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会员金选丨教授公开课:中美关税松绑背后的深层博弈,寻找企业的破局之道
第一财经· 2025-06-16 03:18
地址:北京市朝阳区环球金融中心WFC西塔五层 预 约 席 位 ↓↓↓ 在百年变局的关键转折点,中美关税博弈已成为重塑全球经济秩序的决定性力量。2025 日内瓦 协议签署背后,是大国对产业链主导权、技术标准话语权与发展模式的终极争夺 —— 美国以特 朗普新政下的动态关税体系切割高端制造链,中国用稀土等战略资源反制技术封锁,直接牵动全 球 42% 中间品供应链走向,加剧了全球供应链的不确定性。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院胡捷教授将穿透关税数字表象,系统解构核心命题,这场解析不 仅是政策解码,更是在大国博弈困局中,为企业寻找重塑全球价值链的确定性破局之道 —— 中 国企业正通过出海战略实现供应链重构与本地化运营,在动态关税与技术封锁中开辟新路径。 时间:6月21日(周六)下午 13:30 活动议程 胡捷教授的教学和研究领域包括金融市场与机构、美国宏观经济和金融政策、金融科技(含金融科技 原理、供应链金融、区块链与金融创新、元宇宙、AI与金融)、科创金融、中企国际化等。其主持若 干研究项目,主编上海交通大学中国金融研究院《中国财富管理实务通讯》。 胡捷教授是中国计算机学会(CCF)区块链专委会执行委员,ACCA中国 ...
金发科技海外业务实现快速发展
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-05-21 16:46
Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring, Kingfa Technology has seen significant new opportunities in its export business, as overseas companies are adjusting their supply structures to seek better quality and faster response suppliers [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Kingfa Technology's revenue reached 60.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.23%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.825 billion yuan, a substantial growth of 160.36% [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company continued its growth momentum, achieving revenue of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, and a net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, up 138.20% [1]. Business Segments - The sales volume of special engineering plastics, a key segment, showed strong growth, reaching 0.63 million tons in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 91% [1]. - Kingfa Technology is focusing on high-end chemical new materials, particularly in emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy [1]. Technological Advancements - The company plans to tackle key industrialization technologies for new materials such as long-chain polyamide and ultra-high heat-resistant LCP, aiming to reduce reliance on imports [2]. - Kingfa Technology has maintained R&D expenditures exceeding 1 billion yuan for seven consecutive years, with an average annual R&D investment ratio of around 4% of revenue [2]. Capacity Expansion - The current production capacity for LCP is 6,000 tons per year, with plans to rapidly increase by an additional 15,000 tons per year, expected to be released gradually by June 2025 [2]. - A project for producing 0.8 million tons of long-chain polyamide has also been initiated, with production planned to start in March 2026 [2]. Market Opportunities - Kingfa Technology's overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, with a total product sales volume of 233,500 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.51% [2]. - The changing global supply chain dynamics have created opportunities for Kingfa Technology to fill supply gaps as overseas manufacturers adjust their supply chains [3].
