Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1201.73 tons on August 15, a decrease of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3381.70 per ounce on August 15, down 0.02%, with an intraday high of $3394.80 and a low of $3377.70 [1][2] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are rising, while concerns about tariff-related inflation persist [2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and import prices increased in July, making the upcoming Jackson Hole central bank policy symposium a focal point for the week [2] - India's Prime Minister Modi's proposed reduction in consumption tax is expected to boost the economy without harming government finances, potentially alleviating the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 15, the gold ETF holdings increased by 4.01 tons to a total of 965.37 tons [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,335.69 per ounce on August 15, with a daily increase of 0.91%, reaching a high of $3,348.74 and a low of $3,331.63 during the day [1] Group 2 - Current spot gold is trading around $3,344.16 per ounce, showing an increase of approximately 0.25%, after previously dropping to the lowest level since August 1 at $3,323.43 [3] - December futures for U.S. gold rose by 0.18% to $3,389.10, supported by a weak U.S. dollar index [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential territorial exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal and uncertainty from the U.S. canceling trade talks with India, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates starting in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Group 1: Economic Predictions - Nomura's economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also for a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, although there is disagreement among economists regarding the timing of these cuts [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The current USD index is at 97.86, with a slight increase of 0.02% from an opening price of 97.80 [1] - The 20-period moving average (97.5513) and the 50-period moving average (97.7919) are converging, indicating short-term bullish sentiment, but the price has not effectively broken through the resistance at the 50-period moving average [1] - The RSI indicator is at 71.91, indicating an overbought condition, and a potential "divergence" pattern is forming, where the price reaches a new high while the RSI does not [1]

道明仍预计美联储总共将降息六次，每次幅度25个基点，最终利率为3%。具体为今年降息三次，明年 每季度一次，直至9月末；此前该行的预期是今年降息两次、明年降息四次。道明证券的策略师 OscarMunoz和GennadiyGoldberg在报告中表示："鉴于劳动力市场状况减弱的迹象，我们认为今日的通 胀数据可能会促使几位在下一步政策路径上仍持观望态度的美联储官员改变看法"。他们预计，美联储 主席鲍威尔将在下周的杰克逊霍尔讲话中"传达出美联储倾向于9月开始货币宽松的立场"。道明策略团 队还将他们对2025年末5年期美债收益率的预测从3.70%下调至3.65%。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.87，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为97.80。根据上周公布的美 国7月CPI报告，道明证券策略师预测，美联储将更早开始降息，时间由10月提前至9月。 从美元指数(DXY)的图表来看，当前价格依旧处于下降通道内。布林带显示价格前期已经触及上轨 98.66附近并遭遇强烈回调，当前价格再次回落至98.00下方。随着价格逐步接近下轨97.60区域，市场对 该位置的支撑力度充满疑问。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price was under pressure, with New York gold falling below the $3,400 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and the Russia-Ukraine situation over the weekend was negative for the gold price. Technically, New York gold was at the high end of the trading range since the second quarter, and there was strong willingness among long positions to liquidate [3][27]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut may increase as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is positive for the gold price. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21st to 23rd, and attention can be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell [3][27]. - Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From August 8th to August 15th, COMEX gold decreased by 2.21% from $3,458.20 to $3,381.70, COMEX silver decreased by 1.27% from $38.51 to $38.02, SHFE gold main contract decreased by 1.52% from 787.80 to 775.80, and SHFE silver main contract decreased by 0.80% from 9,278.00 to 9,204.00. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42% from 98.26 to 97.85, the 10-year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.07 from 1.88 to 1.95, the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% from 6,389.45 to 6,449.80, and the US crude oil continuous decreased by 0.33% from 63.35 to 63.14. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.95% from 89.80 to 88.95, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.73% from 84.91 to 84.29. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5.73 from 959.64 to 965.37, and the iShare Gold ETF increased by 0.68 from 452.61 to 453.29 [8] 2. Gold Price Reached a High and Then Fell - Last week, the gold price was under pressure and declined. On one hand, US President Trump refuted rumors about gold tariffs; on the other hand, the expectation of the US-Russia meeting led to a relaxation of geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the gold price reached a high and then fell, and New York gold was still in the trading range since the second quarter, facing significant technical pressure [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of August 12th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,079 contracts, short positions increased by 3,486 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 7,565 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16] - Recently, the changes in precious metal ETFs have been relatively small [18] - Last week, the gold-silver ratio decreased as the gold price weakened [21] - Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased, while the 2-year US Treasury yield remained stable, and the 10-2 year spread widened [22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating that the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]

