Core Viewpoint - Domestic oil prices continue to rise, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 260 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively, leading to a rise of 0.2-0.22 yuan/liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline [1][3] Price Adjustment Overview - The last price adjustment resulted in a consecutive increase in June, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 325 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.25-0.28 yuan/liter [3] - In the first 12 adjustments of the year, there were 5 increases, 5 decreases, and 2 unchanged periods, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 330 yuan and 315 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The next price adjustment is scheduled for July 1, 2025, with the current cycle showing a significant increase in oil prices [3][5] Price Prediction - The current price increase is expected to exceed 50 yuan/ton, indicating a substantial rise in domestic oil prices for the upcoming adjustment [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent reports indicating a drop of over 7% in oil prices due to easing tensions [5][7] - If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, there may be further opportunities for price adjustments to narrow in the upcoming cycle [7] Regional Price Data - The latest regional prices for 92 and 95 octane gasoline and 0 diesel show variations across provinces, with prices generally ranging from 7.13 to 9.95 yuan/liter for 92 octane gasoline and 7.64 to 9.79 yuan/liter for 95 octane gasoline [8]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China are experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable increase expected in the upcoming adjustment scheduled for July 1, 2025, following a period of price declines earlier in the year [1][3][5]. Price Trends - After a series of price adjustments from February to May 2025, domestic fuel prices saw a cumulative decrease of approximately 0.85 to 0.91 yuan per liter, with the lowest prices recorded since Q3 2021 [3][5]. - The latest price adjustment on May 17, 2025, marked a significant increase of 260 yuan per ton, leading to a rise in 92 gasoline prices in Beijing to 7.17 yuan per liter [3][5]. Upcoming Adjustments - The 13th price adjustment of 2025 is set for July 1, 2025, with current estimates indicating a potential increase of 520 yuan per ton, translating to an expected rise of 0.40 to 0.46 yuan per liter [5][7]. - As of June 24, 2025, the oil price increase trend is expected to continue, although recent drops in international oil prices may temper the extent of domestic price hikes [5][7]. Market Influences - The fluctuations in domestic fuel prices are influenced by international oil market conditions, particularly the recent decline in WTI and Brent crude oil prices by over 7% due to easing geopolitical tensions [5][7]. - The potential for a decrease in international oil prices could lead to a narrowing of the expected price increase for the upcoming adjustment [7]. Regional Price Variations - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China show significant variation, with 92 gasoline prices in Beijing at 7.17 yuan per liter, while other regions report different pricing structures [8].

注意，中东局势出现缓解，美国总统特朗普发文称，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。市场对石油供应中断的担忧情绪大幅缓 解，国际油价重创，回到之前的低点，国内油价预计涨幅稍有减少。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第5个工作日，当前预计油价上涨520元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计涨幅减少85元/吨，折合每升油价上涨0.39- 0.47元。仍远超油价上调红线，油价要涨 注意，油价大涨中 | 福建 | 7.14 | 7.63 | 9.13 | 6.82 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海南 | 8.29 | 8.8 | 9.95 | 6.91 | | 广东 | 7.19 | 7.79 | 9.79 | 6.83 | | 广西 | 7.24 | 7.82 | 9.06 | 6.88 | | 広開 | 7.32 | 7.86 | 8.54 | 6.9 | | 贵州 | 7.3 | 7.72 | 8.62 | 6.93 | | 四川 | 7.27 | 7.77 | 8.45 | 6.88 | | 重庆 | 7.24 | 7.65 | 9.24 | 6.89 | | श्रीमें स् ...

