城镇新增就业1267万人 粮食产量达到1.43万亿斤 新能源汽车年产量超过1600万辆 3月5日，李强总理向十四届全国人大四次会议作政府工作报告，要点如下： 一、2025年工作回顾 国内生产总值增长5% 过去5年 全社会研发经费投入年均增长7%以上 国内生产总值年均增长5.4% 制造业增加值规模连续16年保持全球第一 居民人均可支配收入年均增长5.4% 城镇新增就业累计超过6000万人 二、"十五五"时期主要目标和重大任务 国内生产总值增长保持在合理区间 单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放累计降低17% 数字经济核心产业增加值占国内生产总值比重达到12.5% 劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限提高到11.7年 人均预期寿命提高到80岁 粮食综合生产能力达到1.45万亿斤左右 能源综合生产能力达到58亿吨标准煤 三、2026年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向 经济增长4.5%—5% 城镇新增就业1200万人以上 居民消费价格涨幅2%左右 粮食产量1.4万亿斤左右 拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元 四、2026年部分工作任务 增收： 制定实施城乡居民增收计划，在促进低收入群体增收、增加居民财产性收入、完善薪 酬和社保制度等方面 ...

[Table_Title] 策略研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 近期宏观经济数据跟踪 ——元瞻经纬总量月报（2026 年 2 月） 报告要点： 本期总量跟踪 工业生产及景气度篇：PPI 降幅持续收窄，价格端边际修复趋势明确。2026 年 1 月 PPI 当月同比降幅收窄至-1.4%，连续 6 个月改善，环比连续 4 个月 正增，显示工业品价格底部修复动能增强。从结构看，国际有色金属价格上行 显著抬升上游采选及冶炼价格；同时，全国统一大市场建设与供给侧结构优化 推动水泥、锂电、光伏设备等行业价格持续回升；叠加 AI 投资扩张带动半导 体材料、电子设备等中游价格改善，工业价格体系呈现由上游向中游扩散的特 征。 制造业景气短期回落，但价格信号释放积极变化。1 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，主要受季节性淡季及有效需求不足影响，生产、新订单指数同步下行。 但值得关注的是，PMI 价格指数明显回升，主要原材料购进价格指数与出厂 价格指数分别升至 56.1%和 50.6%，出厂价格指数近 20 个月首次重返临界点 以上。 内需篇：尽管内需有所回落，但 CPI 已在温和回升，有望改善内需不振的现 状 ...

——元瞻经纬总量月报（2026 年 2 月） 报告要点： 本期总量跟踪 工业生产及景气度篇：PPI 降幅持续收窄，价格端边际修复趋势明确。2026 年 1 月 PPI 当月同比降幅收窄至-1.4%，连续 6 个月改善，环比连续 4 个月 正增，显示工业品价格底部修复动能增强。从结构看，国际有色金属价格上行 显著抬升上游采选及冶炼价格；同时，全国统一大市场建设与供给侧结构优化 推动水泥、锂电、光伏设备等行业价格持续回升；叠加 AI 投资扩张带动半导 体材料、电子设备等中游价格改善，工业价格体系呈现由上游向中游扩散的特 征。 制造业景气短期回落，但价格信号释放积极变化。1 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，主要受季节性淡季及有效需求不足影响，生产、新订单指数同步下行。 但值得关注的是，PMI 价格指数明显回升，主要原材料购进价格指数与出厂 价格指数分别升至 56.1%和 50.6%，出厂价格指数近 20 个月首次重返临界点 以上。 [Table_Title] 策略研究 证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 4 日 近期宏观经济数据跟踪 内需篇：尽管内需有所回落，但 CPI 已在温和回升，有望改善内需不振的现 状 ...

Market Performance - On March 2, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.20% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 539.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which escalated with an attack on February 28, has increased geopolitical instability, potentially boosting military procurement in related regions[1] - Despite global tensions, the A-share market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above its 5-day moving average[1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as oil and gas extraction, precious metals, and port shipping performed well amid rising risk aversion, while the technology sector exhibited significant divergence[1] - The top three sectors for net capital inflow on March 2 were communication equipment, refining and trading, and oil service engineering, while the semiconductor, IT services, and software development sectors saw the largest outflows[4] Economic Indicators - China's GDP for 2025 was reported at 140,187.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% growth rate, with final consumption contributing 2.6 percentage points to this growth[7] - A proposal to distribute 500 yuan in universal consumption vouchers could potentially stimulate consumption by nearly 2 trillion yuan[8] Renewable Energy Development - By the end of 2025, China's renewable energy capacity reached 2.34 billion kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for approximately 60% of total installed capacity[12]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 03 月 03 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周一 A 股主要指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.47%，深成指跌 0.2%，创业板指跌 0.49%，北证 50 指数跌 3.99%。 全市场成交额 3.05 万亿元，较上日成交额增加 5403 亿元。全市场超 4200 只个股下跌。板块题材上油气开采及服务、港口航运、贵金属、 军工装备、煤炭开采加工、化学原料、化肥、大豆、CPO 概念股板块 活跃，游戏、传媒、AI 应用、云计算、旅游及酒店、减肥药、零售板 块调整。 【重要新闻】 【2025 年全国统一大市场建设提速 省际贸易额增长明显】国家税务 总局税收大数据分析显示，2025 年全国统一大市场建设纵深推进， 省际贸易销售额同比增长 4.5%，占全国销售额的 41%，较上年同期提 高 0.8 个百分点。全国超八成省份的省际销售额增速实现正增长。同 时，重点区域辐射带动作用显现。2025 年，重点区域之间贸易往来频 繁，京津冀销往长三角、珠三角销往成渝地 ...

