Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (12.29 - 1.4), the spot market for live pigs showed a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The prices of 20KG piglets in Henan and live pigs in Henan increased slightly, while the price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged. The supply was tight due to significant reduction in group sales at the end of the month and strong reluctance of individual farmers to sell, and the demand decreased after the holiday. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, the price of live pig futures trended strongly. The LH2603 contract had a higher closing price compared to the previous week, and the basis widened [2]. - Next week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026 according to piglet data, and the supply pressure has not been effectively relieved. The demand has over - anticipated the market but has also advanced the speculative demand for restocking. After the New Year's Day, the demand enters a vacuum period, and enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, putting pressure on the spot price. For the LH2603 futures contract, it is also under pressure, with a short - term support level at 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level at 12200 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan rose from 21.1 yuan/kg last week to 21.75 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 12.08 yuan/kg last week to 12.45 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows remained at 1546 yuan/head. The average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract had a highest price of 11880 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 11670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11795 yuan/ton (compared to 11645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (compared to 435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - **Spot Market**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a vacuum period after the holiday. Enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will be under pressure [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in social sentiment. The short - term support level is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 655 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 124.54KG (compared to 124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current market for live pig prices is experiencing an upward trend, supported by a combination of factors including reduced supply and increased demand from slaughterhouses [1][3] - As of December 30, the price of live pigs (internal three yuan) reached 12.32 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 0.13 yuan per kilogram or 1.07% from the previous day [1] - Over the past week, the price of live pigs has risen by 0.83 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 7.22% increase, while the monthly increase stands at 1.14 yuan per kilogram, or 10.20% [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Department reported that as of October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [1] - Institutions like Hengyin Futures suggest that the current market sentiment among pig farmers is bullish, with a strong reluctance to sell, which is expected to support short-term pig prices [3] - Dongzheng Futures predicts a market scenario of "near weak, far strong" by the first half of 2026, recommending a reverse spread strategy as a foundational approach for capturing price discrepancies throughout the year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with pig prices fluctuating narrowly within a range. The overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, so pig prices lack the driving force for continuous upward movement. After a phased rebound, pig prices are expected to continue to be weakly adjusted. The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend, and the short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, while the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis [10][13]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly, and the overall demand pull is limited. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter rhythm is normal, the market sentiment of bullishness has increased, and a small amount of second - fattening has entered the market, supporting the phased rebound of prices. However, the overall supply - side pressure remains high, the progress of capacity reduction is slow, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [10][22]. - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. Although the capacity regulation has achieved initial results, the inventory of fertile sows is still in the green and reasonable area of capacity regulation, which does not mean the start of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. The production efficiency of the pig - breeding industry has increased significantly, and the cycle of capacity reduction has been continuously lengthened. It is expected that the lowest price point of this cycle will be in the first quarter of 2026 [10]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a key game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to grow until the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally ease. The domestic total pork consumption shows a steady downward trend. The short - term spot market of live pigs may continue to be weakly volatile, and the futures market will decline weakly to repair the basis. Although the traditional consumption demand in winter may boost the market, it is difficult to change the pattern of supply growth exceeding demand growth. In December, scale enterprises may accelerate the slaughter, increasing the supply pressure [13]. - Strategy: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the national live pig market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The main contract will fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000. For options, out - of - the - money put options can be sold [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot was 11.44 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67%. The demand for curing and pickling has increased, but the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises has not increased significantly. The supply - side pressure remains high, and the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged [22]. - Spot - futures basis: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Futures spread: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Standard - fat price: The standard - fat spread this week was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg compared with last week, mainly due to the strengthening of the fat pig price dominated by seasonal demand [40]. - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets nationwide this week was 217.38 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40.87%. The current national piglet profit is about a loss of 50 yuan/head [45]. - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows still sells at a 60% - 80% discount. It follows the narrow - range adjustment of live pig prices. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust [48]. 3.3 Capacity - Inventory of fertile sows: In October 2025, the inventory of fertile sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. According to the statistics of 208 fixed - point sample enterprises by Mysteel Agricultural Products, in November, the inventory of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0294 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 169,680, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the inventory of fertile sows in China may still slightly decrease in December [53][57]. - Culling volume of fertile sows: In November, the culling volume of fertile sows in 123 large - scale farms was 112,378, a month - on - month increase of 5.05% and a year - on - year increase of 14.63%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the culling volume was 11,605, a month - on - month increase of 1.38% and a year - on - year increase of 29.36%. It is expected that the culling of fertile sows may still increase in December [60]. 3.4 Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In November, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.0059 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the inventory was 1.5573 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.94%. