Core Insights - The OECD has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2%, while maintaining a 2.9% growth prediction for 2026, indicating a complex balance between resilient recovery and structural challenges in the global economy [1][6] - Emerging market economies are showing strong adaptability and are becoming a significant driver of growth, supported by companies preemptively adjusting production plans and inventory to avoid potential high tariff costs, creating a "rush to export" effect [1][6] - Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is accelerating globally, with a notable increase in digital transformation efforts and investments in AI technologies, particularly in China, where nearly 60% of global sovereign wealth funds plan to increase allocations to Chinese assets over the next five years, especially in the tech sector [1][6] Economic Risks - The report highlights rising tariff rates and renewed inflation pressures as key risks, with the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reaching 19.5%, the highest since 1933, and the full effects of these tariff increases yet to be realized [2][4] - The labor market is showing signs of fatigue, with the OECD predicting U.S. economic growth to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, and further to 1.5% in 2026, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at only 1.2% and 1.0% in the next two years [4][6] Policy Recommendations - The OECD suggests that international cooperation is crucial, advocating for increased transparency and predictability in trade policies while balancing economic security [5][6] - Countries are encouraged to deepen structural reforms to unlock the growth potential of new technologies like AI, fostering an innovative policy environment and enhancing collaboration in key technology areas [5][6]

措施包括对厨房橱柜、浴室洗手台及相关建材征收50%关税，对进口家具征收30%关税，并对专利及品牌药品加征100%关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间9月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"宣布，自10月1日起，美国将对多类进口产品实施新一轮高额关税。 ...

新华社布鲁塞尔9月25日电（记者康逸）美国政府24日表示，正式执行与欧盟达成的贸易协议，确认对 欧盟汽车及零部件征收15%的关税自8月1日起生效。欧洲观察人士认为，美国关税政策正给欧洲汽车业 带来严重冲击。 中欧数字协会主席路易吉·甘巴尔代拉表示，根据美欧达成的新贸易协议，美国对欧盟出口的汽车和零 部件征收15%的关税，税率仍远高于原来的2.5%。 "这无异于一记重击。"甘巴尔代拉说，汽车产业是欧洲经济一大支柱，德国、法国、意大利等国都依赖 庞大的汽车产业链，这一链条直接或间接关联数百万个工作岗位。美国关税政策将迫使欧洲车企要么自 行消化高昂成本，进一步压缩利润空间，要么将成本转嫁给消费者，导致市场份额遭到挤压。 自今年4月起，美国对进口汽车加征25%的关税，导致欧盟对美汽车出口遭遇高达27.5%的关税。 受美国关税政策冲击，2025年上半年欧洲五大汽车巨头利润均同比下滑或转为亏损。财报数据显示，大 众2025年上半年净利润为40.05亿欧元，同比下降37%。其中，因美国关税带来的额外成本高达13亿欧 元。宝马上半年净利润为40.15亿欧元，同比下滑29%。斯泰兰蒂斯集团更是因为推迟旗下美国品牌车 型的研发与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's international standing is declining due to various factors including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and recent U.S.-Russia talks [3]. Group 1: EU's Security and International Position - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz stated that the EU's security is under constant threat [3]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. trade policies are contributing to the EU's diminishing international status [3]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies - The U.S. government announced the implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU imported cars and automotive products starting August 1 [3]. - President Trump previously confirmed the new trade agreement, indicating that the 15% tariff rate was the best outcome achievable by the European Commission [3].

Group 1 - Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on key goods from countries without trade agreements, aiming to boost local industries and reduce reliance on Asian imports [2][3] - The proposed tariff increase includes a rise in import duties on automobiles to a maximum of 50%, significantly impacting Chinese automotive manufacturers [3][6] - The tariff adjustments will affect over 1,400 product categories, with an estimated total import value of $52 billion [3] Group 2 - The new tariffs are seen as a response to U.S. pressure and are intended to protect the Mexican economy, particularly the automotive sector [4][9] - Mexican officials emphasize that the tariffs will be implemented within World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines, aiming to safeguard local jobs [3][4] - The tariffs are expected to have a substantial impact on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, such as BYD and Tesla, while U.S. automakers with local production will not be affected [8][9] Group 3 - The increase in tariffs may hinder the strategy of Chinese manufacturers to use Mexico as a base for exporting to the U.S. market [8][9] - Local production and compliance with USMCA regulations are seen as essential for Chinese companies to remain competitive in Mexico [9][10] - Challenges for Chinese companies include establishing a robust supply chain, after-sales service networks, and overcoming market barriers [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is investigating imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices to lay the groundwork for new tariffs under President Donald Trump's administration [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce is conducting the investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the President to impose tariffs on goods deemed critical to national security [1] - The investigation was initiated on September 2, and the Commerce Department has 270 days to propose policy recommendations [1] Group 2: Implications for Industries - The new investigation increases the risk of tariffs for more industries, as the Trump administration aims to encourage domestic manufacturing by raising import costs [1] - Ongoing investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, aircraft, critical minerals, and medium and heavy trucks are also in progress [1] Group 3: Historical Context - The Trump administration has previously utilized Section 232 to impose tariffs on automobiles, copper, steel, and aluminum [1]