[tabl中e_山pa每ge日1点] 评 [table_subject] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 证券研究报告·中山每日点评 资源股保持强势 ——2 月 27 日 A 股市场点评 [中ta山bl证e_券inv研es究t]所 [[分ttaa析bbll师ee__：rree唐ssee晋aarr荣cchh]] 登记编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com 分析师：方鹏飞 登记编号：S0290519010001 邮箱：fangpf@zszq.com 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 表 1 主要指数涨跌幅度 1.市场整体表现 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.39 | 北证 50 | -0.50 | | 深证成指 | -0.06 | 万得全 A | 0.41 | | 沪深 300 | -0.34 | 中证 500 | 1.18 | | 科创 50 | 0.15 | 红利指数 | 1.17 | 资料来源：Wind，中山 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 27, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 0.09%, IH rose 0.44%, IC rose 1.31%, and IM rose 1.06% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 3,767 lots, IH decreased by 345 lots, IC increased by 14,803 lots, and IM increased by 10,243 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 4,518 lots, IH increased by 2,716 lots, IC increased by 8,855 lots, and IM increased by 7,794 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,710.65, down 0.34%. Among its futures, IF2603 closed at 4,713.8, up 0.09%, with a basis of 3.15, trading volume of 77.07 billion, and the number of contracts traded was 54,648, an increase of 1,242. The open interest was 146,645, an increase of 1,168 [1] - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,039.43, up 0.14%. IH2603 closed at 3,045.4, up 0.44%, with a basis of 5.97, trading volume of 25.76 billion, and the number of contracts traded was 28,262, a decrease of 442. The open interest was 59,512, an increase of 697 [1] - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,658.45, up 1.18%. IC2603 closed at 8,645.4, up 1.31%, with a basis of - 13.05, trading volume of 134.94 billion, and the number of contracts traded was 78,564, an increase of 10,313. The open interest was 138,970, an increase of 2,284 [1] - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,560.84, up 0.83%. IM2603 closed at 8,531.4, up 1.06%, with a basis of - 29.44, trading volume of 171.3 billion, and the number of contracts traded was 100,970, an increase of 3,516. The open interest was 177,180, an increase of 1,084 [1] 3.2 Index Futures' Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF2603, long - position increased by 1,190, and short - position increased by 1,229, with a short - position net change of 3,889 [6] - For IH2603, long - position decreased by 132, and short - position decreased by 153, with a long - position net change of 2,444 and a short - position net change of 2,581 [6] - For IC2603, long - position increased by 1,930, and short - position increased by 1,381, with a short - position net change of 5,543 [6] - For IM2603, long - position increased by 197, and short - position increased by 163, with a long - position net change of 3,813 and a short - position net change of 2,401 [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1.68850. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7] 3.4 Important Drivers - On February 28, local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry, eliminate its navy, and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime, and Israeli officials said the strike might last at least a week. On March 1, it was reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed [8] - The Political Bureau held a meeting to discuss the draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan and the government work report. It emphasized implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting high - quality economic development [9] - The People's Bank of China decided to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0 starting from March 2, 2026, aiming to promote the return of foreign exchange policies to neutrality [10] 3.5 Stock Market Performance - In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 4,162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.04%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.41%. The trading volume was 2.51 trillion yuan, compared with 2.56 trillion yuan the previous day [10] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.95% to 26,630.54 points, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.56%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.51%. The market trading volume was HK$288.42 billion, and southbound funds had a net purchase of more than HK$14 billion [10] - The three major US stock indexes all closed down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.05% to 48,977.92 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.43% to 6,878.88 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.92% to 22,668.21 points [10]

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（2.24-2.27） 激活银发经济再出招，央行出手干预升值斜率 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：LPR报价继续持稳，银发经济扩容提质。2月 24日，央行公布 2月 LPR 报价，LPR连续第 9个月保持不变，1年期 LPR为 3.0%，5年期以上 LPR为 3.5%。预计年内降准降息仍有一定空间，但节奏和幅度将保持温和；同日，国 务院部署银发经济和养老服务发展有关工作，政策首次将"释放银发消费需求" 置于突出位置，标志我国正将人口老龄化挑战转化为保障民生、促进消费、升 级产业的历史机遇；25 日，上海市推出稳楼市"沪七条"政策，新政以梯度 松绑、分区施策为特点，在坚守"房住不炒"底线的同时，有助于修复市场预 期；27 日，中共中央召开政治局会议。本次会议是两会前的最后确认环节， 完成了从"十四五"到"十五五"的阶段转换确认，释放出未来五年将更加注 重结构优化与效率提升的明确信号。 海外：人民币汇率持续走强，日本 CPI 跌破政策目标。当地时间 2月 24日， 特朗普发表第 ...

2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 19 | | 铅： 19 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 20 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 25 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 27 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.07%报 112.070 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.05%报 108.395 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 106.005 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.456 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 27 日以固 ...

研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...