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点张文珂 国内成品油零售限价迎来年内第五次上调。 国家发展改革委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年6月17日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨260元和255元。 隆众资讯分析师褚英斌指出，本计价周期虽然汽油柴油整体需求一般，不过受地缘局势因素影响，国际原油价格持续走强，本 轮调价末期更是迎来大幅上行，消息、成本端拉动国内汽油柴油价格上涨。 据卓创资讯（301299）测算，截至6月16日收盘，国内第10个工作日，参考原油变化率6.01%，折合为升价，92号汽油、95号汽 油、0号柴油分别上调0.20元、0.22元以及0.22元。 海岱财经统计，待此次调价落地，年内成品油调整呈现"5涨5跌2搁浅"局面，汽柴油分别累计下调330元/吨、315元/吨。 目前，淄博地区92号成品油国标价为6.93元/升，此次涨价落实后，以"两桶油"为代表的加油站零售价将上调至7.13元/升左右， 重回"7元时代"；95号汽油国标价也将从现有的7.44元/升，上调至7.66元/升左右。 成本方面，按照油箱容量为50L的家用轿车为例，加满一箱92号汽油将增加10元。以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices marks the second-largest increase in 2025, driven by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the military actions between Israel and Iran [2][4]. Price Adjustment Details - Effective from June 17, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 260 yuan and 255 yuan per ton, respectively [3][4]. - The price adjustments result in an increase of approximately 0.19 to 0.22 yuan per liter for various grades of gasoline and diesel [3]. Market Trends - This adjustment is the twelfth price change in 2025, with a pattern of five increases, five decreases, and two periods of no change observed [4]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 330 yuan and 315 yuan per ton, respectively, compared to the beginning of the year [4]. Impact on Consumers - The price increase will raise fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with estimates suggesting an additional 10 yuan for filling a standard 50L tank and an increase of 1.5 yuan per 100 kilometers for average vehicles [4]. - For heavy-duty trucks, the cost increase is estimated at 8.8 yuan per 100 kilometers, significantly impacting logistics expenses [4]. International Oil Price Dynamics - The recent surge in international oil prices is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, which has raised concerns about supply risks [5][6]. - As of June 12, 2025, WTI crude oil prices rose to 72.98 USD per barrel, reflecting a 7.26% increase, while Brent crude reached 74.23 USD per barrel, up 7.02% [6]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high likelihood of further price increases in the next adjustment cycle, with expectations of a 290 yuan per ton increase based on current trends [8][9]. - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains that international oil prices will maintain a strong upward trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [9].

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in fuel prices will see diesel prices rise to 6.9-7.1 yuan per liter and 92-octane gasoline prices increase to 7.3-7.4 yuan per liter, following a price hike of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and 255 yuan per ton for diesel [1] - This marks the twelfth round of adjustments in domestic fuel prices, resulting in a pattern of "five increases, five decreases, and two stasis" [1] - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 330 yuan per ton and 315 yuan per ton, respectively, compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The recent price increase will lead to higher fuel costs for private car owners and logistics companies, with an estimated additional cost of around 10 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank and an increase of 1.5 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven by typical city vehicles [1] - For large logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 8.8 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven [1] Group 3 - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating upwards, driven by concerns over potential oil supply risks due to military actions by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities, alongside the ongoing U.S. traditional consumption peak season [3] - The next price adjustment window is set to open on July 1, with expectations of a significant price increase based on current international crude oil price levels [3] - Analysts predict that the geopolitical instability and improving demand conditions will continue to support international oil prices, indicating a high probability of price increases in the next round of fuel price adjustments [3]