特朗普失算了,美商家疯抢中国产品,美国大豆在华市场却彻底失宠
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 02:44
Core Insights - The trade conflict between the US and China has led to a significant decline in the market share of US soybeans in China, dropping from 40% to 18% as Chinese buyers turn to Brazilian soybeans [1][3] - In 2024, China is expected to import 105 million tons of soybeans, with 74.65 million tons from Brazil and only 22.13 million tons from the US, indicating a drastic shift in sourcing [3][4] - The US soybean farmers are facing severe financial distress, with rising production costs and a lack of demand, leading to bankruptcy filings among farms [4][6] Industry Dynamics - Brazil has strategically invested in infrastructure to enhance soybean production and reduce transportation costs, making Brazilian soybeans more competitive in the Chinese market [6][10] - The introduction of low-protein feed alternatives in China has reduced the demand for soybeans by 8%, further exacerbating the oversupply situation for US soybeans [3][10] - The US retail sector is experiencing a 35% increase in inventory, with prices of Chinese goods rising by 12%, reflecting the broader economic impact of the trade tensions [8][10] Market Reactions - The ongoing trade war has led to a significant drop in soybean futures prices in the US, highlighting the disconnect between political rhetoric and market realities [11] - The situation illustrates the vulnerability of the US agricultural sector to international market shifts and the importance of adapting to changing supply chains [11]
创源股份(300703) - 2025年5月16日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-05-16 08:02
Group 1: Business Impact and Performance - The company's export business covers three main areas: cultural education and leisure, home living, and sports fitness, with a focus on B-end markets and direct C-end consumer engagement in sports fitness [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth primarily driven by the cultural education and sports fitness sectors, with a nearly 100% revenue increase from the subsidiary Ruitfei's cross-border e-commerce business [3] - The gross margin of the cultural education and leisure sector has risen, contributing to overall rapid growth [3] Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - As of 2024, the revenue from the Vietnam company was 334 million yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of the cultural education and leisure sector [3] - The top five customers accounted for 21.11% of the company's annual sales in 2024 [3] - The company plans to actively restructure its global supply chain beyond Vietnam [3] Group 3: Strategic Development and Support - The cultural tourism exhibition group, as a major shareholder, provides multi-faceted resources and support for the company's growth, including talent, IP, and channel assistance [3] - The company aims to build a diversified IP matrix covering various themes and will leverage its product research institute for product development based on brand characteristics and market demands [3] - In 2025, the company plans to actively expand its domestic market to achieve market share growth [3]
5家上市企业“争宠”:境外收入是大头,天元净利润连续下滑
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-05-14 03:49
Core Insights - The domestic pet industry in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan, with major listed companies in the pet food sector showing positive performance driven by the increasing number of pet-owning households and the expansion of the pet economy [2][11] - Several leading companies achieved historic performance milestones in 2024, including Guobao Pet, which reported a record net profit, and Zhongchong Co., which saw both revenue and profit reach new highs since its listing [2][5] - Despite rapid growth, the domestic pet industry is still in its developmental stage compared to international markets, leading companies to implement a "dual circulation" strategy to strengthen brand building and expand domestic market channels [2][11] Company Performance - Five listed pet food companies, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Tianyuan Pet, Petty Co., and Lusi Co., showed overall revenue growth, but significant disparities in profitability were noted [3][5] - Guobao Pet led the revenue rankings with 5.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, while Zhongchong Co. followed with 4.464 billion yuan, up 19.15% [4][5] - Guobao Pet also topped the net profit chart with 642 million yuan, significantly higher than Zhongchong Co.'s 394 million yuan, indicating a narrowing profit gap between the two leading companies [5][10] Profitability Trends - Tianyuan Pet experienced a 54.16% decline in net profit to 46 million yuan, marking it as the only company with a profit decrease among the five [10][11] - Petty Co. reported an extraordinary net profit growth of 1742.81%, but this was largely due to recovering from previous losses, highlighting the impact of prior financial performance on current results [6][10] - Lusi Co. maintained a steady growth trajectory, recording revenue and profit increases, although its growth rates were lower than those of its competitors [8][10] International Market Dependency - The overseas market remains a critical revenue source for most domestic pet companies, with many reporting a decline in the proportion of overseas revenue but still relying heavily on it for profitability [11][12] - Petty Co. had the highest overseas revenue proportion at 82.63%, while Zhongchong Co. also showed significant reliance with 68.33% of its revenue coming from international markets [12][13] - Companies are increasingly aware of the risks associated with international trade and are focusing on building domestic brands and expanding local market presence to mitigate these risks [16][23] Brand Development and Competition - The emphasis on proprietary brands is growing, with Guobao Pet reporting that 67.59% of its revenue came from its own brand products, reflecting a shift towards brand competition in the pet food market [17][20] - Zhongchong Co. has also increased its investment in research and development, indicating a commitment to enhancing its proprietary brand offerings [21][22] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands gaining market share and positioning themselves for future growth amid a rapidly expanding market [20][23]
5月13日A股走势分析及策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 00:53
上证指数站稳5日线,MACD红柱放大,短期趋势确实强。但30分钟级别顶背离已经出现三次,就像开车遇到急转弯,得踩踩刹车。历史经验告诉我们,快 速突破后如果量能跟不上,5%-8%的回撤很正常。所以咱们得盯紧量能——今天要是早盘半小时成交量破3000亿,指数冲3400点才有戏;要是缩量冲高,该 减仓就得减。 第三,聪明钱在悄悄换赛道 老铁们好,这里是帮主郑重每天的盘前策略时间。老规矩,咱们不整虚的,直接上干货,拆解这波行情里的机会和门道。 先说个大实话:昨天A股这根放量长阳,成交额1.3万亿,北向资金狂买118亿,确实够劲爆!但别急着喊牛市,咱们得看清楚这波行情的底层逻辑。 军工板块集体爆发不是偶然,成飞概念股涨停潮背后,是政策对高端制造的持续加码。科技这边更热闹,人形机器人、AI算力、低空经济这些赛道全线开 花,消费电子更是被中美关税松绑的消息点燃。但别光看热闹,得看资金往哪流——北向资金昨天118亿真金白银砸向科技成长股,说明外资对中国产业升 级的信心回来了。 第二,技术面强但别贪杯 2. 死磕主线:科技成长(AI算力、机器人)、新能源(固态电池)、消费电子(关税松绑受益股)这三个方向,重点看有技术突破的龙头 ...
