经合组织发布的报告预计，今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告 指出，三方面因素共同支撑全球需求。一是扩张性宏观政策，二是市场对新技术的积极预期，三是人工 智能带动贸易和投资增长。但报告同时发出警告，认为全球经济风险正在累积。具体包括：贸易保护主 义升级可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，人工智能领域资产高估（值）可能突然回调，各国财政脆弱性 可能阻碍经济增长。 报告还提及美国经济面临的风险，如需求承压、通胀顽固、就业市场疲软及巨额赤字。数据显示， 美国涉及加征关税的进口商品总值较非征税进口商品明显下降，说明关税正抑制美国国内需求，预计贸 易量将继续承压。由于就业市场降温、关税抬高消费价格，美国家庭消费增长将继续放缓，通胀可能更 加持久，从而减少降息空间。报告预测，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至今年的2.0%，明年进一 步放缓至1.7%。 央视网消息：经济合作与发展组织2日发布最新经济展望报告。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出 预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告还认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正逐步显现，并传导至支出、企业成本以及消费价格。经 合组 ...

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report predicts a "sluggish" global economic activity in 2024, influenced by trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.6% this year, maintaining this rate until 2026, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the pre-pandemic average [1][3] Economic Risks - The report highlights risks in the economic and financial markets, particularly due to unpredictable tariff policies under the Trump administration [3] - Developing economies remain vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and punitive tariffs imposed by the US on their exports [3] Global Economic Disparities - There is a concerning gap among "Global South" economies, which account for over 40% of global GDP, half of foreign direct investment flows, and approximately 45% of goods trade, yet remain marginalized in global equity and bond markets [3] Trade and Financial Interdependence - Approximately 72% of global trade is governed by WTO's most-favored-nation rules, while 90% of international trade relies on a concentrated global financial system [3][4] - The interdependence in the short term helps avoid disruptions and signals policy adjustments, as seen in the market reactions following Trump's tariff announcements [4] Currency Dynamics - The report discusses the imbalance between the rules-based global trade matrix and the centralized global financial system, emphasizing the dominance of the US dollar [5] - Despite a decline in the dollar's share of international reserves, no suitable challenger has emerged to replace it, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization without a viable alternative currency [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global economic growth is expected to slow down to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024, highlighting the significant impact of financial markets on global trade [1] - The report emphasizes that over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, indicating a deep dependence on financial channels that tightly connect trade and the global financial environment [1] - Changes in interest rates in major financial centers or fluctuations in investor sentiment can significantly affect global trade volumes, underscoring the interconnectedness of finance and trade [1] Group 2 - Developing economies face increasing pressures due to limited roles in global financial markets, leading to higher financing costs and vulnerability to capital flow volatility [2] - The report points out that geopolitical dynamics and policy shifts are reshaping globalization, necessitating adjustments in the financial system to better serve the needs of the real economy [2] - Climate-related financial risks are becoming more pronounced, further constraining the fiscal and investment space required for sustaining growth in developing economies [2]

责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 尽管面临关税阻力，经合组织（OECD）表示AI投资和政策支持使经济增长保持韧性，并上调了对美国 和欧元区2025年的预测。 尽管面临关税阻力，经合组织（OECD）表示AI投资和政策支持使经济增长保持韧性，并上调了对美国 和欧元区2025年的预测。 ...

Core Insights - The impact of higher U.S. taxes on imports is less severe than previously anticipated, but it is expected to continue affecting the market through next year and beyond [1] Group 1 - The anticipated effects of increased import taxes are lighter than fears suggested, indicating a more manageable adjustment for companies [1] - The persistence of these tax impacts suggests that companies will need to adapt their strategies to mitigate ongoing costs associated with imports [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total net revenues were reported at $40.4 million, with a net loss attributable to controlling shareholders of $0.7 million, equating to a loss of $0.24 per share. Adjusted net loss was $0.6 million or $0.23 per share. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $4.1 million [3][4][21] - For the first nine months of 2025, total net revenues were $34.9 million, representing a 25% decrease from $46.6 million in the same period of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for this period was $5 million, down from $7.6 million in 2024 [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company operated an average of 12 vessels in Q3 2025, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $13,232 per day, compared to 13 vessels earning $13,105 per day in Q3 2024. The commercial utilization rate was 100% [25][26] - Daily cash flow break-even level for Q3 2025 was $12,482 per vessel, down from $15,145 per vessel in Q3 2024 [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Panama export rates increased from approximately $14,500 per day to $14,950 per day by the end of Q3 2025, with spot rates for Panamax vessels rising to around $15,500 per day as of November 7 [7][8] - The Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Panamax Index recorded year-over-year increases of approximately 6% and 14%, respectively, indicating a better market compared to the previous year [8][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue executing share repurchases under its $10 million plan, which has been extended for an additional year, while also modernizing its fleet in preparation for future market conditions [4][18] - The company is focusing on securing longer-term coverage when rates reach between $15,000 and $17,000 per day [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the overall market remains uncertain due to geopolitical developments, but there are signs of recovery in the dry bulk sector, supported by strong demand for minor bulks and robust grain trade flows [15][16] - The IMF projects global growth to ease slightly, with persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty impacting investment and trade activity [9][10] Other Important Information - The company has two Ultramax vessels under construction, scheduled for delivery in 2027, which will expand the fleet to 13 vessels with a total carrying capacity of just under 900,000 deadweight tons [6] - As of September 30, 2025, the company's debt stood at $97.9 million, with a repayment schedule indicating $13.1 million in repayments for 2025 [28][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the threshold for shifting from short-term index-linked exposure to securing longer-term coverage? - Management indicated that they would consider longer-term coverage if rates reach around $15,000 to $17,000 [32] Question: What is the timeline for the extra RENI vessel? - The extra RENI was fixed for a trip via South America and back to the Far East, expected to take about 90-100 days at a rate of approximately $16,500 per day [33] Question: What are the plans for improving near-term liquidity? - Management highlighted improved liquidity due to the sale of the Irini vessel and financing arrangements for new buildings, projecting a liquidity increase of over $15 million by year-end [35] Question: Can you clarify the new build financing and incremental debt? - Management confirmed that approximately $53 million in debt would be drawn to finance the two new buildings by their delivery in 2027 [37] Question: What is the outlook for rates on specific vessels? - Management explained that rates can vary significantly based on the type of voyage, with higher rates expected for voyages from the Atlantic to the Far East [38]

