Core Viewpoint - Since the end of April, gold has been in a volatile market influenced by tariffs, U.S. fiscal policies, geopolitical factors, and central bank gold purchases, but changes in these factors may initiate an upward trend for gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Influences - Tariff expectations are likely to stabilize for the time being, while the impact of stagflation may just be beginning to manifest [1] - The likelihood of a significant decrease in geopolitical risks within the year is low [1] - The Federal Reserve may initiate an early curve rate cut [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold remains stable [1] Group 3: Price Predictions - Under a neutral assumption, the model predicts that gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of April, gold has been in a volatile market, influenced by factors such as tariff impacts, U.S. fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases, creating a complex balance of bullish and bearish forces. However, changes in these factors may initiate an upward trend for gold prices [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Tariff expectations are likely to stabilize for the time being, while the effects of stagflation may just be beginning to manifest [1] - The likelihood of a significant decrease in geopolitical risks within the year is low [1] - The Federal Reserve may initiate early interest rate cuts [1] - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold remains stable [1] Group 2: Price Predictions - Under a neutral assumption, the model predicts that gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have gained significant attention, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,539.88, and closing at $3,533.40, reflecting an increase of over 1% [1] - Year-to-date, gold has risen by 34.5%, outperforming most other assets [1] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to poor U.S. economic performance, trade tensions, and global risk factors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months, with the ISM manufacturing PMI rising from 48.0 to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [2] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its decline is impacting employment, investment, and consumption [2] - High tariff policies are identified as a major factor, with average tariff levels reaching a century high, increasing costs for imported components and disrupting production plans for various sectors [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's policy is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with a potential 25 basis point rate cut anticipated on September 17, totaling around 57 basis points for the year [4] - Non-farm payroll data will be a critical reference point, as weak data could elevate rate cut expectations [4] - Manufacturing data shows new orders rising to 51.4, but the production index has dropped to 47.8, indicating ongoing employment pressures and supply chain bottlenecks [4] Group 4 - The gold market is entering a seasonally active period, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings rising to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, and silver prices reaching a 14-year high [6] - Despite a slightly stronger dollar, the overall trend remains weak, supporting gold prices [6] - Global factors, including European inflation nearing central bank targets, political instability in Japan, and fiscal issues in the UK, alongside U.S. economic slowdown and inflation pressures, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged over 1% on September 2, reaching a historic high of $3539.88 per ounce, closing at $3533.40 per ounce, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-to-date, significantly outperforming other assets [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the weak U.S. economy, trade policy uncertainties, and global geopolitical risks, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid these challenges [1][4] - The demand for gold is further supported by central bank purchases and diversification away from the U.S. dollar, reinforcing its status as a reliable hedge against economic instability [6][10] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in decline for six consecutive months, with the August PMI slightly improving to 48.7 but still below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [3] - High tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration have led to increased costs for manufacturers, negatively impacting profit margins and employment in the sector [3][5] - Factory construction spending fell by 6.7% year-over-year in July, signaling a cooling investment sentiment within the manufacturing industry [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with potential discussions for a 50 basis point cut if upcoming non-farm payroll data is weak [7][11] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to significant declines in stock markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.55% and the S&P 500 down 0.69% at the start of September [5] - Rising U.S. debt levels, now at $37.18 trillion, and concerns over fiscal deficits are contributing to increased yields in the bond market, further driving investors towards gold [5][6] Group 4: Global Economic Context - Global factors, including inflation concerns in the Eurozone and political instability in Japan and the UK, are contributing to a complex risk environment that supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [10] - The interplay of stagnant economic growth and inflationary pressures, described as "stagflation," enhances gold's role as a hedge [10] - The upcoming release of U.S. economic data, including factory orders and job openings, will be critical in shaping market expectations and gold prices [11]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to shrink, with the August PMI at 48.7, indicating a contraction for six consecutive months, which raises recession risks [2] - The high tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to increased costs for imported components, with the average tariff rate reaching a century high, negatively impacting the business environment [2] - The recent court ruling questioning the legality of most tariff measures has heightened market concerns about deteriorating trade relations and reduced tariff revenue, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The low manufacturing performance has intensified recession fears, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with expectations of a total cut of 57 basis points for the year [3] - The global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its holdings rise to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022, indicating strong demand for gold [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong bullish trend, achieving six consecutive days of gains, with the 5-day moving average acting as a crucial support level around 3480 [7] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3500, 3480, and the 3470-3466 range, while resistance levels are noted at 3558, 3570, 3582, and 3606 [8][9] - The current market structure indicates a strong bullish sentiment, with no clear signs of a corrective phase, suggesting a continued focus on long positions [7]

