthening positive incentives, and enhancing management performance [1] ESG Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has announced a periodic adjustment of its indices, including the ChiNext Index, which will exclude companies rated below B in the National ESG rating, while implementing a weight adjustment factor with a 20% weight cap for individual stocks during each adjustment [2][3] Global Energy Transition - The World Economic Forum's report indicates that China's ranking in the Energy Transition Index has improved to 12th place globally, surpassing France, the UK, and the US, reflecting the country's commitment to green development and providing a significant practical example for global energy transition [4] Green Finance Development - China's green credit market is the largest globally, with green bonds and green insurance markets also ranking among the top worldwide. The demand for funding to meet carbon emission targets by 2030 is expected to exceed 25 trillion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential in green finance [5] Contribution to Global Sustainability Standards - The ISSB Chairman has acknowledged China's recent draft on corporate sustainability disclosure, highlighting its commitment to improving the quality and transparency of climate-related financial information, thereby enhancing global comparability in information disclosure [6] Hydrogen Industry Development - Hunan Province has issued a three-year action plan for hydrogen industry development, aiming to create a high ground for hydrogen equipment and materials, and establish application demonstration zones, which may foster new green growth in the central region and provide replicable practices for national hydrogen industry development [7]

编号:2025-08 投资者关系活动类 别 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观 □其他： 参与单位名称及人 员姓名 中泰证券邓美君、王玉瑶，招商基金罗丽思 时间 2025 年 6 月 20 日下午 地点 本行 4 楼会议室 上市公司接待人员 姓名 本行高管及相关部门人员 投资者关系活动主 要内容介绍 1. 美国关税政策对贵行客户影响如何？贵行有何应对措施？ 答：从整体来看，涉及对美进出口的企业在我行授信客户较少，总体 影响可控。我行将密切关注相关国际政策带来的变化，为企业提供汇率避 险等服务，助力企业规避贸易风险；同时加强对存量进出口授信企业的金 融支持力度，通过减费让利、优化流程等措施，助力企业拓展销路，降低 企业融资成本，提高融资效率。 2. 贵行全年新增贷款展望如何？ 答：2025 年我行贷款规模预计保持稳步增长。我行将继续围绕支持实 体经济、服务乡村振兴，加大涉农、普惠小微的信贷投放，夯实"支农支 小"的战略定位，持续加强对普惠金融、绿色金融、战略性新兴产业等重 点领域的支持力度，持续积极推进信贷业务增长，紧跟金融发展趋势，不 断调整和优化信贷投放 ...

值此"绿水青山就是金山银山"理念提出二十载、"双碳"目标擘画五周年之际，邮储银行北京分行通过一 步步地创新、实践，深耕绿色金融沃土，为银行业绿色转型树立起绿色标杆，成为首都绿色金融的样 本。 打造看得见的绿色金融"前沿哨所" 自天安门东望二十里，一座依水而兴的千年之城——北京城市副中心，正以磅礴之势崛起。在"全球财 富管理中心"与"全球绿色金融与可持续金融中心"的双重定位下，其金融业亦迎来换挡升级的蝶变时 刻。 邮储银行北京通州区九棵树支行就位于这一区域，当前这家支行开始拥有自己独特的"绿色"印记。 邮储银行北京分行积极响应2024年国家发展改革委和北京市人民政府联合印发的《北京城市副中心建设 国家绿色发展示范区实施方案》，前瞻布局特色机构。通州区九棵树支行正蜕变为"绿色特色支行"，不 仅完成工商变更与更名批复，更是在围绕碳减排、绿色金融等主题进行网点深度绿色化改造，打造市民 看得见的绿色金融"前沿哨所"。 邮储银行北京分行的绿色创新，又不止于目之所及？企业碳足迹的精算与价值转化，是其近年来的创新 焦点。碳评级报告，一纸风行，两处生辉：既为"降碳贷"业务的利率审批提供精准标尺，又化作吸引新 客户的磁石。202 ...

Group 1: Core Business and Technological Advancements - Sichuan Bank has enhanced its core system's concurrent processing capability by 28 times, resulting in faster customer response times and improved service experience [1][3] - The bank's digital transformation, initiated in 2022, has led to the establishment of a comprehensive architecture covering business, application, technology, data, and security [2][3] - The new disaster recovery system allows for a recovery time objective (RTO) of less than 15 minutes and a recovery point objective (RPO) approaching zero, setting a benchmark for small and medium-sized banks [3] Group 2: Green Finance Initiatives - Sichuan Bank's green loan balance reached 16.5 billion yuan, a nearly 60-fold increase since its inception, with an annual compound growth rate exceeding 230% [5] - The bank has developed a "green finance" service system that integrates financing and intelligence, supporting low-carbon development initiatives [4][5] - The first sustainable development-linked loan for a high-carbon industry in Sichuan was issued by the bank, expected to save 13,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 22,800 tons annually [5] Group 3: Inclusive Financial Services - The "Shu Nong One Card" has been issued to over 400,000 users, facilitating access to various financial services for rural residents [6] - Sichuan Bank has implemented a rural revitalization financial model that integrates credit services and support networks, establishing 66 "Shu Nong Benefit Stations" across 14 cities [6] - The "Anyi Panda Cultural Tourism One Card" has been launched, integrating over 38,000 merchants and driving consumption of 4.5 billion yuan [7] Group 4: Support for Strategic Industries - Sichuan Bank provided 1.13 billion yuan in credit to the Sichuan Yongying new materials project, demonstrating its commitment to supporting strategic emerging industries [8] - The bank has created over 200 financial products, including "Chuan Yin Sci-Tech Loan" and "Chuan Yin Intelligent Manufacturing Loan," to better serve various sectors [9][10] - The bank's loan balance exceeded 240.7 billion yuan, with an investment business balance of over 190 billion yuan, achieving an annual growth rate of over 35% [8][10]