报道提到，贝森特同时重申此前表态，即政府"停摆"导致对农民的援助停滞，并补充说美国财政部的官方经济数据也将在政府"停摆"结束后公布。 "事态正变得严重，它正在开始影响实体经济。"贝森特在接受美国福克斯商业频道采访时说，但他没有提供更多细节。 由于两党在医保相关福利支出等方面存在分歧，美国国会参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结束前通过新的临时拨款法案，维持政府正常运转的资金耗尽。10 月1日起，美联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。截至10月13日，"停摆"已进入第13天。不过，共和党和民主党仍忙于互相攻讦。法新社报道，许多国会议员 期望特朗普能够介入，打破两党对峙僵局，推动政府"重新开门"。但特朗普当地时间12日启程前往中东，两党继续相互"甩锅"，同时又有一批景点开始关 闭。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】据路透社报道，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间13日表示，随着美国政府"停摆"进入第13天，美国经济已经开始遭受影响。 路透社称，贝森特补充说，为了向美军官兵发放薪资，美国政府不得不暂停向其他联邦雇员及机构拨款。 "我们不得不调整各项安排。我们不得不让华盛顿特区及全国范围内的工作人员休假。"贝森特说。 ...

Core Insights - The global gold market experienced a significant surge during the 2025 "Double Festival" holiday, with London gold prices rising nearly $200 in a week, breaking the $4000 per ounce barrier for the first time [1][4][6] - Domestic gold prices in China also saw a sharp increase, with major brands reporting price hikes of around 46 to 50 yuan per gram compared to the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of nearly 400 yuan per gram [1][7] Gold Price Surge - The price of London gold rose from $3857.83 per ounce on September 30 to $4040.42 per ounce by October 8, marking a historic breakthrough [1][4] - COMEX gold futures also saw a similar rise, increasing from $3874.3 per ounce to $4060.6 per ounce during the same period [4][6] Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to factors such as increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government shutdown [3][6] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement as central banks maintain significant net purchases of gold [6][7] Stock Market Reaction - Following the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3900 points, with the precious metals sector experiencing a collective surge, with several gold-related stocks hitting their daily limit [4][6] - The overall precious metals sector saw a significant increase of 9.28% on the first trading day after the holiday [4] Consumer Behavior - The rapid increase in gold prices has led to changes in consumer purchasing behavior, with some consumers hesitant to buy at current prices, while others are considering selling their holdings [9] - Retailers are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to the market changes, with some indicating that the one-price gold jewelry may soon see a price adjustment [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are expected to move up in the short - term with a step - up trend in the long - term. Silver prices are anchored to gold price trends. The short - term rise in gold is driven by increased short - term risk aversion, enhanced risk - hedging attributes, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The silver market shows slight increases in net long positions and ETF holdings, along with a slight decrease in visible inventories [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.99%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.84% [2]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, risk aversion has increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of US economic stagflation has risen, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is being realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation have increased market uncertainty. Fed officials' warnings about the labor market and support for rate cuts, along with disappointing employment data and in - line inflation data, have strengthened the bet on further rate cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 rate cuts this year. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, ratios, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [3][4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Data Summary**: There are detailed data on international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, open interest, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and ETF holdings, as well as the net position rankings of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange [7][8]. Key Fundamental Data - **Federal Reserve - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $66416.68 billion. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.77%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, and US Treasury spreads have changed to varying degrees [9]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are data on US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and risk - hedging and commodity - related indices [11][13].

Group 1 - The media is criticized for sensationalism, reporting on the liquidation of long and short positions in a misleading manner during price fluctuations [1] - There is a lack of consensus among major financial institutions regarding gold price predictions, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,900 and Citigroup predicting a drop to $3,800, causing confusion among investors [2] - Since August 15, gold prices have risen from $3,200, showing strong upward momentum without significant pullbacks, with a potential breakthrough of $4,060 [3] Group 2 - Recent market volatility, driven by Trump's trade policies, has led to significant declines in cryptocurrencies, while gold has remained resilient, with investors increasingly bullish on gold [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and potential government shutdown are key factors influencing market sentiment, with expectations of rate cuts likely to support gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with support levels identified at $4,010 and targets set between $4,060 and $4,080 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of US trade policy, weak employment market concerns, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, the US federal government shutdown crisis, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 897.74 yuan/gram, with a change of -13.64 yuan compared to the previous day and 44.84 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 71,242.00, and the open interest was 211,162.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was -117.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of -87.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 450.00 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 605,570.00, and the open interest was 544,232.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,035.50 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 154.70 US dollars compared to the previous day and 44.40 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 273,357.00, and the open interest was 379,094.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.52 US dollars/ounce, with a change of -0.14 US dollars compared to the previous day and 0.65 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 141,909.00, and the open interest was 128,281.00 [1] Important Information - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed down to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder impressed Bessent. Fed Governor Waller is most worried about the employment market and is open to a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] - For the first time in modern US history, the White House "steward" announced that the Trump administration has started permanent layoffs. The release time of the US September CPI report is set for October 24, 9 days later than the interest rate decision [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly establish long positions after price pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 790 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 940 - 1,010 yuan/gram; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 30 - 37 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 57 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,200 - 8,500 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 13,000 - 14,800 yuan/ten grams [1]