Group 1 - The UK 30-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 1998, reaching 5.69%, amid growing concerns over the sustainability of public finances [1] - The British pound has depreciated over 1%, marking its largest single-day decline since June 17, with the exchange rate against the US dollar falling to 1.33 and against the euro to 86.98 pence [1] - The UK government forecasts that fiscal spending will account for 60% of GDP, up from 53% during the pandemic, while revenue is expected to slightly decrease to below 40% of GDP, leading to a projected national debt of 274% of GDP by 2073 [1] Group 2 - Analysts express that the UK's fiscal situation remains precarious, with expectations of higher risk premiums for the pound as the autumn budget approaches [2] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, faces immense pressure to address a projected £50 billion fiscal deficit, with expectations of potential tax increases despite warnings that this could further suppress economic growth [2] - Opposition parties argue that increasing taxes would worsen the situation, advocating for spending cuts instead [2] Group 3 - Economists warn that Reeves' tax and spending policies could lead the UK towards a debt crisis similar to the 1970s, potentially necessitating assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [3] - The retail sector is also raising alarms about rising taxes and administrative burdens pushing the UK into a "stagflation" era, with food price inflation expected to remain around 5% next year [3] - The former director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) indicates that the current economic conditions could lead to a collapse, drawing parallels to the 1976 IMF intervention [3] Group 4 - A former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee highlights that the current situation resembles the 1970s, suggesting that Reeves' fiscal policies could lead to a crisis similar to the 1976 Healey crisis [4] - The increase in public spending, borrowing, and taxes is seen as a driver of both demand-pull and cost-push inflation, raising concerns about potential economic collapse if policies do not change [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of gold prices driven by weak economic data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, attracting Western financial investors [1][2] - Gold prices reached a four-month high, supported by optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following continuous weak economic indicators [1][2] - The market's strength is primarily driven by two factors: the confirmation of a rate cut cycle post-Jackson Hole meeting and Trump's announcement to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] Group 2 - The recent increase in gold prices is largely attributed to Western ETF funds and COMEX net long positions, contrasting with previous market dynamics where Asian investors and central banks were the main drivers [2] - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has sparked a significant legal dispute regarding the independence of the U.S. central bank, with Cook filing a lawsuit against Trump [2] - The U.S. durable goods orders for July showed a smaller-than-expected decline, with a preliminary month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, compared to an expected decrease of 4% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - US inflation shows resilience while employment weakens, and the window for the Fed's policy shift has opened. The core PCE inflation in July rebounded to 2.9%, but the market still widely expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, emphasizing the risk of a weakening job market and hinting at a possible interest - rate cut in September, which significantly increased the market's expectation of a rate cut [2]. - The Trump administration's global tariff policy was ruled illegal, but it remains effective until October 14 while the government appeals to the Supreme Court, and the final result will affect trillions of dollars in trade [3]. - In the context of "tariff disturbances + the Fed turning dovish", US Treasury yields will oscillate at high levels with downward potential. It is recommended to maintain medium - to - short - duration US Treasuries as the core allocation, and focus on investment - grade bonds in the credit bond market. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have allocation value [4]. Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents charts on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of US Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts of US Treasuries, and the implied interest - rate cut expectations in the federal funds rate futures market [12][13][21][23] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report includes charts on US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales volume year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [24][26][36][38][41][45][46] Exchange Rates - The report shows charts on the one - year trends and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year locked - in exchange cost of the US dollar against the RMB [49][50][56][58] Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - The report provides charts on the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, the returns in the past two weeks (by rating and industry), the net financing trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [62][64][66][67][71] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 9 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 1 rating withdrawal, 2 first - time ratings, and 3 rating downgrades, and specific information on each action is provided [74][75]

转自：新华财经 •海通期货：通胀风险难以消退 支撑黄金长期牛市延续 •金瑞期货：避险情绪升温 贵金属价格大涨 新湖期货表示，黄金上涨一方面是受益于市场对美联储年内降息预期的回升，另一方面来自于市场对美 联储独立性的担忧使得美元指数承压。特朗普罢免美联储理事库克事件持续发酵，在上周五的听证上， 法官未能立即裁决，并要求库克的律师提交补充意见，详细阐述解职行为违法的理由。库克暂时继续留 任，她仍将参加9月的利率决策会议。短期来看，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的决定是他上任以来对美 联储的第四次攻击，美联储的独立性堪忧，疲弱的美元将对金价形成一定支撑。中长期来看，央行购金 具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 关注本周美国8月非农就业数据。 资产战略国际（Asset Strategies International）总裁兼首席运营官Rich Checkan表示，目前投资者几乎确 信美联储将在9月的会议上降息，这有望成为金价进一步上涨的驱动。他认为，尽管金价突破3400美元 阻力位之后，获利回吐的时机可能已经成熟，但考虑到美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库存的事件让投 资 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and increasing investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6][7]. - As of August 30, spot gold rose by 0.9% to $3446.8 per ounce, with an accumulated increase of 4.8% for the month [2]. - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.2% to $3516.1 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [4]. Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly after the dismissal of a Fed governor, which has led to heightened investor anxiety and a shift towards gold [7]. - Analysts predict that the bullish trend in gold prices will continue, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $3570 per ounce by year-end and $4000 per ounce by 2026 [7][9]. - Factors such as declining interest rates, persistent inflation, and low economic growth are expected to support gold prices, as they create a favorable environment for gold as a safe-haven asset [9].