(经济观察)以行动捍卫多边贸易 中国作出重要承诺 中新社北京9月24日电 (记者 尹倩芸)当地时间9月23日，中国国务院总理李强在纽约出席第80届联合国 大会相关活动时宣布，中国作为负责任的发展中大国，在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中将不寻求新的特殊 和差别待遇。 此间学者认为，这一郑重承诺不仅是中国坚定支持多边主义的实质性举措，也是对维护以世界贸易组织 为核心的多边贸易体制的重要贡献。 特殊和差别待遇反映在世贸组织各项协定之中，是发展中成员的重要制度性权利，也是多边贸易体制的 重要基础。自2001年以发展中成员身份加入世贸组织以来，中国在合理行使该权利的同时，始终积极承 担与自身发展水平相适应的义务。 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢提到，中方在享受特殊和差别待遇的同时，积极参与多边 贸易谈判，结合自身发展水平和能力，自主务实处理具体议题谈判中涉及的特殊和差别待遇问题，为达 成多项世贸组织谈判成果、促进全球贸易更自由更便利作出重要贡献。 从对所有建交的最不发达国家100%税目产品实施零关税，到对53个非洲建交国实施100%税目产品零关 税举措，对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院教授崔凡称，作为最大的发展中国家， ...

Group 1 - Canadian Foreign Minister Anand plans to visit China and India in the coming weeks to improve strained relations with both countries [1] - Anand emphasizes the importance of bilateral relations with major economic powers in the Indo-Pacific region, focusing on trade, climate change, defense, and security [1] - The trade relationship between Canada and China has been negatively impacted by recent tariffs imposed by Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, leading to retaliatory measures from China [3][4] Group 2 - Canada is the world's largest producer and exporter of canola, accounting for over 50% of global trade, with China being a major destination for Canadian canola exports [3] - Following China's imposition of a temporary anti-dumping measure, the cost of exporting canola from Canada has surged, resulting in significant financial losses for Canadian farmers [4] - Tensions between Canada and India have escalated due to accusations related to the assassination of a Sikh leader, but diplomatic relations have recently shown signs of improvement [4]

在韩美关税谈判陷入僵局的情况下，22日，大韩商工会议所牵头协商对策，三星电子、现代汽车、SK、 LG等涵盖半导体、核电、造船、航空等领域的主要企业参会。企业方面提出三大紧迫诉求， 分别为缓解 造船等战略产业的关税负担、降低出口主力产品的关税冲击以及解决对美投资过程中的人员签证问题 。韩 国产业通商资源部也在昨天，与受美国关税影响的钢铝及衍生产品领域企业举行座谈会，表示当前出口环 境高度不确定，将新增一对一咨询服务，确保政府资金与扶持政策落实到位。 与此同时，韩美贸易谈判的博弈还在继续。今天，韩国负责贸易谈判的通商交涉本部长启程前往马来西亚 参加国际经济会议，计划再次与美国贸易代表进行关税谈判。 韩国总统李在明近期多次在外媒采访中表示，如果按照美方要求让步，可能导致韩国经济陷入危机，甚至 导致其本人遭到弹劾。韩联社评论称，相关表态可能意在借助国际舆论向美方施压，以在谈判中争取有利 空间。 来源：央视财经 韩国关税厅最新数据显示， 本月前20天，韩国日均出口总额同比下降超一成 。面对韩美关税不确定 性可能长期化， 韩国政府、企业与经济团体纷纷组织座谈会，研讨对策 。 韩国关税厅22日发布的数据显示， 本月1日至2 ...

Core Insights - Despite the high tariffs imposed by the U.S., China's export engine remains robust, heading towards a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion [1] - China has successfully diversified its export markets, with significant increases in exports to India, Africa, and Southeast Asia, compensating for reduced sales to the U.S. [1][3] - The competitive nature of Chinese exporters has allowed them to absorb some of the tariff impacts and adapt by shifting production to lower tariff countries [1][3] Trade Dynamics - China is currently the largest trading partner for over half of the world's countries, with only a few, like Mexico, openly adopting punitive measures against Chinese products [3] - Many countries are hesitant to engage in trade conflicts with China, likely influenced by ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [3][4] - Countries like South Africa and Brazil are opting for investment rather than punitive tariffs against Chinese products, indicating a preference for collaboration [4] Export Performance - In the first seven months of the year, Chinese electric vehicle exports, including brands like BYD and NIO, reached a total value of over $19 billion, maintaining levels from the previous year despite EU tariffs [6] - China's exports to India reached a record $12.5 billion last month, driven by the demand for components and products, showcasing the interdependence in supply chains [5] - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan has further enhanced the competitiveness of Chinese exports, with the currency at its lowest effective exchange rate since December 2011 [5] Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% to 13 trillion yuan, while imports fell by 2.7% [7] - The overall performance of China's foreign trade is seen as resilient, with a focus on maintaining growth amidst rising global protectionism [7][8]