晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 229 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 12 月 15 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：郭怡萍 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观策略 1.1 宏观点评（仇华） 宏观数据方面，11 月出口当月同比增速由负转正 据 Wind 数据，近期公布的重要宏观数据有：进出口、PPI、CPI 以及 M1、M2 等。进出 口方面，11 月出口当月同比由 10 月的-1.10%，转正为 5.9%，推动前 11 月累计增速由 10 月 的 5.3%，反弹至 5.4%。而中国对美国的出口继续保持下滑态势，11 月对美出口月度同比增 速为-18.87%，跌幅继续扩大。 而由 PMI、PPI 与 CPI 剪刀差、10 年期国债收益率拟合而成的宏观短周期综合指数，11 月继续小幅回落，但并没有跌破震荡上行趋势。 在 M0、M1、M2 方面，11 月的 M0、M2 总体趋势稳定，但 M1 在 ...

Core Insights - Liu Yuanhai, the Chief Investment Officer of Dongwu Fund, has demonstrated impressive long-term performance in managing the Dongwu Mobile Internet Mixed Fund, with returns of 93.89%, 241.82%, and 335.16% over the past year, three years, and five years respectively, ranking 1 out of 1488 in its category [2] - Despite recent volatility in the technology sector, Liu remains optimistic about the technology market in 2026, viewing current market fluctuations as an opportunity for long-term investors [2][6] Investment Strategy - Liu's investment approach involves a dynamic strategy characterized by focusing on current market trends, monitoring underappreciated sectors, and preparing for future opportunities, ensuring the portfolio remains active and capable of upward movement [5] - The decision-making process within the Dongwu Fund emphasizes collective intelligence, with regular strategy meetings and discussions among team members to minimize individual biases and enhance investment accuracy [10][11] Market Analysis - Liu identifies the recent volatility in the technology sector as primarily driven by trading behaviors rather than fundamental issues, noting that high concentration in tech holdings among public funds does not necessarily indicate a market peak [6][7] - He conducted a thorough analysis of the "AI bubble" debate, concluding that current indicators do not suggest a typical bubble, as capital expenditure, revenue growth, and valuation levels remain healthy [7] Sector Focus - Liu continues to favor the computing power sector, particularly in light of increasing demand for AI applications, and anticipates a new market cycle driven by advancements in AI technology [8] - The smart automotive sector is also highlighted as a significant investment opportunity, with expectations for rapid growth in intelligent vehicle systems by 2026, despite short-term challenges [9] Team Dynamics - The Dongwu Fund's investment team, consisting of over 20 members, fosters a collaborative environment that encourages knowledge sharing and collective decision-making, contributing to the fund's strong performance [10][11] - The team has seen multiple high-performing equity products, with a significant number of funds ranking in the top 25% of their categories over the past year and two years, attributed to their effective research and investment strategies [11]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Yuanhai, the Chief Investment Officer of Dongwu Fund, remains optimistic about the technology sector in 2026 despite recent market volatility, viewing current fluctuations as a buying opportunity for long-term investors [1][6]. Investment Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Dongwu Mobile Internet Mixed A fund managed by Liu achieved returns of 93.89% over the past year, 241.82% over three years, and 335.16% over five years, ranking 1 out of 1488 in its category for the past five years [1]. Market Analysis - Liu emphasizes that the current adjustment in the technology sector is a normal phenomenon, driven by profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing as the year-end approaches [3][4]. - The concentration of holdings in the technology sector, particularly in the electronics industry, has reached a historical high of 25%, raising concerns among investors; however, Liu argues that this does not necessarily indicate a downturn, as certain segments are expected to maintain high growth [4]. AI Bubble Discussion - Liu systematically analyzes the "AI bubble" from five dimensions: capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP, input-output ratio, revenue growth, valuation levels, and financing structure. He concludes that the current indicators do not suggest a typical bubble, with most metrics indicating a healthy state [5]. Future Outlook - Liu forecasts that the first quarter of 2026 may see an early spring rally, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and edge AI, particularly in areas like AR glasses and AI smartphones [6][7]. - The intelligent automotive sector is also highlighted as a promising investment area, with expectations of rapid development in smart vehicle technology by 2026 [7]. Team Dynamics - Dongwu Fund's investment team, consisting of over 20 members, emphasizes a collaborative approach to research and decision-making, which enhances the accuracy of investment strategies [8][9]. - The team conducts regular strategy meetings and discussions to ensure a collective understanding of market trends, which helps mitigate individual biases in investment decisions [8].