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs may increase month - on - month in December [68]. - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, the slaughter volume was 515,100, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume of the breeding end may still increase in December [71]. - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: As the standard - fat spread widened this week, farmers' intention to slaughter standard pigs decreased, and the proportion of large - pig supply increased, but the overall slaughter volume was limited. The average weight of large - scale farms decreased slightly [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: In December 2025, as the peak season of curing and pickling approached, the temperature in the northern region began to drop, and the white - strip price was running at a relatively low level during the year. The terminal sales improved slightly, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, with an expected increase of 20% [83]. - Cold storage capacity rate of slaughtering enterprises: The cold storage capacity rate was about 18.31%. The consumption improved month - on - month, but slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in destocking frozen products. The overall frozen product dumping intensity was limited, and the inventory changed little. It is expected that the fresh - sales rate may continue to rise slightly in the near future [90]. - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: Affected by the winter solstice stocking last weekend, the enterprise operating rate increased, but after the winter solstice, the market demand declined, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Next week is the New Year's Day holiday, which may support the consumption end, and the weekly average operating rate will maintain a volatile upward trend. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the cold storage capacity rate increased slightly [91]. - Substitute price: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content 3.6 Cost and Profit - Pig - breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig - breeding industry narrowed slightly. The average loss per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode was 66.57 yuan, and the average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets was still 223.82 yuan. In the short term, the pig price is expected to continue to rebound next week, and the breeding profit may be slightly repaired, but the long - term profitability pressure will still continue [102]. - Slaughter gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: Not specifically analyzed in detail in the content - Pig - grain ratio: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 4.97, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The pig price rose slightly after a decline, and the corn price was weakly volatile. The market is still in a loss state and is adjusted in the third - level early - warning range of excessive decline. It is expected that the domestic pig - grain ratio may continue to rise slightly next week [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot market for live pigs showed strong prices. The supply decreased significantly due to enterprises reducing slaughter and high reluctance to sell among retail farmers after the Winter Solstice, while demand decreased this week but remained in the peak season. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly [1]. - Next week (12.29 - 1.4), live pig spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have driven up prices. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices. In the futures market, the LH2601 contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread and stop - loss [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.22 - 12.28) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Henan 20KG piglet price was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), Henan live pig price was 12.08 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week) [1]. - After the Winter Solstice, supply decreased as enterprises reduced slaughter and retail farmers were reluctant to sell. Demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season. The national average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% MoM decrease [1]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The live pig futures LH2601 contract had a maximum price of 11495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11150 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The LH2601 contract basis was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.29 - 1.4) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have led to a sharp price increase. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices [3]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11300 yuan/ton on December 26th. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price rose rapidly. The January contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, with a short - term support level of 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12200 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4]. 3.3 Other Data 3.3.1 Basis and Monthly Spread - This week's basis was 780 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 345 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.54KG (down from 124.79KG last week). In October, pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% MoM increase, and pork imports were 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% MoM decrease [11]. 3.3.3 Demand - Not specifically summarized in the text, but it is mentioned that demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season, and there were changes in different demand periods such as after the Winter Solstice and after New Year's Day [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pig prices are entering an upward trend, driven by reduced supply and expanding price differentials in the market [2][7] - The upcoming opportunities for pig price increases are identified as the New Year and pre-Spring Festival periods, with the latter expected to have a more significant impact on demand [3][5] Group 2 - Factors contributing to increased consumption include lower temperatures, which are expected to boost pork consumption as winter progresses [5] - There are three waves of consumption anticipated: the first wave is related to traditional cured meats, the second wave is for New Year celebrations, and the third wave is for the Spring Festival, which is expected to drive demand significantly [5][7] - The trend of secondary fattening is rising, with an increase in the outflow of medium and large pigs, as farmers anticipate higher prices due to increased demand leading up to the Spring Festival [7][9] - Market sentiment remains weak, but there is an expectation that pig prices will stabilize and begin to rise steadily soon [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in China's pig farming industry, highlighting the prolonged downturn in pig prices and the impact of the pig cycle on the market dynamics [3][4][11]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - Since April 2022, the current pig cycle has been marked by a prolonged low point, with the average purchase price of live pigs dropping to 13.11 yuan per kilogram by late November 2025, reflecting a 0.9% decrease month-on-month and a 27% decrease year-on-year [4][9]. - The lack of seasonal demand during the year-end peak indicates a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the market [4]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Major pig farming companies like Tian Kang Biological, Shennong Group, and others have halted their pig farming projects, while leading firms such as Muyuan, Wens, and others have also suspended multiple projects due to cash flow pressures [5][6]. - The overall asset-liability ratio of listed pig companies has increased, indicating heightened financial stress within the industry [6]. Group 3: Smallholder Challenges - Traditional small-scale pig farmers face dire circumstances due to their limited purchasing power for feed and veterinary supplies, resulting in higher production costs compared to large-scale operations [7]. - The cost of raising pigs for smallholders has significantly increased, with a notable difference in costs compared to large-scale farmers, leading to greater financial losses during the current price downturn [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The number of breeding sows in China has remained above the normal level of 39 million, with recent figures showing around 40.4 million, contributing to the oversupply in the market [8][9]. - The prolonged low prices are attributed to the high number of breeding sows and the inability of the market to absorb the excess supply, exacerbated by competition from alternative proteins like chicken and beef [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current pig cycle is seen as a potential turning point, not in terms of price recovery, but in the structural changes within the pig farming industry due to increased scale and consolidation [15]. - Companies are shifting from merely raising pigs to integrating downstream operations such as slaughtering and meat processing to mitigate cyclical risks and enhance profitability [17][18].

