2025.06. 15 本文字数：2318，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 魏中原 2015年6月12日上证指数创下历史次高的5178.19点。回望5178点以来，行业指数价格超越2015年 年中最高点的行业寥寥无几，沪指在不同阶段由不同行业催化出结构性行情，核心波动范围为2700 点-3600点。 近十年间，A股经历了估值回归、产业结构升级，指数虽未重返高点，但一批真正具备成长性的企业 穿越牛熊。 第一财经记者梳理统计发现，以申万一级行业31项指数为基准（2015年6月12日至2025年6月13日 收盘，后复权计算），表现最突出的三大行业是食品饮料、家用电器、银行，其余28个行业指数还 没超过5178点时的点位。 行业与个股的分化是过去十年的主旋律，并不是每只食品饮料、家电或银行股都能跑赢指数或平均水 准，激励的竞争与行业格局改写过程中，龙头股才能收获超额收益，其盈利能力（ROE）和增长质 量（现金流）是核心估值的标尺。 十年间，通信、电子、生物医药、机械设备等一级行业的170余只细分龙头股，实现累计涨幅超 300%。领涨市场的行业与个股，其背后是宏观经济转型与产业结构升级，记者进一步统计，近十年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant structural differentiation over the past decade, with banking stocks outperforming expectations and leading the market recovery since the peak in 2015 [1][8]. Industry Performance - Over the past ten years, the A-share market has seen valuation corrections and industrial upgrades, with the index not returning to its peak but a number of genuinely growth-oriented companies have thrived [2]. - The top three performing sectors since June 12, 2015, are food and beverage, home appliances, and banking, while most other sectors have not surpassed their 2015 highs [2]. - The food and beverage sector has shown resilience due to its essential consumption nature, with leading companies significantly outperforming major indices [3][5]. Stock Performance - The top 20 stocks in the food and beverage sector have shown remarkable growth, with Salted Fish (盐津铺子) leading with a 1,430.52% increase, followed by Shanxi Fenjiu (山西汾酒) and Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) with increases of over 600% and 629.72% respectively [4][5]. - In the home appliance sector, Midea Group (美的集团) has led with a 292.31% increase since 2015, while over 60% of home appliance stocks have seen declines over the same period [6]. - The banking sector has seen a significant rise, with the banking index reaching a historical high of 7,237.72 points, up 11.66% year-to-date and 61.4% since last year [9][10]. Market Trends - The banking sector has shown less differentiation compared to other sectors, with 39 out of 42 banking stocks rising this year [9]. - The preference for high dividend yields has driven the banking sector's performance, with the index recovering losses from previous years [9][12]. - Despite the strong performance of banking stocks, the allocation of funds to this sector has been relatively low, with a significant shift towards emerging industries since 2010 [10].

