Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is currently up by 0.06%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by 0.26% [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that $100 billion in tariffs have been collected to date, with expectations that tariff revenue could increase to $300 billion by the end of the year [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that the U.S. has collected $100 billion in tariffs so far, with expectations that tariff revenue could increase to $300 billion by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The current tariff revenue stands at $100 billion [1] - Projected tariff revenue by year-end is expected to reach $300 billion [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Gold Futures** market, particularly in the context of geopolitical events and economic indicators affecting gold prices. Core Insights and Arguments - A **ceasefire between Israel and Iran** led to widespread liquidation in gold futures, with gold prices falling **2.1%** from June 17th to June 24th. Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable net futures length declined by **$4.5 billion** during this period, with long unwinds accounting for **90%** of total selling [2][2][2]. - The **prospects of imminent trade deals** added further pressure on gold prices, as negotiations with major trading partners improved, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets. For instance, Goldman Sachs's Tariff Risk equity basket reached a **4-month high** by June 27th, while gold lost an additional **1.4%** [2][2][2]. - The nature of futures selling has potentially transitioned, as evidenced by an increase in aggregate open interest by **$1.8 billion** on June 27th, despite a **1.8%** drop in gold prices, indicating a dominance of short selling [2][2][2]. - The short-term flow picture appears precarious, with the Goldman Sachs Futures Strategists' CTA model indicating that price decreases have shifted short-term momentum into negative territory, although medium-term trends remain positive [2][2][2]. - Bulls' hopes are now reliant on **central banks** and the implications of the "big beautiful bill." Goldman Sachs Commodity Research noted strong central bank demand through April and intentions to continue purchases over the next year. However, the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits remains concerning, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting deficit increases from the proposed legislation [2][2][2]. Additional Important Content - The **options market** showed a mix of call selling and put buying, with gold's 3-month implied volatility decreasing and the 25 delta put-call skew reaching a multi-month maximum [2][2][2]. - There is a strong positive correlation between gold and **30-year U.S. Treasury yields**, indicating that any adverse financial market response, such as a rise in long-term interest rates, could significantly impact gold prices [2][2][2]. - The overall sentiment in the gold market is influenced by geopolitical events, trade negotiations, and central bank policies, which are critical for investors to monitor for potential investment opportunities and risks [2][2][2].

报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 785.16 | 7.62 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8819 | -83 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 172351 | 3606 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 432670 | -22562 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 142292 | 7939 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 117220 | -12800 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 17847 | 30 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1226150 | -3666 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 781.8 | 6.6 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8807 | -63 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元 ...

美国进口商支付的关税飙升至创纪录水平 关税收入跃升反映出特朗普几项新关税的作用，其中大部分于4月初生效。不仅仅是关税，5月份政府税收总额从去年的3236亿美元增长了15%，达到3712亿 美元。 然而，与美国政府的所有支出相比，创纪录的关税收入只是沧海一粟，5月份政府支出高达6872亿美元（比去年同期增长2.5%），所以关税收入仅占美国政 府开支的3%。 美国5月海关关税收入攀升至历史新高，助力当月预算赤字缩减。然而，随着特朗普政府与贸易伙伴谈判及其关税政策面临司法挑战，这些收入能否持续仍 存疑。 根据美国财政部月度预算声明，5月海关关税收入达230亿美元，较去年同期增加170亿美元，增幅270%。5月数据是2024年月均水平的三倍多。 财政部官员称，上月财政状况改善还得益于债务付息成本下降，这得益于通胀挂钩证券付息减少及短期国库券贴现率降低。 尽管如此，总体情况仍然令人沮丧，5月份利息支付高达922亿美元， 反映出美国的债务状况不可持续。美国政府每年累计1.2万亿美元的总利息支出，仅比 最大的支出类别——社会保障支出少3000亿美元。 财政部长贝森特周三早些时候警告，美国本财年仍面临另一巨额赤字。他在众议院 ...

Core Insights - In May, U.S. tariffs reached a historic high, contributing to a reduction in the monthly budget deficit [1] - There are concerns about the sustainability of tariff revenue due to ongoing trade negotiations and legal challenges faced by the Trump administration [1] Financial Performance - Tariff revenue in May amounted to $23 billion, an increase of $17 billion compared to the same month last year, representing a growth rate of 270% [1] - The fiscal deficit for May, after adjusting for calendar year differences, was $316 billion, a decrease of 17% from the same period last year [1] - For the first eight months of the fiscal year, the deficit totaled $1.37 trillion [1] Debt Management - A favorable factor for the fiscal situation in the previous month was the decrease in the cost of debt repayment by the Treasury [1] - This reduction is attributed to lower payments on inflation-protected securities and a decrease in the discount rate on Treasury bills [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. fiscal policy and economic growth [3][11][28]. Summary by Sections Bill Content and Progress - The "Big Beautiful Bill" includes the permanent extension of key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, additional tax relief measures, and increased spending in defense and border security while cutting expenditures in agriculture, education, and energy [3][11][13]. - The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [11][28]. Tax Policy - The bill extends and makes permanent the major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new personal and family tax cuts, and raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 [13][14]. - It also imposes higher tax rates on passive income for individuals and corporations from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, potentially reaching a maximum rate of 20% [4][14]. Deficit and Revenue Projections - The estimated annual tariff revenue is projected to reach around $200 billion, which could help mitigate the deficit increase caused by the bill, although it will not fully cover the shortfall from tax cuts [5][30]. - Under baseline assumptions, the deficit rates for 2025 to 2028 are estimated to be around 6.4% to 7.0%, with optimistic scenarios potentially lowering the rates slightly [6][30][28]. Economic Impact - The bill is expected to provide a marginal boost to economic growth, with projections indicating a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and a potential recovery to 2.0%-2.5% in 2026 due to tax cuts and lower interest rates [7][32]. - However, the long-term fiscal sustainability remains a concern, as the combination of increased deficits and rising interest payments could lead to a significant increase in the national debt [34][38]. Long-term Debt and Interest Risks - The CBO estimates that if the ten-year Treasury yield remains at 4.5%, interest payments could exceed $13 trillion by 2034, significantly increasing the fiscal burden [34][38]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from nearly 100% to 128% by 2034, raising concerns among credit rating agencies about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [38]. Market Reactions and Bond Yields - Recent increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to the "Trump premium," reflecting market concerns over the fiscal implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the potential for increased deficits [45][51]. - Despite short-term pressures, the 10-year Treasury bonds are still viewed as having significant investment value, especially in light of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [52].

以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

美国财长贝森特：我们正从关税收入中获得大量收入，今年联邦预算赤字将比去年更少。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential impact of judicial intervention on Trump's tariff policies, which U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra deems "inappropriate" [1] - Becerra states that court rulings on tariffs have harmed "tariff revenue," indicating a negative financial implication for the U.S. government [1] - Trade partners are approaching the U.S. with goodwill, suggesting a potential for improved trade relations [1] Group 2 - A Japanese representative is scheduled to visit Becerra's office by May 30, indicating ongoing diplomatic and trade discussions [1]