Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump expressed intentions to collaborate with Turkish President Erdogan to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting a productive phone conversation that also covered issues like Syria and Gaza [1] - The U.S.-China trade war has escalated due to tariffs, with China's rare earth export restrictions significantly impacting over 1,000 U.S. weapon systems and the production of more than 20,000 components, including a supply chain disruption for the F-35 fighter jet [3] - The U.S. ranks seventh globally in rare earth reserves with 1.8 million tons but remains heavily reliant on China for imports due to high extraction and purification costs, despite having significant reserves [3] Group 2 - Turkey has discovered nearly 700 million tons of rare earth reserves, positioning itself as the second-largest holder globally, but lacks the technology to fully exploit these resources, making it dependent on China's processing technology [5] - China has made significant advancements in rare earth extraction technology, achieving over 95% recovery rates and reducing costs, which diminishes Turkey's bargaining power in seeking technology transfer from China [5][8] - The dynamics between China and Turkey have shifted, with Turkey now needing China's advanced technology to develop its rare earth resources, as alternative technologies from other sources would be less competitive [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trading logic will shift from policy - based game to fundamentals after the policy - based game ends. For example, in the stock index futures and bond futures markets, the market will focus more on the actual economic situation and capital flow [10][12]. - Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions. For instance, it is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices; have a bearish view on eggs; use a light - position long - spread strategy for apples; and take profit on short positions of jujubes in batches [17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China and Russia deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders sign a joint statement [7]. - The US and the UK reach a tariff trade agreement, and the US reduces tariffs on UK cars, steel, and aluminum. They also plan to start digital trade agreement negotiations [7]. - Four major first - tier cities in China lower the provident fund loan interest rate, and Chengdu proposes a new provident fund policy [7]. - In April, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 17%, and new energy vehicle retail sales were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [8]. - The EU announces a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sues the US at the WTO [8]. - The US starts the legislative work on a huge tax - cut plan, and the number of initial and continued jobless claims in the US last week decreased [8]. - Tensions between India and Pakistan intensify, causing the Pakistani stock market to plunge [9]. - Institutions and enterprises rush to issue science and technology innovation bonds, with a total issuance scale of 21 billion yuan and a registration scale of 18 billion yuan as of May 8 [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to pay attention to resistance levels and market performance after the release of macro data. After the central bank's policy announcement, the main indexes showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, and there was large - scale capital inflow into the Shanghai 50 ETF at the end of the session [10]. 3.3 Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider short - bond arbitrage and steepen the yield curve. After the central bank's policy announcement, the bond market shows a trend of short - bond confidence recovery and yield curve steepening [11][12]. 3.4 Container Shipping to Europe - The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to the lack of upward drivers. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13]. 3.5 Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are running weakly at a low level due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The international cotton price is affected by factors such as a stronger US dollar and poor export data. The future trend depends on macro - situation changes, US cotton planting, and export conditions [14]. 3.6 Sugar - The sugar price shows a volatile trend. Internationally, the supply from Brazil is expected to increase, while India's production is expected to recover. Domestically, the supply is relatively loose in the short term, but the uncertainty of import supply affects the sugar price [15][16]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - It is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is under pressure due to the expected increase in production in the producing areas, and soybean meal is affected by the recovery of domestic oil mill operating rates [17]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [18][19]. 3.9 Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position long - spread strategy. The current situation of apple setting in the western producing areas varies, and the inventory in the producing areas is at a low level in the past six years, with the possibility of price increases [20]. 3.10 Jujubes - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the producing areas. The market is currently in a range - bound state, and the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is good [20]. 3.11 Crude Oil - In the long term, the oil price has a downward expectation due to OPEC+ production increase and economic recession concerns. In the short term, there is a certain rebound expectation due to factors such as the possible easing of the Sino - US trade war [21]. 3.12 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price follows the crude oil price rebound, and the market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [22]. 3.13 Plastics - It is recommended to have a bearish view on L and PP. The long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the cost support is declining [23][24]. 3.14 Rubber - The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is possible to go long with a light position on pullbacks and set a stop - loss [25]. 3.15 Methanol - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view. The downstream demand is expected to decrease, and the long - term demand situation is not good [25]. 3.16 Caustic Soda - The near - month contract is expected to strengthen, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is strong due to supply decline and demand increase [26]. 3.17 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to improve marginally in May, and the price decline space is limited, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose. For glass, the demand expectation is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly [27][28]. 3.18 Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the price is supported by inventory. The upper pressure comes from the oil price [29]. 3.19 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, polyester products are expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities [30]. 3.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The medium - term trend of LPG is affected by crude oil. Although the long - term price center is expected to decline, the domestic PG is stronger than crude oil due to the Sino - US trade war [31]. 3.21 Pulp - The supply - demand situation has no obvious contradiction, and the market is in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - sentiment [31][32]. 3.22 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long term [33]. 3.23 Urea - Moderate export is likely, but the policy does not allow a significant increase in the domestic urea price. The international urea price is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.24 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices appropriately. For alumina, the price is expected to continue to decline weakly and wait for the ore price to stabilize [35]. 3.25 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a bearish view is maintained before the actual supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upside space, and the 07 contract is expected to decline weakly [36][37]. 3.26 Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be weak due to factors such as Sino - US tariffs and weak demand [37]. 3.27 Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and they are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [38]. 3.28 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long intraday. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to take profit on the sold 06 - contract put options [38].