本周上证指数跌 0.25%，沪深 300 跌 0.25%，恒生指数涨 0.42%。小盘股涨幅较 大，本周全 A 日均交易额 13716 亿，环比上周有所上升。在此，我们强调：6 月大 盘指数依然是在 407 黄金坑兑现后转入"震荡市"，临近震荡区间上沿就有回落压 力。中期来看，对于后续市场的三类预判：类比 2020 年（核心是由意外事件导致 中美欧政策步入同频共振政策周期，结构是以大盘成长为代表的核心资产占优）， 类比 2024 年（存在明确二次探底形成双底，结构是高股息为核心的杠铃策略）， 类比 2019 年（核心是新旧动能转换下大盘震荡呈现"俯卧撑"，结构上呈现消费+科 技"跷跷板"双轮动）。目前看"年初 AI 新科技 DeepSeek1.0"+"5 月军工科技 Deepseek2.0 时刻"+"创新药 Deepseek3.0 时刻"使得市场逐渐意识到"新胜于旧" 的定价思路，那么 A 股真有点像 2019 年了。 近期发生的一系列重大事件对于市场的影响值得探讨，总体而言虽然外部环境波谲 云诡，但对于 A 股资产定价并未造成明确"二次探底"风险。事实上，需明确：国内 5 月经济数据虽然显示内需孱弱，但在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector offers attractive income opportunities, with MPLX being a standout option for income investors due to its high yield and strong financial foundation [1][10]. Financial Performance - MPLX currently yields over 7%, significantly higher than the average energy stock yield of around 3% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.3% [1][10]. - The company generated nearly $1.5 billion in distributable cash flow in the first quarter, covering its distribution by 1.5 times [4]. - MPLX produced about $500 million in excess free cash flow during the same period, allowing it to cover organic capital spending comfortably [5]. Growth Potential - MPLX's adjusted EBITDA rose by 7% in the first quarter, while distributable cash flow increased by 8.5% [6]. - The company has achieved a nearly 7% compound annual growth rate in earnings and cash flow since 2021 [6]. - MPLX has increased its distribution at a 10.7% compound annual rate since 2021, including a 12.5% increase last year [7]. Future Investments - MPLX has several new investments planned, including the Traverse Pipeline, which is expected to enter commercial service in 2027, and multiple other projects with in-service dates through 2029 [8]. - The company anticipates mid-teen returns on these projects, supporting mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth [9]. - MPLX is actively using its strong balance sheet for acquisitions, including a $715 million purchase of the remaining 55% of the BANGL pipeline [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the A-share market is currently experiencing a cooling of market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite previously avoiding crises like the US debt situation and China-US tariff disputes [1][3] - The emotional cycle is entering its second half, with a potential market bottom expected to occur within approximately 10 trading days, often accompanied by sudden negative events [3][4] - The historical high dividend yield of the CSI 300 index indicates significant potential for future market rallies, similar to past bull markets [4][6] Group 2 - The CSI 300 index's dividend yield has reached a historical high, which is seen as a positive indicator for potential market performance [4][5] - A high dividend yield suggests a strong inverse relationship with stock price fluctuations, indicating that a stable dividend can lead to high potential returns [6][8] - The long-term return certainty of the stock market is emphasized, encouraging investors to remain focused on long-term gains rather than short-term market fluctuations [10]

Core Viewpoint - J.M. Smucker's stock has significantly declined following its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results and updated fiscal 2026 guidance, presenting a potential buying opportunity due to its high-yield dividend and attractive valuation [1][2]. Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by 3% year over year in Q4, but increased by 7% for the full fiscal year [4] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 2% to $10.12, with fiscal 2026 guidance expecting net sales growth of 2% to 4% and adjusted EPS to decline to between $8.50 and $9.50 [4] - Free cash flow (FCF) for fiscal 2025 was $816.6 million, covering $455.4 million in dividend payments, with expectations for FCF to rise to $875 million in fiscal 2026 [10][11] Pricing Strategy and Market Conditions - The company is facing record-high green coffee production costs, leading to planned price increases in May and August [5][6] - Price increases have been implemented across various product lines, including Uncrustables, which saw its first price hike in over three years [7] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment, which includes Hostess, has underperformed, with net sales down 26% year over year [9] Dividend Stability - J.M. Smucker has raised its dividend for 29 consecutive years, with a current yield of 4.6% due to the stock sell-off [11] - The company has a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, indicating strong potential to support its dividend payments [12] Valuation Metrics - The forward price-to-FCF ratio is 11.5, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio is 10.5, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to historical averages [13][14] - The company's market cap has fallen to $10.05 billion, with the Sweet Baked Snacks segment contributing only 12% of total net sales [9] Investment Opportunity - Despite the challenges, J.M. Smucker continues to generate substantial free cash flow and offers a reliable dividend, making it an attractive investment for the second half of 2025 [19]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 2.被投资企业股东会（或股东大会）利润分配决 议或公告、分配表； 3.被投资企业进行清算所得税处理的，留存被投 资企业填报的加盖主管税务机关受理章的《中华人民 共和国清算所得税申报表》及附表三《剩余财产计算 和分配明细表》复印件； 企业权益性投资取得股息、红利等收入，应以被 投资企业股东会或股东大会作出利润分配或转股决定 的日期，确定收入的实现。 三、留存备查资料 企业享受优惠事项采取"自行判别、申报享受、 相关资料留存备查"的办理方式。主要留存备查资料 有: 1.被投资企业的最新公司章程（企业在证券交易 市场购买上市公司股票获得股权的，提供相关记账凭 证、本公司持股比例以及持股时间超过12个月情况说 明）； 4.投资收益、应收股利科目明细账或按月汇总 表。 四、申报要求 企业在办理企业所得税预缴申报和年度纳税申报 时，通过填报申报表相关行次即可享受优惠。 预缴申报时，需要在《中华人民共和国企业所得 税月（季） 度预缴纳税申报表（A 类）》（A200000 表）第 7 行"减：免税收入、减计收入、加计扣除" 点击"增行"，在免税收入中选择"一般股息红利等 权益性投资收益免征企业所得税 ...

