自2024年3月日本央行决定结束负利率政策、将政策利率从负0.1%提高到0至0.1%区间以来，日本 央行在行长植田和男执掌下致力于探索货币政策正常化。2024年7月和今年1月，日本央行两度加息。 新华社东京12月19日电（记者刘春燕）日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后决定，将政 策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%水平。日本政策利率由此达到30年来最高水平。 日本政策利率自1995年9月调降至0.5%后，货币政策长期保持宽松，甚至长期实施负利率政策。本 次加息是日本政策利率30年来首次突破0.5%。 由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策引发市场对日本财政恶化的忧虑，日本债券市场各种期限 的长期国债普遍遭投资者抛售，长期国债价格一跌再跌，收益率不断上扬，作为长期利率指标的新发10 年期国债收益率逼近2%。在通胀持续、日本实际利率持续为负背景下，投资者对日本央行加息预期不 断上升。（完） ...

新华财经东京12月19日电 日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后决定，将政策利率从0.5%上 调至0.75%水平。日本政策利率由此达到30年来的最高水平。 日本政策利率自1995年9月调降至0.5%后，货币政策长期保持宽松，甚至长期实施负利率政策。本次加 息是日本政策利率30年来首次突破0.5%瓶颈。 （文章来源：新华财经） 自2024年3月日本央行决定结束负利率政策、将政策利率从负0.1%提高到0至0.1%区间以来，日本央行 在行长植田和男的领导下一直致力于探索货币政策正常化。当年7月和今年1月，日本央行曾两度加息。 由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策引发市场对日本财政恶化的忧虑，日本债券市场各种期限的长 期国债普遍遭到投资者抛售，长债价格一跌再跌、收益率不断上扬，作为长期利率指标的新发10年期国 债收益率逼近2%。在通胀持续、日本实际利率持续为负背景下，投资者对日本央行加息预期不断上 升。 ...

新华财经东京12月19日电 日本总务省19日公布的报告显示，今年11月日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费 价格指数（CPI）同比上升3.0%至112.5，连续51个月同比上升。 数据显示，11月日本核心CPI同比升幅与上月持平，环比升幅为0.3%，略低于上月的0.4%。导致11月物 价继续上涨的最主要原因是食品，包括谷物、点心、预制食品、在外就餐、饮料、肉类、奶蛋类食品等 在内，与消费者餐桌相关的食品全面涨价。其中咖啡豆价格同比涨幅仍高达51.6%，普通粳米价格由于 去年价格高企，今年同比涨幅有所回落，但依然高达37.0%。此外，房屋修缮、电费、汽车相关费用、 通信费、酒店住宿等价格均呈现同比上涨。 由于日本首相高市早苗坚持积极财政政策加剧日元贬值，此间媒体和专家普遍忧虑其政策将进一步推动 日本物价上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 3.0% year-on-year to 112.5 in November, marking the 51st consecutive month of year-on-year increases [1] - The year-on-year increase in November's core CPI remained stable compared to the previous month, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, slightly lower than the 0.4% recorded in the prior month [1] Price Drivers - The primary driver of the price increase in November was food, with significant price hikes observed in grains, snacks, prepared foods, dining out, beverages, meat, and dairy products [1] - Coffee bean prices surged by 51.6% year-on-year, while the price of ordinary japonica rice saw a year-on-year increase of 37.0%, although this was a decrease from last year's high levels [1] - Other categories such as housing repairs, electricity, automotive-related expenses, communication fees, and hotel accommodations also experienced year-on-year price increases [1] Economic Policy Impact - Concerns have been raised by media and experts regarding Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide's commitment to an active fiscal policy, which is exacerbating the depreciation of the yen and potentially leading to further inflation in Japan [1]

Macro Research - The growth rate of narrow public budget revenue in China has slowed down, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.8% from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November was flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow public budget expenditure increased by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decrease of 3.7% in November compared to the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the decline [2] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant drop of 15.8% in November, primarily due to the adjustment in the real estate market [3] Company Research: AVIC Avionics (中航机载) - AVIC Avionics plans to acquire a 59.1816% stake in Hangtou Yuhua for 202 million yuan, aiming to enhance its industrial chain layout and strengthen synergy [7] - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 1.25% to 16.774 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit declined by 17.73% due to credit impairment losses [8] - The acquisition is expected to complement the industrial chain, with the five target companies each possessing unique technical expertise, which will help AVIC Avionics strengthen its collaborative capabilities and foster new growth points [7] Industry Research: Cultural Communication Industry - The IP food industry in China is rapidly growing, with the market size expected to increase from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, representing a CAGR of 18.2% [10] - The IP fun food segment, which combines food with collectible items, is projected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.6% [10] - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, as the differentiation of snack products is low, making cost control crucial [11] Company Research: Three Gorges Tourism (三峡旅游) - Three Gorges Tourism is expected to benefit from the planned construction of four inter-provincial vacation cruise ships, which will enhance overall customer spending and profit levels [27] - The company reported a 20.2% year-on-year increase in comprehensive tourism business revenue to 286 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a record high of 1.2525 million cruise passengers [28] - The inter-provincial cruise project is anticipated to provide a new growth driver, with the first two ships expected to be operational by June and December 2026 [29]

