农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 二育滚动入场，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14000元/吨，较前交易日变动+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.43%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动-20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+0；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-140。 据农业农村部监测，6月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.57，比昨天下降0.15个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.57，比昨天下降0.17个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉63.58 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.67元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.29元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡16.99元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.0%。 市场分析 综合来 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 供需博弈，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13940元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.70元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+760，较前交易日变动+20；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.95元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1010，较前交易日变动+170；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-190，较前交易日变动+40。 据农业农村部监测， 据农业农村部监测，6月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.72，比昨天上升0.12个点，"菜 篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.74，比昨天上升0.14个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.29元/公斤，比昨 天上升1.0%；牛肉63.72元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；羊肉59.69元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.33元/公斤，比昨 天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.16元/公斤，比昨天上升1 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 策略 谨慎偏空 出栏略有减少，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13980元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.72元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+740，较前交易日变动+305；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH09+840，较前交易日变动+75；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-230，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，6月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为112.60，比上周五上升0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.08元/公斤，比上周五下降1.2%； 牛肉64.01元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.34元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.8%；白条鸡16.88元/公斤，比 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase while demand enters a seasonal off - peak, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term trend is likely to be weak, with attention needed on the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies [9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 13,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,715 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,760 yuan/ton, a 0.47% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,240 lots to 160,443 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the national average price of三元hogs was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsty increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On June 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 146,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,900 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Enterprises were reducing weights and slaughtering normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] - **Policy Side**: On June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10][12] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [18] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [18] - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [18] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [18]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, particularly focusing on the impact of environmental policies in Hunan and other provinces on pig farming and supply dynamics [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Environmental Policies Impact**: Hunan's strict environmental checks are accelerating the exit of smallholders from pig farming, which may significantly affect local pig production capacity. This policy targets farms with over 50 pigs and is expected to last from June to September [2][4]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The exit of smallholders has reduced their share in pig inventory to below 40%. The tightening of environmental regulations may also impact medium and large-scale farms, as few meet compliance standards [2][4]. - **Market Behavior**: In the Southwest region, farmers are increasingly raising larger pigs due to local dietary preferences and favorable feed prices. Current average slaughter weight is around 135 kg, and a reduction to 120 kg could increase supply pressure by approximately 10% [6][7]. - **Price Trends**: High piglet prices in the first half of the year are attributed to increased demand from the expansion of free-range farming in Shandong and the growing need for piglet fattening in the Southwest [9][11]. - **Substitution Effects**: Farmers are shifting from breeding sows to fattening piglets or finishing pigs, creating a substitution effect between these two farming methods [10][11]. - **Demand Comparison**: The Southwest region shows stronger demand compared to Shandong, driven by insufficient frozen meat stocks and anti-dumping policies limiting imports, which narrows the price gap between fresh and frozen products [12][13]. - **Cost Structure**: Listed companies with self-breeding and self-raising practices have a cost advantage, with production costs around 12-12.5 yuan per kg, compared to 13-14 yuan per kg for smallholders who purchase piglets [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Effects on Market Behavior**: The recent ban on secondary fattening by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has paradoxically increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening among farmers, as they anticipate price increases [8]. - **Future Outlook**: There may be a concentration of market supply in the second half of the year due to NDRC's requirements for large enterprises to reduce average weights. The impact of piglet diarrhea in the Southwest during the first quarter is expected to have a minor effect on supply in July and August [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine industry, highlighting the interplay between regulatory changes, market dynamics, and cost structures.

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply continues to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [7]. - Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot. The current price increase is seen as a rebound, and in the medium to long term, it is affected by the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - fattening sales. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future reserve policies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 pig futures contract opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,217 lots to 166,443 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Policy**: On June 9, Huachu Network announced the notice of the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on June 11, 2025, with a purchase and storage volume of 10,000 tons. The final transaction price of No. 2 - 4 meat on the 11th was 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the pen utilization rate is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased. With rising temperatures, terminal demand has weakened, and slaughterhouse orders have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143,900 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 900 heads from a week ago [7]. - **Supply**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter weight remained high as farmers slaughtered normally and those who previously engaged in second - fattening actively sold their pigs due to the inverted price difference [7]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - In May, the average market sales price of 15KG piglets was 627 yuan/head, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [11]. - In May, the average national slaughter weight was 129.5 kg, a 0.6 kg increase from April, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [11]. - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, it was 2.5%, a 3.7 percentage - point month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the price of pig compound feed was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month and a 2% year - on - year increase [11]. - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg and a 4.38% decrease compared to 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg and a 5.9% decrease compared to 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, pricing trends, and production strategies for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Due to policy impacts, there has been a reduction in secondary fattening and restocking, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to high barn utilization rates, especially in Northeast, Henan, and Shandong provinces [1]. - The average weight of pigs is expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025, resulting in greater supply pressure [1][6]. - The expected increase in slaughter volume from mid-June to mid-July may slightly alleviate supply pressure, but overall price trends are downward [1][7]. Pricing Trends - Current profitability for commodity pigs is approximately 160 RMB per head, while profitability for piglets ranges from 460 to 480 RMB [1][13]. - The average price of pigs is projected to remain between 14 to 15 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025, with industry average costs around 13.5 RMB, leading to an average profit of about 200 RMB per head [2]. - A significant price drop is anticipated, with projections suggesting prices could fall to 13.5 RMB per kilogram by mid-July [17]. Production Strategies - Major enterprises are implementing weight reduction strategies to manage supply and stabilize prices, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt changes [8][9]. - The trend of weight reduction is expected to continue through July, with a potential rebound in prices due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [14]. - The expansion of breeding sow capacity among leading enterprises has stabilized, with a slight increase expected in 2024 due to anticipated demand for piglets in 2025 [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment among large-scale producers is cautious, with many not willing to expand sow capacity despite current profitability [19][20]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential price rebounds in late July due to reduced supply and seasonal demand [14][16]. - The possibility of government intervention exists if prices fall below 14 RMB per kilogram, as seen in previous instances [16][17]. Additional Insights - The secondary fattening process has seen a significant impact, with leading enterprises halting sales of pigs intended for this purpose, leading to a stalemate in the market [3]. - The collaboration between breeding farms and fattening companies is increasing, driven by the need for stable piglet supply and cost reduction [24][25]. - The overall industry faces challenges in managing sow capacity, particularly in light of past rapid expansions following African swine fever outbreaks [18]. Conclusion - The swine industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply pressures, pricing challenges, and strategic production adjustments. The focus remains on managing weight reductions and anticipating market fluctuations while considering policy impacts and market sentiment.