Core Insights - The global economy is expected to enter a more moderate and clearer growth phase by 2026, with the U.S. economy projected to grow steadily, Eurozone domestic demand likely to recover, and Japan's performance anticipated to be lukewarm [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation "comfort zones" are becoming visible in major economies, with U.S. inflation expected to slightly cool after minor fluctuations, Eurozone likely to maintain a stable new normal, and Japan's apparent inflation rate expected to decline [1] - The interest rate differentials among the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan central banks may converge next year, with the new Federal Reserve chair expected to lead the future rate cut path, projecting a total cut of 50 basis points for the year [1] Market Predictions - The outlook for U.S. stocks in the coming year is positive, while a cautious stance is advised for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen after some fluctuations next year, with potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals highlighted [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the complexity of the external economic landscape in 2026, focusing on three main issues: persistent geopolitical conflicts, political conservatism in major economies leading to trade frictions, and the complexities of monetary policy [3][4]. Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, present structural pressures that may lead to increased volatility in the global economy [3]. - Key geopolitical risk points include the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, which contribute to a non-linear economic outlook [3]. Political Conservatism and Trade Frictions - The rise of conservative governments in major economies like the U.S. and Japan is shifting policies towards economic security and nationalism, resulting in ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3][4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deepening, moving towards a "China + N" model, which may impact trade dynamics significantly [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2025 and 1-2 cuts in 2026, which may lower financing costs but also face constraints from structural inflation driven by geopolitical and trade issues [3][4]. Global Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3%, with emerging markets being the primary growth drivers due to "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" investments [4]. - Developed economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with the U.S. economy supported by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while Japan and the EU maintain stable growth [4]. Impact on China - Specific external variables, particularly U.S. policies, are expected to impact China's trade and technology sectors, with tariffs likely to remain at a normalized level of around 30% [4][5]. - China's exports may face disruptions from both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with potential impacts on overall export scale estimated at 3.0% under moderate scenarios and up to 10.6% in extreme cases [5]. Opportunities and Challenges for China - External pressures may accelerate China's progress towards technological self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [5]. - However, challenges include normalized tariffs, increased trade barriers, and the risk of de-Chinaization in global supply chains, alongside the pressures of technological restrictions [5].

Domestic Policy News - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of women's development at the Global Women's Summit, highlighting women's roles as creators and transmitters of civilization [9] - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, focused on reducing logistics costs and promoting green trade during a recent meeting, aiming to enhance the modern logistics system [10][11] - The Ministry of Finance announced a limit of 500 billion yuan for local government debt to support the resolution of existing debts and promote effective investment [21] International Policy News - The IMF projected a 3.2% growth for the global economy in 2025, while noting signs of a significant slowdown in the US economy [16][20] - The recent IMF and World Bank meetings highlighted concerns over rising trade tensions and their potential impact on global economic stability [19] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a slight decline, with the ChiNext and CSI 500 indices dropping over 5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.34% [22] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the Corporate Governance Code to enhance the governance standards of listed companies, effective January 1, 2026 [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 69.79 billion yuan in the open market, maintaining liquidity above 1.4% [40] - The Ministry of Finance's announcement to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits aims to support local fiscal stability and effective investment [42] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals declined, while precious metals saw a rebound; the overall commodity market showed mixed trends post-holiday [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction investments in key industries [11] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index weakened to 98.56, while the Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.13, reflecting a 0.29% weekly increase [4] - The central bank emphasized the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US [4]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to rise from 3% to 3.2% by 2025 [1] - There are increasing signs that the negative impacts of protectionist measures are becoming evident, with high uncertainty in trade policies expected to persist through 2025 and 2026 [1] - The IMF forecasts Iran's economic growth rate to reach 0.6% in 2025, with an inflation rate of 42.4% and an unemployment rate of 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The World Bank recently estimated Iran's economic growth rate for this year to be -1.7% [1]