Core Viewpoint - Gold prices in Asia experienced a slight decline due to potential position adjustments, with spot gold down 0.1% at $3,390.64 per ounce. However, the decline may be limited due to increased safe-haven demand stemming from concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and political risks in France [1]. Group 1 - Spot gold decreased by 0.1% to $3,390.64 per ounce [1]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, introducing uncertainty [1]. - Political risks in France are exacerbated by the Prime Minister's austerity plans and an upcoming confidence vote on September 8, increasing the risk of government collapse [1].

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月26日16时51分 投资咨询系列报告 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金强银弱，沪金主力收涨0.28%，沪银主力收涨0.11%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣布撤销美联储理事库克职 务，引发美联储独立性担忧，但库克拒绝辞职。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方面， 鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月新屋销售减少， 仍然高企的抵押贷款利率抑制楼市需求。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次 数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold has become a focal point for investment due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including expectations of looser monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and potential political risks [1] - In July, India's gold imports reached approximately 37.5 tons, valued at nearly $4 billion, significantly higher than the total import of 170 tons in the first half of the year, indicating strong physical demand driven by seasonal factors [2] - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggest that most officials are focused on inflation, with the possibility of rate cuts occurring later than market expectations, which may lead to a weaker dollar and increased stability for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Silver Market Challenges - Silver is facing multiple pressures, including weaker industrial demand expectations and a notable decline in speculative funds, with net long positions dropping by 16,352 contracts, a decrease of 27% since July [3] - Despite attempts to break the $39 per ounce resistance level, silver has struggled to maintain upward momentum, indicating that its short-term performance is constrained by outflows of funds and reduced demand [3] - The divergence between gold and silver trends highlights that while gold remains a strategic asset, silver's volatility risks are heightened due to its reliance on industrial demand and speculative investments [4]

Group 1 - The core event involves President Trump signing a document to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook, marking a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - This unprecedented action is viewed as a potential financial risk signal, possibly leading to legal disputes and uncertainty in central bank policy decisions and market expectations [1] - The immediate market reaction saw the US dollar index drop nearly 30 points, reflecting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and increasing expectations for future interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - Gold prices surged over $20 shortly after the news, demonstrating its role as a traditional safe-haven asset amid market uncertainty [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold shows a strong upward trend in the long term, while short-term charts suggest a consolidation phase, advising traders to be cautious [3] - Silver also displays positive technical indicators, with key resistance at $38.80-$39.00 and support around $37.50, suggesting potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [3][4] Group 3 - The event has caused immediate and noticeable impacts on financial markets, leading to structural differentiation where the dollar is under pressure while precious metals like gold and silver rise due to safe-haven demand [4] - Investors are advised to consider both the political risks and technical analysis when setting trading strategies, focusing on key support and resistance levels [4] - The market is currently processing the uncertainties brought by this rare event, emphasizing the need for caution and attention to technical signals and market sentiment changes [4]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储主席鲍威尔在 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上终于调整货币政策前瞻 指引，年内首次明确支持美联储重启降息进程，美元指数大跌至 97.8 附近而全球 股市和大宗商品受到提振，伦敦金银分别反弹至 3370 和 38.9 美元/盎司附近。特 朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得 到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡整固后再次上涨，建 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on August 25, starting with a decline to around 3359 before rebounding and fluctuating between 3371 and 3362 during the European session, ultimately closing with a small bearish candle [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, which may create competitive pressure on gold [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium indicated rising risks in the U.S. labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to an increase in the probability of a September rate cut to 84% from 61.9% a month ago, which initially supported gold prices [2] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with expectations for the core inflation rate to rise to 2.9% by the end of 2023; results above expectations could challenge the urgency for rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [2][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to further influence the Fed's policy direction, with signs of weakening in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by a decline in new single-family home sales [2] - A combination of rising PCE inflation and weak non-farm employment data could lead the Fed to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, which may create mixed signals for gold [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase since peaking at 3500 in April, with a triangular convergence pattern indicating a balance of forces in the market [5] - The current support and resistance levels for gold are identified at 3320 (support) and 3416-3426 (resistance), with a focus on maintaining positions within this range until a clear breakout occurs [5][6] Group 5: Key Levels and Trading Strategy - The short-term moving averages are showing upward momentum, suggesting a potential for bullish movement if prices remain above the support zone of 3357-3347 [6] - The four-hour analysis indicates that the key levels to watch are 3409 (resistance) and 3311 (support), with a breakout above 3409 signaling further upward movement [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its pricing dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors and investor behavior [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Real Interest Rates**: High real interest rates typically negatively affect gold prices. However, post-2008 quantitative easing and rising government debt have raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets, diminishing the suppressive effect of interest rates on gold [2][3]. 2. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified global concerns regarding the safety of dollar assets, thereby increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, which has led to a rise in gold prices despite high bond yields [3][4]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - **Industrial Demand**: Remains stable but is limited due to high costs, thus not a core driver of gold prices [4]. - **Jewelry Demand**: Primarily from Asian countries like India and China, has seen a decline of approximately 10% due to rising gold prices [6]. - **Investment Demand**: Central bank purchases are crucial, with significant buying from countries like China, which holds about 2,300 tons of gold [6][10]. 4. **Cryptocurrency Influence**: Virtual currencies, particularly Bitcoin, have a diversion effect on gold investments. The expansion of Bitcoin ETFs often coincides with a decline in gold ETFs, indicating a shift in some investor preferences [5][10]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve may have a positive but limited impact on gold prices. Despite increased expectations for rate cuts, gold prices have not significantly surged [6][8]. 6. **Trading Structure**: The trading dynamics, particularly the influence of Asian investors, have been pivotal in recent price movements. For instance, significant purchases by domestic investors have been noted, but speculative funds have not fully exited the market, creating short-term resistance for gold prices [9][10]. Other Important Considerations 1. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term trend of dollar overproduction and credit decline is favorable for gold. Historical cycles indicate that gold prices have the potential to rise significantly compared to current levels [10]. 2. **Investment Timing**: Current conditions may require investors to bear high holding costs for gold. Monitoring the rapid decline in ETF shares could signal a better buying opportunity in the future [11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the gold market, its pricing mechanisms, and the broader economic context influencing investor behavior.

