Group 1: Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and continuity in economic policies, with a focus on achieving high-quality development and addressing risks effectively [2][3] - The overall tone of the meeting was more positive compared to previous assessments, with a commitment to achieving the annual economic growth target despite external uncertainties [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4][6] - There is potential for further interest rate cuts, as the emphasis on reducing comprehensive financing costs suggests room for monetary easing [4][5] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively unleash domestic demand, focusing on both goods and service consumption, and implementing special actions to boost consumption [7][8] - The importance of expanding effective investment and stimulating private investment was also underscored, with specific measures to support consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Market Competition - The meeting stressed the need to promote a unified national market and optimize market competition, addressing issues of disorderly competition among enterprises [9][10] - Policies aimed at regulating competition and eliminating unfair practices were reiterated, with a focus on enhancing the overall business environment [11][12]

就当前经济形势和下半年经济工作 中共中央召开党外人士座谈会 习近平主持并发表重要讲话 习近平强调，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思 维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。下半年，要在宏观政策上持续发力、适 时加力，重点做好全方位扩大内需、坚定不移深化改革扩大开放、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发 展、持续防范化解重点领域风险、多措并举保障改善民生等工作。 习近平指出，上半年，各民主党派中央、全国工商联和无党派人士紧扣中共中央重大决策部署，聚焦经 济社会发展中的一些重点难点问题深入调研、建言献策，积极开展民主监督，体现了在中国共产党领导 下团结合作的政治担当和实干精神。他代表中共中央向大家表示衷心感谢。 习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出两点希望。一是统一思想认识，凝聚广泛共识。深 刻理解把握中共中央关于当前经济形势的分析判断和经济工作的指导思想、大政方针、重要部署，多做 宣传政策、解疑释惑、理顺情绪、凝聚共识的工作，汇聚起团结奋斗的强大正能量。二是立足自身优 势，推动高质量发展。结合履职选准调研题目，统筹用好各类资源和专业智库，提出更 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve economic goals for the year [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the livelihood orientation of policies [2][3] - There is a need to boost consumer confidence and continue implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, as the recovery of the consumption market still requires solid foundations [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while also increasing commodity consumption [3][4] - Service consumption is seen as a key driver for improving livelihoods and promoting consumption industry upgrades, which will help achieve a rapid growth in overall consumption [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting called for specific arrangements to deepen the construction of a unified national market, optimizing market competition order and regulating chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] - There is a focus on controlling new production capacity and optimizing existing capacity in industries facing severe competition, as well as regulating local government investment behaviors [5] - Strengthening the role of price regulation and quality standards is crucial for allowing high-quality products to thrive in the market [5]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session in October, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue and enhance efforts to boost consumption and strengthen the domestic capital market [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China expressed welcome for foreign investment, including from U.S. companies, to share development opportunities [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a budget of 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies, with applications opening in late August [3] Group 2 - The Hubei humanoid robot fund has launched with an initial investment of 5 billion yuan, focusing on the development of robotics technology [6] - The China Coking Industry Association has called for an increase in coke prices, with specific price adjustments announced for various types of coke effective July 31 [7] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted trading limits for certain contracts related to industrial silicon and lithium carbonate [8] Group 3 - CATL reported a net profit of 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 33.02%, and announced a cash dividend of 10.07 yuan per share [9] - Vanke A announced a loan of up to 869 million yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group [10] - Long River Power plans to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project [10] Group 4 - Lide Man plans to acquire up to 70% of a tuberculosis diagnostic screening company, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [11] - Dongxin Co. announced ongoing product optimization for its chip products, which have not yet generated revenue [12] - The stock of Hehua Co. is suspended due to plans for a change in control [13] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged [15] - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1 [18] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [21] Group 6 - Microsoft reported fourth-quarter revenue of $76.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, exceeding expectations [22] - Qualcomm's third-quarter adjusted revenue was $10.37 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net income rising by 25% [23]