关税调整下的半导体行业:短期红利与长期博弈——日内瓦会谈后的产业链重构与技术竞合
是说芯语· 2025-05-12 10:23
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent tariff adjustments between the US and China, highlighting a temporary compromise in the ongoing tech rivalry, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which presents both short-term benefits and long-term challenges for the industry [2][19]. Policy Framework and Execution Mechanism - The US has reduced tariffs on semiconductor-related imports from a maximum of 145% to 30%, while China has lowered its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%, with a 90-day negotiation buffer until August 12, 2025 [2]. - Sensitive areas like semiconductor equipment and AI chips remain excluded from tariff reductions, and the US continues to enforce technology restrictions through an "entity list" [2][7]. Industry Chain Cost Restructuring and Market Segmentation Short-term Cost Improvement and Supply Chain Recovery - Equipment procurement costs have decreased by approximately 18%-22% for companies like SMIC, facilitating expansion plans for advanced processes [4]. - The utilization rate for automotive chips at SMIC's Tianjin facility has increased from 65% to 82% due to reduced costs for mature process chips [5]. - US companies like Qualcomm and Intel are expected to see a 12%-15% increase in sales in China by the second half of 2025, potentially impacting domestic competitors [6]. Long-term Competition and Structural Challenges - Despite tariff reductions, technology access remains restricted, with delays in SMIC's expansion due to equipment export limitations [7]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials are gaining market share, with the bidding rate for domestic 28nm etching machines increasing from 22% to 37% [9]. - The global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing regional restructuring, with increased compliance costs for companies adapting to new trade rules [10]. Differentiated Impact and Strategic Choices in Sub-sectors Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The cost of exporting lithography and etching machines to China has decreased, but key technologies like EUV lithography remain restricted [11]. - Domestic companies are focusing on technological breakthroughs to reduce costs in semiconductor materials, with current profit margins significantly lower than international competitors [11]. Chip Design and Manufacturing - The import cost of high-end AI chips has decreased by 24%, but US policies may restrict sales to China [12]. - SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor are enhancing their competitiveness in automotive chips, but face pricing pressures from international competitors [12]. Packaging and Testing - SMIC's advancements in advanced packaging technologies may attract more AI chip orders, but competition from US subsidies for TSMC could divert high-end demand [13]. Corporate Response Strategies and Market Outlook Short-term Strategies - Companies are diversifying their supply chains, with SMIC shifting 20% of its equipment procurement to Japan and Europe [14]. - Inventory management strategies are being implemented to mitigate risks from fluctuating tariff policies [15]. Long-term Strategies - Investments in domestic technology are being prioritized, with significant funding directed towards local semiconductor manufacturers [16]. - Companies like Huawei are expanding their market presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with overseas revenue expected to rise [16]. Future Trends - The tariff adjustments represent a temporary easing in US-China tech tensions, but core issues like technology restrictions and industrial subsidies remain unresolved [19]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience short-term cost improvements alongside long-term competitive pressures, with key negotiations in the next 90 days being critical for future stability [19].
