Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic factors are causing fluctuations in precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing mixed movements. The market sentiment remains cautious due to various uncertainties, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ongoing trade tensions [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have recently declined, with the current price at 85,920 CNY/ton. The market is experiencing weak demand, and while there is a high inventory level, the long-term demand for copper is expected to grow due to the global energy transition [1][13]. - Aluminum prices have increased, with the current price at 21,555 CNY/ton. The supply remains stable, but demand has decreased slightly. The cost of alumina has also dropped, impacting overall profitability [1][22][23]. - Precious metals are under pressure due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with gold averaging 913.53 CNY/g and silver at 11,329 CNY/kg. The market is expected to remain volatile in the near term [2][27]. 2. Minor Metals - Antimony prices have slightly decreased, with the market showing signs of cautious trading. The demand from downstream sectors is stable, but the overall market remains under pressure from high costs [3][44]. - The rare earth sector is seeing a pause in export controls, which is expected to boost exports and stabilize prices. The price of light rare earths has increased by 4.5% to 555,000 CNY/ton [4][67]. 3. Market Predictions - For copper, the price is expected to fluctuate between 84,500 and 86,500 CNY/ton in the short term, with a potential for upward movement due to improved demand from infrastructure projects [14]. - Aluminum prices are predicted to remain high, with a trading range of 20,800 to 21,700 CNY/ton, supported by positive macroeconomic sentiment [24]. - Gold and silver prices are anticipated to continue their volatile trend, with gold expected to trade between 890 and 940 CNY/g and silver between 10,800 and 11,800 CNY/kg [28][29].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed situation with production adjustments and inventory changes, influenced by both domestic and international factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - In November, stainless steel production was 3.3752 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% month-on-month but an increase of 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - As of October 2025, the inventory of steel products in key steel enterprises was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons (11.8%) from the previous period, but an increase of 2.26 million tons (18.3%) from the beginning of the year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shutdown of POSCO's stainless steel plant in South Korea may lead to supply chain tensions, although domestic stainless steel inventory has slightly increased and terminal demand remains weak [2]. - The raw material costs are expected to decrease due to the Indonesian government's policies affecting nickel resource supply costs, while the production profits for steel mills are recovering [3]. Group 3: Demand and Pricing - The demand from downstream sectors is not strong, leading to a general increase in stainless steel social inventory, with market purchasing intentions remaining low [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a downward trend in prices with increased divergence between long and short positions, suggesting a focus on support levels around 12,400 [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining news. The high inventory pressure in the domestic aluminum ingot market in November is expected to have a negative feedback effect on the subsequent aluminum price [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou regional short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have also scheduled shutdowns, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [4]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro data shows that the US private employment and non - manufacturing PMI in October were better than expected. The Shanghai aluminum price was high yesterday [3]. - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, with the spot price under pressure, and the industry's profit margin has shrunk significantly. Although the weekly output of alumina has decreased slightly, the overall operating capacity remains high, and environmental protection policies may bring new constraints to production [4]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and the raw material inventory has continued to accumulate. The total industry inventory has reached a historical high of 4.599 million tons [4]. - The aluminum processing PMI in October fell below the boom - bust line, and the "Silver October" peak season was lackluster. The comprehensive PMI in November may decline further [4]. - As of November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons, and the inventory pressure in November has increased [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products continued to rebound, with prices trending strongly. The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, along with environmental production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, provided support to the prices. Demand remained relatively stable, while the real - estate sector was weak. - Raw materials are expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Macro - economic Situation**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% for the second time this year and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The Chinese and US leaders are to hold a meeting, which has improved the macro - market sentiment [1]. - **Cost and Profit of Steel Mills**: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3033 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3000 yuan/ton of common square billets on October 29th, the average loss of steel mills was 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fund Availability of Construction Sites**: As of October 28th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points [1]. - **Market Performance of Finished Products and Raw Materials**: Finished products continued to rebound yesterday with strong prices. Raw materials are in a low - level operation with a potential short - term rebound [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 88,700 yuan, the highest since late May of the previous year, and closing up by 1.73% [1] - Recent macroeconomic factors have positively influenced copper demand, including the approval of the domestic "14th Five-Year Plan," which has boosted market confidence, and preliminary agreements in the US-China trade negotiations [1] - The lower-than-expected CPI increase in the US for September has intensified market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to an anticipated increase in overseas liquidity and an overall warmer market atmosphere [1] Group 2 - Despite high prices, demand in October has been average; however, as of last Thursday, domestic refined copper social inventories have stopped accumulating [2] - According to Jinrui Futures, the recent marginal improvement in macroeconomic conditions is the main driver for copper prices, which are expected to see an increase in positions and may experience strong fluctuations in the short term [2] - Continuous attention is required on macroeconomic changes, as the fundamental reality remains weak, limiting the support for copper prices [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the steel products market is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. It also suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand in the later stage [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production Data - In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily output of 2.0953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. They produced 58.43 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 1.9476 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [3] Overseas Trade Frictions - The European Commission issued an anti - dumping affirmative final ruling on steel crawler tracks originating from China, with an anti - dumping duty of 62.5%. Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee issued an anti - circumvention affirmative final ruling on special iron pipes and steel pipes originating from China [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From October 13th to 19th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6386 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.7%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1837 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 70.5% [3] Market Performance - Steel products fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. During the day session, they rose first and then fell, and both varieties closed with a doji star, with little fluctuation. The macro data showed limited improvement in the real estate market, still putting pressure on building materials. Overseas trade frictions also put pressure on the export of steel plates. Attention should be paid to China - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is running at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing, mainly to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [2] - On October 18th, He Lifeng held a video call with the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] Production Data - Last week, 13 provincial steel mills had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 3 maintenance lines, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week, and 8 resumption lines, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week. The production affected by maintenance was 215,300 tons last week and is expected to be 63,800 tons this week [2] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills last week was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 65,900 tons year - on - year [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide last week was 53.2%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.32 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.85%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2] Price and Market Analysis - The finished steel prices fluctuated and declined last week, hitting new lows. Rebar was close to 3,000, and hot - rolled coil once fell below 3,200. After the holiday, the fundamentals of steel changed little, and the weak downstream situation improved limitedly. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak. Sino - US trade frictions affected market sentiment and caused the steel price to decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern, pessimistic market sentiment, and lackluster winter storage [1][2]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by the marginal improvement of the supply - demand pattern, the increase in downstream processing enterprise开工率, and the depletion of social inventory due to pre - holiday stocking [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content For成材 - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel producers will suspend production from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills has suspended production on January 5th, and most others will suspend production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week but a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Movement**: The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low recently. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity is moving down, and this year's winter storage is lackluster, providing little price support [2]. For铝锭 - **Macro Environment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the US economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously expected. Traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, lower than nearly 92% a week ago [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly due to the ramping up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% last week [2]. - **Downstream Performance**: The aluminum cable sector was the main driving force, with the operating rate increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors also increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry was facing challenges such as export decline and low - end product competition [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [2]. - **Price Outlook**: With the macro - interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled and approaching the peak consumption season, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and holiday risks [3].