在美方对华发动新一轮关税战之后，中国给出的态度非常明确，那就是"谈，大门敞开！打，奉陪到底"！ 美国总统日前宣称，在中美达成协议之前，美方不会降低对华关税。不过，下一秒他就自己打自己的脸。据和 讯网报道，美国财长贝森特日前威胁称: 白宫正在考虑对从中国进口的汽车座椅、婴儿车、婴儿床和其他儿童出 行必需品免征145%的关税。尽管贝森特还说，在对华关税问题上，美方"更倾向于让贸易惩罚更广泛、更简 单"。但实际上就是关税问题上扛不住了，不得不向中方服软。 日前，中美两国贸易代表在瑞士举行谈判，就中美之间的贸易和关税等问题进行沟通。显然，美方在这敏感时 刻"考虑"免除上述商品近期加征的高额关税，就是在给中美贸易代表会谈创造合适的政治氛围。也就是说，中 美还没有达成任何协议，美国就主动做出让步，这不是认输又是什么呢？ 不过，中方虽说没有对美方关闭对话大门，但也绝不可能会主动拨通白宫的电话，甚至还前所未有地多次戳穿 美方有关"中方主动寻求接触"的谎言，让"大统领"在这场大国博弈中骑虎难下。因此，当贝森特面对记者有 关"白宫是否主动给中方打电话"的提问时，支支吾吾连话都说不清楚。为此，中方干脆帮他们掀开底牌，告诉 全世界中 ...

要说特朗普为啥这么反复，还得看看美国那边的情况，贸易战打到现在，美国自己也快吃不消了。关税战不仅没让美国占到多少便宜，反而让国内的经济和 政治压力直线上升。眼瞅着明年就是美国中期选举，各州的地方政府都急得像热锅上的蚂蚁。贸易战让不少州的出口产业受到重创，经济数据一个比一个难 看。 尤其是加利福尼亚州，作为美国经济人口第一大州，外贸是命根子，关税战一打，出口订单哗哗往下掉，当地企业叫苦不迭，其他州的情况也好不到哪儿 去，共和党州和民主党州的地方官员难得统一了战线，纷纷对特朗普的政策开炮。有些州甚至直接把特朗普当局告上了法庭，指责贸易战让地方经济雪上加 霜。 中美贸易战打了一个多月，特朗普这边刚嚷着要谈，转头又翻脸说不降税，弄得人有点摸不着头脑，中方这边倒是稳得住，始终不慌不忙，同意接触但一点 不示弱，这场博弈，表面看是关税和贸易的较量，实际上是双方底气的比拼，特朗普的态度为啥这么反复？接下来的接触还能不能谈出个结果呢？ 文案|编辑：清 中美贸易战已经持续了一个多月，双方你来我往，局势始终僵持不下，就在这节骨眼上，美国总统特朗普的态度却像过山车一样，忽上忽下，让人看得眼花 缭乱。先是美方频频放风，说想跟中方坐下来 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 基本面方面，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比 较大。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束，并未出现异常天气，今年丰产概率 增大。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注，从整体 上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份。近期美国宏观数据显示疲 弱，美联储释放鸽派信号，叠加中美贸易战进入新的阶段，中美双方开 始进行接触，并且国务院降息降准等刺激政策落地，市场情绪有所缓和， 但由于中美贸易战不确定性仍存，以及全球经济的衰退预期上升，在消 费端存在下滑的可能性，供增需弱，对长远趋势看弱，未来的 6 月份显 得比较关键，如果中美握手言和，取消对等关税，美联储开始降息，行 情还有转机的机会，如果不能，则会一直发展不利。短期国内基本面无 变化，操作建议，依然是保持谨慎，有反弹做好套保对冲思路。（数据 来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：偏强震荡 本周 PTA 低位反弹，一方面是基本面成本与供需利好支撑，另一方面 宏观回暖与国内政策支持，短期 PTA 价 ...

