【美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期创2001年10月以来最大环比降幅】美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数初值 60.5，创2024年1月以来最大升幅，预期 53.6，前值 52.2。 美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 4.1%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.2%。 美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 5.1%，预期 6.4%，前值 6.6%。 ...

提醒：北京时间22:00，将公布美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预 期初值、美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值。 ...

Group 1 - Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, which may lead to a prolonged operation to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - The attack caused market turmoil, with U.S. stock index futures declining, oil prices surging, gold prices rising, and the U.S. dollar index strengthening [1] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical conflict could lead to increased inflation expectations, impacting fixed income markets and potentially pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold have also strengthened [2] - The global stock market, which has seen a 30% increase in the MSCI global index this year, may face further declines as the conflict acts as a catalyst for price corrections [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, energy stocks, and defense companies are expected to perform well due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil market [2] Group 3 - The scale and impact of the attack remain unclear, leading to limited market volatility despite a rush into safe-haven assets [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical conflict adds to the fragile market sentiment, with the potential for either a quick de-escalation or an escalation that threatens oil transport routes [3]

英国央行调查：公众对明年到两年期间的通胀预期维持在3.2%，未发生变化。 ...

英国央行调查：英国公众对五年后通胀预期为3.6%。 ...

证券研究报告 宽观 关税"脉冲"引起贸易量波动 |关税 影响高频跟踪(6月12日) 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 概览:5月以来关税"脉冲"轨迹初步显现,贸易量上,高频数据显示5月 美国进口偏弱,预计6月有所修复,但或难回到一季度的较高水平;通胀上, 微观数据显示 5月底以来价格小幅上行,关税的价格压力仍在传导;企业信 心上,5月有所修复但仍处低位,后续修复速率或相对缓慢。总体来看,虽 然"美丽大法案"或于7月通过,带来新一轮财政扩张,美国经济大概率避 免陷入衰退,但7月9日后的贸易走势值得观察。 贸易高频跟踪显示,5月美国进口偏弱,预计6月将有所回升。5月中美关 税降级以来,运价明显回升,显示贸易需求有所升温。但集装箱数据显示, 5月美国自全球进口整体偏弱,自中国进口显著回落。但自越南等国家进口 维持较高水平,背后是关税以及贸易分流的影响(图表 3-6)。6月以来数据 显示. 6月中下旬美国进口或有所回升:6月以来,中国发往美国的集装箱 数量低位回升,考虑到中国到美国海运需要 2-4周,对应6月中下旬美国自 中国进口的回升:6月中下旬洛杉矶港到港量同比增速预测也明显回升,佐 证上述判断 ...

方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月13日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250613 重点推荐 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关键——海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据 ➢ 2.制冷剂行业延续高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3.己二酸短期基本面有望向好，关注一体化龙头企业——基础化工行业简评 ➢ 1.央行、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支持福建探索海峡两岸融合发展新路 建设两岸融 合发展示范区的若干措施》 ➢ 2.国务院总理李强会见欧洲中央银行行长拉加德 ➢ 3.特朗普准备签署美英贸易协议的关键部分 ➢ 4.美国公布5月PPI数据 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW ...

展望后市，分析师认为如果冲突升级，黄金将突破前期高位，再创历史新高，油价将突破120美元。 以色列空袭伊朗，中东地缘政治紧张局势升级，令金价、油价齐飞。金价攀升至本周新高，并逼近4月的前期高 位。国际布伦特油价和美国WTI油价也均飙升超过10%。 投资者对美联储9月降息的预期增强，再叠加中东地区可能爆发的冲突风险，正在共同推动黄金作为避险资产的需 求激增，一些分析师预期，金价或将突破4月高点，再创新高。油价在出现冲突再升级的最坏情况下，也有可能突 破120美元/桶。 同样飙升的还有油价。今日亚太交易时段，WTI原油飙升10.21%，报74.99美元/桶；布伦特原油涨10.286%，至 76.48美元/桶。 研究公司MST Marquee的能源研究主管卡瓦尼克（Saul Kavonic）分析称："去年，原油市场在很大程度上摆脱了 地缘政治风险。而近期这些事态发展，再度给市场敲响了警钟，让投资者意识到，这些风险比许多人预期的更切 实、更迫在眉睫。该袭击也可能也会给美伊谈判施压。" Lipow Oil Associates的总裁力普（Andy Lipow）表示，石油市场现在担心伊朗将通过攻击以色列或美国目标进行 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating monetary policies, with key factors influencing gold prices identified to assist investors in navigating the complex economic landscape [1]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the holding cost of gold, attracting global buyers [3]. - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in this non-yielding asset [3]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as wars and banking crises, drive safe-haven investments into gold [3]. - Economic recession or increased uncertainty prompts investors to prefer gold as a safe asset [3]. - Rising inflation expectations position gold as an effective hedge against inflation, drawing in more funds [3]. - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to unexpected events like pandemics or natural disasters [3]. - Global monetary policy easing, including rate cuts or quantitative easing, releases liquidity that partially flows into the gold market [3]. - The onset of financial crises enhances the appeal of gold's value preservation function [3]. - Strong demand during market consumption peaks from jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors boosts gold prices [3]. - Weak US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, raise concerns about the economy, thereby increasing gold demand [3]. Factors Leading to Gold Price Declines - The appreciation of the US dollar attracts capital inflows, diminishing gold's appeal [4]. - Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase the returns on risk-free assets, leading to decreased demand for gold [4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven buying pressure on gold [5]. - Strong economic recovery raises risk appetite, diverting funds to higher-yielding assets like stocks and real estate [5]. - Declining inflation expectations weaken the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [5]. - Reduced safe-haven sentiment due to diminished impacts from pandemics or disasters leads to a rational market return [5]. - Tightening monetary policies, including rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, withdraw liquidity and pressure gold prices [5]. - Resolution of financial crises leads to capital exiting gold investments [5]. - An oversupply of gold, such as central bank sales or increased mining output, can suppress prices [5]. - Positive US economic indicators strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Gold Market Outlook for 2025 - The international situation remains volatile, with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike pace while inflation data stays concerning, and pressures in the European and American banking systems are not fully resolved, indicating that gold still holds certain investment value [7]. Key Indicators for Gold Investors - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes, including interest rate decisions and FOMC meeting minutes [8]. - Keeping an eye on US employment and inflation data, such as NFP, CPI, and PCE [8]. - Observing significant global geopolitical events, including wars, terrorist attacks, and sudden financial incidents [8]. - Tracking central bank gold purchasing behaviors, particularly from emerging market central banks [8]. - Gold is viewed as a "hard currency" that reflects deep dynamics within the global economic and financial system, with investment strategies suggested for both conservative and aggressive investors [8].

日本央行预计通胀将强于预期 金十数据6月13日讯，据知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为，物价上涨幅度略高于今年早些时候的预 期，这一因素可能为讨论是否在全球贸易紧张局势缓解的情况下加息打开了大门。知情人士说，官员们 预计，在下周为期两天的会议结束时，日本央行的基准利率将维持在0.5%不变，因为他们需要监测全 球关税谈判的进展及其对经济的影响。但知情人士表示，如果事实证明关税措施对基本价格趋势的破坏 性不太大，官员们将认为这支持讨论是否加息。这些人的言论表明，如果全球贸易形势更加明朗，日本 央行可能会在今年年底前加息。 ...