Economic Overview - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the meeting noting "major economic indicators performing well" [1] - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow from 3.3% last year to 3% this year, posing external challenges to China's economy [1] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on "steady employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [2] - No mention of "incremental policies," indicating a preference for stability over aggressive new measures [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The focus is on effective execution of existing policies, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, the highest in history, with limited likelihood of additional fiscal tools being introduced this year [3] Consumer Spending - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption, with initiatives like a 300 billion yuan fund for trade-in programs and 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [4] - Emphasis on both goods and service consumption to stimulate domestic demand [4] Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [6] - The external trade environment remains challenging, with potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. [6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - Focus on high-quality urban renewal projects, with attention to potential policy changes in major cities regarding housing market restrictions [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with continued support for equity markets [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that due to reduced likelihood of aggressive macro policy adjustments, funds may shift towards safer assets, with a focus on sectors like consumption and technology [7] - The consumption sector is anticipated to experience a rebound following recent policy announcements [7] Debt Market Outlook - The monetary policy stance remains unchanged, with a low probability of broad-based interest rate cuts, but potential targeted measures if new risks arise [8] - The bond market is expected to face limited risks, with conditions favorable for yield declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential and implement special actions to boost consumption, focusing on both goods and service consumption growth [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The meeting will report on work to the Central Committee and discuss the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [1] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding consumption demand while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [1] Group 2: Investment and Risk Management - The meeting highlights the importance of high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [1] - Continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas is a priority, including managing local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts [1] - The need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market is stressed to consolidate the positive momentum of market stabilization [1]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's growth and the annual target[4] - The construction sector's GDP growth was only 0.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards new economic sectors like information technology[4] Policy Direction - The Politburo emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations[4] - A more proactive fiscal policy is required, with an acceleration in government bond issuance to enhance fund utilization efficiency[6] Fiscal Measures - In the first half of 2025, special bonds and long-term bonds totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.7 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, leaving approximately 1.3 trillion yuan unutilized[6] - The government plans to issue 3.8 trillion yuan in special bonds in the second half of the year to support fiscal spending[6] Consumption and Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting domestic consumption, particularly through service consumption, which has a significant multiplier effect on employment[5] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on both goods and services[5] Risk Management - The meeting called for proactive measures to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[12] - A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in debt for debt resolution has been issued this year, with 776.9 billion yuan in special new bonds issued to address corporate debt issues[13] Monetary Policy - The probability of significant monetary easing in Q3 is low, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs through structural monetary policy tools[17] - The average interest rate on new corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in Q1[22] Trade and Exports - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, despite challenges from external demand[26] - The government plans to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, emphasizing support for affected export enterprises[27] Real Estate Policy - The meeting did not mention measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards urban renewal and quality development rather than expansion[33]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢 基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策 工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏 观政策取向一致性。清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩表示，下半年 宏观政策将聚焦稳增长与调结构，根据经济运行情况适时加大政策力度。财政政策将持续加码，增加重 点领域支出，如城市更新、科技创新、产业升级等；货币政策方面，预计将继续保持适度宽松的货币环 境，可能会通过降低存款准备金率等方式，向市场注入更多流动性；将更多通过各项结构性货币政策工 具，与财政政策形成配合，支持科技创新和产业升级；同时，预计将加大力度提振消费，补贴政策将从 耐用消费品扩展至文旅、餐饮等服务消费领域，加大对居民消费的补贴力度，进一步激发市场活力。此 外，将进一步强化稳岗扩就业的各项措施，包括加大对高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体的就业帮扶力 度，开展职 ...

2025.07.30 本文字数：2933，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 祝嫣然 今年上半年中国经济顶住压力平稳运行，实现了5.3%的增速。下半年宏观政策如何发力，备受市场关 注。 据新华社消息，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议。分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议同时指出，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线 思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 李迅雷认为，短期内政策仍将保持定力，下半年或有两条主线：一个是精准施策。在不增列赤字、不增 发国债的前提下，发力空间在于调整年初预算安排的结构、优化额度在各省之间的分配、提前下达明年 专项债券和化债的额度，具体方向可能包括增加稳就业和稳外贸支出、化解中小企业账款拖欠、支持经 济大省"挑大梁"等。二是灵活应对，根据前期政策效果相机抉择是否进一步加大力度，并密切跟踪国际 政治、经济、金融形势对国内的影响传导，常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。 会议认为，今年以来，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质 生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范 ...