中东局势相关新闻 4/28 美军称对胡塞武装造成致命打击 但不会披露行动细节。 4/29 以色列官员：（关于加沙问题谈判取得突破的）报道是不正确的。目前还没有真正的进展, 4/29 埃及消息人士：埃以在开罗讨论加沙停火新提议。一名埃及安全部门消息人士28日告诉新华社，埃及官员当天在首都开罗 与以色列战略事务部长德尔默率领的以方代表团举行会议，讨论一项旨在实现加沙地带停火的新提议。这两名不愿透露姓名的消 息人士表示，埃及提出了一项新提议，主要内容包括暂时停火6个月，以换取巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）释放—半以色 列被扣押人员。以方此前拒绝了埃及提出的一项哈马斯释放所有以色列被扣押人员以换取停火5年的提议。两名消息人士说，新 提议还包括以色列军队分阶段撤出加沙地带、开始加沙地带重建等内容。 注: XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布。 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队。 | | 2025/4/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 告约 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基 | 昨日成交量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the price increase announcement failed, and the market is in a pessimistic atmosphere with wide - range fluctuations and in a bottom - searching process. The short - term operation is difficult, and risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1][4]. - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies intend to support prices, but cannot avoid price wars among alliances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In the eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the March services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), and the March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed down significantly [3]. - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI preliminary value was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5, the highest in three months [3]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. d. Contract Information - On April 18, the main contract 2506 closed at 1533.0, with a decline of 1.11%, a trading volume of 53,900 lots, and an open interest of 36,100 lots, a reduction of 817 lots from the previous day [4]. - The price limit for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. e. Other Information - Most shipping companies will continue to use the April - end freight rates in early May, and the price increase announcement in early May failed, with a generally bearish atmosphere and wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Maersk will adjust the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for routes from countries in the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice, with 1000 US dollars for small containers and 2000 US dollars for large containers [5]. - There are reports that Hamas is willing to reach a long - term cease - fire with Israel and hand over the governance control of Gaza to an independent institution, but the news has not been confirmed by Hamas [4][5]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a statement opposing the US 301 investigation measures against China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding sectors [5].