交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is influenced by multiple factors, with supply pressure increasing and demand potentially remaining weak. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4960 - 5070 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish [14]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 324,580 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 127,700 tons, a 12.82% increase. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, slightly increased, but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On August 1, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 345,340 tons, a 3.28% decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 269,190 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 76,150 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 448,000 tons, a 4.91% increase. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [11]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, presenting a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC enterprises [17]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [19]. - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of different main contracts of PVC futures, providing information for spread trading analysis [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: - **Lanthanum Carbon**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of lanthanum carbon [29]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide [32]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It presents the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and inventory of caustic soda [36]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also shows the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment data [44]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - **Ethylene - Based**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：焦企利润水平偏低，生产积极性一般，部分亏损焦企仍保持前期减产状态。另外，部分焦 企厂内原料煤库存偏低，焦企开工暂时难有改善，且随着下游积极拿货，焦企厂内库存水平偏低，焦炭 供应仍显紧张；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1530，基差-55；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6万吨，总样本库存839.7万吨，较 上周减少3.8万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦炭主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：产地焦企生产仍有受限，区域内焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 31st, and the US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing [6][16][19]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal increases in automobile production and sales and a record - high tire production in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [8][25][31]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in the Qingdao area [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 1、基本面: 中性。 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为77%，环比增加.33个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树 脂开工率为76.07%，环比减少0.21个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价 格占优；当前需求或持续低迷 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.4572%，环比减 少0.09个百分点，低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为27%，环比增加2.00个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为30%，环比增加2.00个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为-547.8元/吨，环比增加7.50%，周度山东地炼延迟焦化 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strongly - biased oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the support level of MA20. The core logic is the poor fundamentals and the weak oscillation of steel prices [2]. - In the context of the double - weak situation of supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak. With the poor market sentiment, steel prices are prone to be under pressure and run weakly. However, the low - inventory pattern limits the industrial contradictions and the downward space. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation state, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is strongly - biased oscillating. The core logic is the poor fundamentals and the weak oscillation of steel prices. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and the definitions of different price trends [2]. Market Driving Logic - The previous optimistic expectations have been revised, the market sentiment has weakened, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar continues the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, the weekly output of rebar has decreased slightly, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the low - supply pattern is difficult to continue. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened again, high - frequency indicators have declined, and it is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. In general, the steel price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation state, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多增。 偏多。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-30燃料油早报 1、基本面：低硫燃料油市场结构维持稳定，但交易商仍担忧短期内新加坡地区供应过剩导致库存累积的 风险，尽管西北欧至新加坡的含硫0.5%船燃套利窗口持续关闭，但贸易商表示大量低硫调和组分仍持续流 入新加坡市场，市场整体供应充足，高硫燃料油市场继续受供应充足和需求疲软压制；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油403.25美元/吨，基差为108元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为506.5美元/吨，基差 为172元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月23日当周库存为1990.9万桶，减少45万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空 6、预期：隔夜美国对俄罗斯的制裁豁免期再度缩短引发市场情绪大幅升温，后续可能对俄罗斯原油燃油 出口进行干预，消息刺激价格上行，短期预计偏强运行。FU2509：2930-3000区间偏多运行，LU2510： 3660-3720区间偏多运行 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年7月29日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...