Core Insights - The U.S. unemployment rate for November reached 4.6%, exceeding expectations of 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [3] - The U.S. November core CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.6%, lower than the expected 3% [3] - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November increased by 64,000, surpassing the forecast of 50,000 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 13 were 224,000, slightly below the expected 225,000 [3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December was finalized at 52.9, a slight increase from November's 51.0, but still down 28.5% year-on-year [3] Upcoming Events - On December 23, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes from its October monetary policy meeting [4] - The U.S. will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 [4] - The U.S. will also release preliminary figures for Q3 real GDP and core PCE price index on December 24 [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market strengthened ahead of the weekend, with prices reaching daily highs due to a decline in U.S. consumer confidence and a decrease in inflation expectations [1][4] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with prices above key moving averages and higher highs and lows indicating an intact upward trend [2][5] - Key resistance is noted at around $4360, with potential to test historical highs of $4381 and further target $4400 if broken [2][5] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a brief rebound after hitting a low of $54.98 per barrel, closing at $56.54 for WTI and $60.47 for Brent, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [3][6] - The technical structure for oil remains bearish, with prices within a mid-term descending channel and significant resistance between $57.5 and $58.5 [3][6] - Key support is identified in the $55 to $55.5 range, with risks of further declines if this level is breached [3][6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.21 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上 涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美 债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、 日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国消费者信心在12月小幅回升，但升幅低于市场预期，整体情绪仍处于低位，反 映出高生活成本和就业前景不明朗持续压制消费者信心。 为防止就业市场进一步恶化，美联储本月早些时候连续第三次下调利率。不过，决策层在明年的利率路 径上仍存在分歧，需要在支撑就业与防范通胀反弹之间寻求平衡。 密歇根大学周五公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心指数终值上升1.9点至52.9，略低于经济学家给出的 53.5的预期中值。该指数较前月改善，但仍显著低迷。 密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu在声明中表示，尽管年底出现一些改善迹象，消费者信心仍比 2024 年 12 月低近 30%，家庭收支压力仍然主导着消费者对经济的看法。 从分项指标看，当前状况指数下滑至50.4，创历史新低，而预期指数则升至四个月高点。消费者对购买 汽车、家电等大额商品的当前购买条件评价恶化至纪录最低水平，显示高物价环境仍显著抑制消费意 愿。 分析指出，生活成本高企以及对就业市场的担忧，是拖累消费者信心徘徊在历史低位附近的主要原因。 个人财务状况的不安情绪，已成为未来家庭支出前景面临的重要风险因素，尽管迄今为止消费整体仍保 持韧性。 就业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists have slightly raised their growth expectations for the US economy, indicating a more optimistic outlook for GDP growth in the coming years [1] Economic Growth - The projected GDP growth rate for the US in 2026 has been adjusted from 1.9% to 2% [1] - The growth expectation for 2025 has also been revised to 2% [1] Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations have slightly decreased, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2026 anticipated to be 2.8%, suggesting that price pressures are gradually easing [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rates remain unchanged, with forecasts indicating that the Federal Reserve's policy rate will decline to 3.25% by the end of 2026, suggesting a potential gradual easing of monetary policy [1]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 主升浪正当时：黄金守正，白银出奇 ---2026 年贵金属期货行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 期 货 研 究 所 2026 年我们整体判断，在经历了中美博弈、俄乌谈判、美联储主席换届等高度的政策不确定性风险之后，2026 年宏观市场在政治扰动侧的波动率会有所下降，从而削弱黄金计价避险的动能，交易线条会整聚焦于更可预判的经济 动能和财政货币政策。黄金方向不变的情况下涨幅或有收敛，2026 年黄金高点看 4700 美元/盎司左右，重心在 4400- 4500 美元/盎司附近，下方 4100-4200 美金/盎司有较强支撑。2026 年处于明确的财政货币双扩张的周期，天然流动 性利好贵金属板块，但影响或较为温和。同时，长线来看大国冲突常态没有改变，但是冲突会改变战场，且需要关注 美国对美元主导力的争夺。另外，我们利用购买力模型锚定黄金远期空间，仍值得期待。 白银方面，我们提出，白银成为优质多配品种，2026 年行情必会更为耀眼。