为有效应对全球化趋势的改变，以及气候变化等长期挑战，世界银行呼吁要进行技术变革、国内改革以 及深化国际和地区合作等。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）、《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关 系协定》（CPTPP）和《东盟数字经济框架协议》（DEFA）等区域贸易协定，都将有力应对全球化趋 势改变带来的影响。 展望地区发展前景，贸易政策的进一步恶化、全球经济的急剧放缓、全球金融市场的动荡，以及地缘政 治经济紧张局势的升级，都将进一步拉低地区经济增长预期。美国经济若突然走弱，将严重冲击柬埔 寨、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南、老挝等出口导向型经济体。而大宗商品价格下跌，则会影响印 尼、马来西亚、缅甸、老挝等资源出口国的利益。美国等发达经济体长期维持的高利率，不仅会对东帝 汶、柬埔寨、老挝等严重依赖外部融资的较小经济体带来更大风险，也会导致菲律宾、泰国、马来西亚 等国家和地区金融市场波动。2024年末以来，印尼盾的持续贬值、股票市场的资金外流以及债券收益率 的不断攀升，都反映出投资者的谨慎态度。 （文章来源：经济日报） 世界银行近期发布报告显示，东亚和太平洋地区，正由于受全球经济政策不确定性上升、贸易限制措施 增多以及大型 ...

Group 1 - The international monetary system is expected to diversify, with currencies like the Renminbi and Euro gaining prominence as the credibility of the US dollar faces systemic challenges due to rising debt and fiscal deficits [2][3] - The need for global multilateralism is emphasized as a response to the current international order challenges, with the potential for crises to reshape the global system [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are anticipated to play more significant roles in the evolving international monetary landscape, with regional development banks also becoming increasingly important [3] Group 2 - China is adopting proactive fiscal policies to counter external uncertainties, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a primary task [4][5] - The attractiveness of the Chinese market remains strong, supported by a robust economic foundation and a large pool of skilled labor, which enhances its appeal for foreign investment [4] - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to enhance their resilience against external shocks through technological innovation and diversification of markets, while also expanding their global footprint [5]

据海关总署最新数据，前4个月中国进出口总值同比增长2.4%，其中出口同比增长7.5%。此间学者认 为，这一积极表现得益于官方接连出台政策、企业灵活调整战略等多方面因素，但因外部风险仍存，不 能掉以轻心。 最大的挑战源自贸易保护主义。中国银行研究院研究员刘佩忠指出，未来美关税政策不确定性仍较大， 将从贸易投资、金融市场、信心预期等多方面对全球造成冲击，叠加上年同期基数走高，短期内中国出 口增长将承压。 精准"出牌"稳外贸，是中国应对不确定性的关键。分析认为，从近期官方释放信息看，中国稳外贸着眼 从三方面发力。 其一，进一步扩大开放。 中新社北京5月18日电 (尹倩芸)应对外部不确定性，中国近期打出多张"政策牌"，以期为外贸解忧。 商务部部长王文涛此前调研指出，面对复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升的外部环境，国内市场是外贸企 业的坚强后盾，要更好发挥超大国内市场优势，以国内大循环的稳定性和确定性，助力企业应对外部冲 击。 数据显示，自商务部4月启动"外贸优品中华行"活动以来，截至5月初，已累计达成采购意向逾167亿元 (人民币，下同)，吸引2400多家外贸企业和6500多家采购商参加。京东、美团等电商平台也以流量扶 ...

Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]

