格隆汇2月24日｜美国总统特朗普的关税政策前景不确定性，令金融市场避险情绪升温，美股周一大幅 滑落，美元汇价受压，国际金价显著攀升，现货金价在纽约交易时段触及日内高位，一度高见每盎斯 5218.71美元，攀升2.24%。现货银价最多曾涨4%，每盎斯报88.0315美元。美元指数日内一度下挫 0.45%，低见97.36，纽约时段一度轻微倒升至97.85，最新仍跌0.2%，报97.6。 在美国最高法院推翻所谓"对等关税"后，特朗普在刚过去的周末宣布，将全球关税税率从上周五公布的 10%，立即上调至15%，他周一发出警告称，玩花招的国家将面临更高的关税，尤其是那些多年来甚至 几十年来"敲诈"美国的国家，都将面临比他们最近同意的更高关税，而且情况会更糟，他这番言论令外 界忧虑，关税前景不明朗恐将令全球贸易重新陷入混乱。 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices fell significantly due to rising inventories and a stronger dollar, raising concerns about demand in the overall commodity market [1] - The most active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 100,980 yuan per ton, down 3.76%, while the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped by $51 or 0.39%, settling at $12,989 per ton [1] - LME copper inventories increased by 12,750 tons, reaching a total of 155,725 tons, the highest level since March 2025, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories rose to 133,004 tons, the highest since April 2025 [1] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with Shanghai aluminum down 525 yuan or 2.2% to 23,385 yuan per ton, and Shanghai zinc falling 440 yuan or 1.77% to 24,395 yuan per ton [2] - The three-month aluminum price on the LME decreased by 1.48%, while three-month zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices also saw declines of 0.91%, 0.33%, 1.12%, and 4.71% respectively [2]

2月2日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周一下挫，因投资者凯文·沃什被提名为美联储下任主 席令投资者转入避险模式，同时在中国农历新年假期临近之际需求趋弱。 现货金跌至每盎司4,500美元水平，此前周四曾创下接近5,600美元的历史新高。 美元指数企稳，巩固沃什被提名后录得的涨幅。美元走强通常打压以美元计价的大宗商品，使其对其他 货币持有者的吸引力下降。 与此同时，在工业金属整体承压之际，铜价亦受到春节前需求前景转弱拖累。 LME基本金属全线下跌，三个月期铝下跌3.40%至每吨3,037美元。三个月期锌下跌3.37%，至每吨 3,287.50美元。三个月期铅下跌1.77%，至每吨1,973.50美元。三个月期镍下跌5.01%，至每吨17,055美 元。 沪锌主力合约下跌6.86%至每吨24,515元。沪铅主力合约下跌2.31%，报每吨16,680元。 截至北京时间15:59，LME三个月期铜下跌3.40%，报每吨12,710.50美元，自历史高点14,527.50美元回 落。 上海期货交易所主力3月期铜合约触及跌停板，下跌9%，报每吨98,580元。 沪铝、沪镍以及沪锡亦跌停。沪铝下跌9%至每吨23,03 ...

同时，国际金价持续走强，现货金最高升超2%至每盎司5311.44美元，暂报5270美元。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 荷兰半导体巨头ASML业绩表现亮眼，其第四季订单额达132亿欧元，远高于市场预期，且上调2026年 全年净销售额至340亿至390亿欧元。 受此带动，芯片股集体走高，SanDisk升10%，英特尔升8%，美光升5%，英伟达亦升2%。 来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：1月28日 ，美股周三开盘集体走高，道指涨109点报49113点，标指涨28点或0.4%报7000点， 创下历史新高，纳指涨149点或0.6%报23966点。 市场当前聚焦于本港时间周四凌晨美联储将公布的议息结果，此外微软、Meta、Tesla将在当日收市后 公布业绩。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with expectations of a rebound in earnings growth from a low base in 2025, leading to an upgrade in valuation attractiveness [1] Group 1: Chinese Stock Market - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position on Chinese stocks, predicting the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 30,000 points over the next 12 months [1] - If investment sentiment deteriorates or if there is insufficient policy support, the index could drop to a range of 26,000 to 28,000 points [1] - Concerns about asset valuation and potential bubbles in artificial intelligence capital expenditure may increase next year, with volatility being more significant than the bubble debate [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times next year, with a potential total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for risk assets, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company suggests a diversified investment strategy, recommending an overweight position in gold and global equities while reducing exposure to European (excluding the UK) and Japanese stocks [1] - India is recommended for an overweight position due to its favorable outlook [1] Group 4: Emerging Bonds and Gold - The company is overweight on emerging market bonds, expecting them to outperform developed markets as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may fall to between 3.75% and 4% over the next 12 months [2] - Gold is anticipated to challenge new highs, with spot gold potentially reaching $4,800 next year as central banks and investors seek alternatives to the dollar [2]

