Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].

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Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent tariff war between the U.S. and China on the import of chicken feet and pork by-products, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced by importers in China and the dependency of U.S. suppliers on the Chinese market [1][2][12]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Imports - China is the largest importer and consumer of chicken feet and pork by-products, with the U.S. being a significant supplier [1][6]. - The initial tariff imposed by the U.S. was 20%, followed by a Chinese countermeasure of 34%, leading to a cumulative tariff exceeding 140% for some importers [5][6]. - Importers like Yan Jun faced significant losses due to customs issues and the escalating tariffs, with some opting to redirect their shipments to other markets like Vietnam and Singapore [3][5][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Alternatives - In 2024, China imported nearly 450,000 tons of frozen chicken feet, with the U.S. accounting for about 10% of this volume [6]. - The article notes that U.S. pork exports to China were valued at $1.1 billion in 2024, with over 80% being by-products [6]. - As a response to tariffs, Chinese importers are increasingly sourcing chicken feet and pork by-products from countries like Brazil, Russia, and Argentina, which has led to a decrease in demand for U.S. products [14][15]. Group 3: Cultural and Economic Factors - The article highlights the cultural differences in food preferences, noting that while chicken feet are popular in China, they are not widely consumed in Western countries [10][11]. - The price of chicken feet varies significantly by country, with U.S. prices ranging from $3,000 to $6,000 per ton, while Brazilian chicken feet are priced around $5,000 per ton [11]. - The dependency of U.S. suppliers on the Chinese market is emphasized, as they struggle to find alternative markets for their products [12][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the U.S. meat processing industry is facing challenges due to reduced exports to China, which could lead to increased prices domestically [13][16]. - There is a growing sentiment among Chinese importers to avoid U.S. products due to political risks and tariff uncertainties, leading to a shift in sourcing strategies [18][20]. - The potential for U.S. products to regain market share in China is questioned, as importers express reluctance to return to previous purchasing patterns after experiencing tariff volatility [19].

Group 1 - Trump expresses increased confidence and determination to engage in battles, stating "the fight has just begun" [2] - Trump plans significant diplomatic actions, including calls with Putin and Zelensky, aiming for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict [3][20] - Trump criticizes the U.S. Supreme Court for a recent ruling against his immigration policies, claiming it is influenced by radical leftists [5][6] Group 2 - Trump targets Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging for immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing his delay [9] - Trump publicly admonishes Walmart for passing tariff costs to consumers, insisting they should absorb the costs due to their substantial profits [11][12] - Trump continues to attack political opponents and figures from the past, indicating a combative stance towards both domestic and international issues [14][19] Group 3 - Trump emphasizes the need for U.S. involvement in international conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing situation in Gaza, highlighting the humanitarian crisis [30] - Trump's remarks about India and Pakistan have drawn criticism, suggesting a misalignment in U.S. foreign policy and relationships with these nations [26][27] - The dynamics between Trump and previously aligned figures, such as Supreme Court justices and Federal Reserve officials, have shifted, indicating potential fractures in support [28]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have significantly impacted the meat import and export industry, particularly affecting Chinese importers of US chicken feet and pork by-products, leading to substantial financial losses and shifts in sourcing strategies [1][3][18]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Chinese importers like Yan Jun have faced severe losses due to tariffs, with chicken feet prices subject to over 140% in tariffs after multiple rounds of trade retaliations [3][4]. - The initial tariff on pork by-products was raised from 12% to 37% during the previous trade war, severely affecting the profitability of US exports to China [5][6]. - The trade war has led to a significant reduction in US exports, with estimates suggesting a loss of $10 billion annually due to decreased demand from China [13]. Group 2: Market Adjustments - Chinese importers are increasingly sourcing chicken feet and pork by-products from alternative countries such as Brazil and Russia, leading to a rapid adjustment in market dynamics [16][17]. - The price of chicken feet and pork by-products initially spiked by 10% following the tariff announcements but quickly normalized as alternative suppliers entered the market [16]. - The reliance of US meat producers on the Chinese market is highlighted, as they struggle to find alternative customers for their products [12][20]. Group 3: Cultural and Market Insights - The consumption of chicken feet in China is significantly higher than in Western countries, where such products are often discarded, leading to a unique market dynamic [10][11]. - The price of chicken feet varies by country, with US chicken feet priced between $3,000 to $6,000 per ton, while other countries like Russia and Thailand offer lower prices [11]. - The cultural acceptance of chicken feet is growing among Western consumers, driven by the expansion of Chinese cuisine and restaurants abroad [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The US meat industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in re-establishing its market position in China due to the lasting effects of the trade war and changing consumer preferences [22]. - The potential for increased competition from countries like Argentina and Spain, which are looking to expand their meat exports to China, poses a threat to US market share [17][19]. - The interconnected nature of the meat supply chain means that disruptions in one area can lead to broader economic impacts, affecting everything from feed prices to consumer costs in the US [14][15].

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同时指出增加的税款属于谁购买谁出钱，这部分钱不是我们出而是由美国民众负责。 就在刚刚中美两国发布联合声明，重点强调了此次日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，公布了两天闭门谈判的结 果。中美双方承诺在5月14日前采取以下举措： 美国：在5月14日前，中国对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%，为期90天； 美国对中国商品的关税从145%降至30%，为期90天 后续双方建立相关协调机制，就关税的事情再做协商至此中美关税大战就此完结。 （在这里重点需要给大家强调一下为什么美国降到30%，这个多收20%属于芬太尼税，中方在2025年二 月份和三月份的时候已经进行过反制） 而在中美会谈的时候，日本首相石破茂5月12日在国会明确表态，日本坚持汽车关税必须作为谈判核心 议题。石破茂更是说出了豪言壮语表示，将在日美贸易谈判中寻求取消所有关税的目标。以"0%关 税"为最终目标。而日本将原计划定于和美国的谈判从六月份推迟到了七月份。 而在中美谈完，日本却迎来了非常不好的消息，不少投资者开始大规模的抛售日本国债，目前日本30年 期国债收益率攀升至近25年来的最高水平。 收益率上升5个基点，达到2000年11月以来的最高水平。 这 估计是日本方面 ...