美国从世界第二逐步崛起为全球超级大国，这一过程经历了两次世界大战和冷战的洗礼。背后发生了许多重大事件，推动美国一步步解决危机，最终稳坐全 球领导者的位置。对于当今的我们，如何从中汲取经验教训具有重要意义。而美国的百年变局，为我们提供了这个答案。 在本期的内容中，我们将继续讨论美国的第二次改革，分析这一系列举措如何为二战和冷战的到来做了充分准备。前期，我们讲述了美国的第一次改革，如 何让美国为第一次世界大战的爆发做好了充足的准备。 前文提到，20世纪20年代后期，美国第一次改革的大部分政策逐步被废除，最终导致了严重的金融危机。1930年至1933年间，美联储接连失败，四次重大银 行业崩溃让整个经济体系摇摇欲坠。这些教训对美联储而言是痛苦而深刻的，毕竟作为一个新兴机构，没有经过风雨的洗礼，很难获得真正的经验和智慧。 在此期间，美国还爆发了美元与英镑的竞争，美元一度成为全球最大货币。然而，由于美联储缺乏足够的经验，最终被英国金融策略打败，英镑重新夺回了 全球货币的主导地位。英国在金融战中的经验积淀，使得美元难以维持其霸主地位。但这一战局并未改变美国崛起的大势所趋，毕竟英国工业的竞争力已经 无法与美国抗衡，而且殖民地 ...

Group 1 - Chilean President Boric's visit to China marks a new chapter in China-Chile cooperation, with multiple bilateral cooperation agreements signed in various fields [1] - China has been Chile's largest trading partner for several years, with Chile being China's third-largest trading partner in Latin America [1][3] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Chile is projected to reach $61.69 billion, which is 8.6 times the volume before the China-Chile Free Trade Agreement came into effect [2] Group 2 - The bilateral trade between China and Chile has shown significant growth, with a historical high of 163.19 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [3] - Chilean cherries are particularly popular in China, especially during the Chinese New Year, due to their quality and flavor [4] - There is potential for further growth in high-tech products such as machinery and electronics in the bilateral trade between China and Chile [5] Group 3 - Chinese investments in Chile have rapidly increased, particularly in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and mining sectors, with a direct investment stock of approximately $1.6 billion by the end of 2023 [5] - Both countries are looking to deepen cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and green energy [6] - The collaboration between China and Chile is seen as significant in the context of current geopolitical tensions, with both countries aiming to enhance their economic and strategic goals through cooperation [6]

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 苹果公司前脚刚传出欲加快将销往美国市场的iPhone全部转移至印度生产的消息，后脚就被特朗普公开 点名"敲打"。 据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）15日报道，当天在卡塔尔首都多哈与企业高管会面时，特朗普 表示，他已向苹果公司首席执行官库克明确表示，他不希望这家美国科技巨头在印度生产产品。他还批 评了苹果将生产线从中国分散至其他地区的做法，并敦促其将生产重心转向美国本土。 "昨天，我和蒂姆·库克有点小矛盾，" 特朗普说，"我对他说，'我的朋友，我待你不薄。你带着5000亿 美元投资来这里（美国），但现在我听说你要在印度各地建厂扩产。我不希望你在印度建厂。'" 白宫已低调豁免手机、电脑等产品的所谓"对等关税"，但《华尔街日报》早前指出，由于深度参与中国 市场这一遭到特朗普政府全球关税施压的主要目标，苹果在上个月已经成为受冲击最严重的科技巨头之 一。投资者正密切关注其将销往美国设备的最终组装环节转移至印度和其他国家的进展。 另据路透社报道，4月底，有知情人士透露，苹果公司正加速推进供应链转移，计划最快于2026年将面 向美国市场销售的iPhone生产线全部转移至印度，以减少对中国供应 ...

