以下文章来源于大势看财经 ，作者张一 大势看财经 . 《财经》杂志宏观学术部团队以独立、独家、独到的信念为读者提供原创的宏观政策解读、部委政策动 向、经济趋势前瞻以及名家前沿观察 美国有意无意推动美元贬值的行为对国际金融体系的影响有可能在未来进一步显现，金融市场的巨幅 波动不可避免。 张一 恒泰证券 研究所所长、 首席经济学家 自特朗普再度入主白宫后，其团队推出了一项被称之为"海湖庄园协议"（Mar-a-Lago Accord） 的经济战略构想。该战略构想来自特朗普政府经济顾问委员会（CEA）主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）于2024年11月撰写的一份题为《重构全球贸易体系使用指南》（A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System）的报告（《米兰报告》）。从特朗普百日施政的结 果看，基于该报告的"海湖庄园协议"构想已经对全球金融、贸易、产业乃至政治格局产生影响。从 趋势看，未来相当长一段时间而不是特朗普执政这四年，相关战略思想都会持续对国际政治经济格局 产生影响。 图表1 美元储备和美元指数对比 该报告主要涵盖三方面内容，一是美 ...

美债又崩了！ 5月15日，美债收益率集体大涨，各期限收益率均超4%，30年期美债收益率逼近5%大关、10年期美债 收益率升破4.5%关口。 01 见 本次美债抛售与4月有何区别？ 这一幕，让人不禁联想起上月的情景。那么，这两轮美债抛售有何异同点？ 据人民日报分析，4月以来美长期国债收益率快速上升及其导致的市场巨震，主要受四重因素驱动： 一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期； 二是外国投资者购美债意愿进一步下降； 三是美国债收益率单边飙升导致国债基差交易快速平仓； 四是美国债作为全球安全资产的声誉被严重削弱。 人民日报进一步分析， 不排除未来几个月内美长期国债收益率继续显著上升的可能性 ，这无疑将给美 自身带来更多风险。美债信用严重降低，最终动摇的是美元霸权根基。 02 机构观点不一 国内机构对美债看法存在分歧。 中金公司指出，4月下旬以来美国关税态度有所软化，5月12日中美贸易谈判取得重大进展，提升风险偏 好，美股与美元都明显反弹，但这并没有解决美元美债避险能力下降的问题，如果再次面临负面冲击， 美元资产可能仍比较脆弱。此外，特朗普政府减税政策可能导致美国债务加速扩张，利空美债，进一步 弱化其避险功能， ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to counteract the inflation caused by his tariff policies, while the Fed maintains its independence and focuses on combating inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Impacts - Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates is primarily driven by the negative impact of his tariff policies, which have increased import costs and led to input inflation [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1][5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April increased by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of 2.4%, suggesting that the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in economic data [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve is designed to be insulated from political fluctuations to maintain long-term economic stability, and it has stated that it will not yield to political pressure from Trump [4]. - The Fed's primary responsibilities include maintaining price stability and a healthy labor market, which are guided by economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is also influenced by historical lessons and the need to preserve policy space for potential future crises [5]. Group 3: Global Economic Dynamics - Despite the ongoing tensions, both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve share a common goal of maintaining the dollar's strong position in the global financial system [7]. - There is a growing demand among Asian banks and brokers for currency derivatives that bypass the dollar, indicating a potential erosion of the dollar's dominance [8]. - The increasing interest in loans denominated in renminbi reflects a shift in global financial dynamics, as businesses seek alternatives to the dollar [8].

