Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, with market expectations for further rate cuts this year diminishing [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped by 3.1%, falling below $108,000, before the decline moderated [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] Group 2 - Markets' CFO Charlie Sherry noted that Powell's comments triggered some risk-averse sentiment, compounded by the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, which led to market volatility [3] - While technology stocks are rising, cryptocurrencies have not followed suit, indicating relative weakness and hesitation in digital assets [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest copper fundamentals data, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, spreads, etc., and also lists recent macro and industry news, with a copper trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Copper Fundamentals Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89,130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%; the closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk yesterday was 11,090 with a daily increase of 0.55% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index yesterday was 347,234, a decrease of 49,131 from the previous day, and the position was 617,144, an increase of 22,023; the trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 29,130, an increase of 7,363, and the position was 328,000, an increase of 4,765 [1]. - **Inventory and Changes**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 35,745, a decrease of 101; the LME Copper inventory was 135,350, an increase of 775, and the注销仓单 ratio was 10.84%, an increase of 2.54% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 19.54, an increase of 4.30 from the previous day; the Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 78,600, a decrease of 300; the spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 60, a decrease of 5 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and ended QT, but Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest - rate cut led the market's probability of a December rate cut to drop from 95% to 65%. Also, Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump [1]. - **Industry News**: Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range; Indonesia may allow Amman Mineral International to export copper concentrates; Trump overturned a pollution - prevention regulation on copper smelters; Anglo American's Q3 copper production this year was 184,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, but the production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year to 526,000 tons; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% due to lower ore grades at some mines [1][3]. c. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].

又一轮"降息潮"来袭。 北京时间10月30日，在美联储宣布降息25个基点后，阿联酋央行、卡塔尔央行、巴林央行、沙特央行集 体宣布降息25个基点。稍早前，加拿大央行也宣布降息25个基点。 值得注意的是，美联储未来的降息路径存在着较大的变数。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，对 于12月应如何行动，官员们存在明显分歧，12月再次降息并非板上钉钉。有分析指出，美联储未来货币 政策的路径充满了高度不确定性。据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率 降至67.8%。 北京时间10月29日深夜，加拿大央行宣布，因美国关税带来的冲击，下调政策利率25个基点至2.25%。 这是加拿大央行连续第二次会议降息，该国利率目前处于2022年7月以来最低水平。 受美国关税政策的冲击，加拿大经济在二季度萎缩了1.6%，市场正在担忧三季度可能难以回正。加拿 大央行预测，第三季度年化增长为0.5%，第四季度为1%。 加拿大央行官员们在利率决议中写道："加拿大经济正面临艰难的转型。贸易冲突造成的结构性损害降 低了经济的供给能力并增加了成本，这限制了货币政策在维持低通胀的同时刺激需求的作用。" 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·马 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver is expected to rebound with fluctuations. Copper's price increase is restricted by the hawkish outlook on interest rate cuts. Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound. Lead's price is supported by the continuous decrease in inventory. Tin's performance is subject to macro - economic impacts. Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 910.88 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 910.92 with a night - session increase of 0.69%. Comex Gold 2512 decreased by 0.67% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 3, Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 232,686, and Shanghai gold inventory increased by 801 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet in Busan, South Korea on Thursday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, ended balance - sheet reduction in December, and Powell dampened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut at the end of the year [4][7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11338 with a daily increase of 2.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11265.00 with a night - session increase of 0.64%. Comex Silver 2512 increased by 0.29% yesterday. The trend strength is - 1 [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: SLV Silver ETF's holdings remained unchanged, Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, from the day before yesterday) decreased by 4,494,628, and Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 3599 [4]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 88,710 with a daily increase of 1.99%, and the night - session closing price was 89130 with a night - session increase of 0.47%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.55%. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 101, and LME copper inventory increased by 775. The注销仓单 ratio of LME copper increased by 2.54% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Despite the Fed's interest rate cut and end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter, and Anglo American's Q3 copper production was higher than the same period last year, but the cumulative production in the first three quarters decreased by 9% year - on - year. Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22430 with a 0.54% increase, while the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [11]. - **News**: The leaders of China and the United States will meet, which is considered important for stabilizing Sino - US relations [11]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged at 17355, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.07%. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 100, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4800 [14]. - **News**: The Fed's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut reduced the market's probability of a December rate cut from 95% to 65%, and the leaders of China and the United States will meet [15]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 286,720 with a 1.25% increase, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.29%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.61%. The trend strength is 0 [17]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 73, and LME tin inventory increased by 130 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, including Sino - US leader meeting, Fed's interest rate decision, etc. [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Aluminum is expected to trade within a range, alumina is expected to have a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [21][23]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 61.60 million tons, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed continued to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December. South Korea and the United States reached a trade agreement, with South Korea promising to invest $350 billion in the United States [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downward potential but lacks upward driving force. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [24]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area, expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a new regulation on mining business plans and budgets [24][25].