当前时点生猪养殖板块的最新变化 20251209 摘要 当前生猪市场供应充足，屠宰量维持高位，但高屠宰量未能有效缓解供 应压力，因淘汰母猪鲜销率低，大量进入冻库，实际供应压力仍然存在。 2025 年疫病形势严峻，尤其在山东临沂周边地区阳性率高，对集团企 业也造成影响，但疫病与猪价关系不大，主要受养殖密度和集中性影响， 全国规模化把控出栏节奏缓解了疫病对出栏量的直接冲击。 疫病主要集中在山东泰安、临沂及其周边地区，并呈现由北向南扩散趋 势，气温下降加大了防控难度，高养殖密度仍是冬季节性疫病传播的重 要原因。 养殖行业产能区划正在发生，头部和尾部企业逐步退出，腰部企业缓和 去化，现金流压力普遍存在，12 月和 1 月是关键期，若亏损持续或扩大， 企业现金流可能断裂。 中型养殖企业从银行融资渠道未发生显著变化，银根收紧主要受年底盈 利情况影响，淘汰母猪价格坚挺，并非淘汰减少，而是因淘汰胎龄下降， 鲜销比例提升。 仔猪价格反弹明显，北方疫病导致补栏推迟，南方规模主体大量补栏， 推动价格上涨，表明当前仔猪补栏情绪比预期更高。 预计 2026 年春节前后猪价将触及养殖大周期底部，节前体重和育肥规 模是关键变量，若能有效降 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on November Pig Production Data Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the production capacity and market trends as of November 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production Capacity - The national breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.62% month-on-month in November 2025, but increased by 0.82% year-on-year. Compared to the peak in June, there was a reduction of 380,000 sows, primarily due to policy guidance, market expectations, and disease impacts [1][2]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter in November was 124.66 kg, showing a slight increase of 0.09% month-on-month but a decrease of 0.83% year-on-year [1][6]. Market Prices and Profitability - The average price of pigs continued to decline, reaching 11.13 CNY/kg by December 5, 2025. This price level resulted in over 95% of enterprises operating at a loss, with losses of approximately 100 CNY per head for self-breeding and around 300 CNY per head for piglet fattening [1][5]. - The price is expected to remain below 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival due to sufficient supply and increased slaughtering pace in December [1][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs in November was ample, with a decrease in large enterprise slaughtering but also a significant reduction in secondary fattening targets, which dropped by 71% [1][7][8]. - The demand in southern regions was weak due to higher temperatures and lower stocking intentions, contributing to the price decline [1][8]. Future Price Predictions - It is anticipated that pig prices will not exceed 12 CNY/kg before the Spring Festival, with a potential slight increase in mid-December due to increased stocking by downstream buyers and reduced slaughtering by farming groups [1][10]. Disease Impact - Recent outbreaks of pig diseases in regions like Shandong and Jiangsu have affected both small-scale and large farming groups, leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory [1][4][11]. - The disease situation has worsened compared to the previous year, with a significant increase in incidence rates, particularly in the northern regions [1][21]. Financial Health of the Industry - The overall cash flow situation in the pig farming industry is poor, with losses per pig reaching 300 to 400 CNY since August 2025. Approximately 60% to 70% of farming companies are experiencing cash flow difficulties [1][18][19]. Cost Trends and Future Outlook - The cost of pig farming is expected to continue decreasing, primarily due to lower feed prices and the adoption of superior breeding stock, which enhances reproductive performance and reduces feed conversion ratios [1][23][24]. - The industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability by the second half of 2026 as production capacity decreases and demand increases during peak consumption seasons [1][15]. Additional Important Insights - The differences in data reporting between the Ministry of Agriculture and third-party organizations highlight the complexities in understanding market dynamics and the impact of policy measures on production capacity [1][12]. - The willingness of small and medium-sized farms to reduce production capacity is low, as they anticipate potential profits during peak demand periods [1][13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the pig farming industry in China.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain weak in the near term, with supply pressure remaining high and demand growth having already been realized. The release of pressure from stocked pigs and the acceleration of slaughter will continue to weigh on spot prices [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2601 contract price is under pressure due to the weak spot market. If multiple regions initiate delivery simultaneously in early January, the cost of taking delivery will increase significantly, leading to a return of the basis logic. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads and proper stop - loss and take - profit measures [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (12.1 - 12.7) - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (last week: 20.9 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan was 11.53 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (last week: 1,548 yuan/head). Supply remained relatively loose as group enterprises reduced supply at the beginning of the month while the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased. Demand increased overall after the temperature drop. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 124.64KG (last week: 124.62KG), a 0.02% increase week - on - week [2]. - **Futures Market**: The price of live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The highest price of the LH2601 contract was 11,585 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,385 yuan/ton (last week: 11,465 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 145 yuan/ton (last week: - 80 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (12.8 - 12.14) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will operate weakly. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and there was a large amount of secondary fattening backlog in October. Although demand was boosted after the temperature drop, the supply pressure was still significant, resulting in a continuous decline in prices. In December, enterprise slaughter decreased significantly, the demand increase after the temperature drop has been realized, and the active and passive selling of stocked pigs has begun. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has significantly narrowed, and there are also local epidemic impacts and cash - flow problems, so the slaughter will continue to accelerate, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2601 contract closed at 11,465 yuan/ton on December 5th. In the first week of December, the enthusiasm of enterprises for slaughter was low, but the slaughter volume continued to increase. The price difference between fat and standard pigs weakened, the weight continued to rise, and the spot price was weak. The January contract still had a large premium over the lowest deliverable price, and deliveries were initiated in many places. If multiple regions initiate delivery simultaneously in early January, combined with the discount of small - sized pigs, the cost of taking delivery will increase significantly, leading to a return of the basis logic. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads, and the short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, with a pressure level of 12,000 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: This week's basis was 145 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 calendar spread was 300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 124.64KG (last week: 124.62KG). In September, the pork production was 5.496 billion tons, a 3.5% increase month - on - month; in October, the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% decrease month - on - month [11].

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of oversupply, leading to significant price declines and deep losses for producers, with the current average price of live pigs falling nearly 30% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in trading focus from the 2601 to the 2603 futures contract indicates a temporary easing of pressure on near-term contracts, but the overall rebound remains weak due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1]. - As of the end of November, the average price of live pigs in China is between 11.4 to 11.7 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. - The current pig production capacity reduction is slow, with only about 800,000 fewer breeding sows in the year, despite a recent decline in the breeding sow population below 40 million for the first time in 15 months [2][3]. Group 2: Production Capacity Challenges - The slow pace of capacity reduction is attributed to three main factors: the resilience of large-scale farms, incomplete capacity reduction among smallholders, and an increase in the number of heavier pigs being raised [2][3]. - Large-scale farms are less inclined to reduce production due to their financial and technical advantages, with a slight increase in breeding sow numbers in certain regions [2]. - Smallholder farmers are hesitant to reduce their herds, hoping for a rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, which has led to a lack of significant capacity reduction [2][5]. Group 3: Supply Pressure and Market Expectations - The phenomenon of secondary fattening has intensified supply pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of heavier pigs being sold, exacerbating the oversupply situation [4][5]. - Producers are facing a "price inversion" situation where the cost of fattening exceeds the selling price, leading to increased losses [4]. - The expectation of a recovery in demand has not materialized, with consumer spending on dining out at a 15-month low, further complicating the market dynamics [5]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory framework aims to balance long-term production capacity control with short-term market stabilization measures, but the effectiveness of these policies is limited by the deep supply-demand imbalance [6][7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has set a target for breeding sow numbers and will implement counter-cyclical management to address significant deviations from this target [7]. - The temporary meat storage policy is intended to provide short-term market support, but its impact is minimal due to limited storage capacity and the time lag in implementation [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The effects of production capacity adjustments are expected to manifest in 10 to 12 months, while immediate price pressures can only be temporarily alleviated through storage policies [8]. - Without a substantial recovery in consumer demand, the overall weak market conditions in the pig industry are likely to persist [8].