Group 1: Core Argument - The article discusses the recent developments in Trump's tariff war, highlighting his decision to suspend tariffs for 90 days on countries that do not retaliate, while maintaining a 10% base tariff, affecting approximately 75 countries [1] - It suggests that the tariff war has primarily targeted China, which is seen as the biggest victim, while other countries have managed to avoid the brunt of the tariffs [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of the Tariff War - The article argues that the root cause of the tariff war is not about making America great again, but rather a response to the economic difficulties faced by the U.S. [3] - It references the historical context of U.S.-China relations, indicating that the U.S. has viewed China as a primary competitor since the 2008 financial crisis [5][7] Group 3: Global Reactions and Implications - The article posits that many countries are pleased with the U.S.-China conflict, as it allows them to benefit economically while China suffers [7][10] - It emphasizes that the ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, complicate the U.S.'s position and weaken its alliances, particularly with Europe [12][13] Group 4: Conclusion on the Tariff War's Effectiveness - The article concludes that Trump's tariff war has ultimately failed, as evidenced by the lack of significant gains for the U.S. and the successful counteractions by China [17][19] - It suggests that the U.S. is caught in a "deadlock" with multiple adversaries, indicating a challenging future for American foreign policy [15]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States have led to significant shifts in trade patterns, particularly in the oil sector, with China halting imports of U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the lowest U.S. crude oil export levels since 2020 [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, initiated by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade deficits and intellectual property concerns [1][3]. - China responded with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on U.S. products, significantly impacting U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3]. - The trade conflict escalated with the U.S. targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, leading to further tariffs on $1.2 trillion and $1.8 trillion worth of Chinese goods [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has increased from $950.2 billion in 2018 to $1,211.75 billion in 2024, indicating that the tariffs have not achieved their intended goal of reducing the trade deficit [7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs have been passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and consumers, leading to increased prices and living costs in the U.S. [7]. - Despite facing some export pressures, China has shown resilience by expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships, maintaining stable economic growth [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The halt in U.S. crude oil imports by China is attributed to the U.S. tariff policies, which have diminished the price advantage of U.S. crude oil for China [8]. - The U.S. shale oil producers are projected to face losses of at least $10 billion due to the absence of the Chinese market, with U.S. crude oil exports dropping to 3.883 million barrels per day, a 4% decrease [8]. - China is actively seeking to diversify its energy imports, with agreements in place with Russia and Qatar to secure alternative oil and gas supplies [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The trade war has disrupted global supply chains, forcing multinational companies to reallocate resources and adjust production strategies, thereby increasing operational costs and risks [10]. - The unilateral actions by the U.S. have undermined the multilateral trade system, leading to slower progress in global trade negotiations and increasing trade disputes among nations [10]. - Some Southeast Asian countries have benefited from the trade war as they become alternative production bases for multinational companies, while those reliant on U.S.-China trade face economic slowdowns [10].

Group 1: Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade relationship has been characterized by escalating tensions, particularly through tariff battles initiated by the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, but later expressed a desire for peace, indicating a failure of the tariff strategy [1][3] - China responded by increasing its tariffs and demonstrated resilience by not yielding to U.S. pressure, ultimately leading to concessions from the U.S. [1][3] Group 2: Technology and Industry - The U.S. has attempted to restrict China's access to essential technology, particularly in the semiconductor sector, but these efforts have backfired [3][4] - China's advancements in AI and EDA tools have significantly improved chip design efficiency by over 40%, showcasing its ability to overcome technological barriers [3] - The U.S. restrictions on companies like NVIDIA have resulted in substantial losses, exceeding $150 billion in orders, while failing to halt China's progress in chip self-sufficiency [3] Group 3: Aerospace and Defense - The U.S. has halted technology exports to China in the aerospace sector, yet China's COMAC has achieved a 60% localization rate for its C919 aircraft [4] - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials for critical components, such as those used in the F-35 fighter jet, highlights its vulnerability [4] - The ongoing technological and supply chain challenges faced by the U.S. military underscore the risks associated with its strategy against China [4] Group 4: Diplomatic Dynamics - The U.S. has shown a willingness to engage diplomatically with China, as evidenced by Trump's unexpected attendance at the G20 summit to meet with Chinese officials [6] - Despite diplomatic overtures, the U.S. continues to provoke tensions in the South China Sea, revealing a contradiction in its approach to China [6][8] - The U.S. must reconsider its hegemonic mindset and adopt a more respectful and cooperative stance towards China to avoid further failures [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 if tariffs remain around 10% [1] - The ongoing trade tensions have created a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing between persistent inflation data and market volatility caused by