所以，对于这周六开始的第一轮谈判，大家别抱太大希望！我们还是坚持做自己，能谈就谈，不能谈也不迁就。面对美国的关税政策，东方大国绝对不是好 惹的，美国先加征10%关税，咱们就先加征10%关税；美国再加征5%，咱们就再加征5%。 中美"第二阶段"贸易协定的事儿，到底会谈里会不会提？商务部都回应了。可川普又开始"变脸"，说了一堆乱七八糟的，搞得我们不得不再次出来"敲 打"他。中方的态度很明确，绝不会接受美方说一套、做一套，必须拿出点诚意来！我之前就说过，这次谈判，他肯定又会蛮横地提一堆无理要求。 二、美联储公布利率决议，维持基准利率在4.25%～4.50%不变。 一、中美贸易战正式升级！中美5月9日至12日将在瑞士开启首轮谈判！ 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，让我们做时间的朋友，享受价值投资带来的收获。对于近期股市有什么看法，欢迎读者在下方评论区讨论。 沪深两市全天成交额1.29万亿，较上个交易日缩量1749亿。指数昨天提到算是有效突破，今天缩量震荡，从筹码角度看资金还是比较惜售。 明天大概率还是会有冲高的预期。题材看，除军工外其他题材还是轮动为主，重点关注军工的持续性，如果继续走强，板块容易走出主线行情。 四、涨停复盘 ...

Group 1: Trade War Overview - The current US-China trade war is an escalation of the 2018 trade conflict, with the US imposing an average import tariff of 134.7% on Chinese goods, with some products facing tariffs as high as 245%[11][15]. - Historically, the US has initiated seven rounds of trade wars, with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act being a significant example that worsened the Great Depression[5][8]. - The trade war has led to increased volatility in global capital markets and a restructuring of the global trade system[7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade war is expected to impact China's GDP growth by approximately 0.9-1.6 percentage points under neutral scenarios, with potential declines of 2.0-2.6 percentage points in pessimistic scenarios[6][26]. - China's exports to the US are heavily reliant on specific sectors, with textiles and light industrial products being particularly vulnerable, where over 50% of certain products are exported to the US[27][28]. - The US trade deficit with China decreased from 2.0% of GDP to 1.0% from 2018 Q3 to 2024 Q3, while the deficit with other countries increased from 2.2% to 3.0%[14]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China has implemented countermeasures, including reciprocal tariffs and diversifying export markets to reduce reliance on the US, with exports to Vietnam increasing by 1.4% over the past five years[27][28]. - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological advancements to mitigate the impact of tariffs, emphasizing investment in high-tech sectors[6][26]. - Long-term strategies include reforming state-owned enterprises and enhancing social security to boost consumer spending and economic resilience[6][26].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（资料图） 据金融界报道，韩国产业部副部长Park Sung-taek日前表示，由于所涉及问题的复杂性和政治不确定性，韩国认为在6月3日总统大选之前不可能与美国达成 全面贸易协议。Park表示，韩国政府本周将派代表团前往华盛顿进行工作组级别会谈，以推进上周的进展，但6月初之前就任何一揽子措施达成协议"在理论 上是不可能的"。美国财政部长Scott Bessent上周表示，继上周在华盛顿举行贸易谈判后，两国可能最快在本周达成"谅解协议"。Bessent表示，谈判进展比预 期更快，有望在7月8日关税生效的最后期限前完成。 特朗普上台100天，美国就出现了"债股汇"三杀，经济衰退已经成为了一个极大概率事件。然而，美国一向缺乏解决内部矛盾的智慧，他们惯于向外转移压 力。随着美国认清了我国的现有实力，特朗普政府决定从盟友身上开刀，最大程度地从盟友国家手中攫取利益。特朗普此前要求韩国开放汽车市场，并限制 钢铁出口，而韩方坚持要求特朗普豁免25%汽车关税，和10%铝制品关税。值得注意的是，韩国代表团在首次正式关税会谈后，特意向美方强调了当前"代 总统执政"的特殊政治状态。 据北晚在线报道，日前，日 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 基本面方面，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比 较大。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束，并未出现异常天气，今年丰产概率 增大。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注，从整体 上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份。近期美国宏观数据显示疲 弱，美联储释放鸽派信号，叠加中美贸易战进入新的阶段，中美双方开 始进行接触，并且国务院降息降准等刺激政策落地，市场情绪有所缓和， 但由于中美贸易战不确定性仍存，以及全球经济的衰退预期上升，在消 费端存在下滑的可能性，供增需弱，对长远趋势看弱，未来的 6 月份显 得比较关键，如果中美握手言和，取消对等关税，美联储开始降息，行 情还有转机的机会，如果不能，则会一直发展不利。短期国内基本面无 变化，操作建议，依然是保持谨慎，有反弹做好套保对冲思路。（数据 来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：偏强震荡 产业服务总部 棉纺团队 2025-5-8 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2 ...