摘要10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前 最高921.40元/克，最低898.06元/克。 10月10日，沪金主力暂报901.22元/克，跌幅达1.29%，今日沪金主力开盘价918.06元/克，截至目前最高 921.40元/克，最低898.06元/克。 【宏观消息】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。特朗普的大而美法案顺利 通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金的去法币化属性 凸显。 在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱，对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。 地缘政治风险持续，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。 中国实物金需求明显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持十个月。 【机构观点】 目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和避险情绪可能是短期扰动因 素，美联储需兼顾就业和通胀双重指标，更加注重稳就业，今年9月 ...

现货金价年初至今累计上涨约51%。 机构预测 高盛预测明年年底金价可能攀升至每盎司4900美元。 近期国际金价持续走高，纽约期金价格已历史性地突破每盎司4000美元大关。这对关注黄金交易的你来 说，无疑是一个重要的市场信号。 下面这个表格汇总了当前黄金市场的主要动态，可以帮你快速了解核心情况： 市场动态 具体表现 价格突破 纽约期金价格突破4000美元/盎司（收盘报4004.4美元）。 年内涨幅 利率下降会降低持有黄金这种非生息资产的机会成本，从而提升其吸引力。 · 避险情绪升温：全球政治经济环境的不确定性，例如美国政府的政策僵局，催生了避险需求。黄金作 为传统的避风港资产，自然受到资金追捧。 · 官方力量支撑：包括中国在内的多国央行已连续多月增持黄金储备，这为金价提供了坚实的基本面支 撑。 · 投资大佬站台：像达里奥（Ray Dalio）这样的顶级投资人也公开看好黄金，认为其相较于美元能提供 更安全的保障，这进一步影响了市场情绪。 核心驱动 美联储降息预期、政治经济环境不确定性、央行购金及黄金ETF资金流入。 当前市场的主要推动力 金价能站上4000美元的高位，是多种因素合力的结果： · 宏观政策预期：市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly. The core logic is the start of interest rate cuts, intensified geopolitical situations, and the continuation of the upward trend in the medium and long term [1][3] - Copper is also expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday increases. The reason is the macro - loose background, renewed disturbances at the mine end, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell. New York gold and London gold both fell below the $4000 mark, and Shanghai gold dropped to the 900 - yuan mark. During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce psychological barrier, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which cooled geopolitical tensions, and the strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions after a large previous increase. The strong performance of gold prices is driven by three factors: a surge in hedging demand, expectations of monetary policy, and a structural influx of funds [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game of overseas gold prices at $4000, corresponding to the 900 - yuan mark in China [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, copper prices rose and then fell. During the National Day, the LME copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is affected by the fall of precious metals and strong technical pressure at a nearly 5 - year high. The strong rise is caused by three factors: supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the pressure at the $11000 mark for overseas LME copper and the high in May 2024 for domestic copper [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has raised concerns about potential risks, with analysts warning of a possible correction in the near future while maintaining a bullish long-term outlook for gold [1][2][4]. Price Movements - On October 9, 2023, spot gold and silver prices hit record highs before declining, with spot gold falling below $4000 per ounce, closing at $3990.24 per ounce [2][4]. - COMEX gold futures dropped 1.95% to $3991.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.655 per ounce [2]. Market Analysis - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, prompting some speculators to take profits [2][4]. - Analysts from Bank of America caution that gold has priced in most of the expected gains and may be slightly overbought, predicting a potential price correction [2][3]. Historical Context - Gold has risen nearly 50% this year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, with other precious metals like silver and platinum also showing strong gains [4]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant bull markets in gold are often followed by substantial sell-offs, with past cycles showing varying degrees of price corrections [4]. Future Projections - Bank of America’s technical analyst Paul Ciana suggests that gold prices could stabilize or correct to $3525 per ounce by Q4 2025, with initial support at $3790 per ounce [5][6]. - Analysts predict a potential short-term correction of 5%-6% before a resumption of upward momentum, viewing this as a buying opportunity for investors [6][7]. Long-term Bullish Factors - Key factors supporting a long-term bull market for gold include: 1. Loose monetary policy, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical risks and economic concerns bolstering gold's status as a safe-haven asset [10]. 3. Strong demand from central banks and ETFs, indicating robust investment interest [10]. Aggressive Predictions - Some analysts, like Renisha Chainani, predict that gold could reach new highs above $4200 per ounce by 2026, driven by U.S. rate cuts and strong investment demand [10]. - In extreme scenarios, forecasts suggest gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce if significant capital shifts from U.S. Treasuries to gold [10].

编者荐语： 展望后市，A股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在5日线之上，预计节后仍将持续趋势，需要注意3750-3900之间的区间仍是震荡为主，节后 要重点关注方向选择。板块方面，预计有色金属，固态电池，黄金等潜力较大。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 2025 年国庆假期期间，截止发稿的 1 0 月 7 日收盘，全球主要股指整体呈现上涨趋势：恒生指数涨幅 0 .38% ，恒生科技 1 .30% ，美 股三大指数微涨，韩国股市涨幅 3 . 6 4% ，日本股市表现最强上涨 6 .7% ，亚太市场显示出较强的复苏态势。大宗商品方面 COMEX 黄 金价格站上 4 000 ，涨幅超 3 .45% ，贵金属普涨，反映了避险需求或通胀预期的变化，有色金属同样较强，显示出全球工业需求的回暖 迹象。从期间涨幅来看，预计节后 A 股以平稳向好为主，且黄金、有色金属等板块可能延续强势。 展望后市， A 股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在 5 日线之上，预 ...

