gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月01日 (原油) 周日OPEC+8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年Q1暂停增产。委内瑞拉抗议 美方企图以武力控制其石油。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在波斯湾水域扣押了一艘载走私燃料的外籍油 轮。短期消息面对油价有所提振，外盘油价周一盘初走高1%。中长期基本面库存宽松压力仍存，油 价反弹空间及持续性或有限。 (责金属) 周五市场并未有显著的利多消息,但国际银价大涨超过6%带动贵金属整体强势,体现其在美联储降 息预期增强背景下金融属性和现货偏紧的双重支撑及高波动特点。 铂肥上市伊始国内投资者对铂的 青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于叙,倾向多铂空肥。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 【铜】 上周五伦铜再创高，沪铜盘中增仓跟涨，短线贵金属提供溢价情绪，中长线市场持续看涨来年铜均 价上涨，流动性、绿碳与智算相结合的需求以及矿端低加工费博弈向冶炼环节传导，且美伦价差可 能继续吸引去美库存,共同支撑涨势。短线多单持有,关注资金变动。 (铝) 周五贵金属和铜太幅上行,沪铝跟涨。近期铝锭有所去库,总体李节性表现偏中性,现货维持贴 水， ...

俄乌最新消息。 当地时间11月27日，美国市场因感恩节休市，欧股市场普遍微涨。 | | | 欧非中东市场 (EMEA) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 英国富时100 | 9693.93 | 2.35 | 0.02% | | 法国CAC40 | 8099.47c | 3.04 | 0.04% | | 德国DAX | 23767.96c | 41.74 | 0.18% | | 意大利富时MIB | 43219.87c | 89.55 | 0.21% | 国际油价小幅上涨，投资者等待俄乌和谈的下一步进展。截至收盘，NYMEX WTI原油涨0.77%，ICE布油涨0.61%。黄金则小幅下跌，截至收盘，伦敦金 现微跌0.14%，COMEX黄金跌0.3%。 消息面上，美俄乌新一轮接触在即，但诸多核心议题仍存严重分歧。俄罗斯总统普京27日称美方代表团将于下周到访莫斯科。同一天，乌克兰总统泽连 斯基也表示，乌美代表团将于本周晚些时候举行会谈。 有消息人士称，是否要求乌克兰放弃顿巴斯地区的领土、是否将乌军规模限制在60万人内以及是否要求乌克兰放弃加 ...

据白俄罗斯国家通讯社26日报道，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科当天表示，愿在首都明斯克重启俄乌和平谈 判。 卢卡申科是当天在吉尔吉斯斯坦比什凯克参加集体安全条约组织（集安组织）集体安全理事会会议期间 会见俄罗斯总统普京时作出上述表态的。 卢卡申科表示，白俄罗斯保持着与美国等西方国家的对话，并且作为俄罗斯的盟友，白俄罗斯参与乌克 兰危机协调行动具有合理性。 今日周四(11月27日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12296一线上方，今日开盘于12250元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12371元/千克，上涨2.08%，最高触及12483元/千克，最低下探12161元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 普京强调卢卡申科为解决乌克兰危机作出了贡献。他说，俄乌就和平解决危机的首次接触就是在白俄罗 斯境内展开，在卢卡申科的直接参与和支持下进行的，并取得了成果。俄方乐意向白方通报相关进展。 此外，双方还就保障俄白联盟国家安全等议题交换了意见。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银上涨已经最高到12480，看涨到12500，呈多头上涨趋势，银溢价收敛至345元/克，沪银情绪依旧 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to rising interest - rate cut expectations and the easing situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" because of macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - The core logic is that gold has been oscillating at a high level. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December rising from about 30% - 40% a week ago to over 80%, causing the dollar index to weaken and the gold price to rise. Meanwhile, news of progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks has reduced gold's safe - haven appeal. In the short term, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4200 level for New York gold and the 950 - yuan level in the domestic market [3]. Copper - Yesterday, after the Asian session, LME copper rose to the $11,000 level and then pulled back. At night, SHFE copper oscillated around the 87,000 - yuan level with a slight increase in open interest. Industrially, rising overseas inventories put pressure on the copper price, while the decline in domestic electrolytic copper inventories provides support. With rising interest - rate cut expectations, capital attention has increased, and the copper price is expected to remain strong. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].

