南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊 纽约报道 本次会议另一项重要决定是停止缩表。自2022年启动量化紧缩以来，美联储已经缩减约2万亿美元国债 与抵押贷款支持证券，使资产负债表规模降至6.6万亿美元，是2020年以来的最低水平。停止缩表意味 着银行体系超储压力有望缓解，但也意味着在经济数据不完整、通胀韧性尚存环境下，流动性将有所释 放，可能在中期带来资产价格的新平衡。 值得关注的是，政府停摆继续延长使得市场缺乏高质量宏观数据。例如，最新失业率仍停留在8月的 4.3%水平，而私营机构数据覆盖面较小、波动性较大，难以完全为政策决策提供支撑。这意味着未来 数周，美联储将面临"盲走"状态，市场波动或因此放大。 美国东部时间10月29日，美联储在结束最新一次议息会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基 点至3.75%—4%。这是继9月之后再次降息，显示美联储试图缓冲正在走弱的就业市场压力。与此同 时，美联储还宣布将于12月1日起正式停止缩减资产负债表，意味着自2022年启动的量化紧缩周期阶段 性结束，也象征着政策在流动性管理上出现重要拐点。 在政策声明中，美联储指出，美国就业增速明显放缓，就业风险在过去数月持续上升 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 鲍威尔打压市场对于12月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT，关于劳动力市场、通货膨胀率，美联储如何声明？ 对于未来的货币政策，机构如何解读？ 一图速览>> ● 美联储最新声明 美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态 ■ 12月降息"远非板上钉钉": 在本次会议的委员会讨论中,对 于12月份如何采取行动,存在着 裁然不同的意见 ...... 12月会议上是 否会进一步降息并非板上钉钉, 远非如此。 如果存在高度不确定性,那么这 可能成为我们谨慎行事、暂不采 取行动的理由。美联储必须等待 数据的发展。 ■ 美联储正"非常密切地"关 程裁员情况 机构解读 ■美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave: 在鲍威尔担任主席期间,美联储不 会再次降息。但很明显,除非数据 发出明确的信号,否则12月的决策 将比10月更加充满争议。 ■ 牛津经济研究院副首席经济学 家Michael Pearce: 很多公司在宣布不会进行大量招 聘,或者实际上正 ...

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 一图速览>> ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : | | Jan | Feb | 削一 Mar | Apr | May | -轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | (50) | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 | | 25 | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | 50 | | 25 | 25 | | 0000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 鲍威尔打压市场对于 12 月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October was expected, but Chairman Powell's remarks were notably hawkish, suggesting that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - CICC believes that the internal support for pausing rate cuts within the Federal Reserve is gaining traction [1] - Despite having some room for further easing, the pace of rate cuts may slow down, and overly optimistic expectations should be avoided [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The stimulative effect of the current round of rate cuts is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles, partly due to a significant reduction in the "refinancing effect" [1] - The Federal Reserve announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which CICC interprets as a technical consideration rather than a signal for major policy shifts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - With substantial room for policy rate reductions, the necessity for purchasing unconventional financial assets is deemed low [1]

鲍威尔还有哪些表态？对于未来货币政策，机构如何解读？一图速览>> 如果存在高度不确定性，那么这 可能成为我们谨慎行事、暂不采 取行动的理由。美联储必须等待 数据的发展。 ■ 美联储正"非常密切地"关 注裁员情况 很多公司在宣布不会进行大量招 聘,或者实际上正在裁员,而且 很多时候他们都在谈论人工智能 及其带来的影响。我们正在非常 密切地关注这一点。 ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : 在全美各地建设数据中心的支出 对利率并不特别敏感。这更多是 基于对长期趋势的判断，即这是 一个未来会有大量投资的领域， 而这些投资将推动生产力提高。 我不清楚这些投资最终会带来怎 样的结果 但我认为与一些其他 ) 代表当月暂停加息 ● 有记录来美联储利率走势 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2008/12 2020/03 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新声明 ○ 美联储在声明重申,政策制定者对劳动力市场的担忧,称"近几个 月来，就业面临的下行风险有所增加"。 ○ 声明称，现有指标显示，经济活动一直在温和扩张。今年就业增长 有所放缓，失业率略有 ...

