新华社瑞士达沃斯1月23日电 综述｜从达沃斯看全球经济增长新动能 新华社记者康逸 张兆卿 世界经济论坛年会19日至23日在瑞士达沃斯举行。在全球经济复苏乏力、不确定性持续上升背景下，与 会嘉宾普遍认为，世界经济并非缺乏增长动能，关键在于能否坚持创新驱动、绿色转型和开放合作的正 确方向。 当前，世界经济正站在新旧动能转换的关键节点，人工智能、绿色转型、数字经济等新技术加速演进或 将成为今后一段时间最具潜力的增长引擎。 "人工智能是重要的变革力量。"国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃指出，人工智能在农业、医疗、教 育、交通等多个领域正推动提升生产率，而当下全球增长乏力的关键原因之一正是生产率长期低迷。 不少论坛嘉宾还密切关注绿色转型，并指出，绿色发展正转变为新的增长机遇，特别是新能源、低碳和 绿色金融被视为全球经济增长中长期重要抓手。 美国前副总统戈尔在论坛中提到，在可再生经济领域每投入1美元，创造的就业机会是传统经济领域的 三倍。他特别提到，去年中国向世界出口的绿色技术按美元价值计算比美国向世界出口的化石燃料总额 高出50%。 另外，不少嘉宾提出，新兴市场和发展中国家是全球经济增长的重要潜力所在。世界经济论坛议程 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined slightly after major indices posted gains for two consecutive days [1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all showed minor declines in premarket trading [4] Economic Data - U.S. Final GDP for Q3 was reported at 4.4%, exceeding estimates of 4.3% [2] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.23%, while the two-year bond yield was at 3.60% [3] - Market expectations indicate a 95% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January [3] Stocks in Focus - **Capital One Financial Corp.**: Shares fell 3.31% in pre-market trading after Q4 results missed analyst estimates [6] - **Revelation Biosciences Inc.**: Stock surged 38.11% after announcing an agreement with the FDA for its drug Gemini [6] - **Intel Corp.**: Shares dropped over 12% due to a weak Q1 outlook that fell short of expectations [6] - **CSX Corp.**: Stock rose 2.99% despite missing consensus estimates on both revenue and earnings [6] Sector Performance - Energy, materials, consumer discretionary, and health care sectors led gains in the S&P 500 on Thursday [7] Analyst Insights - Bank of America's fund manager survey indicates institutional investors are the most bullish since 2021, with 38% expecting stronger global growth [9] - The survey included 196 participants managing $575 billion in assets, showing a significant increase in equity allocations [9] - BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.4, indicating high optimism in the market [10] Commodities and Crypto - Crude oil futures increased by 1.03% to approximately $59.97 per barrel [11] - Gold Spot price rose by 0.19% to around $4,918.76 per ounce [11] - Bitcoin traded 0.40% lower at $89,258.41 per coin [11]

Group 1 - The continuous growth of China's economy indicates that even with a more moderate growth rate, its share in almost all global economic sectors will increase [1][8] - By 2026, China's economic growth target is likely to be set around "5%", which may represent a further slowdown compared to 2025, influenced by a decline in export demand [1][3] - The shift in focus from "GDP supremacy" to self-innovation, national security, and sustainable high-quality development reflects a strategic change in policy priorities [3] Group 2 - China's economic scale has expanded fourfold since 2008, making its contribution to global economic growth comparable to the combined contributions of India and the United States [3] - China's unique advantages include its unparalleled manufacturing base and complete supply chain network, which were highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic [8][10] - The trend of "recreating a China" abroad suggests that despite its own growth slowdown, China will continue to generate significant value through deepening relationships with developing regions [10]

近期多家国际经济机构发布报告显示，全球经济在贸易紧张与政策不确定性的复杂环境中展现出超出预 期的韧性，但保护主义升级、地缘政治紧张等因素仍构成显著下行压力。 全球经济复苏还面临发展不均衡的挑战。世行首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔表示，2025年全球人均GDP 较疫情前增长10%，但约四分之一的发展中经济体人均收入仍低于2019年水平，高低收入经济体生活水 平两极分化加剧。未来10年发展中经济体将有12亿年轻人步入劳动年龄，就业压力突出，若增长水平不 足，将难以有效减少极端贫困。 以人工智能为代表的技术革命正成为新增长动能，同时也存在不确定性。世行认为人工智能将显著提升 全球全要素生产率，IMF预测2025至2030年人工智能每年将推动全球经济增长约0.5%。但彼得森国际经 济研究所指出，人工智能利好的兑现仍存在不确定性，需加强国际合作推动技术红利转化。 针对当前挑战，世行和IMF呼吁各国政府调整政策，加大对科技和教育的投资，共促全球经济可持续发 展。联合国也呼吁各国加强全球协调与集体行动，重申对开放、基于规则的多边贸易体系的承诺，破解 多重紧张局势，助力发展中经济体摆脱困境。 中国在全球经济中的角色受到广泛关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased due to the temporary shutdown of oil fields in Kazakhstan and stronger expectations for global economic growth potentially driving fuel demand [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $0.98, a 1.53% increase, closing at $64.92 per barrel [3][8]. - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contracts increased by $0.90, a 1.51% rise, closing at $60.34 per barrel [3][8]. Group 2: Supply Disruptions - Chevron-led Kazakh oil producers announced a temporary halt in production at the Tengiz and Korolev oil fields due to issues with the power distribution system [3][8]. - The Tengiz oil field may remain offline for an additional 7 to 10 days, which will reduce crude oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium [4][9]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Stronger-than-expected GDP data from China for the fourth quarter supported the oil market, indicating resilience from the world's largest oil importer [10]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for the year, contributing to rising oil prices [10]. - A weaker dollar provided additional support for oil prices, as a depreciated dollar makes oil cheaper for buyers [10]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns - Concerns over renewed trade tensions escalated after President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from several European countries if an agreement regarding Greenland is not reached [2][10]. - The potential tariffs could negatively impact oil prices by slowing global economic growth and reducing oil demand [10].

