现货黄金再创历史新高，日内涨幅扩大至1%，COMEX期金涨约0.6%。黄金基金ETF（518800）涨超 1%。 消息面，市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续升温，以及随着圣诞假期和新年假期的临近，地缘不确定 性增加，为金价提供支撑。 从中长期看，美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球"去美元化"趋势对金价依然构成 利好，长期逻辑未变。 黄金基金ETF（518800）紧密跟踪黄金价格走势，一手黄金基金ETF对应1克黄金，相当于实物黄金的 持有凭证，T+0交易，场内流动性较好，感兴趣的投资者可以关注相关布局机会。 风险提示：金价短期涨幅过快，请关注可能存在的回调风险，投资需谨慎。黄金基金ETF主要投资对象 为黄金现货合约，预期风险收益水平与黄金资产相似，不同于股票基金、混合基金、债券基金和货币市 场基金。如需购买相关基金产品，请关注投资者适当性管理相关规定，提前做好风险测评，根据自身的 风险承受能力购买与之匹配的基金产品。市场观点仅供参考，不代表投资建议。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 ...

格隆汇12月21日｜RHB Investment Bank Bhd周五在一份报告中称，投资者在美国关键经济数据之前布 局仓位之际，下周COMEX期金可能再度尝试突破每盎司4400美元的阻力位。如果出现突破，金价可能 会延续其看涨轨迹，走向下一个阻力位4500美元。如果抛售压力加大，价格可能会回落至20日简单移动 平均线。目前，我们维持积极的交易倾向。 ...

*道指与标普500再创新高 截至收盘，道指收涨646.26点，涨幅1.34%，报48704.01点，全日及盘中均刷新纪录。尽管英伟达走 弱，但维萨在银行上调评级后强劲上行，推动道指续写历史新高。标普500指数涨0.21%，收于6901.00 点，连续第二天刷新收盘纪录。纳斯达克综合指数跌0.26%，至23593.86点，科技板块跌幅居前。 降息驱动下，小盘股表现尤为亮眼，罗素2000指数收涨1.21%，报2590.61点，盘中亦创历史新高。小型 上市公司融资需求更依赖银行体系，对利率敏感度更高，降息往往能直接改善盈利预期。 【热门股表现】 甲骨文暴跌10.83%，科技股情绪受明显冲击。公司财报披露云业务收入不及预期，同时宣布未来将额 外投入150亿美元扩建数据中心，引发市场对"AI资本开支过热"的再度担忧。 大型科技股普遍回落，英伟达跌1.55%，特斯拉跌1.0%，博通跌1.60%，谷歌-A跌2.43%，苹果跌 0.27%，亚马逊跌0.65%，微软涨1.08%，Meta涨0.40%。 热门中概股方面，拼多多跌2.87%，阿里巴巴跌1.21%，百度涨1.78%，京东跌0.24%，蔚来涨1.99%，小 鹏汽车跌2 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures have continued to rebound with an increase of over 1%, currently priced at 4152.5 USD/ounce [1] - Spot gold has risen to over 4140 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.35% [1]

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to $58.7 per barrel, the lowest price since May, while Brent crude is around $62 [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in global oil supply compared to demand next year, marking an unprecedented overproduction [3] - Trade tensions have led to decreased demand expectations for oil, causing further price declines [3] - Major oil executives from companies like Trafigura and Gunvor predict that oil prices are likely to continue falling, with gasoline and diesel demand potentially peaking [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Base metals are experiencing a collective decline, with LME copper down 2.24%, aluminum and nickel also falling, and zinc hitting a nearly eight-month low with a 2.63% drop [3] - The decline in metal prices is attributed to weak industrial demand and uncertainty in trade relations, leading to reduced factory orders for raw materials [3] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold has risen by 0.73% to $4,138.7 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts [4] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted investors to convert cash into gold for protection, while lower interest rates make non-yielding gold more attractive [4] - Long-term forecasts suggest that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce, supported by continued buying from ETFs and central banks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating tariff conflicts are increasing risk aversion and inflation expectations, providing support for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Key Information - China announced countermeasures against the U.S. 301 investigation into its shipbuilding industry, starting on October 14, imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [1]. - On October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a comprehensive upgrade of rare earth export controls, adding five types of medium and heavy rare earth elements and implementing "long-arm jurisdiction" over technology, equipment, and overseas products [1]. - On October 10, Trump declared on social media that starting November 1, an additional 100% tariff would be imposed on all products from China, on top of existing tariffs [1]. - Major asset classes saw declines on Friday due to heightened trade risks and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with U.S. and European stock markets falling collectively, U.S. oil main contracts dropping over 5%, and LME copper down approximately 4.5%. The U.S. dollar index fell by over 0.5%, while U.S. Treasury bonds and gold prices rose, with COMEX gold increasing by about 1.6%, marking an eight-week consecutive rise [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum driven by geopolitical and economic risks, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 914.32 yuan per gram, marking a daily increase of 4.82% with a trading volume of 196,141 contracts and an open interest of 251,137 contracts [1]. - The spot gold price in Shanghai was quoted at 910.89 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 3.43 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - COMEX gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by rising geopolitical and economic risks [1]. - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% chance of another cut in December [2]. - Central banks globally have been major buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by September 2025 [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Futures, while the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, there is increasing pressure from profit-taking, and a potential correction may occur once the U.S. government shutdown ends [3]. - The demand for gold jewelry is currently facing significant challenges, and the pace of central bank purchases may slow down, which together account for approximately 70% of global gold demand [3].

