1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4950. [10] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [15] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. [14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. [14][15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in the production schedule. [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 30.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2339.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The ethylene factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.6 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. It is neutral. [12] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. It is bearish. [12] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method weakened, and the cost of ethylene method strengthened, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center of the soybean system is expected to decline. The domestic supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is relatively loose, and the market will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to short soybean meal at high points, conduct M11 - 1 positive arbitrage, and sell a wide - straddle options strategy [4][5][9][10]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market oscillated. Due to Argentina's export tariff cut, soybean export pressure increased, but the market reaction was limited. Domestic soybean meal's decline narrowed today after a significant drop yesterday, while rapeseed meal's decline widened. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened, and the inter - monthly spreads of both continued to decline [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The ending stocks of the old - crop balance sheet were slightly raised. The new - crop supply increased slightly due to a slight increase in planted area, offsetting a small decrease in yield per unit. If exports do not improve, the market may face downward pressure, and the upside is also limited [5]. - **South American Soybeans**: The supply - demand of South American old - crop soybeans is relatively loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazil's farmers' slow selling progress may keep prices under pressure, although there is optimism about future exports [5]. - **International Soybean Meal**: The supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in the crush volume of major producing areas, while imports of major importing countries only increase slightly [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic supply of soybean meal is loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and inventories. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure remains, although the deep - decline space is limited [4][7]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiations lacked clear macro - guidance. The market is concerned about supply uncertainties, but the demand for US soybeans in the long - term may prevent a sharp decline in prices [8]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - Argentina's tariff cut brings uncertainties. If more soybeans are exported, the pressure will be obvious. The international soybean market supply is loose, and the upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal has inventory pressure, and the inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may face further downward pressure [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short soybean meal at high points. - **Arbitrage**: M11 - 1 positive arbitrage. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [10]. 3.6 Soybean Crush Profit - The crush profit varies by origin and shipping date. Argentina's November shipment has a positive change in crush profit, while Brazil's crush profit shows different trends depending on the shipping month [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, lowering supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; with the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. Different types of asphalt and related product开工率 show mixed trends, with most below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. - **Lido**: The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support [12]. - **Risks**: High - priced supply has insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price and the profit difference trend between asphalt and coking products [13][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventory of different types decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.14%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [17]. - **Price Trends**: The report provides trends of asphalt basis, spreads between main contracts, asphalt - crude oil price, crude oil cracking spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [19][22][25]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit difference between coking and asphalt show certain trends over time [37][40]. - **Supply**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export**: The report shows the trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - **Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, showing data such as monthly production, import, export, and inventory [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4907 - 4969 [6][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production will increase slightly to 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin has different changes, with some higher and some lower than the historical average [7][9] - **Cost side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 30.80% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2379.25 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The factory inventory of ethylene method was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [7] - **Market situation**: On September 22, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, and their changes compared with the previous period [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the basis trend of PVC futures over a long - term period, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [16] - **Price and trading volume trend**: It presents the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025 [20] - **Spread analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects - **Calcium carbide method - Related raw materials**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method for PVC production [25][28][30][32] - **PVC supply trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, maintenance volume, and profit of PVC production by calcium carbide method and ethylene method [37][40] - **Demand trend**: Examines the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the situation of related downstream products such as paste resin and the real - estate market and some macro - economic indicators [42][46][53] - **Inventory situation**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, factory inventory of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - **Ethylene method - Related aspects**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads in the ethylene method for PVC production [60] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the domestic supply significantly exceeds demand. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. However, due to the export policy not being more relaxed than expected, the overall domestic market remains in a situation of oversupply. It is predicted that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures price has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. Although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-20), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.421 million tons (+51,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR market will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | -20 | 01 Contract | 1660 | -1 | Warehouse Receipt | 7535 | -275 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | -20 | Basis | 40 | -19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.421 million tons | +51,000 tons | | Henan Spot | 1720 | -10 | UR01 | 1660 | -1 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 957,000 tons | +70,000 tons | | FOB China | 3201 | | UR05 | 1713 | -9 | UR Port Inventory | 464,000 tons | -19,000 tons | | | | | UR09 | 1734 | -10 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | - | - | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. The demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The disk is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract opened at 4883 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4950 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.37% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different trends, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton spread was 2449.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: The document presents the base - price trend chart of PVC futures, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. - **Price and Volume**: The document shows the price and volume trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The document shows the spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [19][22][24][26]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the production, maintenance volume, and profit trends of PVC [30][33]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the profit, production, and cost of paste resin. It also involves real - estate and macro - economic indicators such as real - estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [36][37][39][46][50]. - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory [52]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads [54]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [57]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 4980. The current demand may remain weak, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - The fundamentals are neutral. The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, also bearish. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in factory inventory but an increase in social inventory, generally bearish. The disk shows a neutral state with the MA20 moving down and the 01 - contract futures price closing above the MA20 [7][8][10]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [13][14]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and production data for different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as downstream开工 rates and profit margins [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and volume trends, and spread analysis of the main contracts of PVC futures, showing the historical data and trends of these indicators [17][20][23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals 3.4.1 Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials - For calcium carbide - based raw materials, the report shows the price, cost - profit, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as their historical trends [26][29][31]. 3.4.2 PVC Supply - The supply side shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the historical trends of these indicators [38][41]. 3.4.3 PVC Demand - The demand side includes data on the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工 rates of PVC, as well as real - estate - related data such as investment, construction area, and sales volume, and their historical trends [43][45][54]. 3.4.4 PVC Inventory - The inventory section shows the data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days, as well as their historical trends [60]. 3.4.5 Ethylene - Based PVC - For ethylene - based PVC, the report provides data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads, as well as their historical trends [62]. 3.4.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, and presents the monthly supply - demand trends [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish, with supply pressure still high and demand recovery weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The price of asphalt 2511 is expected to oscillate between 3405 - 3449 [7][8][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support [11] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9] - **Market**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions decreased [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and profit. For example, the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.54% [16] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025 [18][19] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of crude oil crack spreads for asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44][45] - **Production**: Shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47][48] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Displays the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55] - **开工 Rate**: Shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57][58] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: Presents the historical trend of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 - 2025 [59][60] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][64][65] - **Social and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67] - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: Presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [72][73] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [75][76][77] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Data**: Presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt 开工 Rate**: Displays the historical 开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate by Use**: Shows the historical 开工 rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream 开工 Situation**: Presents the historical 开工 rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import and export volume, and inventory data [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - The daily view is bearish, with positive factors such as supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages; negative factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,439.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 103 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an expected increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,894 - 4,953 [9]