冯毅浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长。浙江大学博士后，中央财经大学 博士，高级经济师，北京语言大学商学院硕导，浙江民革经济委员会委员。出版专著《股权结构与董事 会效率关系研究》,译著《灭火—美国金融危机及其教训》等。 2025年作为"十四五"规划的收官之年，我国经济发展面临复杂多变的国内外环境。在全球经济增速放 缓、外需不确定性增强的背景下，2025年《政府工作报告》明确将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求"列为首要任务，凸显了内需作为经济增长"稳定锚"的战略地位。这一决策不仅是应 对短期经济压力的主动选择，更是推动经济结构转型升级、构建新发展格局的长期考量。如何将内需潜 力转化为经济高质量发展的持续动力？浙商资产研究院总经理、浙江工商大学浙商资产管理学院副院长 冯毅对《金融时报》记者表示，应加强政策评估、创新金融工具，并引导社会预期，确保投资与消费的 有效协同。最终目标是形成投资拉动供给、消费反哺投资的良性循环，缩小区域经济差距，实现经济高 质量发展。 短期稳增长与长期调结构的辩证统一 《金融时报》记者：2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"全方位扩大内需"列为十大任务之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent initiatives aim to stimulate market vitality and promote economic growth through various measures that positively impact both businesses and consumers [1] Policy Support Enhancement - The government is increasing policy support through fiscal subsidies and tax incentives to alleviate the burden on enterprises, particularly small and micro businesses, by providing special subsidy funds for equipment upgrades and service optimization [2] - Specific consumption sectors will benefit from tax reductions, directly increasing corporate profits and enabling further investment in product upgrades and market expansion [2] Expansion of Consumption Scenarios - New measures encourage the development of emerging consumption scenarios such as night economy and outdoor consumption, alongside traditional commercial areas [3] - Initiatives include creating unique night markets, setting up mobile stalls, and hosting outdoor music festivals to attract more consumers and enhance the consumption atmosphere [3] Online and Offline Integration - A significant highlight of the new initiatives is the promotion of online and offline integration, encouraging businesses to engage in online marketing through live streaming and online stores [9] - This model allows consumers to enjoy the convenience of online shopping while also experiencing products in physical stores before making a purchase, enhancing shopping flexibility and sales efficiency for businesses [9] Issuance of Consumption Vouchers - The distribution of consumption vouchers has emerged as an effective tool to stimulate spending, with various denominations and applicable areas, including dining, tourism, and shopping [10] - These vouchers lower consumer costs, encouraging spending and driving revenue growth in related industries [10] Improvement of Service Quality - The new initiatives emphasize enhancing service quality by requiring businesses to improve employee training and service awareness [11] - Improved service quality leads to higher consumer satisfaction, increasing purchase frequency and creating a positive feedback loop [11]

升级商品消费，稳住消费大盘。目前，商品消费存在的主要问题是消费能力、消费意愿偏弱，有效 需求受到制约。商务部将重点从需求端着手，着力挖掘商品更新升级需求。今年以来，加力扩围实施消 费品以旧换新的政策成效逐步显现。截至3月24日，全国汽车以旧换新申请量合计超过150万份；消费者 购买12大类家电以旧换新产品超过2800万台，4500多万名消费者申请了5600多万件手机等数码产品的购 新补贴，电动自行车以旧换新已经超过220万辆。李刚表示，商务部将抓好政策落地实施，密切跟踪督 导、优化便民服务，畅通回收链条，加大宣传推广力度，让"真金白银"更高效更便捷直达消费者。 扩大服务消费，挖掘消费增量。服务消费增长较快、潜力巨大，但是一些领域供给存在短板，特别 是"一老一小"、家政服务等领域优质供给不足。商务部服贸司副司长王波表示，从今年起，商务部将牵 头实施服务消费提质惠民行动，围绕文化、旅游、养老、托幼、健康、体育、生活服务等服务消费重点 领域，从支持政策、促进活动、平台载体、对外开放、标准引领、发展环境等方面提出一批务实举措， 发挥部门合力，切实提升服务品质，改善消费体验，不断增强人民群众的获得感。 培育新型消费，增 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the consumption sector, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry based on expected performance relative to benchmarks [19]. Core Insights - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" is a comprehensive initiative aimed at enhancing consumer spending through various measures, including income support and targeted subsidies [2][5]. - The implementation of policies such as "trade-in" incentives is expected to significantly boost retail sales growth, particularly in the second quarter of 2025 [2][4]. - The effectiveness of these policies largely depends on the acceleration of income growth and improvements in future income expectations related to asset prices [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The government is focusing on a multi-faceted approach to stimulate consumption, involving various departments and a range of financial incentives [2][5]. - The "trade-in" policy is projected to increase annual retail sales growth by approximately 1 percentage point, with a total subsidy of 1,500 billion yuan expected to generate 1.3 trillion yuan in sales [4]. Policy Measures - Specific measures include lowering housing provident fund loan rates and providing interest subsidies on consumer loans, which are anticipated to improve residents' cash flow [4]. - The plan also emphasizes stabilizing asset prices in the housing and stock markets to enhance future income expectations for residents [4]. Consumer Support - The report highlights the importance of increasing support for childbirth and childcare, with various regions already implementing substantial subsidies [7]. - Employment support measures are also being enhanced, with a budget of 667.4 billion yuan allocated for employment assistance in 2025 [8]. Supply-Side Initiatives - The plan aims to stimulate effective demand through high-quality supply, focusing on optimizing service consumption and developing new consumption scenarios [5]. - There is a push for innovation in consumption, including the integration of artificial intelligence and the expansion of digital and green consumption [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the year, highlighted by the recent release of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" which