tariffs [3] - The U.S. market experienced a significant downturn on May 21, with a sharp rise in bond yields, a drop in stock prices, and the dollar index falling below 100 [4] Group 2 - The long-standing debt issues have been exacerbated by the trade tensions, leading to increased scrutiny on the Federal Reserve's role in stabilizing the market [5] - The weak auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds on May 22 resulted in a "triple whammy" effect on stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 1.6% [7] - The auction's final yield of 5.047% marked a significant increase from previous rates, indicating a lack of demand and raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation [8] Group 3 - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields has raised fears among investors regarding the government's fiscal health and monetary policy [8] - The ongoing trade war has revealed underlying issues in the U.S. economy, with tariff revenues not keeping pace with rising national debt [9] - The proposed tax cuts are expected to further pressure the U.S. debt situation, with potential implications for the bond market [10] Group 4 - The anticipated tax legislation is projected to reduce household tax burdens significantly, which could impact the fiscal deficit and bond market reactions [11] - The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has raised questions about the sustainability of this rally amid ongoing geopolitical risks and rising federal spending [12] - Investors are advised to be cautious with dollar assets as the market navigates through the current volatility, with a potential shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and yen [13][14]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has recently appreciated against the USD, breaking through 7.17 and reaching a low of 7.16, with a closing rate of 7.1782 on May 26 [1] - Asian currencies and the Euro have generally appreciated by 5% to 10% against the USD this year, while the RMB's increase was less than 2% until early May [1] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 12-month USD/RMB target to 7.0, indicating a potential 3% foreign exchange gain for the RMB in the next year [1][4] Group 2 - Historically, when the RMB appreciates, the Chinese stock market tends to perform well, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary, real estate, and diversified financials [1][4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB was catalyzed by the RMB midpoint breaking below 7.2 on May 13, which was seen as a signal for potential appreciation [1][7] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to benefit companies with significant exposure to USD costs, particularly in sectors sensitive to import costs [5][6] Group 3 - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation include those with a market capitalization over $2 billion and daily trading volumes exceeding $500 million, particularly in industries like aviation, petrochemicals, and construction [5][6] - Conversely, companies with over 30% of their revenue from overseas and low USD debt exposure may be negatively impacted by RMB appreciation [6] Group 4 - The sustainability of the RMB's appreciation remains uncertain due to ongoing trade negotiations and macroeconomic conditions [7][8] - Future RMB exchange rates are expected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.3, depending on export performance and exporters' willingness to convert USD to RMB [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly after April, where daily price changes of $100 have become routine [1][3] - The current market conditions are driven by various factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased investor speculation in gold [3][5] - The gold market is expected to experience a range of $2950 to $3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [3][5] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3415 and $3438, with a potential breakthrough leading to new highs around $3500, while support levels are noted at $3280-$3285 and $3300 [5][8] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the range between $3365 and $3330, with opportunities for both long and short positions depending on market movements [7][8] - The silver market is advised to follow gold's trends without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on the import of chicken feet and pork by China, highlighting the challenges faced by importers and the shifting dynamics in the meat market due to tariffs and trade restrictions [3][4][7]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China is the largest importer and consumer of chicken feet and pork products globally, with the US being a significant supplier until recent tariff increases [3][7]. - The US imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, followed by a 34% retaliatory tariff from China, leading to a cumulative tariff exceeding 140% on certain imports, severely affecting trade [6][7]. - In 2024, China imported nearly 450,000 tons of frozen chicken feet, with the US accounting for only 10% of this volume, indicating a shift towards other suppliers like Brazil [7][12]. Group 2: Importer Challenges - Importers like Yan Jun faced significant losses due to customs rejections and high tariffs, leading to decisions to redirect shipments to other markets like Vietnam and Singapore [5][6]. - The article highlights the emotional and financial toll on importers, with many feeling helpless as they navigate the complexities of the trade war [6][14]. - The reliance on US products is diminishing as Chinese importers seek alternatives from countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Spain, which are now entering the Chinese market [15][19]. Group 3: Market Trends - The price of pork by-products has risen significantly, with some products like pig trotters and intestines fetching high prices in the market, reflecting changing consumer preferences [13][14]. - The article notes that the demand for chicken feet in China has led to a global supply shortage, with various countries now exporting chicken feet to China [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with US meat producers struggling to find alternative markets for their products, as the Chinese market was previously a major destination [12][18].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].

G7财长会议烽烟正起，美欧关税大战一触即发？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]