（注：具体的调整幅度以国家发展改革委公布的为准） 来源丨中国商报微信综合自北京青年报、中国新闻网、潮新闻 责编丨胡美静 白雅琦 付颢琬 校对丨张斌 审核丨杨宏生 6月17日24时，成品油调价窗口将再度开启。据多家机构测算，按照国内成品油调价机制， 届时国内汽 柴油上调幅度约为300元/吨，迎来年内第5次上调。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟预计，调价窗口开启时，对应成品油上调幅度约280—320元/吨，本轮油 价上调已成定局。 若本次价格上调，以70升的油箱来计算，私家车主加满一箱油将多花16元左右。 从供应端来看，虽然OPEC+增产操作仍在进行中，但是伊以冲突导致潜在供应风险增强，成为市场当 前最主要的关注点。 地缘因素带来供应趋紧预期，令短期内供应端仍是偏紧张的主基调。 摩根大通分析师也警告称，中东局势恶化可能会引发该地区主要产油国的报复性反应，这些国家石油产 量在全球占比为1/3， "在这种严峻形势下，预计油价可能会飙升至每桶120美元至130美元的区间。" 从需求端来看，目前美国夏季出行高峰来临，传统旺季提振燃油需求，需求季节性增强。此外，美国关 税新政带来的压力减弱，各大机构削减对经济衰退的预测，需求方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices are expected to rise significantly in the upcoming adjustment on June 17, with the main 92 gasoline likely entering the "7 yuan" range after a series of price fluctuations throughout the year [1][3][7]. Price Adjustments - As of now, there have been 11 price adjustments in 2025, with 5 decreases, 4 increases, and 2 instances where prices were held steady [3]. - The last adjustment saw an increase of 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, respectively, narrowing the overall price drop to 590 yuan and 570 yuan per ton [3]. - The current price for mainstream 92 gasoline has rebounded to approximately 6.93 yuan per liter in Shandong [3]. Market Trends - The recent price adjustment cycle has shown a significant increase in oil prices, with a current average of 66 USD per barrel and a 4.5% change rate [5]. - International oil prices have surged, with WTI rising by 4.94 USD to 72.98 USD per barrel and Brent increasing by 4.87 USD to 74.23 USD per barrel, marking a daily increase of over 7% and a weekly increase exceeding 13% [5]. - Factors contributing to the rise in oil prices include the onset of the energy consumption peak season and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [5][7]. Future Expectations - The upcoming price adjustment is anticipated to result in an increase of over 200 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a rise of more than 0.2 yuan per liter [7]. - Stakeholders are advised to refuel before the price hike, as the adjustment is expected to lead to significant additional costs for consumers [7].

汽油涨价65元/吨 国家发改委在公告中指出，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年 6月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨65元和60元。 据金联创测算，截至6月3日第十个工作日，参考原油品种均价为63.16美元/桶，变化率为2.11%。具体 来看，89号汽油上调0.05元/升，92号汽油0.05元/升，95号汽油0.06元/升，0号柴油0.05元/升。 本轮是2025年第十一次调价，也迎来了2025年的第四次上调。本次调价过后，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较 去年底分别下跌655元/吨和630元/吨，零售油价较年初价格跌幅较大，油价仍处于较低水平，下一次调 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 何一华 李未来 北京报道 6月3日下午，国家发改委发布了新一轮油价调整公告，自2025年6月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨 分别上涨65元和60元。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩告诉《华夏时报》记者，本轮计价周期内国际市场消息面利好利空因素博 弈，原油价格走势窄幅回落后再度上涨。受国际油价区间波动影响，本轮变化率正向开端后持续小幅收 窄运行，零售价调价最终兑现小幅 ...

国家发展改革委6月3日发布的通知称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格 形成机制，自2025年6月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上涨65元和 60元。 本次调价将增加私家车主和物流企业的成本。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私家车来算，此次调价 后，车主们加满一箱油将多花2.5元左右；对于满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃 油费用增加2元左右。 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 杨舒欣 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩表示，本计价周期内，国际原油市场存在利好利空因素博弈，原油价格走势窄幅回 落后再度上涨。首先，"欧佩克+"讨论7月再次大规模增产，加剧市场对供应过剩的担忧，市场权衡贸易局势缓 解与"欧佩克+"增产前景，国际油价走势震荡下行。随后，"欧佩克+"暂时维持产量政策不变，API原油库存减 少，俄乌冲突力度再度增强导致潜在供应风险浮现，国际油价走势小幅上涨。本轮计价周期末，潜在供应风险 浮现，加上美国传统旺季来临，国际油价收盘大涨。 欧 ...