Core Insights - The global asset bull market narrative since 2025 has reached a critical juncture in October [1] - Despite significant year-to-date gains in silver (64.73%) and gold (52.53%), October revealed market fragility with declines in major indices [2] - The divergence in performance between US and Asian markets highlights a stark contrast, with US indices reaching new highs while Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, faced significant pullbacks [3][4] Market Performance - US stock markets showed strong performance in October, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.70% to close at 23,724.96 points, and the S&P 500 index increasing by 2.27% to 6,840.20 points [3][6] - In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.53% to 25,906.65 points, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped by 4.19% [3][6] - The A-share market also exhibited mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10% [3][6] Precious Metals - The precious metals market experienced volatility, with silver peaking at $54.142 per ounce before retreating to $48.85, while gold reached $4,355.685 before falling to $4,018.52 [7][8] - Year-to-date performance for gold and silver remains strong, with gold up 52.53% and silver up 68.44% [8] Energy and Currency - The US dollar index strengthened in October, rising from 97.82 to 99.73, which exerted pressure on dollar-denominated assets [9] - Oil prices faced downward pressure, with WTI crude oil falling 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.91% to $64.77 per barrel [9] Market Dynamics - The October pullback in Chinese stocks is attributed to multiple pressures, including increased IPO activity and ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to reduced risk appetite [10] - The divergence in performance is also linked to the relative strength of the US economy and the liquidity environment, which continues to support US equities [11] Future Outlook - The medium-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - The performance of US stocks is heavily reliant on large technology companies, which have shown strong earnings growth and market dominance [12] - Concerns about potential valuation bubbles in the tech sector are emerging, particularly regarding AI investments, which could impact future market stability [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have continued to rise, reaching a record high of $4,073.89 per ounce [1] Group 1 - The increase in spot gold prices indicates strong demand and potential shifts in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum driven by geopolitical and economic risks, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 914.32 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 4.82% with a trading volume of 196,141 contracts and an open interest of 251,137 contracts [1]. - The spot gold price in Shanghai was quoted at 910.89 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 3.43 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - COMEX gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by rising geopolitical and economic risks [1]. - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% chance of another cut in December [2]. - Central banks globally have been major buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025 [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Futures, while the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, there is increasing pressure from profit-taking, and a potential correction may occur once the U.S. government shutdown ends [3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is currently facing significant challenges, and the pace of central bank purchases may slow down, which together account for approximately 70% of global gold demand [3].

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower on Thursday, with investors adjusting positions amid a lack of new economic data and market catalysts [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its largest single-day drop in a month, falling by 243.36 points to 46358.42 points, a decline of 0.52% [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 18.61 points to 6735.11 points, down 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 18.75 points to 23024.63 points, a drop of 0.08% [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the materials sector had the largest decline, while the consumer staples sector was the only one to rise [2] - The housing and residential construction sectors both dropped over 2% due to pressure on profit margins and demand outlook [2] - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple down 1.56%, Google A down 1.26%, and Microsoft and Tesla down by up to 0.7%, while Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta saw gains between 1.12% and 2.18% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks faced overall pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 2.01% [2] - Xpeng Motors and Pony.ai dropped over 5%, while NIO, Baidu, Li Auto, and Alibaba saw declines exceeding 4% [2] - JinkoSolar rose by 2.3%, and Bilibili increased by 2.9% [2] Earnings Season - The earnings season is approaching, with major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report their results [4] - Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a year-over-year earnings growth of 8.8% for Q3, down from 13.8% in the previous quarter [4] - Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and raised its guidance for the current quarter, leading to a 4.3% increase in its stock price [4] Economic Indicators - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.7 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 3.60% [5] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 1.66% to $61.51 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.55% to $65.22 per barrel [5] - Gold prices retreated from recent highs, with spot gold down 1.62% to $3976.76 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 1.96% to $3990.9 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a slight increase in Asian trading, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are likely to enhance the appeal of this non-yielding precious metal [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 0.1%, reaching $3,645.84 per ounce [1] - The increase in gold prices is supported by last week's weak employment data and the benchmark revision data released on Tuesday, indicating that U.S. job growth is significantly slower than previously estimated [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A series of disappointing labor market indicators have strengthened market bets on multiple interest rate cuts before the end of the year [1] - This shift in expectations has increased the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [1]