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特朗普要猛烈战斗了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 23:19
Group 1 - Trump expresses increased confidence and determination to engage in battles, stating "the fight has just begun" [2] - Trump plans significant diplomatic actions, including calls with Putin and Zelensky, aiming for a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict [3][20] - Trump criticizes the U.S. Supreme Court for a recent ruling against his immigration policies, claiming it is influenced by radical leftists [5][6] Group 2 - Trump targets Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging for immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing his delay [9] - Trump publicly admonishes Walmart for passing tariff costs to consumers, insisting they should absorb the costs due to their substantial profits [11][12] - Trump continues to attack political opponents and figures from the past, indicating a combative stance towards both domestic and international issues [14][19] Group 3 - Trump emphasizes the need for U.S. involvement in international conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing situation in Gaza, highlighting the humanitarian crisis [30] - Trump's remarks about India and Pakistan have drawn criticism, suggesting a misalignment in U.S. foreign policy and relationships with these nations [26][27] - The dynamics between Trump and previously aligned figures, such as Supreme Court justices and Federal Reserve officials, have shifted, indicating potential fractures in support [28]
中美鸡爪贸易大战,中国赢了
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-16 14:00
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have significantly impacted the meat import and export industry, particularly affecting Chinese importers of US chicken feet and pork by-products, leading to substantial financial losses and shifts in sourcing strategies [1][3][18]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - Chinese importers like Yan Jun have faced severe losses due to tariffs, with chicken feet prices subject to over 140% in tariffs after multiple rounds of trade retaliations [3][4]. - The initial tariff on pork by-products was raised from 12% to 37% during the previous trade war, severely affecting the profitability of US exports to China [5][6]. - The trade war has led to a significant reduction in US exports, with estimates suggesting a loss of $10 billion annually due to decreased demand from China [13]. Group 2: Market Adjustments - Chinese importers are increasingly sourcing chicken feet and pork by-products from alternative countries such as Brazil and Russia, leading to a rapid adjustment in market dynamics [16][17]. - The price of chicken feet and pork by-products initially spiked by 10% following the tariff announcements but quickly normalized as alternative suppliers entered the market [16]. - The reliance of US meat producers on the Chinese market is highlighted, as they struggle to find alternative customers for their products [12][20]. Group 3: Cultural and Market Insights - The consumption of chicken feet in China is significantly higher than in Western countries, where such products are often discarded, leading to a unique market dynamic [10][11]. - The price of chicken feet varies by country, with US chicken feet priced between $3,000 to $6,000 per ton, while other countries like Russia and Thailand offer lower prices [11]. - The cultural acceptance of chicken feet is growing among Western consumers, driven by the expansion of Chinese cuisine and restaurants abroad [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The US meat industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in re-establishing its market position in China due to the lasting effects of the trade war and changing consumer preferences [22]. - The potential for increased competition from countries like Argentina and Spain, which are looking to expand their meat exports to China, poses a threat to US market share [17][19]. - The interconnected nature of the meat supply chain means that disruptions in one area can lead to broader economic impacts, affecting everything from feed prices to consumer costs in the US [14][15].
黄金,V型反转!单日暴涨120美元,无敌扫荡常态化!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 01:16
止损,永远是对的,错了也对! 死扛,永远是错的,对了也错! 横批:止损无条件! 如果没有交易原则,那么,一切技术等于零! 黄金昨天走势无敌,昨天2193附近亚盘先跌3120附近,跌幅达72美元;欧盘探底回升迎来大涨,美盘突破日内高点并站上3200大关后加速,日线以长下影光 头大阳线收盘3240一线! 未来相当长的一段时间里,黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡,然后寻求大区间突破!做多,做空,都可以,只要有充足的理由都可以,带 好损,不抗单,控制好仓位;只要不损,很容易大赚! 黄金,昨天日内探底暴涨完成多空转换,日内大涨120美元;黄金在60日均线获得支撑并大涨,这波下跌又要告一段落了。接下来回归看涨,关注上方3270- 65阻力突破情况;但突破前谨防大幅度回落后再涨;一旦向上突破,多头将直奔周一跳空缺口3323-27区域,然后逐步冲击3400大关! 黄金这种巨阳线一般不会回落太多,一旦回落又要折腾;所以,看涨的同时,也需要注意短期大涨用力过猛,再次上演深度调整继续扫荡的走势!今天行 情,大阳线理应顺势做多,但上方阻力强大,突破前随时有跳水风险,不适合追;顶着巨阳线做空,也不明智, ...