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 在全球去美元化言论甚嚣尘上的背景下，稳定币可能成为美元霸权的意外救星。 美元稳定币正以惊人速度扩张其在跨境支付、国际贸易和个人金融中的影响力，以致于伦敦政治经济学院一位教授最近在一场演讲中提出警告： 美元计价的稳 定币正在欧洲蔓延，这可能对欧元区经济主权构成严重威胁。 而据追风交易台消息，德意志银行最新的研究报告显示，稳定币正以惊人速度进入主流支付系统，交易量已突破28万亿美元，超过Visa和Mastercard。传统支 付巨头也开始接受这一趋势——Visa最近宣布与稳定币公司Bridge合作，启用跨境支付与拉丁美洲的联系，并投资于初创公司BVNK，进一步发展其稳定币支 付能力。 而稳定币不仅仅是金融工具，它们正迅速成为战略资产，有83%与美元挂钩，Tether位列美国国债的最大持有者之一， 这一系列趋势不仅代表新的资产类别崛 起，更暗示了美元霸权通过数字化方式的巩固与扩张。 欧洲的忧虑：美元稳定币入侵欧元区 稳定币是一种通过与美元或欧元等现有货币挂钩来维持稳定价值的加密货币。目前，全球流通的稳定币价值超过200 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Netflix series "The Chaos of Youth" highlights the toxic masculinity and gender education deficiencies in schools and families, leading to tragic outcomes such as violence against women [1][2][3]. Group 1: Themes of Toxic Masculinity - The series portrays how boys like Jamie are victims of a patriarchal system that pressures them to conform to traditional masculine ideals, resulting in violent behavior [2][5]. - The narrative illustrates the emotional disconnect between fathers and sons, emphasizing the lack of positive emotional communication, which contributes to the perpetuation of toxic masculinity [1][3]. - A survey by Kantar in 2018 shows that young men associate masculinity with traits like bravery (98%), being the best (58%), and never crying (37%), indicating a strong adherence to traditional masculine norms [6]. Group 2: Emotional Education and Empathy - The series suggests that boys need to reconnect with their emotions, allowing them to express feelings like sadness and anger, which is crucial for their mental health [9][10]. - Encouraging boys to articulate their emotions and understand various feelings can help them develop emotional intelligence and avoid the pitfalls of toxic masculinity [10][11]. - The importance of empathy is highlighted, advocating for a shift in educational approaches to foster emotional understanding rather than competitive aggression [12][13]. Group 3: Breaking Down Masculine Norms - The narrative calls for an end to the rigid rules of masculinity that dictate how boys should behave, promoting the idea that there are multiple ways to express masculinity [14][15]. - It emphasizes the need to challenge societal constructs that define masculinity, allowing boys to grow into their authentic selves without the constraints of traditional gender roles [15].

5月1 5日，美 债 收 益 率 集 体 大 涨，各 期 限 收 益 率 均 超 4 %，3 0 年 期 美 债 收 益 率 逼 近 5 % 大 关 、 1 0 年 期 美 债 收 益 率 升 破 4 . 5 % 关 口 。 | < w | 美国国债 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称▼ | 买入 | 卖出 | | 30Y 美国国 | 4.9624 | 4.9593 | | 30YRBOND.GB | | | | M | | | | 20Y 美国国 | 4.9951 | 4.9913 | | 20YRBOND.GB | | | | M | | | | 10Y 美国国 | 4.5323 | 4.5303 | | 10YRNOTE.GB | | | | M | | | | 7Y 美国国债 | 4.349 | 4.3437 | | 7YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 5Y 美国国债 | 4.1651 | 4.1615 | | 5YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 3Y 美国国债 | 4.0487 | 4.0459 | | 3YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 2Y 美国国债 | 4.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are emerging as an unexpected ally in reinforcing the dominance of the US dollar amidst global de-dollarization discussions, with significant implications for international finance and economic sovereignty in Europe [1][13]. Group 1: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The total value of stablecoins in circulation has surpassed $200 billion, with monthly transaction volumes reaching several hundred billion dollars, providing a digital alternative to traditional currencies [2]. - Deutsche Bank's research indicates that stablecoins have evolved from niche tools to mainstream financial infrastructure, with the market size projected to grow from $20 billion in 2020 to $246 billion by May 2025 [6]. - The transaction volume of stablecoins has increased by 598% since 2020, with 2024 projections estimating $27.6 trillion in transactions, surpassing traditional payment giants like Visa and Mastercard [8]. Group 2: European Concerns - The widespread adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins in Europe poses a threat to the European Central Bank's ability to manage the eurozone economy, potentially undermining monetary policy effectiveness [2]. - Concerns arise regarding financial stability risks, as European businesses and households earning in euros but transacting in dollar stablecoins may face currency mismatches if the euro depreciates [2]. - The limited market share of euro-pegged stablecoins, which account for only 0.24% of the total stablecoin market, results in higher transaction costs and reduced liquidity [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Adoption - The regulatory landscape for stablecoins differs significantly between the EU and the US, with the EU's MiCA regulations imposing strict controls, while the US lacks comprehensive legislation, fostering innovation and expansion [5]. - Major companies like Visa, Shopify, Gucci, and PayPal are increasingly adopting stablecoins for transactions, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance [10][11]. - A Visa survey revealed that users prefer stablecoins over traditional banking due to higher yields (45%), greater efficiency (41%), and lower intervention risks (39%) [11]. Group 4: Strategic Asset and Dollar Dominance - Stablecoins are becoming strategic assets, with 83% pegged to the US dollar, and Tether being one of the largest holders of US Treasury securities [12][14]. - The demand for reserve assets is evident, with Tether's reserves projected to grow significantly, reinforcing the dollar's position in the global economy [14]. - The potential passage of the GENIUS Act could lead to a tenfold increase in stablecoin supply by 2028, further entrenching the dollar's dominance in the foreign exchange market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that the U.S. and its hegemonic policies are the root cause of Iran's economic difficulties, attributing the country's challenges to over 40 years of U.S. sanctions, pressure, and threats [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has been obstructing Iran's development through sanctions and military threats over the past four decades [1] - The U.S. aims to impose a non-independent and compliant regime on Iran, which contradicts the dignity of the Iranian people [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Zarif, stated that the economic difficulties faced by Iran are rooted in the United States' hegemonic policies, which have hindered Iran's development for over 40 years through sanctions and threats [1] Group 1: U.S. Policies and Iran's Economic Situation - Zarif emphasized that U.S. sanctions and military threats are the primary causes of Iran's economic struggles, asserting that the U.S. aims to impose a submissive regime on Iran, which undermines the dignity of the Iranian people [1] - He criticized the U.S. for ignoring Israel's actions in the region while portraying Iran as a threat, labeling this as a form of deception and a transfer of blame [1] Group 2: Diplomatic Engagements - Zarif mentioned that discussions between Iran and Russia are ongoing, with plans for a visit by President Putin to Iran as part of a long-term strategy [1] - He indicated that Iran is open to dialogue with the European Union while continuing indirect negotiations with the U.S., with the next round of talks scheduled for the 26th in Istanbul [1] Group 3: U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump expressed a desire to reach an agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program but threatened to impose maximum pressure if Iran's leadership refuses, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports to zero [1]

Core Viewpoint - The warning from Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data, indicates that the recent rebound of the US dollar index is merely a "bear market rally," driven by the structural erosion of the dollar's dominance due to disruptive interventions in the global trade system by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Flow Reversal - Long-term capital flows are reversing, with sovereign funds, pension funds, and multinational corporate treasury managers indicating a systemic reduction in the $32 trillion dollar asset allocation accumulated over the past decade [3]. - Although these investors have not yet taken substantial action, they are waiting for the right moment to reduce their dollar exposure, which could lead to significant market shifts [3]. - The dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of over 5% this year, despite a temporary rise to a monthly high of 105.8 due to easing US-China trade tensions [3]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The ongoing impact of tariff policies has led to three major chain reactions: a decrease in dollar settlement demand due to multinational supply chain restructuring, inflationary pressures forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive rates, and increased geopolitical risk premiums driving funds towards alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [4]. - The global dollar reserve share has decreased from a peak of 65% in 2016 to 59%, with a notable correlation between this decline and tariff volatility [4]. - Major creditor nations, including Japan and China, have seen the largest reductions in US Treasury holdings since the financial crisis, indicating a pronounced trend towards de-dollarization in Asia [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The timeframe for potential pressure on the dollar is projected to be around the end of Q3, as inflationary pressures from tariffs ease, allowing the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [4]. - The combination of structural capital outflows and cyclical easing policies could lead to significant volatility in the dollar index, potentially in double-digit percentages [4]. - The decline of dollar dominance is expected to occur gradually through systematic reductions by long-term investors rather than through sudden crises, as the largest asset owners begin to vote with their feet [5].