Financial Market Performance - The European industrial production showed weakness in Q2, while the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a decline in investor confidence in August. The investor confidence index in Europe fell again, with institutional investors showing stronger confidence than individual investors [1] - Following the appreciation of the euro against the dollar in May-June 2025, the dollar index rebounded in July, but uncertainty in US economic data increased in August, leading to a rise in the euro to 1.17 against the dollar by August 15 [1] - Expectations of increased defense spending in Germany and other countries are anticipated to boost the Eurozone economy, alongside improved expectations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Bond Market Analysis - The European bond market continues to exhibit a bear flattening trend, with 10-year government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France remaining relatively high. In August, the yield spread on government bonds widened slightly [2] - Concerns over potential inflation fluctuations and uncertainties regarding US tariff agreements are driving the widening of bond spreads, while the European Central Bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025 [2] Stock Market Performance - Since April, the UK stock market has shown stable growth, with the German stock market performing well since the beginning of the year. European bank stocks have recently led the market [3] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index has seen a cumulative increase of 24.6% over the past quarter, driven by the return of overseas funds to the European market and the resilience of the European economy [3][4] - The UK FTSE 100 index reached a record high on August 15, supported by economic resilience and service sector growth [4] Sector Performance - In the past two weeks, large-cap value stocks in banking and energy sectors have performed well, while sectors like biotechnology, transportation, food, and airlines have also shown strong performance. The AI technology sector, however, faced pressure [5] - Current valuations for major indices in the UK, France, and Germany are around 17-20 times PE, close to historical averages. In comparison, the S&P 500 index stands at 29 times, significantly higher than European indices [5] - The European stock market is expected to have allocation value and potential for growth in 2025, supported by active fiscal policies and a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 million, marking the first increase since March [1]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $126 million, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $487 million [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors reversing from net selling to net buying of $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in long-term US securities was $192.3 billion, driven primarily by private foreign investors who net bought $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Implications - A report suggests that if the momentum in US stocks weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased investment in US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.36% to 97.8509, indicating a strengthening of non-US currencies against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.48% against the dollar, reaching 1.1704 [1] - The British pound rose by 0.19% to 1.3556 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.18% to 0.6508 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen saw a decline of 0.39% against the dollar, with a rate of 147.1630 [1] - The Canadian dollar remained stable against the dollar at 1.3819 [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.09% against the dollar, reaching 0.8068 [1]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 美国抵押贷款利率创四个月最大降幅（单周降10基点至6.67%），叠加美财长表态暗示9月或降息50基点，美元指数走弱支撑贵金属。现货贴水4.1元/克反映实物需求平 稳，地缘政策扰动（如美俄资源合作动向）加剧避险情绪，基本面利多因素主导短期走势。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

近期，受美联储降息预期升温等原因推动，美元重回偏弱态势。嘉盛集团资深分析师Fawad Razaqzada 表示，在疲软的就业报告、符合预期的CPI数据公布之后，美联储越来越有可能在9月扣动降息的"扳 机"。对于美元来说，这可能意味着年底前的表现会更加疲软——除非其他主要央行采取更快的行动来 放松政策。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）8月15日，美元指数震荡下行，盘中跌破98关口。Wind数据显示， 截至北京时间14时05分，美元指数报97.9879，日内下跌0.22%。 ...