Market Overview - The US stock market closed lower on Thursday, with investors adjusting positions amid a lack of new economic data and market catalysts [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its largest single-day drop in a month, falling by 243.36 points to 46358.42 points, a decline of 0.52% [2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 18.61 points to 6735.11 points, down 0.28%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 18.75 points to 23024.63 points, a drop of 0.08% [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the materials sector had the largest decline, while the consumer staples sector was the only one to rise [2] - The housing and residential construction sectors both dropped over 2% due to pressure on profit margins and demand outlook [2] - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple down 1.56%, Google A down 1.26%, and Microsoft and Tesla down by up to 0.7%, while Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta saw gains between 1.12% and 2.18% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks faced overall pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 2.01% [2] - Xpeng Motors and Pony.ai dropped over 5%, while NIO, Baidu, Li Auto, and Alibaba saw declines exceeding 4% [2] - JinkoSolar rose by 2.3%, and Bilibili increased by 2.9% [2] Earnings Season - The earnings season is approaching, with major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report their results [4] - Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a year-over-year earnings growth of 8.8% for Q3, down from 13.8% in the previous quarter [4] - Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and raised its guidance for the current quarter, leading to a 4.3% increase in its stock price [4] Economic Indicators - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1.7 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 3.60% [5] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 1.66% to $61.51 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.55% to $65.22 per barrel [5] - Gold prices retreated from recent highs, with spot gold down 1.62% to $3976.76 per ounce and COMEX gold futures down 1.96% to $3990.9 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to recent developments, including the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy by the U.S. and upcoming geopolitical meetings, particularly between U.S. and Russian leaders, which may impact market sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic and international gold prices have both declined recently, following a spike caused by concerns over high tariffs on gold imports [1]. - The COMEX gold price reached a high of $3534.1 per ounce due to fears of tariffs, but this was followed by a significant drop after the U.S. government clarified that gold bars would not be subject to tariffs [1][2]. - The price difference between COMEX gold and London gold surged over $100 per ounce before retreating to $50 per ounce after the clarification [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - Following a disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll report, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased, with pricing reflecting potential cuts in September and two cuts within the year [2]. - Inflationary pressures are rising, particularly due to the new tariff policy, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [2]. - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with an increase in "dovish" members, which may further strengthen market expectations for rate cuts [2][4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders on August 15 may lead to significant political developments regarding the Ukraine situation, which could influence gold prices [3]. - Market participants are already pricing in expectations of a ceasefire, leading to a decline in gold prices, although substantial agreements are considered unlikely [3][4]. - The Jackson Hole global central bank summit later in August is anticipated to impact long-term interest rates and monetary policy, with a focus on remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term gold prices may remain weak, there is potential for a long-term upward trend if the Federal Reserve confirms rate cuts in September [5]. - The interplay of weakening fundamentals, U.S. fiscal expansion, and rate cut expectations will be key factors for market participants to monitor [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors, including U.S. monetary policy, inflation concerns, and geopolitical events, particularly the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting regarding Ukraine [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic and international gold prices have both declined recently, following a spike due to concerns over high tariffs on gold imports [1]. - The COMEX gold price reached a high of $3534.1 per ounce before retreating after the U.S. government clarified that gold bars would not be subject to tariffs [1]. - The price difference between COMEX and London gold surged over $100 per ounce due to tariff concerns but later fell back to $50 per ounce [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - Inflationary pressures are rising, particularly after the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates [2]. - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with a shift towards a more dovish stance anticipated in upcoming meetings [2][4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting on August 15 may influence market sentiment, particularly regarding the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine [3]. - Market participants are already pricing in expectations of a ceasefire, which has contributed to the recent decline in gold prices [3]. - The Jackson Hole global central bank summit later this month could also impact monetary policy and gold prices, with a focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to experience short-term weakness but maintain a bullish outlook in the medium to long term, especially if the Fed confirms rate cuts [4][5]. - The anticipated normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices, with a key support level identified at $3360 per ounce for COMEX gold [4].