强化"投资于人"、坚持内需主导、经济转型持续推进 本报记者 孟珂 2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高质量发展注入强大 动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济 学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月 份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛表示，2026年，财政赤字率预计在4.0%至4.2%之间，赤字规模或较2025年温和增加，专 项债额度可能提升至4.5万亿元至4.7万亿元。超长期特别国债延续发行，规模有望在1.5万亿元至1.7万亿元，继续支持"两重"建 设、城市更新与战略性新兴产业布局。广义财政赤字率可能略抬升至9%左右。 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出端进一步强化"投资 于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a weakening trend in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure data for 2025, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth and a narrowing decline in expenditure [2][5][9] - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate from January to October [2][5] - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 164,814 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while November's fiscal revenue was 1.4 trillion yuan, remaining flat compared to the same month in 2024 [2][5] Group 2 - On the expenditure side, from January to November, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 1.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [2][8] - In November, the year-on-year expenditure growth rate was -3.7%, an improvement from October's -9.8%, but still at a low level due to last year's low base [2][8] - The structure of expenditure showed a decline in infrastructure spending, with a cumulative growth rate of -7.7%, while social welfare spending increased by 8.1% [8] Group 3 - The government fund revenue continued to be under pressure from the real estate sector, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9% from January to November 2025, and a significant drop of 15.8% in November alone [7] - The income from land use rights transfer saw a narrowing decline of 26.8%, indicating ongoing weakness in real estate demand [7] - Non-tax revenue has been in negative growth since May, with November's year-on-year decline narrowing to 10.8% from 32.8% in October, but still constraining overall revenue growth [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal sustainability through proactive fiscal policies and systematic management to support economic and social development over the next five years [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Strengthening macroeconomic regulation through fiscal policies to ensure market mechanisms are effective and to enhance the vitality of microeconomic entities [2] - The need for a balanced approach in fiscal macro-control to smooth short-term fluctuations and boost long-term development momentum [2] - Expansion of domestic demand and enhancement of technological innovation capabilities as key strategies for increasing fiscal sustainability [2] Group 2: Fiscal Resource Management - Improvement of fiscal resource allocation efficiency through comprehensive management and integration of budgetary resources [3] - Inclusion of all revenues derived from administrative power and state-owned resources into government budget management [3] - Establishment of a fiscal capacity assessment mechanism to ensure that major policies and projects are financially feasible [3] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Optimization of fiscal expenditure structure through zero-based budgeting reforms and a performance-oriented budget allocation mechanism [3] - Emphasis on ensuring essential expenditures while reducing unnecessary spending to enhance fiscal policy effectiveness [3] - Strengthening management of social welfare expenditures and improving the evaluation of fiscal support systems [3] Group 4: Risk Management - Establishment of a comprehensive monitoring and regulatory system for local debt to prevent and mitigate hidden debt risks [4] - Enhancement of the long-term sustainability of pension insurance systems and the safeguarding capabilities of medical insurance funds [4] - Development of a safety supervision system for social security funds to ensure their value preservation and growth [4]

《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出："发挥积极财政政策作用， 增强财政可持续性。"这为做好今后5年财政改革发展工作指明了方向，提供了重要遵循。 "十四五"时期，随着我国经济实力和综合国力稳步提升，财政收支规模不断扩大，财政制度和各领域财 税支持体制机制日益完善，经济社会发展后劲和财政可持续性不断增强。未来5年，应对我国经济社会 发展面临的风险和挑战，需要保持合适的财政支出强度、发挥好积极财政政策作用，同时也对防范化解 风险、增强财政可持续性等提出新的更高要求。一方面，财政收入增长面临较多约束，传统重点税源行 业增长放缓，战略性新兴产业及数字经济等发展迅速，但对税收贡献相对较小。另一方面，财政支出需 求持续增长，促消费、扩投资、稳就业、保民生等重点领域刚性支出不减，财政收支平衡压力持续加 大。同时，重点领域还有风险隐患，确保财政经济平稳运行面临新的挑战。 下一步，增强财政可持续性，需要树牢系统观念，坚持底线思维，统筹稳增长、防风险等多重目标，综 合施策，多管齐下，推动建设稳固平衡强大的国家财政，为经济社会高质量发展提供坚实财政保障。 第一，加强财政宏观调控，不断做大经济财政"蛋糕" ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to November indicates a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, but the growth rate is slowing down, reflecting economic pressures and constraints on local government spending [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, showing a deceleration compared to the previous months [1]. - The completion rate of general public budget revenue for the year is 91.2%, while expenditure stands at 83.7%, indicating a slower spending pace [1]. - The broad fiscal revenue for the same period completed 85.3% of the target, with broad fiscal expenditure at 80.7%, highlighting a significant lag in spending [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Constraints - The slow expenditure growth is attributed to pressures on fiscal revenue and constraints from local debt management and fiscal policies aimed at "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure" [2]. - Broad fiscal revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with government fund budget revenue dropping by 4.9%, indicating a worsening trend compared to earlier months [2]. - The focus on debt management has led to a preference for using fiscal funds for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments, which limits local spending willingness [2]. Group 3: Future Fiscal Policy and Projections - Analysts suggest that to enhance spending, existing fiscal tools should be utilized effectively, including accelerating the use of special bonds and ensuring timely disbursement of funds for new policies [4]. - The expectation is that if the current revenue growth trend continues, the public budget revenue will meet the annual target, with a potential surplus that could support future expenditures [4]. - The upcoming fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a similar expansionary stance as this year, with an emphasis on social welfare and consumption [8].