General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The demand for pigs is in the off - season. The previous continuous pressure on pigs and reduced sales by enterprises continue to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, as the group's sales volume gradually recovers, the price is回调. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase. Around the middle and late July, group - owned breeding enterprises may increase the volume of sales to meet the monthly sales target, and pig prices may be under pressure due to the off - season of consumption [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and then fell in a volatile manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,324 lots to 161,386 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元 outside the country was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remains low, the utilization rate of pigsty is relatively high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish stocks is low, and only a small amount enters the market. With the rise in temperature, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On the supply side, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises in July decreased by 1.19% month - on - month compared with June, and the sales volume may be slightly reduced. The sales volume of groups is gradually recovering, and the average weight of pigs for sale is slightly decreasing, but there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 3, the profit per head from self - breeding and self - fattening was 171.09 yuan, an increase of 54.48 yuan per head compared with the previous week. The profit per head from purchasing piglets for fattening was 14.15 yuan, an increase of 16.71 yuan per head compared with the previous week [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week ending July 3 was 530 yuan/head, remaining the same as the previous week [21] - In the week ending July 3, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5608 million heads, a decrease of 125,900 heads compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 139,029 heads, a decrease of 5,040 heads compared with the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 3.50%. The slaughter volume on Thursday of this week was 134,338 heads, a decrease of 7,789 heads compared with Thursday of the previous week, a decrease of 5.48% [21] - As of the week ending July 3, the average weight of pigs for sale nationwide was 128.64 kg, an increase of 0.50 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, and an increase of 2.93 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (6.30 - 7.6), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan was 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows was 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight at the beginning of the month, and the demand decreased during the week. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The futures price of live pigs also showed a strong trend. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14420 yuan/ton, a low of 13820 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14305 yuan/ton. The basis was 875 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week (7.7 - 7.13), the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the policy of purchasing and storing may support the price, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is getting smaller. The LH2509 contract price is mainly driven by sentiment. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan decreased from 37.3 yuan/kg last week to 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan increased from 14.93 yuan/kg last week to 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to light pressure on group slaughter at the beginning of the month and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand decreased with the increase in temperature. The average slaughter weight was 125.13KG, a 0.1% decrease from last week [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price was strong. The high was 14420 yuan/ton, the low was 13820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14305 yuan/ton, compared with 14005 yuan/ton last week. The basis was 875 yuan/ton, down from 925 yuan/ton last week [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact during the off - season. Although there is a policy bottom expectation from purchasing and storing, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is shrinking. There may be second - fattening entry in early and mid - July, but attention should be paid to pressure release [4]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price first traded on the basis logic and then on the anti - involution logic. It is currently mainly sentiment - driven. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spot profit - taking and anti - spread trading opportunities [5]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 875 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 585 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight this week was 125.13KG (last week was 125.26KG). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [13]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related data summary was provided other than the description of the current weak demand situation in the market outlook section.

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 04 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，3 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最 高 14420 元/吨，最低 142500 元/吨，收盘报 143 ...

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in live pig futures prices are influenced by the rhythm of livestock sales and market sentiment, with a recent sharp decline following a rebound from low points [2] - The current strong performance of live pig spot prices is attributed to farmers holding back sales and the entry of secondary fattening, while rising temperatures slow weight gain [2][3] - In June, the average trading price of live pigs in China was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 2.16% and a year-on-year decline of 21.81% [2] Group 2 - The overall trend of live pig prices from January to June was characterized by a decline, fluctuation, and subsequent drop, primarily due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025 [3] - Analysts expect a supply lag in the second half of the year, which may impact short-term supply and subsequently depress prices [3] - The current market anticipates price increases ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, providing some support for spot prices [3][4] Group 3 - The increase in pig prices in late June was linked to group enterprises reducing weights and some farmers resuming secondary fattening, despite a generally abundant supply [4] - The demand for pork is expected to decrease as the market enters a consumption lull, limiting the upward momentum for prices [4][5] - In July, there may be a reduction in supply due to some breeding enterprises having room for weight reduction, although most do not plan to reduce weights [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market for live pigs showed strong performance, with the price of 20KG piglets in Henan at 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan at 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to significant reduction by large - scale farms and reluctance to sell by smallholders, while the demand increased slightly but was further suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.23% week - on - week. The futures market for live pigs showed strong fluctuations, with the LH2509 contract closing at 14005 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. During the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a significant impact on prices. Although large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy, and the core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of social pigpens. The LH2509 contract price is expected to continue to rise in the short term, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14500 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market [3][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (6.23 - 6.29) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 37.8 yuan/kg last week to 37.3 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 14.93 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1621 yuan/head last week to 1623 yuan/head. Supply was tight due to large - scale farms reducing supply and smallholders' reluctance to sell, while demand increased slightly but was suppressed by rising temperatures. The average slaughter weight was 125.26KG, a 0.23% decrease from last week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live pigs showed strong fluctuations. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14005 yuan/ton (compared with 13895 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 925 yuan/ton (compared with 535 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.30 - 7.6) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Large - scale farms are reducing the weight of pigs according to the plan, but smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the secondary fattening group is actively replenishing stocks. With the expectation of government purchasing, the spot price may turn strong again. Supply may increase in the third quarter, and demand is in the off - season, with limited downstream support. The policy of government purchasing provides support, and the expectation of a policy bottom has been formed, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price closed at 14005 yuan/ton on June 27. The market expectation is strong in the short term, and there is still a bullish sentiment. The expected centralized de - stocking time has not arrived, and it is necessary to wait for the confirmation of the spot market. The support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 925 yuan/ton, and the spread between LH2509 and LH2511 was 560 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 125.26KG (compared with 125.55KG last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% increase month - on - month, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% increase month - on - month [11]. - **Demand**: Not specifically summarized in the text.

农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 二育滚动入场，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14000元/吨，较前交易日变动+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.43%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动-20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+0；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-140。 据农业农村部监测，6月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.57，比昨天下降0.15个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.57，比昨天下降0.17个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉63.58 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.67元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.29元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡16.99元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 综合来 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 供需博弈，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13940元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.70元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+760，较前交易日变动+20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.95元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+170；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-190，较前交易日变动+40。 据农业农村部监测， 据农业农村部监测，6月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.72，比昨天上升0.12个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.74，比昨天上升0.14个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.29元/公斤，比昨 天上升1.0%；牛肉63.72元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；羊肉59.69元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.33元/公斤，比昨 天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.16元/公斤，比昨天上升1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 策略 谨慎偏空 出栏略有减少，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13980元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.72元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动+305；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+840，较前交易日变动+75；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-230，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，6月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.08元/公斤，比上周五下降1.2%； 牛肉64.01元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.34元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.8%；白条鸡16.88元/公斤，比 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase while demand enters a seasonal off - peak, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term trend is likely to be weak, with attention needed on the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies [9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 13,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,715 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,760 yuan/ton, a 0.47% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,240 lots to 160,443 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the national average price of三元hogs was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsty increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On June 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 146,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,900 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Enterprises were reducing weights and slaughtering normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] - **Policy Side**: On June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10][12] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [18] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [18] - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [18] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [18]