aims to enhance consumer spending through various innovative measures [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is a collaborative effort from both the Central and State Councils, marking a significant elevation in policy issuance compared to previous years where policies were primarily released by the State Council [1] - This year's plan includes over 10 additional policy measures compared to previous years, indicating a robust commitment to stimulating consumption [1] - The plan shifts focus from supply-side policies to a more balanced approach that emphasizes both supply and demand, aiming for comprehensive engagement in consumption stimulation [1] Group 2: Key Initiatives - The plan introduces several first-time initiatives, including measures to stabilize the stock and real estate markets, the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, and the promotion of new technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and robotics [1][2] - Financial support for trade-in programs has increased from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan, and employment support funding is set at 66.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant increase in fiscal commitment [1] - The plan outlines three main strategies: enhancing consumer capacity, addressing consumption barriers, and exploring new consumption growth points [1][2] Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The plan emphasizes "increasing income and reducing burdens," proposing measures to promote reasonable growth in wage income and adjust minimum wage standards [2] - It aims to alleviate family burdens related to childbirth, education, healthcare, and elderly care, with a particular focus on the highly anticipated childcare subsidy [2] Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The plan includes measures to gradually reduce consumption restrictions, facilitating car purchases for families without vehicles and addressing housing needs by expanding the use of housing provident funds and potentially lowering loan interest rates [2] Group 5: New Consumption Growth Points - The plan outlines initiatives to promote trade-in programs for consumer goods, enhance service quality through both domestic and international openings, and innovate in new consumption models such as "AI + consumption" and "IP + consumption" [2]

责编：万健祎 2025年3月5日（星期三）上午9时，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会堂举行开幕会。 国务院总理李强5日在政府工作报告中介绍今年政府工作任务时提出，大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全 方位扩大国内需求。促进消费和投资更好结合，加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长 的主动力和稳定锚。 实施提振消费专项行动。制定提升消费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境专项措施，释放多样化、差异 化消费潜力，推动消费提质升级。多渠道促进居民增收，推动中低收入群体增收减负，完善劳动者工资正 常增长机制。安排超长期特别国债3000亿元支持消费品以旧换新。从放宽准入、减少限制、优化监管等方 面入手，扩大健康、养老、托幼、家政等多元化服务供给。创新和丰富消费场景，加快数字、绿色、智能 等新型消费发展。落实和优化休假制度，释放文化、旅游、体育等消费潜力。完善免税店政策，推动扩大 入境消费。深化国际消费中心城市建设，健全县域商业体系。完善全口径消费统计制度。强化消费者权益 保护，营造安全放心消费环境。 积极扩大有效投资。紧扣国家发展战略和民生需求，发挥好各类政府投资工具作用，加强财政与金融配 合，强化项目储备和要素保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the special tone of the recent National Two Sessions, highlighting the effects of previous economic stimulus and the anticipation of upcoming stimulus measures, reflecting a unique expectation from the public [5]. Summary by Sections National Two Sessions Overview - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC) held their sessions on March 3 and March 4, respectively, with significant data shared, including a GDP exceeding 134 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 5% [3]. - The sessions are characterized by a focus on current macroeconomic changes and hot topics, with a closer connection to recent updates compared to previous years [3][4]. Key Agenda Items - The CPPCC session will last six days, focusing on reviewing reports and discussing government work [9]. - The NPC session will last seven days, with key agendas including the review of government work reports and budget plans for 2025 [11]. Economic Targets and KPIs - The expected GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, with a potential CPI target down to 2% and a fiscal deficit rate projected to rise to 3.8%-4% [15][17]. - The GDP growth target reflects a slight decrease from the previous year's average growth target of 5.3% [17]. Economic Stimulus Measures - The fiscal spending plan includes a projected deficit of 5.5 trillion yuan and an increase in broad fiscal funds by approximately 2 trillion yuan, reaching 12 trillion yuan [21]. - Special bonds are expected to be issued for significant projects, including 1.5-2 trillion yuan for long-term special bonds and 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan for bank capital injections [21]. Consumption, Investment, and Export Dynamics - Consumption is projected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth in 2024, while investment and exports contribute 25.2% and 30.3%, respectively [28][30]. - The focus on consumption is expected to increase, with many local governments prioritizing domestic demand and consumption in their annual goals [33]. Industry Focus - The article highlights emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and digital economy as key areas of interest for future growth [44]. Public Interest Proposals - Various proposals from NPC representatives focus on enhancing public welfare, including suggestions for paid leave policies, tax adjustments, and support for elderly care, reflecting a growing concern for social issues [49].