Group 1 - The World Bank predicts that Croatia's economy will grow by 2.9% in 2026, which is on par with Bulgaria, but slightly down from 3.1% in 2025 [1] - Croatia and Bulgaria have been reclassified as developed economies by the World Bank [1] - The growth rate for Croatia is expected to further slow to 2.7% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The global economy is anticipated to experience its weakest growth decade since the 1960s, influenced by trade tensions and regulatory uncertainties from 2020 to 2030 [1] - Despite these global challenges, Croatia's growth rate is expected to outperform neighboring countries like Russia, which is projected to grow only 0.8% [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward movement, but limited operability in the market [1] Group 2: Core Views - Today, gold and silver reached new all - time highs. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Iran - related trading countries and European countries related to Greenland, along with the European response of counter - measures, has increased global uncertainties and risks. The challenge to the global order by Trump has brought concerns to the fragile economic outlook, leading funds to flow into the gold market and maintaining the upward trend of precious metals [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information - **Greenland Issue**: Germany's finance minister will strongly respond to US tariffs; France and Germany agree to take tough actions against US tariff threats related to Greenland; EU leaders will hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday; Danish officials will miss the Davos Forum due to the escalation of the Greenland dispute; Greenland's prime minister says the US tariff threats won't change their stance [2] - **IMF Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow by 3.3% in 2026, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the October forecast last year, and 3.2% in 2027, the same as the October forecast last year [2] - **Fed News**: According to AP, Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing regarding Fed Governor Cook [2]

Group 1 - Deloitte's CEO in China, Liu Minghua, highlighted that China has made significant progress in technological innovation and open cooperation, becoming a "new engine" for global economic growth and a "stabilizing anchor" for the world economy [1][3] - Liu noted that the global economy faces multiple risks and challenges, including weakening long-term growth momentum, geopolitical conflicts, trade friction, and the uncertain long-term returns of artificial intelligence investments [1] - The World Trade Organization's report indicates that policy uncertainty is a core indicator of the deteriorating global trade environment, with U.S. tariffs being a key factor in rising uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Liu emphasized that achieving a 5% growth rate for China's economy in 2025 is commendable given the global economic slowdown, attributing this to China's solid fundamentals, including a large market, complete industrial system, and abundant human resources [1][2] - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on upgrading the modern industrial system through innovation-driven growth and sustainable consumption as a key driver for economic growth [2] - China has entered the top ten in the Global Innovation Index for the first time, with 24 global top innovation clusters, indicating a deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [3]

2026.01. 20 当地时间1月19日，在国际货币基金组织（IMF）《世界经济展望》（WEO）更新报告发布会上，IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙（Pierre- Olivier Gourinchas）回答第一财经记者提问表示，2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）5.0%的增速与IMF在最新报告中的预测一致，较2025年10月IMF 的预测上调0.2个百分点。 古兰沙表示，IMF上调中国经济增长预期主要得到两大因素支撑。"首先，中国在过去一段时间实施的一系列稳增长政策对经济活动产生了显著的支撑作 用，且这些政策效应预计将延续至2026年。其次是贸易冲击的影响逐渐消退。这也是我们上调2026年增速预期的原因。"古兰沙补充道。 IMF预计，2026年中国经济增速将保持在4.5%，较前值预测上调0.3个百分点。 与此同时，古兰沙表示对中国经济增长结构平衡的持续关注。他表示，从最新的经济数据来看，出口对经济增长的支撑作用较强，国内需求和私人消费 的潜力仍有待进一步释放。目前中国物价水平整体运行在低位，反映出国内有效需求相对于生产能力仍有潜力。 古兰沙说，中国着力稳定房地产市场发展，并优化产业政策与资源配置 ...

1月19日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布《世界经济展望报告》更新内容，预计2026年世界经济将增长 3.3%，较去年10月预测值上调0.2个百分点；2027年将增长3.2%，与去年10月预测值持平。此前，世界 银行(以下简称"世行")发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2026年全球经济增长预期上调至2.6%， 较2025年6月预测值提高0.2个百分点。 世行报告认为，关税冲击、保护主义升级、地缘政治紧张、财政脆弱性加剧等因素仍对全球经济构成下 行压力，但以人工智能为代表的技术革命加速渗透实体经济，叠加企业聚焦科技创新与绿色转型的投资 导向，正培育形成经济新动能，为全球经济新一轮增长周期积累力量。世行和IMF呼吁各国政府调整政 策，加大对科技和教育的投资，共促全球经济可持续发展。 多重因素促进经济稳步复苏 世行报告认为，世界经济在贸易逆风加剧的复杂环境下展现出超出预期的韧性，2025年增速达2.7%， 好于此前市场预期。其中，发达经济体增长1.7%，新兴市场和发展中经济体以4.2%的增速成为全球增 长的重要引擎。这一态势主要源于贸易品库存合理累积、人工智能相关投资扩大及全球供应链主动优化 调整。世行预测，未 ...