在该银行所设定的基本情景中(这种情景出现的概率为 60%)，预计未来一个季度黄金价格将维持在每盎 司 3000 美元以上，随后会有所下跌。目前现货黄金的价格约为 3396 美元。 在对其他金属的展望中，花旗银行表示对铝和铜都持极度乐观的态度。分析师们称，这种轻质金属"与 全球经济增长和市场情绪的回暖高度相关"。 智通财经APP获悉，据花旗称，由于创纪录的涨势逐渐消退，黄金价格预计在未来几个季度将回落至每 盎司 3000 美元以下。包括Max Layton在内的分析师在一份报告中表示："我们的研究显示，到 2026 年 下半年，黄金价格将回落至每盎司 2500 至 2700 美元。"他们称，金价下跌可能是由于投资需求减弱、 全球经济增长前景改善以及美联储的降息举措所致。 今年黄金价格已上涨 30%，在 4 月份曾创下历史新高。由于美国总统特朗普破坏性的贸易政策以及中 东地区的危机刺激了避险需求，黄金价格持续攀升。此外，对美国财政赤字和资产的担忧，以及各大央 行为实现储备多元化而持续的购买行为，也支撑了黄金价格的上涨。 花旗分析师们表示："我们预计，到 2025 年末和 2026 年，对黄金的投资需求将会减少，因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trends in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on upcoming developments [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 785.78 CNY per gram, down 1.37% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3418.9 USD per ounce, up 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: The market anticipates the Fed to maintain interest rates, but investors are keen on future policy signals, particularly regarding rate cuts. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while an emphasis on inflation risks could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran have previously driven gold prices up. However, Iran's willingness to restart nuclear negotiations has eased market fears, limiting further gold price increases. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks continue to provide support for gold as tensions may escalate again [2][3]. - Market Profit-Taking: On June 16, gold prices fell over 1% as traders locked in profits after reaching an 8-week high. Without new safe-haven demand, gold prices may continue to consolidate [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price movements are highly dependent on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. A clear signal of rate cuts could lead to a rise in gold prices, while the opposite could exert downward pressure [3]. - Although current geopolitical tensions have eased, they remain a potential source of support for gold prices. The market is also facing profit-taking pressures, and without new positive stimuli, gold prices may remain in a consolidation phase [3]. - In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support an upward shift in gold price levels [3].

中长期来看，全球央行购金潮与美元信用体系隐忧构成黄金的战略支撑。中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，5月末储备达7383万盎司（约2296吨）；欧洲央行黄金占外汇储备比例升至20%，超越欧元成为第 二大储备资产。高盛预测，若美国债务展期压力加剧，2026年金价或突破4000美元/盎司。 分析师指出，若中东冲突外溢或美国经济数据疲软，金价可能突破3500美元关口；反之，若地缘局势缓 和或美联储释放鹰派信号，短期或回踩3400美元支撑位。市场需重点关注6月17日美国密歇根消费者信 心指数及6月下旬非农数据，这些因素或成为金价下一步走势的关键风向标。 美联储货币政策转向预期亦为黄金提供支撑。6月FOMC会议虽维持利率不变，但删除"通胀向2%目标 取得进展"的表述，鲍威尔强调"依赖数据调整政策"。市场押注美联储年内将降息两次（6月、12月）， 美元指数跌至97.8的4月以来低点，削弱了黄金的持有成本。此外，美国5月PPI同比增速降至2.6%，核 心PPI同比3.0%，创2024年8月以来新低，企业端通胀压力缓解强化了宽松预期。 技术面显示黄金短期动能强劲。伦敦金周线级别形成"上升旗形"形态，理论目标指向3500-3550美 ...

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/16 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。SC 原油涨超 6%，棕榈油涨超 3%，豆油涨超 2%， 菜油、焦煤、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱、20 号胶、 乙二醇（EG）跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 3452.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.17%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.21%报 36.37 美元/盎司，周涨 0.64%。 3. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约涨 7.55%报 73.18 美元/桶，周涨 13.32%； 布油主力合约涨 7.5%报 74.56 美元/桶，周涨 12.17%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.56%报 9647.5 美元/吨，周跌 0.47%；LME 期锌跌 0.61%报 2626.5 美元/吨，周跌 1.48%。 5. 国际农产品多数上涨，美大豆涨 2.52%，美玉米涨 1.43%，美豆油涨 6.30%， 美豆粕跌 1.09%，美小麦涨 3 ...

美国经济数据疲软，5月ISM制造业及服务业PMI双双跌至荣枯线以下，5月CPI数据全线低于预期，市 场对美国经济下行担忧加剧，强化了对美联储将降息的预期。降息预期增加了黄金的吸引力，因为黄金 是无息资产，降息会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而推动金价上涨。 全球央行增持黄金 近年来各国央行持续增持黄金，截至2024年底，黄金约占全球官方储备总额的20%，成为仅次于美元的 全球第二大储备资产。中国人民银行自2024年11月重启增持动作以来，连续7个月增持黄金。央行的持 续增持为黄金价格提供了坚实的支撑。 走势展望：短期内，黄金受中东地缘政治局势和美联储货币政策预期影响，将延续高位震荡态势。若地 缘冲突进一步升级或美联储释放明确降息信号，金价有望继续上涨。中长期来看，全球央行持续增持、 美元信用弱化及去美元化趋势等因素，将支撑黄金价格中枢持续上移，但投资者仍需关注地缘政治局势 缓和、关税政策变化等因素可能带来的价格回调风险。 来源：金融界 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为798.02元/克，上涨0.64%。 国际黄金价格报3467.1美元/盎司，上涨0.41%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3 ...

中东火药桶引爆金市，黄金飞升至3440美元后，能否再次迈向3500美元？金十研究员高阳正在直播分 析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the relationship between China and the U.S., as well as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent improvement in U.S.-China relations, indicated by the June 5 phone call between the leaders, suggests a potential easing of trade tensions, which could stabilize global markets and reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict, while currently limited, could lead to increased demand for gold if the situation escalates. However, the current restraint from both sides indicates limited immediate impact on gold prices [4]. Group 2: Current and Future Price Predictions - Current gold prices are approximately 830 yuan per gram, which is considered a high point [6]. - It is anticipated that gold prices may fluctuate between 750 and 780 yuan per gram in the short term, with a potential drop to around 680 yuan if substantial progress is made in U.S.-China relations [7]. - The likelihood of gold prices falling below 650 yuan is minimal due to the absence of significant interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - Long-term gold price trends will be influenced by global inflation, changes in monetary policy, and fiscal policies across countries, leading to potential volatility [7]. - While gold can be a part of an investment strategy, it is advised to diversify investments rather than concentrating solely on gold due to inherent market risks [9].

6月9日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价在周末出现连跌，大部分金店金价已经跌下千元大关。周生生黄金今日暂报1001 元/克，对比昨日微跌2元/克，为最高价金店。上海中国黄金价格继续不变，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金 价差20元/克，价差小了很多。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月9日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 996 | 元/克 | 3 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 版 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 駅 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 985 | 元/克 | 0 | ने | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1000 | 元/克 | 6 | ग | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 7 | 品 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1001 | 元/克 | 2 | 品 | | 菜百黄金 ...