江苏一千四百多家外贸企业参展广交会以变应变,促成交拓市场优服务
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-05-10 23:28
Group 1 - Jiangsu foreign trade enterprises are diversifying their market presence and focusing on product development to enhance competitiveness amid uncertainties in the international trade environment [1][2] - At the 137th Canton Fair, 1,419 foreign trade companies from Jiangsu participated, showcasing various industries such as home textiles, stationery, health and leisure, fashion, toys, and maternity products [1][2] - Companies are increasingly targeting emerging markets, with significant interest from buyers in regions like the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America [2][3] Group 2 - Jiangsu enterprises are emphasizing technological innovation, with the introduction of advanced products like service robots and smart devices at the Canton Fair [4][5] - Companies like Jiangsu Jinpeng Group are focusing on technical upgrades and have secured substantial orders, indicating a strong market response to their innovative offerings [4][6] - The fair has facilitated deeper engagement with international buyers, leading to significant order placements and potential collaborations [4][6] Group 3 - Jiangsu enterprises are leveraging digital trade tools such as cross-border e-commerce and live streaming to navigate global supply chain challenges [6] - The Jiangsu delegation adopted a "dual-line operation" strategy at the fair, combining offline promotional events with online digital marketing initiatives [6] - Collaborative efforts, such as the establishment of the "Nanjing Quality Products Online Zone," have resulted in substantial cooperation agreements, with a total signing amount reaching $50 million [6]
江苏1419家企业广交会揽单,创新打法破局全球市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 02:42
Core Insights - The article discusses how Jiangsu foreign trade enterprises are adapting to the challenges posed by increased tariffs and market uncertainties, focusing on strategies to capture new opportunities while mitigating risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expansion Strategies - Jiangsu foreign trade enterprises are diversifying their market focus beyond the U.S., targeting emerging markets as new growth areas, with a notable presence at the Canton Fair [2][4]. - Companies like Jiangsu Su Bian Electric Equipment Co. have successfully engaged with international buyers, securing preliminary orders worth over $5 million for their products [2]. - The shift in customer demographics from large wholesalers to smaller trade companies indicates a demand for high-cost performance products in emerging markets [2][4]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Development - Companies are investing in product development to enhance their offerings, with some allocating 5% to 10% of their revenue to R&D, leading to unique and high-quality products that attract international clients [6][8]. - The introduction of innovative products, such as smart robots and advanced electric vehicles, has garnered significant interest from international buyers, resulting in substantial orders during the Canton Fair [7][8]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Supply Chain Optimization - Jiangsu enterprises are leveraging digital tools like cross-border e-commerce and live streaming to navigate tariff challenges and streamline trade processes [9][11]. - The establishment of digital platforms and services, such as the "Nanjing Quality Products Online Zone," aims to enhance trade efficiency and facilitate international buyer-supplier connections [11][12]. - The "商链" initiative is expected to improve supply-demand matching efficiency by 60% and reduce procurement decision-making time by 40% [11]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts and Networking - The Jiangsu delegation at the Canton Fair employed a "dual-line operation" strategy, combining physical and digital marketing efforts to expand their international network [12]. - The fair facilitated direct interactions between international buyers and Jiangsu suppliers, leading to significant collaboration opportunities and contract signings [11][12].
连续上涨后跨境支付概念股回调,2000万亿元市场将迎变局
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 13:53
在这场2000万亿元市场的竞赛中,合规是入场券,技术是加速器,而全球化视野是最终胜出的密码。 跨境支付概念近期坐上"过山车"。Wind数据显示,跨境支付指数自4月8日~4月22日迅速上涨,从1269 点上涨至1500点上方,区间涨幅超15%。4月24日开始至今,又回调至1445点附近。 热门概念股表现也震荡。以拉卡拉(300773.SZ)为例,该股4月8日股价最低下挫至13.95元/股,随后震 荡上行,4月22日一度触及29.99元/股高点。截至4月30日收盘,拉卡拉报收21.21元/股。此外,新晨科 技(300542.SZ)、高伟达(300465.SZ)、信雅达(600571.SH)、海联金汇(002537.SZ)等多只"跨 境支付概念股"也高度活跃。 跨境支付指数14天暴涨超15%又迅速回调背后,一场关税冲击下的跨境支付行业变局正在上演。短期来 看,跨境支付行业面临关税政策带来的压力——合规成本增加、短期内跨境支付笔数和金额可能减少。 中长期来看,人民币国际化进程加速与全球供应链重构或为跨境支付企业打开新的增长空间,行业洗牌 已悄然开启。 跨境支付指数大幅波动 跨境支付板块的行情波动绝非偶然,其背后是政策 ...