宝城期货分析指出，短期以色列与哈马斯达成停火协议，导致地缘政治紧张情绪迅速降温，叠加前期已 录得较大涨幅，短期多头了结意愿较强。今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金突破 4000美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超4%，年内涨幅超50%。此番金价强势表现主要源于三大驱动 因素的共振：1.避险需求激增：政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2.货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用受 损；3.构性涌入：央行与ETF买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延续。技术上，持续关注海外金价4000美元多 空博弈，对应国内900元关口。 10月9日，受地缘冲突缓和影响，金价冲高回落，纽约金和伦敦金均跌破4000美元关口，截至收盘， COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨4.53%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨8.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has reversed, with gold prices dropping below $4000 per ounce, indicating a potential market correction after reaching historical highs [1][2]. Price Movements - On October 9, spot gold prices fell to $3990.24 per ounce after briefly surpassing $4000, while COMEX gold futures closed down 1.95% at $3991.1 per ounce [2][3]. - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index experienced a significant decline of 4.19% [1]. Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a strengthening U.S. dollar and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, prompting some speculators to take profits [2]. - The recent price movements are linked to concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and rising political risks in countries like France and Japan, which have heightened market risk aversion [2]. Investment Outlook - Bank of America has cautioned that precious metals have realized much of their upward potential, suggesting that gold may experience a correction to $3525 per ounce by Q4 2025 [1][4]. - Multiple analysts indicate that gold is currently in an overbought state, predicting a possible 5%-6% pullback, which could present a buying opportunity for investors [6][7]. Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that significant bull markets in gold often precede substantial sell-offs. For instance, from 2015 to 2020, gold prices rose 85% before a 15% correction in 2022 [3][4]. - The current bull market has seen gold prices increase nearly 50% this year, marking the best annual performance since 1979 [3]. Future Projections - If the current bull market mirrors past performance, gold prices could potentially exceed $5000 per ounce, with some forecasts suggesting a rise to $7000 per ounce if conditions align similarly to previous bull markets [4][8]. - Analysts expect that the long-term fundamentals supporting gold, such as loose monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and strong demand from central banks and ETFs, remain intact [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has raised concerns about potential risks, with analysts warning of a possible correction in the near future while maintaining a bullish long-term outlook for gold [2][3][4]. Price Movements - On October 9, spot gold and silver prices reached historical highs before declining, with spot gold falling below $4000 per ounce, closing at $3990.24 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold futures dropped 1.95% to $3991.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.655 per ounce [3]. Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent price drop to a strengthening U.S. dollar and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, leading some speculators to take profits [3]. - The surge in gold prices was linked to concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and rising political risks in countries like France and Japan, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][6]. Future Projections - Paul Ciana from Bank of America suggests that gold prices may stabilize or correct by Q4 2025, potentially dropping to $3525 per ounce [4][5]. - Ciana also notes that gold has risen nearly 50% this year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, but warns that significant sell-offs often precede major bull markets [4][5]. Support Factors for Long-term Bull Market - Analysts believe that the macroeconomic fundamentals supporting gold remain intact, including: 1. Loose monetary policy, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [6][7]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical risks and economic concerns that reinforce gold's status as a preferred hedge against risk [6][7]. 3. Strong demand from central banks and ETFs, indicating robust long-term support for gold prices [7]. Aggressive Predictions - Some analysts predict that after a short-term consolidation, gold prices could exceed $4200 per ounce by 2026, driven by U.S. rate cuts and strong investment demand [7]. - In extreme scenarios, JPMorgan forecasts that gold could surpass $5000 per ounce if funds shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum driven by geopolitical and economic risks, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 914.32 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 4.82% with a trading volume of 196,141 contracts and an open interest of 251,137 contracts [1]. - The spot gold price in Shanghai was quoted at 910.89 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 3.43 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - COMEX gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by rising geopolitical and economic risks [1]. - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% chance of another cut in December [2]. - Central banks globally have been major buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025 [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Futures, while the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, there is increasing pressure from profit-taking, and a potential correction may occur once the U.S. government shutdown ends [3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is currently facing significant challenges, and the pace of central bank purchases may slow down, which together account for approximately 70% of global gold demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a potential short-term correction despite a strong long-term bullish outlook for gold due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [3][4][5][10]. Price Movements - On October 9, 2023, spot gold and silver prices reached historical highs before declining, with spot gold dropping below $4000 per ounce, closing at $3990.24 per ounce [4][5]. - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.95% to $3991.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 2.73% to $47.655 per ounce [4][5]. Market Analysis - Analysts warn that gold is currently in an overbought state, with potential short-term corrections of 5%-6% expected [5][8]. - The recent price surge is attributed to concerns over a U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks in countries like France and Japan, which have heightened market anxiety [4][5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, the macroeconomic fundamentals supporting gold remain strong, with expectations of continued demand from central banks and ETFs [9][10]. - Key factors supporting the long-term bull market for gold include: 1. Monetary policy easing, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical risks that reinforce gold's status as a safe-haven asset [12]. 3. Strong official and investment demand, particularly from central banks [12]. Future Predictions - Analysts predict that if the current bull market can replicate past performance, gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce by 2026, with some forecasts suggesting prices could approach $7000 per ounce under extreme scenarios [6][12].