# 读者福利 ， 欢迎留言互动， 6 月 20 日前，平台随机从留言中选取 3 位读者获赠本期推 荐新书！ 01 《钱商：投资、决策与财富增长的9大思维》 [美]伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 [美]亚历克斯·邓 著 中信出版集团 出版 内容简介 一个人要想赚到钱，关键在于形成对投资和财富的正确认知，持续提升自己的钱 商。 作为世界上最成功的财富创造群体之一，风险投资人在资本市场上经历了无数次 探索与试错，逐步形成了一套高回报的思维模式。作为这个群体的一员，本书作 者通过多年的教学与研究将这些投资智慧系统化，帮助上千名学生在财富管理上 取得了实质性进展。基于这一成果，作者总结出风投式思维的九大核心原则，并 将之呈现在本书中。 本书清晰地展现了如何在复杂多变的市场环境中识别机会、规避风险并坚定追求 高回报。书中的九条风投式思维囊括了投资组合发现机会、风险管理、慧眼识人 和长期价值等方方面面每一条原则不仅着眼于财富增值，更帮助读者在面对不确 定性时具备冷静思考的智慧。 无论是刚入门的投资新手，还是期望提升财商的职业人士，这本书都将帮你掌握 金钱运转的核心法则，实现个人跃迁。 作者简介 伊利亚·斯特雷布拉耶夫 斯坦福大学商 ...

Group 1: Investment Opportunity - Citigroup offers a 2.8% yield, while Bank of Nova Scotia provides a significantly higher yield of 5.9%, making it an attractive investment option for those looking for income [1][5] - The recent 4% dividend hike from Bank of Nova Scotia indicates a return to dividend growth, which is a positive signal for investors [1][10] - An investment of $25,000 in Citigroup yields approximately $700 annually, whereas the same amount in Bank of Nova Scotia generates around $1,475 [6] Group 2: Bank Operations and Stability - Banks like Citigroup primarily take deposits and make loans, with additional services such as wealth management and investment banking layered on top [2] - Canadian banks, including Bank of Nova Scotia, operate under a highly regulated environment, which contributes to their stability and entrenched market positions [8] - Bank of Nova Scotia has maintained its dividend through economic downturns, showcasing its reliability and commitment to shareholders [9] Group 3: Growth Strategy and Challenges - Bank of Nova Scotia has shifted its growth strategy from focusing on Central and South America to increasing its presence in the U.S. market, indicating a strategic pivot [9][10] - Despite a challenging fiscal second quarter with declines in adjusted net income and return on equity, the bank's preemptive increase in reserves for bad debt reflects a conservative and cautious approach to financial management [11] - The bank's management is confident in its turnaround efforts, which is supported by the recent dividend increase, signaling financial strength and a positive outlook [12]

自2022年3月24日成立至2025年3月31日，中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起的份额净值增长率为36.85%， 业绩比较基准增长率为7.02%，跑赢业绩比较基准29.83%。相比红利贝塔所提供的收益，这只基金的超额 收益显然更应该被看到。 这几年，红利风格凭借长期稳健的表现，拥有了越来越多的粉丝。 但一只优秀的红利主题基金，收益来源显然不只是贝塔；只有当红利主题叠加显著超额能力的Buff，才会 创造近2年位列前1%（19/2987）的优秀业绩（排名数据来源：海通证券，具体分类为混合型-主动混合开 放型-强股混合型，近2年排名数据为19/2987，数据截至2025.3.31）。 在计算超额收益时，很多人会用中证红利指数作为参考；但如果要求更高，不妨以中证红利全收益指为参 考。当然，对持有人来说，体验更好的超额收益，是在没有显著放大波动的情况下获得的。 中泰红利优选一年持有混合发起 自成立以来业绩及同期指数表现 | 简称 | 中泰红利优选一年 | 中证红利指数 | | 中证红利全收益 中证红利低波 中证红利质量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持有混合发 ...