0515:金价探底回升,日内重磅新闻加剧金价抛售!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-15 14:47
点击下方关注许亚鑫,加★星标★,充值鑫仰! 今天早上一个多小时的重庆中行《中美关税谈判与国际宏观局势分析》的主题演讲结束,近一百六十位同时在线开会的场面还是非常棒啊,而且中行的做 事效率很高,接下来私人银行的活动也准备开始安排。 我已经安排技术进行视频切片处理,预计分成三段,届时你们可以留意我公众号和视频号的更新。 为会副学应 高净值客户的投资交易与资产配置 讲座时间 5月16日 全天六小时 个人简介 ● 匠鑫学院院长|北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究员| 国家高级黄金投资分析师|注册金融理财师 许亚鑫老师是资深金融分析师,曾任多家媒体专栏 专家和外汇贵金属评论员,拥有丰富的金融市场分 析经验。他以"风险第一,量力而行"的投资理念 指导培训,深受国内商业银行和知名学府的推崇。 O - | INDIA- | SOUTH ASIA | STATS | | 巴基斯坦 | 印度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PAKISTAN | PAKISTAN | INDIA | 战机损失 | 0 | 6 | | CONFLIC | | | | | | | TATIS | 0 | ...
应对关税大战不妨把消费主场搬到中国来
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-05-08 03:27
Group 1 - The recent "May Day" holiday saw a significant increase in both domestic and foreign tourists in China, particularly in Shanghai, where inbound consumption reached 455 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 211.6% [1] - The "immediate tax refund" policy for foreign tourists has been expanded, with Shanghai and other pilot regions experiencing a 22-fold increase in tax refund scale compared to the previous year, significantly outpacing the national growth rate of 18 times [1] - The majority of domestic tax refund rates are at 11%, which is highly competitive compared to the fluctuating rates in EU countries, further encouraging foreign tourists to shop in China [1] Group 2 - There has been a notable shift in consumer behavior, with foreign tourists increasingly finding that purchasing goods in China is more cost-effective than buying them abroad, leading to a rise in "reverse purchasing" phenomena [2] - The increase in foreign visitors to China is attributed to the high quality and affordability of Chinese products, prompting many to engage in shopping sprees during their visits [2] - The U.S. tariffs on imports have made Chinese goods more appealing to American consumers, who find it cheaper to buy products in China even after accounting for travel costs, indicating a strong demand for Chinese manufacturing [3] Group 3 - The influx of foreign consumers presents an opportunity for Chinese businesses to expand their international market presence by catering to the preferences of these consumers [3] - The goal for China is to not only be the "world's factory" but also to become a leading global destination for consumer tourism, encouraging international visitors to shop in China and promote Chinese products abroad [3]
凌晨,美联储按兵不动,黄金继续上演极端走势!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 01:04
止损,永远是对的,错了也对! 死扛,永远是错的,对了也错! 横批:止损无条件! 如果没有交易原则,那么,一切技术等于零! 凌晨美联储年内第三次维持利率不变,美联储主席鲍威尔继续硬钢特朗普,对黄金而言构成利空!不过,美联储利率决议期间,黄金波动有限,主要因为特 朗普重返白宫后开启的全球"关税大战"成了市场的焦点,同时全球地缘局势云波诡谲,使得美联储影响力大打折扣! 经过昨天欧美盘折腾后,今天先看区间,重点3360区域支撑,上方重点3400区域压制。向下破位,行情进一步走空,关注回撤3325--3300大关;向上突破, 则看涨3420--3440,甚至冲击历史新高!操作上,3360-3400区间内高抛低吸不追单,打破区间则顺势跟进一波! 白银,窄幅波动,方向跟着黄金;昨天冲高33.3后大跌,接下来继续关注高空,短线32.2-32区域支撑先看反弹! 昨天央妈降息降准,以应对当前市场不确定性,似乎影响并不大。当前,市场不缺钱,缺的是信心!消费贷款助力经济也就罢了,连养老都需要贷款了,也 是没法说。 基本面上,地缘局势依然是焦点,印巴冲突牵动全球的神经;俄乌和谈难以达成,冲突随时进一步加剧;美伊谈判各有各的底线,也是死 ...