一是贵金属长期配置方向和逻辑不 改，提供宽松背景；二是白银现货矛盾成为常态，一旦风 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. Gold and silver prices initially rose but then fell. The gold-silver ratio is at a low level, and gold prices still have support. Silver prices still have capital support, but risk appetite may fluctuate significantly on the triple witching day of US stocks [4][5] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting gold and silver prices, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. On Friday, the triple witching day of US stocks, gold prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $4363.9 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: The US CPI cooled more than expected, but the data was questioned. The increase in lithium carbonate prices converged, and silver prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 2.17% to $65.45 per ounce [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -5.8, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6 kilograms to 91716 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is -26, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, which is neutral. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 240 kilograms to 912164 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5] 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple important events and data releases today, including the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, speeches by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials, US November existing home sales, and the final value of the US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index [4][5][14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The Fed's interest rate cut and the optimistic expectation of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have both positive and negative impacts, and the upward momentum of gold prices exists but is limited [9] - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. There are both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil, inflation concerns, and the impact of tariffs [12][13] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position volume on December 18 was 195,799, an increase of 2,994 or 1.55% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 54,671, a decrease of 906 or 1.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 141,128, an increase of 3,900 or 2.84% compared to December 17 [4][29] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased. The long position volume on December 18 was 397,940, a decrease of 11,017 or 2.69% compared to December 17. The short position volume was 289,399, a decrease of 14,052 or 4.63% compared to December 17. The net position was 108,541, an increase of 3,035 or 2.88% compared to December 17 [5][31]

回顾欧洲央行2025年降息历程，其在1月、3月、4月、6月议息会议上连续4次各降息25个基点，此后在7 月、9月、10月、12月议息会议上又连续4次暂停降息，全年累计降息4次，合计100个基点。从整体节奏 看，欧洲央行在下半年逐渐偏"鹰"，背后是欧元区通胀整体保持稳定和经济展现出韧性。 在今晚发布的声明中，欧洲央行表示，更新后的评估结果再次确认，中期内欧元区通胀应该能稳定在 2%的目标水平，不过欧洲央行也同时上调了2026年通胀预期，因为预计服务业通胀下降速度将更为缓 慢。欧洲央行预计，欧元区2025年整体通胀率平均为2.1%，2026年至2028年分别为1.9%、1.8%、 2%。 对于后续货币政策调整方向，欧洲央行今晚继续重申，将遵循数据依赖和逐次会议决策的方法来确定适 当的货币政策立场，并未预先承诺特定的利率路径。 北京时间12月18日晚，欧洲央行公布12月利率决议，这也是其2025年最后一份利率决议。欧洲央行决 定，继续将存款机制利率、主要再融资利率以及边际贷款利率维持现有水平不变，三大关键利率分别报 2%、2.15%、2.4%。这也是继7月、9月、10月会议暂停降息后，欧洲央行连续第四次"按兵不动" ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, aligning with market expectations, while the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [1] - The ECB has raised its growth and inflation forecasts for the Eurozone, projecting GDP growth rates of 1.4% for this year, 1.2% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027, which are higher than previous estimates [2] - The ECB has slightly increased its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, now expecting inflation rates of 2.1% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027, indicating a more optimistic outlook [2] Group 2 - Financial markets are beginning to price in the possibility of an interest rate hike by the end of next year or early 2027, although most economists surveyed expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027 [5] - The ECB has reiterated its flexibility in setting borrowing costs based on the latest data, emphasizing that it will not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance [4] - Factors that could exert pressure on inflation include a stronger euro and potential faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve under new leadership, which may lead to a further decline in the dollar [3]

【导读】超级央行周持续推进，瑞典央行、挪威央行均 " 按兵不动 " 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！超级央行周进入尾声，来一起关注海外央行的最新动态～ 12 月 18 日， 瑞典央行 宣布维持政策利率在 1.75% 不变，符合市场预期。 无独有偶，当日 挪威央行 宣布将政策利率维持在 4% 不变。对于部分欧洲国家而言，宽松周期或许将告一段落。 来看详情 —— 瑞典央行指出，尽管通胀每月略有波动，但整体上与瑞典央行 9 月份的预测一致，接近 2% 。指标继续支持通胀压力与未来目标相符的图 景。 瑞典央行表示，与 9 月份的预测相比，经济增长有所提升，经济活动预计更为强劲。劳动力市场形势依然疲弱，但明显有所改善。尽管经 济形势恢复正常还需要一段时间，但执行委员会相信复苏已经开始。 总体来看，瑞典央行认为，经济前景稍好，通胀预期将保持稳定。执行委员会评估，维持当前政策利率水平有助于增强国内需求，从而促 进经济活动发展。 因此，执行委员会决定将政策利率维持在 1.75% 不变。如果通胀和经济前景维持，政策利率预计将在未来一段时间内维持在这个水平。 瑞典央行：维持基准利率 1.75% 不变 未来一段时间将维持该利率 12 ...