在港股市场，珠峰黄金（01815.HK）大涨11.31%，紫金矿业（02899.HK）涨6.38%，灵宝黄金（03330.HK）涨5.21%，中国黄金国际（02099.HK）涨 4.95%，潼关黄金（00340.HK）涨4.32%，山东黄金（01787.HK）涨3.75%，赤峰黄金（06693.HK）、招金矿业（01818.HK）等多只概念股均涨。 | 代码 | 序号 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01815 | 1 | 珠峰黄金 | 0) | 1.870 | +0.190 | 11.31 | | 02899 | 2 | 常毛矿业 | | 24.340 | +1.460 | 6.38 | | 03330 | 3 | 灵宝黄金 | | 11.520 | +0.570 | 5.21 | | 02099 | ব | 中国黄金国际 | | 89.050 - | - +4.200 | 4.95 | | 00812 | ട | 中国白银集团 | | 0.440 | +0.020 | 4.76 | | 003 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts have significantly influenced gold prices, reaching a peak of $3,378 per ounce before slightly declining to $3,364 per ounce [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 12 basis points to 3.85%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.7%, creating a favorable environment for gold as a zero-yield asset [3] - Despite the historical high in gold prices, real interest rates remain positive, suggesting that the current rise in gold prices is driven more by investor risk aversion rather than a reassessment of gold's intrinsic value [3] Group 2 - The market consensus indicates an expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but there is a 30 basis point divergence regarding the timing and magnitude of a second cut [3] - The widening spread between gold and silver prices has drawn market attention, with silver's industrial properties potentially offering greater upside during a rate cut period [3] - UBS Wealth Management's latest report emphasizes that long-term support factors for gold remain strong, including central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years and unresolved geopolitical risk premiums [4] Group 3 - The current investment strategies are shifting, as hedge funds have reduced their net long positions in gold to a six-week low, while silver management funds have increased their holdings [3] - The perception of gold as a stable safe-haven asset may lead to unforeseen risks, prompting the need for more complex hedging strategies, such as using gold options for spread combinations or silver futures for volatility arbitrage [4]

经济数据好坏参半，黄金走势扑朔迷离 周五(8月22日)亚市早盘，现货黄金基本持稳，现报3337美元/盎司附近。周四(8月21日)，现货黄金价格 小幅下跌0.3%，收于每盎司3338.45美元，而12月交割的美国期金也下滑0.2%，结算价报3386.50美元。 这一跌势的背后，是美元指数强势上涨0.45%，创下两周新高，使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家变得 更加昂贵。 周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计今年仅降息一次，但承认经济不确定性大，政策需单向 推进以维持公信力。他指出当前利率"略微限制性"，经济增长相对温和，但明年可能反弹。 美联储主席鲍威尔预定周五在杰克逊霍尔举办的全球央行年会上，发表经济展望和美联储政策立场，预 计鲍威尔演讲将引发市场重大行情。 Marex分析师Edward Meir说："如果鲍威尔暗示9月降息，我不认为会发生太多变化，因为市场早就已经 预期这件事将发生。" Meir补充说："但如果鲍威尔说我们10月、11月或12月会再次降息，我想美元就有可能转弱，黄金就有 机会上涨。" Kitco Metals资深分析师Jim Wyckoff说："我认为，鲍威尔可能会略偏鸽派一点点，这将对黄 ...