中方对美掀桌后,石破茂也倒戈,日本手握万亿美债,美国已被拿捏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 04:01
对于美方的谈判暗示,中方一直不予理睬,这是不是意味着中美在关税问题上已"掀桌子"了?在这敏感时刻,日本是否会"倒戈"?东京万亿美债能否成石破 茂制胜特朗普的"王炸"? 特朗普挑起的"关税大战",实际上已经像回旋镖那样扎捅美国自己。此前,特朗普因意识到对华关税战给美国带来的伤害,不断释放双方正在商谈的信号。 对此,中方多次在公开场合戳破美方的有关谎言,直接让特朗普下不来台,这是中方对美国"掀桌子"的一种体现。那么中方对美掀桌后,中美是否因此"恩 断义绝"呢? 近期对于中美贸易问题有了新变化。 中国商务部新闻发言人表示,"美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息,希望与中方谈起来。对此,中方正在 进行评估"。从商务部发言人的表态来看,似乎出现某种改变,口气似乎有些缓和,而"中方正在进行评估"的表达,似乎说明中方可能会在适当的时候与美 方进行某种接触。 中方态度发生变化,是否说明美方已展示出某种诚意,外界尚不得而知。当然,中美是两个世界上最大的经济体,两者"和则共赢,斗则俱损"的道理谁都 懂。因此,就当前的形势来看,中美就贸易问题恢复对话应该是迟早的事情。尤其是在美方日渐扛不住的背景下,中美恢复就相关问题进行对话 ...
中国出口美国的商品主要有哪些?受关税影响如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of China's trade with the United States amidst domestic economic challenges, emphasizing the significant role of exports, particularly in consumer electronics and labor-intensive products, in driving economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China's direct and indirect trade with the U.S. may exceed $1 trillion, with a potential surplus of over $500 billion [2]. - The structure of exports to the U.S. is dominated by industrial products, particularly electromechanical products, which account for over 40% of total exports [2]. Group 2: Consumer Electronics - In 2024, China's export of consumer electronics to the U.S. reached 787.5 billion RMB, making up 21.1% of total exports to the U.S. and maintaining its position as the largest export category for eight consecutive years [3]. - Key categories within consumer electronics include smartphones (250.15 billion RMB), laptops (179.87 billion RMB), tablets (92 billion RMB), and smart home devices (18.9 billion RMB) [3]. - Chinese consumer electronics dominate the U.S. market, with market shares of 62% for smartphones, 58% for laptops, 67% for tablets, and 41% for smart home devices [3]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - Despite ongoing trade tensions, the U.S. has exempted certain Chinese consumer electronics from a 125% tariff, indicating a reliance on Chinese products [3]. - Major companies like Apple and Dell are unlikely to sever ties with Chinese supply chains in the short term due to this dependency [3]. Group 4: Labor-Intensive Products - Labor-intensive products, including textiles, furniture, toys, and plastic products, account for approximately 25% of China's exports to the U.S. [5]. - Despite rising domestic labor costs, China maintains competitive advantages in these sectors due to its complete and coordinated industrial system [5]. Group 5: Market Shares of Labor-Intensive Products - In the U.S. market, Chinese exports of clothing (including sports and casual shoes) account for 42.3% of the apparel market, textiles for 32.4%, furniture for 44.1%, and toys for 66.3% [6]. - Daily necessities and packaging materials have an export value of $42.19 billion, representing 8.0% of the U.S. market [7]. Group 6: Overall Export Landscape - The overall export landscape shows that high-value electromechanical products, particularly consumer electronics, are less affected by tariffs, while low-value labor-intensive products face significant pressure due to their substitutability [7]. - Core components like chips still rely on U.S. imports, highlighting a mixed dependency in the trade relationship [7].