北京时间10月30日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。此外，美联储还宣布将于12月1日结束为期三年半的缩减资产 购买规模，即量化紧缩。 12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，鲍威尔还有哪些表态？对于未来货币政策，机构如何解读？ ● 美联储最新声明 ○ 美联储在声明重申,政策制定者对劳动力市场的担忧,称"近几个 月来,就业面临的下行风险有所增加"。 ○ 声明称,现有指标显示,经济活动一直在温和扩张。今年就业增长 有所放缓,失业率略有上升,但截至8月份仍保持在较低水平;最 新指标与这些趋势一致。 ○ 通货膨胀率自今年年初以来有所上升,目前仍处于较高水平。 ○ 美联储还宣布将于12月1日结束为期三年半的缩减资产购买规模, 即量化紧缩。 机构解读 ■ 美国银行经济学家Aditya Bhave: 在鲍威尔担任主席期间,美联储不 美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态 会再次降息。但很明显,除非数据 发出明确的信号,否则12月的决策 = 12月降息"远非板上钉钉": 将比10月更加充满争议。 在本次会议的委员会讨论中,对 于12月份如何采取行动,存在着 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.0%[4] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, marking a pause in quantitative tightening[4] - There were two dissenting votes during the meeting, indicating internal disagreement on the decision[4] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low[4] - Inflation is acknowledged to be at a high level, with recent data suggesting a marginal easing in inflation pressures[6] - The ongoing government shutdown and recent layoffs in the tech sector contribute to increased economic downside risks[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%[7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4.0% after the announcement[7] - The probability of a rate cut in December is now over 60%, according to CME futures pricing[7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision for a rate cut in December is not guaranteed and may be influenced by uncertainties such as a potential government shutdown [6][8] - Traders have reduced their bets on a December rate cut, with the probability now at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [7] Group 2 - Powell noted that a government shutdown could impact economic activity and that many American consumers remain dissatisfied with inflation [8] - The Fed's FOMC statement announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1, with Powell stating that market pressures necessitate immediate adjustments to balance sheet operations [9] - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with notable movements in tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, while Meta's stock fell over 8% after disappointing earnings [12] Group 3 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, and the dollar index rose, while onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13] - Bitcoin saw a decline, with approximately 130,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling around $558 million in liquidations [14][15] - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as the Fed's rate cuts are expected to lower global financing costs and improve market conditions, potentially driving capital flows into these markets [16]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% with a 10-2 vote, indicating significant internal disagreement among committee members regarding future rate actions [1][4] - Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged the divisions within the committee, stating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The recent government shutdown is expected to have a lasting impact on economic activity, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a GDP loss of at least $7 billion due to the shutdown [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with companies announcing significant layoffs, including Amazon (14,000 jobs), Paramount (1,000 jobs), and UPS (48,000 jobs) [3][4] - Powell noted that many companies are reducing hiring or initiating layoffs, often citing the impact of artificial intelligence [4] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that current inflation levels are close to the 2% target when excluding tariff impacts, estimating that tariffs contribute approximately 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to core PCE inflation [4] - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2023, and will reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills [5][6] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Despite the government shutdown, economic growth is expected to accelerate, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting a near 4% growth rate for the current quarter [7] - Businesses are cautious about future investments and hiring due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with many expressing concerns about the economic outlook [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, following a similar cut in September, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a growing internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting a more aggressive rate cut while others advocate for maintaining the current rate [1] - Economic indicators show a slight increase in unemployment but remain low, and the September CPI was more moderate than expected, suggesting a continued moderate expansion of economic activity [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's statements, traders reduced the probability of a rate cut in December from 90% to 71%, leading to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [4] - The Federal Reserve will officially end its quantitative tightening process in December, with the redemption principal of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term government bonds [4] - Powell indicated that additional tariffs could raise inflation by up to 0.4 percentage points, although the impact is expected to be temporary and will take time to affect consumers [4]