Group 1: AI Products - The article discusses the intensive release of edge AI products, highlighting the growing trend in the technology sector [34]. Group 2: Military Industry Insights - Insights on the military industry are presented, focusing on recent developments and trends that may impact investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Configuration Model - A review and update of the industry configuration model is scheduled, indicating ongoing analysis and adjustments in response to market conditions [35]. Group 4: Exhibition Management Discussion - A discussion with the management of Miao Exhibition is planned, which may provide insights into the service industry and its current challenges [34]. Group 5: Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities - An exchange on investment opportunities in the chemical industry for 2026 is set, suggesting potential growth areas for investors [34]. Group 6: Retail Changes - A session discussing new changes in the retail sector is scheduled, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics [34].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic AI industry chain is gaining momentum, as evidenced by the performance of the Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), which saw a significant increase in trading volume and price appreciation, indicating strong buying interest [1][7]. Market Performance - The Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) rose by 2.12%, with a peak increase of 2.3%, and a total trading volume of 47.29 million yuan, reflecting a 92% increase compared to the previous period [1][7]. - Among the 30 constituent stocks of the ETF, 28 stocks experienced price increases, with over 60% rising by more than 2%. Notable performers included Hehe Information, which surged by 13.8%, and Chip Origin, which rose by 7.22% [4][9]. Industry Developments - The end-side AI sector is witnessing new advancements, such as ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant and Alibaba's Quark AI glasses, which integrate advanced AI capabilities for consumer applications [11]. - The State Council has issued guidelines aiming for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and smart entities by 2027, and over 90% by 2030, indicating strong governmental support for AI development [3][11]. Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the AI investment logic is evolving from focusing on hardware and infrastructure ("selling shovels") to emphasizing practical applications and commercialization ("mining for gold") [3][11]. - The ETF's index is balanced across four key segments: application software, terminal applications, terminal chips, and cloud chips, reflecting a shift in the AI industry from cloud-based solutions to edge computing and self-sufficiency [12][13]. Strategic Focus - The Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) and its associated funds are strategically positioned to capitalize on the domestic AI industry, with over 70% of the top ten holdings concentrated in the semiconductor sector, highlighting a strong focus on domestic alternatives [5][13].

Core Viewpoint - XiHua Technology, a Shenzhen-based AI chip and solution provider, has officially submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its R&D capabilities and expand its product offerings in the AI chip market [5]. Company Overview - Established in August 2018, XiHua Technology is a national-level key "little giant" enterprise specializing in smart display chips and smart sensing control chips, with over 100 million chips shipped [5]. - The company ranks second globally in the Scaler market with a shipment of 37 million units, holding an 18.8% market share [5][6]. Financial Performance - XiHua Technology has not yet achieved profitability, reporting cumulative losses of 426 million RMB over four years. Revenue for 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025 was 87 million, 150 million, 244 million, and 240 million RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.8% from 2022 to 2024 [9]. - The company's gross margin fluctuated significantly, with rates of 35.7%, 21.5%, 28.4%, and 22.1% from 2022 to the first nine months of 2025, attributed to its relatively small sales scale [11]. Product Lines and Market Position - XiHua Technology has developed two major product lines: smart display chips (including AI Scaler and STDI chips) and smart sensing control chips (including TMCU and general-purpose MCU) [16]. - The smart display segment has consistently contributed over 85% of the company's revenue from 2022 to the first nine months of 2025, while the smart sensing control segment's revenue share increased from 1.9% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2025 [16]. R&D and Innovation - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures of approximately 400 million RMB over the years, focusing on enhancing existing products and developing next-generation chips for AMOLED touch and audio driver applications [9][8]. - XiHua Technology has established a comprehensive technology solution based on MCU, perception, and display architecture, with a dedicated R&D team comprising over 50% of its workforce [25][28]. Customer and Supplier Dependency - XiHua Technology's revenue is highly concentrated, with the top five customers contributing 89.9%, 78.6%, 88.8%, and 82.2% of total revenue from 2022 to the first nine months of 2025, indicating a significant reliance on a few key clients [30]. - The company also relies heavily on a limited number of suppliers, with the top five suppliers accounting for 81.8%, 83.7%, 83.6%, and 76.6% of total procurement during the same period [34]. Ownership and Management - The company is controlled by its founder and chairman, Chen Xi, and his spouse, Wang Hong, who together hold 65.51% of the shares [37][39]. - Chen Xi has over 25 years of experience in the semiconductor and high-tech fields, with a strong educational background from Tsinghua University and UCLA [42].