【财经】PPG今年Q1营收降至37亿美元,中国区业绩逆势增长
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 17:31
Core Viewpoint - PPG reported a decline in net sales for Q1 2025, with a total of $3.684 billion, down 4.0% year-over-year, influenced by foreign currency translation and business divestitures, despite a 1% increase in organic sales [1][4][5] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating profit of $380 million, a decrease of 8.21% year-over-year, with a segment profit margin of 16.5% and an EBITDA margin of 19.4% [1][4] - Net profit for the quarter was $375 million, down 7.0% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was $396 million, reflecting an 11.0% decline [1][4] Segment Performance - The high-performance coatings segment saw a 9% organic sales growth, driven by strong demand in automotive refinish and aerospace coatings, with double-digit growth in several areas [4][15] - The architectural coatings segment reported net sales of $857 million, down 11.0% year-over-year, impacted by foreign currency translation and business divestitures [10][11] - The industrial coatings segment's net sales were $1.562 billion, down 8.0% year-over-year, with organic sales declining by 2% due to lower sales prices and volumes [20][21] Regional Performance - Organic sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased, while the U.S. saw a 4% organic sales growth, marking a recovery after six quarters of decline [4][7] - European organic sales decreased by 1%, showing improvement compared to previous quarters, indicating stabilizing demand [4][11] Cost Management and Shareholder Value - The company repurchased approximately $400 million in stock during the quarter, maintaining a strong balance sheet and focusing on shareholder value creation [4][5][23] - PPG anticipates annual savings of $75 million from cost management initiatives and is committed to adapting to economic uncertainties [5][7] Future Outlook - PPG maintains its adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2025 in the range of $7.75 to $8.05, supported by organic sales momentum and market share growth [5][29] - The company expects total organic sales for Q2 2025 to remain flat to low single-digit growth, with varying performance across segments [29]
我在耶鲁亲历关税大战中的美国
Hu Xiu· 2025-04-30 05:58
中美关税大战的风还是吹到了我的朋友圈。 最近,国内的亲朋好友对我关怀备至,隔三岔五冒出个人发信息问我: 你在美国还能吃上鸡蛋吗? 物价是不是很贵? 被问多了,我真有种自己快要破产的慌乱感。 于是,我赶紧去了趟位于耶鲁纽黑文附近的Costco,看看是不是真需要囤点啥。万一关税大战这场没有硝烟的战争持久打下去,家里也好少破点财、多挺 一段日子。 一、鸡蛋风云+囤货清单 第一次被人问时,我还有些丈二和尚摸不着头脑——我吃不上鸡蛋了?没有啊,我爸妈每天早餐必吃两个白水煮蛋,不是还管够么?后来,翻看了近期的 社交媒体,才发现,原来美国发生了"蛋慌"。 可欧洲各国不搭理对方。 丹麦鸡蛋协会表示会调查,但欧洲自己也缺蛋; 瑞典鸡蛋生产商直接拒绝,说运输太复杂; 挪威更是直接说"一个鸡蛋都不多卖",因为自己都缺; 法国也表示爱莫能助,禽流感让本国鸡蛋也紧张。 这下美国政府是"求蛋无门"了。 以及"鸡蛋文学":美墨边境上演了毒贩转行当"蛋枭"、用无人机运送鸡蛋、黑市鸡蛋价格已高于市场两倍假价钱的故事。 因为蛋慌,还引发了"鸡蛋风云": 特朗普政府因为本土缺蛋,向全球求援。先是向欧洲各国"求蛋",丹麦、荷兰、瑞典、挪威等国都收到 ...