【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银】据韩联社14日报道，韩国开发研究院（KDI）发布最新经济展 望，将2025年韩国经济增长率预期大幅下调至0.8%。这是韩国权威智库首次预测今年经济增速将跌破 1%，引发"经济衰退"担忧。韩国《朝鲜日报》报道称，如果经济增长确实为0.8%，2025年将成为韩国 自1990年以来增长第二疲弱的一年，仅次于2020年（-0.7%）的经济收缩。 根据KDI预测，韩国今年上半年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率仅为0.3%，下半年回升至1.3%，全年增长 率将止步于0.8%。而在今年2月，KDI预计全年将增长1.6%。短短三个月内，增长预期"腰斩"，反映出 经济前景持续恶化。KDI在报告中表示，外部环境恶化与内需持续疲软是拖累韩国经济的主要因素。一 方面，美欧贸易保护主义抬头，全球需求走弱，韩国出口动能放缓；另一方面，受房地产市场低迷、利 率高企、家庭消费信心不足等影响，内需复苏步履维艰。此外，美国贸易政策引发全球经贸摩擦，令韩 国经济面临更高风险。 在此背景下，韩国总统选举候选人纷纷将"经济民生"置于竞选核心。共同民主党候选人李在明主张，重 塑"公平公正"的市场秩序是经济复苏的前提，承诺遏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's trade protectionism is reshaping the operational logic of the U.S. real estate market, with economists warning that 2025 may be a critical turning point due to the combined pressures of trade policy and economic cycles [1] Supply-Side Impact - The latest financial report from builder PulteGroup reveals the transmission effects of tariffs, with key building materials like bathroom fixtures and tiles seeing procurement costs rise due to a 10% global tariff policy, despite temporary exemptions for materials like copper and lumber [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) indicates that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% since 2020, with tariff-related costs accounting for 19% of this increase [2] - Labor market constraints are exacerbated by tightened immigration policies, leading to a labor shortage of 300,000 in the construction industry, which directly raises labor costs [2] - Developer willingness to start new projects has dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to the dual pressures of material tariffs and labor shortages [2] Demand-Side Pressure - Housing affordability is experiencing systemic deterioration, with the median U.S. household income now allocating 34% to mortgage payments, surpassing the historical warning line since the 1980s [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remains high at 6.8%, having doubled from its 2020 low, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates [2] - The Case-Shiller index shows that home prices are rising at a rate that consistently exceeds CPI growth, with actual home prices up 89% from their 2012 low [2] - Core inflation in housing rent has increased by 5.7% year-over-year, contributing significantly to price stickiness [2] Monetary Policy Dilemma - The structure of inflation is forcing monetary policy into a dilemma, with the Federal Reserve's vice chairman acknowledging that supply-side inflation from trade policies is undermining the effectiveness of demand management policies [4] - Market expectations indicate that there is less than 50 basis points of room for interest rate cuts before 2026, suggesting that mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period [4] Regional Disparities - Structural adjustments in the market are leading to increasing regional disparities, with cities in the Midwest like Chicago and Detroit maintaining a reasonable price-to-income ratio of 4.2, while high-cost areas like San Jose and Honolulu exceed 12 [5] - Fairweather warns that simply addressing spatial mismatches will not resolve fundamental issues for employment groups reliant on high-paying sectors like technology and finance [5] Proposed Solutions - To address systemic challenges, Fairweather suggests multi-layered solutions, including establishing a special impact assessment mechanism for tariff policies on the real estate market at the federal level [5] - At the local level, reforms to "Planning Commission 2.0" should incorporate housing affordability metrics into land development approval processes [5] - The housing crisis is fundamentally a failure of public policy, necessitating a comprehensive response framework that includes immigration, trade, and monetary policies [5]

美联储内部形成微妙共识分歧：政策制定者对外释放的信号充满张力。戴利坚持认为，劳动力市场供需 平衡持续改善，工资增速逐步回归常态化，通胀下行趋势未改；但美联储副主席杰斐逊却敲响警钟，指 出企业投资信心和家庭消费预期已现疲态，需警惕经济动能衰减的早期预警。特别值得注意的是，杰斐 逊将特朗普关税政策明确列为重大风险变量，认为贸易保护主义升级可能阻断通胀回落进程，甚至催生 新的物价上涨压力。这种"谨慎乐观与风险预警并存"的表述，折射出决策层对经济前景的研判分歧正在 扩大。 市场与联储的博弈进入关键阶段：尽管政策制定者保持战略定力，但利率期货市场已提前押注降息周 期。交易员普遍预期，美联储将在9月议息会议启动首次降息。但历史经验显示，市场预期与政策实操 往往存在时滞。当前局面的转折点取决于两个关键变量：若核心通胀出现顽固化迹象，或关税政策冲击 导致经济数据超预期恶化，美联储可能被迫调整政策路径；反之，若就业市场保持韧性、消费支出维持 稳定，降息窗口或将继续后移。这场关乎经济数据解读的博弈，正在进入最微妙的观察期。 通胀数据呈现的矛盾图景令决策更为复杂：4月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增幅收窄至2.3%，创2021 年以 ...