Core Viewpoint - Honor's brand marketing president, Guo Rui, has recently left the company, indicating a potential shift towards entrepreneurship, as suggested by his social media posts [1] Group 1: Departure of Guo Rui - Guo Rui's departure from Honor is confirmed, and he expressed confidence in the company's future in his farewell message [1] - Insiders suggest that Guo Rui may pursue entrepreneurial ventures, aligning with his social media references to "next station technology" [1] Group 2: Guo Rui's Contributions - Guo Rui has a notable background, having served as CMO for Huawei's terminal division in Greater China from 2017 to 2021 before joining Honor's founding team [1] - During his tenure at Honor, he led the brand marketing department, overseeing brand and marketing strategies [1] - Guo Rui played a significant role in driving Honor's AI technology into a billion-level consumer market and helped the brand achieve a top-five position globally in several regions, particularly in the high-end smartphone segment priced above $600 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongke Lanyun (688332.SH) is advancing its collaboration with Volcano Engine and Doubao large model, focusing on AI applications in audio products and toys, leveraging its chip platforms BT895X, AB6003G, and BT8951H [1][4][7] Group 1: Product Development and Launches - The BT895X platform will be integrated with the Volcano Ark MaaS platform starting November 2024, providing a hardware-software solution compatible with Doubao large model, already implemented in the FIIL GS Links AI high-fidelity open-ear headphones [1][4] - Zhongke Lanyun will showcase an AI toy solution based on the AB6003G Wi-Fi chip at the 2025 Volcano Engine FORCE conference in June 2025; this chip combines Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and audio capabilities for IoT applications [3][6] - The company has launched the OC3 AI clip-on Bluetooth earphones, powered by the BT8951H chip, which supports AI Q&A features and enhances user interaction and experience [3][6] Group 2: Strategic Focus and Market Position - Zhongke Lanyun is concentrating on the AI edge sector, aiming to deepen partnerships with both domestic and international large model platforms to enhance user experience in AI products [4][7] - The company is recognized for its expertise in audio chips for Bluetooth headphones and speakers, with a product range that includes TWS headphones, Bluetooth speakers, and wearable devices [3][6] - Recent investments have been made in high-performance, low-power audio platforms and edge AI applications, leading to a comprehensive product matrix [3][6]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose on December 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.97. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of over 230 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][22]. AI Industry - The AI industry chain regained momentum, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) both rising over 2% during the session. The focus on domestic AI industry chains is evident as these ETFs saw significant trading activity [1][22]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) experienced a strong increase of 2.12%, with a trading volume of 47.29 million yuan, marking a 92% increase compared to the previous day. This ETF is heavily invested in the domestic AI industry chain, indicating strong buying interest [4][25]. Defense and Aerospace Sector - The high-profile defense and aerospace sector saw the National Defense and Military Industry ETF (512810) reach a new high, driven by themes such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and superconductivity. This ETF has shown a continuous upward trend over the past three weeks [15][19]. - The National Defense and Military Industry ETF (512810) has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 2.59% and a total trading volume of 4.09 billion yuan [19][16]. Hong Kong Market - In the Hong Kong market, technology stocks surged, with the first ETF focusing on the "Hong Kong chip" industry chain (159131) rising 2.07% and recovering its 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The trading volume for this ETF reached 82.28 million yuan [8][15]. Economic Outlook - The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2026, emphasizing the country's potential for long-term growth through technological innovation and improved resource allocation efficiency [3][23]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][24]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on technology growth, dividends, and cyclical resources, particularly in undervalued and policy-sensitive sectors. The emphasis on "domestic demand-driven" and "innovation-driven" strategies aligns with the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan [3][24]. - The AI sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with a shift in investment logic from hardware and infrastructure to practical applications and commercialization [6][27].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic AI sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the focus on the domestic AI industry chain through the Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), which saw a significant increase in trading volume and price [1][7]. Market Performance - The Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) rose by 2.12%, with a peak increase of 2.3%, and a total trading volume of 47.29 million yuan, marking a 92% increase compared to the previous period [1][7]. - Among the 30 constituent stocks of the ETF, 28 stocks closed higher, with over 60% of them rising by more than 2%. Notable performers included Hehe Information, which surged by 13.8%, and Chip Original Co., which increased by 7.22% [4][9]. Industry Developments - The edge AI sector is witnessing new advancements, such as ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant and Alibaba's Quark AI glasses, indicating a growing market for consumer-grade smart wearable devices [11]. - The State Council has issued opinions to promote AI applications, aiming for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and entities by 2027, and over 90% by 2030 [3][11]. Investment Trends - The investment logic in AI is shifting from hardware and infrastructure ("selling shovels") to actual applications and commercialization ("mining for gold"), highlighting the potential for explosive growth in AI applications [3][11]. - The ETF's index is balanced across four key segments: application software, terminal applications, terminal chips, and cloud chips, reflecting a shift from cloud-based to edge-based AI development [12]. Strategic Focus - The Science and Technology Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) emphasizes the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings concentrated in semiconductor-related sectors, indicating a strong focus on domestic alternatives [5][13].