Market Overview - The market is betting on an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to a decline in the dollar to a one-week low [1] - Expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are limiting safe-haven demand, while several Federal Reserve officials have released dovish signals, compounded by weak economic data, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook for gold with limited pullback potential [1] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices trading above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover in progress, while the RSI indicator is in an overbought pullback state, indicating a need to be cautious of potential pullback in gold prices [2] - On the 4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are also narrowing, with gold prices above the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicator is in a state of oversold rebound, indicating a clear demand for bullish reversal, with support at 4100 and resistance at 4200 to be monitored [2] - On the 1-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices near the middle band; the MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI is in an overbought pullback state, suggesting strong upward momentum but caution for potential pullback [2] Future Gold Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the support level of 4000 USD/oz, entering long positions around 4025-4035 USD/oz after stabilization; conservative traders should depend on the support level of 3900 USD/oz, entering long positions around 3925-3935 USD/oz [4] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders should rely on the resistance level of 4250 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4240-4230 USD/oz after facing resistance; conservative traders should depend on the resistance level of 4380 USD/oz, entering short positions around 4375-4365 USD/oz [4]

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：观望 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 核心逻辑：近期黄金市场处于多空因素交织的复杂局面，价格在高位呈现震荡态势。一方面，市场对 美联储降息的预期显著升温，为金价提供了核心支撑；另一方面，俄乌和平谈判取得进展的消息，则 削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。俄乌局势的发展是影响黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a short-term decline, with WTI crude oil falling by 1.9% to $57.80 per barrel and Brent crude oil dropping by 1.74% to $61.626 per barrel, indicating market volatility in response to geopolitical developments [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil decreased by 1.9%, closing at $57.80 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil fell by 1.74%, settling at $61.626 per barrel, with futures extending the decline to 2% at $61.46 per barrel [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Spot gold saw a short-term drop of 0.26% [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate that U.S. officials stated Ukraine agreed to the terms of a peace agreement, with President Trump suggesting November 27 as the deadline for Ukraine to accept U.S. support for the peace plan [6] - The U.S. government is attempting to restart peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, having drafted a "28-point" plan aimed at resolving the conflict, which includes aspects of peace, security guarantees, and future relations [6] - Russian President Putin confirmed discussions regarding the U.S. proposed peace plan took place before the Anchorage meeting, indicating a willingness to show flexibility on the Ukraine issue [7][8] - Putin emphasized the need for substantial discussions on all details of the proposed plan for peace negotiations to proceed [9]

Core Points - The article discusses significant developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices, as well as a surge in U.S. stock index futures [1][2][3] - Reports indicate that U.S. officials claim Ukraine has agreed to the terms of a peace agreement [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - International crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude falling by 1.9% to $57.80 per barrel and Brent crude dropping by 1.74% to $61.626 per barrel [1] - Spot gold prices also saw a decrease, dropping by 0.26% [2] - Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices surged significantly [3] Group 2: Peace Negotiations - U.S. President Trump stated that November 27 is the deadline for Ukraine to accept a U.S.-backed peace plan [5] - U.S. officials have been in discussions with Ukraine regarding a peace plan that could be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine, referred to as the "28-point plan" [5][6] - Russian President Putin indicated that Russia is open to peace negotiations but requires substantial discussions on all details of the proposed plan [7]

新华社华盛顿11月19日电（记者徐剑梅）综合美国媒体19日报道，特朗普政府正在尝试重启俄罗斯与乌 克兰的和平谈判，已秘密起草一项结束俄乌冲突的"28点"新计划，并同俄方展开深度讨论。 ...

Core Insights - The news indicates that a framework agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be reached by the end of the month, with potential discussions occurring as early as this week [1] - The U.S. government has been secretly negotiating with Russia to draft a new plan, which includes 28 points addressing peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, and future relations between the U.S. and Russia [1][6] - The absence of direct Ukrainian participation in the peace plan has raised concerns in the market, leading to declines in European defense stocks [1] Group 1: Negotiation Developments - High-level U.S. officials believe the current situation is favorable for advancing peace talks, especially given the pressures faced by Ukrainian President Zelensky [6] - The 28-point plan includes not only a ceasefire agreement but also provisions for restoring U.S.-Russia relations and addressing Russian security concerns [6] - U.S. military officials are engaging with Ukraine to communicate the peace proposal, indicating an acceleration in the negotiation process [7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the potential framework agreement, European defense stocks experienced significant declines, with Rheinmetall dropping by 4% [1] - Oil prices also fell sharply, with WTI crude oil decreasing by 3% and Brent crude oil by 2.9% [3] - The exclusion of European allies from the peace plan discussions has raised concerns about transatlantic relations and market stability [8]