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, due to dissatisfaction with rare earth controls[1] - The geopolitical pressure on the U.S. has eased following a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Palestine conflict, allowing Trump to refocus on U.S.-China trade[1] - The U.S. government is still in a shutdown, with predictions that it may last until at least October 15, 2025, prompting Trump to shift attention to external conflicts[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, U.S. stock markets, copper, oil, and the dollar index all declined, while gold prices increased by 3.38% to $4017 per ounce[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8.70 basis points to 4.032%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.43 basis points to 3.501%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively, indicating a strong market reaction to the tariff threat[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The impact of the new tariffs on U.S.-China trade is expected to be limited due to a prior rush in trade activity earlier in the year and the upcoming seasonal slowdown[1] - Inflation risks are rising again, particularly for imported goods from China, which may complicate future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[1] - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions show a divide on future interest rate paths, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation risks[2] Group 4: Future Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential retaliatory measures from China and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors[3] - The upcoming APEC meeting may provide a platform for high-level discussions between the U.S. and China, which could influence market sentiment[3] - Long-term, the experience from the 2018-2019 trade conflicts suggests that tariff threats will likely continue and may fluctuate[3]

当地时间9日，美国国会参议院第七次尝试表决通过临时拨款法案，但共和党和民主党分别提出的临时拨款法案草案仍然均未获通过，尽快结束政府"停 摆"的努力再次失败。 美国政府停摆进入第10天，对美国社会各方面影响已经开始显现。受影响最大的是哪些领域？美国政府关门还会持续多久？如果问题迟迟得不到解决，美国 还会受到怎样的冲击？ 民生领域受影响较大 外交学院国际关系研究所教授 李海东：民生和经济领域受到的影响尤为明显。在交通、旅游、基建等领域，美国联邦政府诸多职能"停摆"，给民众生活带 来不便。同时，联邦政府关门致使许多民众无法及时获得工资等经济收益，打击了他们的消费信心。民众支出减少，经济活力也随之降低，对经济造成了较 大冲击。 若长时间"停摆" 将产生巨大反噬效应 外交学院国际关系研究所教授 李海东：美国政府关门会持续多久，存在很强的不确定性。目前，民主党和共和党都没有表现出尽快妥协达成共识的迹象。 若因拨款问题导致政府长时间"停摆"，将在政治上产生巨大的反噬效应。越来越多的民众会对政府和建制派精英表达不满，这种不满情绪的加剧会使美国政 治朝着更强的民粹化方向发展。届时，美国国内政治暴力事件增多，这不仅会让美国自身变 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording their largest single-day drops since April 10 [5][6] - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.56% to 22,204.43 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.71% to 6,552.51 points, marking a weekly decline of 2.43% for the S&P 500 and 2.53% for the Nasdaq [5][6] - Major technology stocks saw substantial losses, with the "Big Seven" tech index down by 3.65% [7] Individual Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks included Tesla down over 5%, Amazon down 5.06%, and Nvidia down 4.92% [7][8] - Alibaba's stock fell by 8.45%, while other Chinese stocks like Bilibili and Baidu also experienced significant drops [9][10] Commodity Market - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with U.S. crude oil futures down 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude down nearly 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [12] - Gold prices increased by over 1%, reaching a high of $4,022.90 per ounce [13] Government Employment and Economic Outlook - The Trump administration has begun large-scale layoffs of federal employees, with 200,000 already reduced this year and an additional 100,000 expected by year-end [17][18] - There is a growing belief among traders that the U.S. government shutdown may last until the end of October or longer, with probabilities for a shutdown exceeding 30 days increasing [18] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to consider further interest rate cuts in response to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [18]

新华社华盛顿10月10日电 美国联邦政府"停摆"10日进入第十天。白宫管理和预算办公室在社交媒 体上宣布，联邦政府裁员已经开始。据美媒报道，此次针对联邦雇员的裁员可能影响广。美国政府雇员 联合会称"已经提起诉讼"。 10月10日，在美国首都华盛顿，美国总统特朗普返回白宫。新华社记者胡友松摄 雇员联合会提起诉讼 白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特在社媒上发布的消息只有一句话，未透露裁员具体人数、具体部 门。据美国媒体报道，此次针对联邦雇员的裁员可能人数多、影响广。国土安全部、卫生与公共服务 部、财政部等均有裁员计划。 美国政府雇员联合会在社媒上转发沃特这条帖文，称"已经提起诉讼"。该组织全国主席埃弗里特· 凯利在一份声明中表示，特朗普政府以"停摆"为借口，"非法解雇"数以千计为全国各地社区提供关键服 务的雇员，这令人耻辱。"联邦雇员厌倦了被政治人物用作政治和个人利益的棋子。国会是时候履行职 责、立即协商结束这场'停摆'了。" 特朗普和白宫官员先前多次表示，联邦政府一旦"停摆"就会裁员，并称民主党人应对此负责。民主 党领导人则认为，共和党人试图在这场预算争端中把联邦雇员当作棋子，并称这是一种恐吓和威胁手 段。 美媒：解 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on October 10, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.9%, the Nasdaq dropping by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 2.71%, marking the largest single-day drop since April [1][3] - Major technology stocks also saw substantial losses, with Nvidia's market value evaporating by $228.7 billion (approximately 1.63 trillion yuan) in one night [4] Asset Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by over 6%, with notable declines in popular Chinese stocks such as NIO and Baidu, which dropped more than 10% and 8% respectively [4][3] - Gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.58% to $4,035.50 per ounce, while international oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil dropping by 5.32% to $58.24 per barrel [9][14] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields collectively decreased, with the 2-year yield falling by 1.63 basis points and the 10-year yield down by 1.95 basis points [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.56%, closing at 98.977, reflecting a broader trend of currency fluctuations amid market volatility [6] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which entered its tenth day, has led to concerns about economic data availability and potential impacts on market sentiment [7][15] - Analysts suggest that while the stock market may react negatively in the short term, historical data indicates that the S&P 500 has shown resilience during previous government shutdowns, with an average gain of 2.91% [16][17]