其美联储目前降息落地，金价回落完毕，日内将再度等待中美会晤而再度利空金价回落一次，而使得利 空继续消化，那么短期来看，金价偏向筑底盘整，多头也将随时回归，之后唯一剩下的风险利空事件就 是美国政府停摆的结束。 今日周四，黄金开盘再度先行走强，继续受到止跌形态的看涨买盘，以及受到昨日特朗普：未能协调好 会晤时间、美国宣布新一轮对俄制裁，重点针对两家石油公司等产生的避险情绪，同时，虽然鲍威尔直 言12月降息不是板上钉钉，但对市场来说，也是概率很高，要不然怎么不说12月降息概率很低。并且美 联储米兰还支持降息50BP，故此对于后市来说，金价仍处于降息周期中，而当下只需等待短线的利空 出尽。 而停摆的打压也是一时的，所以，当下而言，激进者可开始选择看涨入场，而稳健者可待下周或者触及 60日均线支撑后再度入场看涨。 日图；金价昨日收取倒垂上影线形态，再度展现止跌信号和止跌看涨预期，虽然附图指标维持空头信 号，主图走势处于中轨下方，空头占据优势，但其ZZ指标显示触底，K线又连续收取止跌形态，布林带 趋向缩口，这暗示后市方向仍偏向上行，下方空间有限，所以，当下，要么维持筑底震荡之后再度攀 升，要么进一步走低收取触底回升或触及 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 11193, with an opening price of 11427 and a current price of 11171, reflecting a decrease of 0.20% [1] - The highest price reached today was 11438, while the lowest was 11122, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The analysis suggests that there is potential for silver to rise towards 11700, with short-term trading opportunities available [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking a significant support for easing policies [2] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that this could be the last rate cut in 2025, with future policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data [2] - The current policy rate has decreased by 150 basis points from last year's peak, entering what some decision-makers consider a "neutral" zone [2]

韩美敲定贸易协议，韩国承诺3500亿美元对美投资，换取汽车15%关税、半导体产业关税优待。 昨日，贵金属价格普遍偏弱，COMEX黄金期货跌1.04%报3941.7美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.1%报47.275 美元/盎司。沪金、沪银日内有所回落，沪金再次测试900元/克的支撑。 美联储10月会议宣布继续降息25基点，12月结束缩表，两票委反对利率决议。 鲍威尔表示，12月再降息并非板上钉钉，委员会分歧大，就业市场仍在降温，通胀短期有上行压力。 美加贸易谈判中止后，特朗普与卡尼首次会面。加拿大总理卡尼表示，他与美国总统特朗普当地时间29日在韩 国进行了"非常好"的谈话。 10月议息会议结果偏鹰，鲍威尔暗示12月降息并非定局，且联储内部存在分歧，部分官员主张等待一个周期再 做决定。会议结果推动美元和美债利率反弹，利空金银。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of interest rate cuts is emerging globally, initiated by the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points, followed by similar actions from several central banks in the Middle East and Canada, indicating a shift in monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, but future rate paths remain uncertain, with significant internal disagreements among officials regarding potential actions in December [2][11]. - The probability of another rate cut in December has decreased to 67.8%, down from 95.3% prior to the recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [11]. Global Central Bank Responses - Following the Fed's announcement, the central banks of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia also cut their benchmark rates by 25 basis points [4][5][6]. - The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting with a rate cut, as the Canadian economy faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs [7]. Economic Context - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, raising concerns about the potential for a negative growth in the third quarter [7]. - The Bank of Canada highlighted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition due to structural damages from trade conflicts, which have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy [7][8]. Future Outlook - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 2%, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations have diminished due to political pressures [9]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts may be more nuanced than the market currently anticipates, with strong consumer spending and economic growth potentially influencing the pace of future cuts [12].

今日周四(10月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于47.42一线上方，今日开盘于47.51美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报47.51美元/盎司，下跌0.02%，最高触及47.95美元/盎司，最低下探47.24美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美联储正在密切关注可能正在恶化的就业市场状况，因为低收 入家庭正出现更多压力迹象。鲍威尔指出，对于近期裁员公告数量上升的情况，"我们正在非常仔细地 关注"，因为这可能会削弱就业创造能力。 不过他补充说，目前这些裁员公告尚未导致失业救济申请数量上升。他还表示："我们认为确实存在这 样一种情况——高收入家庭的状况良好、支出强劲，而其他群体则正面临日益严峻的挑战。 另外"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos评美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，他说："鲍威尔的新闻发布会表明， FOMC整体上并不认同市场此前对12月降息的高度定价。"鲍威尔表示："对于12月如何行动，我们的看 法存在很大分歧。"他强调，12月的降息"不应被视为已成定局。 事实上，远非如此。"这已经超出了他们通常所说的免责声明，即"政策并非按照预设路径 ...

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...