Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers' shutdown time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, with the price hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - On the macro - level, the weaker - than - expected US ADP data has raised hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than the market expected, and the market is waiting for the upcoming non - farm payrolls report [1] - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina enterprise in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a 9.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 1.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - As of July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. In July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, the arrival of goods may continue. Coupled with the weak downstream consumption and slow pick - up, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase steadily in the early July [2] - Currently, the domestic bauxite price has not been significantly adjusted, and the long - term contract price of imported bauxite in the third quarter is expected to be mainly stable and declining. The spot trading of imported bauxite is light, and the price is stable [2] - The current off - season inventory accumulation has just begun, and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The macro - risk pricing has increased, and attention should be paid to the domestic policy promotion. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be mainly strong within the range, and then the inventory - consumption trend should be concerned [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The prices of finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and the prices of aluminum ingots are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3][4] - For finished products, it is necessary to focus on macro - policies and downstream demand; for aluminum ingots, it is necessary to focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, resuming around the 11th - 16th of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, down 40.3% month - on - month and up 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished product prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on July 2. The market is watching US employment data to judge the Fed's policy direction [2] - As of June 30, the theoretical profit of the alumina industry was 248 yuan/ton, but the capacity using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan was in a loss state, and cost support is expected to gradually emerge. Alumina enterprise inventory increased by 81,000 tons [3] - In June, the aluminum processing PMI was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, down 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year [3] - As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 468,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to increased supply in late June and high prices suppressing consumption, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in early July [3] - Overseas macro instability persists. Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but there are signs of inventory accumulation. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in ore prices, and the off - season demand limits the upside space [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪、下游开工、宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况和消费释放情况 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] -成材在供需双弱格局下价格震荡下行创近期新低，今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 -海外市场担心美国政府赤字及贸易协议不确定性，国内利好政策促进消费 [3] -截至6月30日，氧化铝行业理论利润248元/吨，山西、河南部分产能理论已亏损，成本支撑将体现 [4] -6月铝加工行业PMI综合指数40.1%，跌至荣枯线以下，环比降9.7个百分点，同比降1.5% [4] -上周铝线缆龙头企业开工下降，国网订单匹配慢，采购节奏放缓 [4] -6月30日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存46.8万吨，较上周四增0.5万吨，环比上周一增0.4万吨 [4] -7月上旬国内铝锭库存预计稳中小增，关注到货和累库持续性 [4] -海外宏观不稳定，低库存支撑铝价但库存走势反复，几内亚雨季影响矿石价格，需求端淡季限制上行空间 [5]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：预计库存拐点临近 铝价区间运行 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上涨铝价先抑后扬。美国财政部长贝森特周五早些时候表示，特 朗普政府与其他国家达成的各项贸易协议可能会在 9 月 ...

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间调整。鲍威尔在美国国会作证时表示，他和许多官 员都预计通胀将很快开始上升，美联储并不急于在此期间降低借贷成本， 但美元仍然下跌。以色列和伊朗停火缓解地缘风险，降低资 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 6 月 18 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。美国经济数据趋软以及中东地缘政治紧张局 势令市场感到紧张。美国 5 月零售销售弱于预期，但消费者支出仍然受到 稳健薪资增长的支撑。关注美联储周三政策决定，市场普遍预计美联储将 维持其指标隔夜利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.50%不变，但焦点仍将集中在有 关利率前景的任何指 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：去库持续 关注支撑力度 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to undergo short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui have or will shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3]. - **Price Trend**: Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. - **Future Focus**: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]. Aluminum - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, and US officials are accelerating trade negotiations. The dollar is under pressure due to tariff threats [2]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The impact of the Guinea bauxite mining rights incident on market sentiment is easing, and the market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term. Imported bauxite prices are expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase. In May 2025, China's bauxite production increased by 5.0% MoM and 19.1% YoY [3]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the average profit of the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton. In June, alumina production capacity is expected to gradually resume and new production capacity will be further released [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The PMI composite index in May was 49.8%, in the contraction range. The industry is in a slack season, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 511,000 tons, showing a decline [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a range, and attention should be paid to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons and macro - policy changes [4]. - **Future Focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4].

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 0.4 percentage points to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production shows marginal recovery, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased by 8.8 percentage points to -2% [1][41] - Cement average prices continue to decline [1][29] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions show marginal improvement, with average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales remain strong, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% respectively [2][80] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has improved, while container shipping prices show mixed performance [2][89] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1%, with energy and chemical prices down by 1.3% and metal prices down by 0.6% [2][111]