Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand for new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, and strong storage capacity of farmers, along with active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 110.80 tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%, higher than the previous week but 9% behind last year and 1% behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - After the China - US trade policy game, the focus is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and a decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened, and the demand for new - season US soybeans is uncertain [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.36%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2542 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: From October 16, US corn export sales net increased by 282.26 tons, up 113% from the previous week and 64% from the four - week average [3] Market Analysis - Due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, strong storage capacity of farmers, and active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton prices are limited, and a sideways trading pattern is expected. In the long - term, cotton prices are optimistic after the seasonal pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] - The short - term fundamental drivers of Zhengzhou sugar prices are still downward, but the decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend next year may not be optimistic [5] - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8] Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton yesterday, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The November USDA report was bearish for the market. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, driving the Zhengzhou cotton futures price to rebound. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, the expected yield in Xinjiang has risen again, the downstream peak season is not obvious, and the demand support is insufficient. But the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is okay, so the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Consider a sideways trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term. In the long - term, be optimistic about cotton prices after the seasonal pressure and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5387 yuan/ton yesterday, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season, with 15.177 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.64% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's supply remained strong in the second half of October, strengthening the oversupply expectation. Indian sugar mills have started crushing, and the sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season. The long - term oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the short - term decline space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar: The recently announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and Guangxi sugar mills are starting to crush, so the short - term supply pressure is high, driving the Zhengzhou sugar price to a new low [4] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support prices at the beginning of the season. The short - term decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. The long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and new lows may appear [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5212 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Some pulp prices in the imported wood pulp spot market showed a weakening trend [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply pattern remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was emerging. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8]

Group 1 - The main contract for late indica rice futures remains unchanged at 2535.00 CNY/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - In the third week of November 2025, Brazil exported a total of 3.939 million tons of corn, down from 4.7264 million tons in November last year, with an average daily shipment of 281,400 tons, representing a 13.11% increase compared to last November's 248,800 tons per day [2] - In the next 6-10 days, 20% of the major corn-producing areas in the United States are expected to experience above-normal temperatures, while 90% of the areas are likely to see precipitation above historical averages [2] - As of November 20, 2025, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,632,144 tons, which is a 21% decrease from the previous week but a 62% increase year-on-year, with total export inspections for the 2025/26 season up 72% compared to the same period last year [2] - According to AgRural, as of last Thursday, the planting area for Brazil's first corn crop in the 2025/26 season has reached 93% of the planned area in the central-southern region [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has short - term supply pressure and weak demand, but in the long - term, the supply - demand situation is not overly loose and the price is expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2][3] - The sugar market is in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season with a surplus pattern. The domestic sugar price may be supported in the short - term but is not optimistic in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has a loose supply situation, weak demand, and although the price is currently strong due to macro - sentiment, the fundamental improvement is limited and the upside space may be restricted [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,580 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - From October 31 to November 6, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 230,400 tons, with 82.6% of lint meeting ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the macro - sentiment has improved, but the supply pressure is being released and the consumption is weak, so the short - term rebound space of the outer market is limited [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the overall new cotton is still expected to increase in production and the demand is insufficient [2] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. In the short - term, there is a possibility of a price correction, while in the long - term, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,475 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - The Indian government has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and cancelled the 50% export tariff on molasses [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar export is strong and the Indian new - season production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bearish cycle in the 25/26 season [5] - Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, but the price has fallen to the cost line and the syrup control policy provides short - term support [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Before the Spring Festival, view the sugar price as oscillating. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose and the price may hit new lows [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,085 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was rising, with some prices of imported softwood pulp and hardwood pulp increasing by 20 - 100 yuan/ton and 20 - 80 yuan/ton respectively [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level, and the domestic pulp import increased again in September with high port inventory [6] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing the pulp price. The terminal demand is insufficient and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The current pulp price is strong due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Report on the Oil and Fat Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, with a chance of gradually bottoming out and rebounding. Domestic palm oil futures are in an oscillatory adjustment phase, while soybean oil supply is expected to remain abundant, but crushers' losses support price - holding. [1] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with November 3, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 50 yuan to 8420 yuan, with a 0.60% increase; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 30 yuan to 8570 yuan, with a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 rapeseed oil decreased by 30 yuan to 9770 yuan, with a 0.31% decrease. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The basis of Y2601 soybean oil increased by 52 yuan to 312 yuan, with a 20.00% increase; the basis of P2601 palm oil increased by 18 yuan to - 46 yuan, with a 28.13% increase; the basis of OI601 rapeseed oil decreased by 3 yuan to 327 yuan, with a 0.91% decrease. [1] - **Inventory Outlook**: In Malaysia, the market expects the end - of - month palm oil inventory to reach about 2.44 million tons. In China, the soybean inventory at factories was 7.7 million tons last weekend, at a record high since 2021. [1] Report on the Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price has weakened from a strong level. However, the slowdown in the overall slaughter progress in November may boost the pig price to some extent. The current market is in a weakly oscillatory range, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread position can be held. [4] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 11950 yuan/ton; the price of the main contract basis decreased by 200 yuan to 265 yuan/ton, with a 43.01% decrease. [4] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 203 to 158004, with a 0.37% decrease; the weekly price of piglets decreased by 6 yuan to 20 yuan/kg, with a 23.08% decrease. [4] Report on the Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of new - crop US soybeans this year, which provides support for the US soybean market. However, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but due to cost - side support and negative crushing margins, the downward space for domestic soybean meal is limited. [7] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 10 yuan to 3050 yuan, with a 0.33% increase; the spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 10 yuan to 2530 yuan, with a 0.40% increase. [7] - **Spread and Margin Changes**: The basis of M2601 soybean meal increased by 21 yuan to 35 yuan, with a 150.00% increase; the basis of RM2601 rapeseed meal increased by 4 yuan to 33 yuan, with a 13.79% increase. The crushing margin for US Gulf January shipments increased by 26 yuan to - 661 yuan, with a 3.8% increase; the crushing margin for Canadian January shipments decreased by 63 yuan to 596 yuan, with a 9.56% decrease. [7] Report on the Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the corn market is under selling pressure, and the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, remaining in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, due to low imports, demand resilience, and policy regulation, the corn market will be in a tight - balance situation. [8] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of corn 2601 decreased by 6 yuan to 2135 yuan, with a 0.28% decrease; the price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 2444 yuan, with a 0.37% decrease. [8] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The morning remaining vehicle count at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 20 to 648, with a 3.18% increase; the inventory of Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 2385 to 66351, with a 3.73% increase. [8] Report on the Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The expected increase in sugar supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure but is relatively resistant to decline due to cost support and market sentiment. The spot market is sluggish, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. [13] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 yuan to 5481 yuan, with a 0.33% decrease; the price of ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.47 cents to 14.21 cents/pound, with a 3.20% decrease. [13] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 1.1989 million tons to 11.1621 million tons, with a 12.03% increase; the national cumulative sugar sales increased by 0.88 million tons to 10.48 million tons, with a 9.17% increase. [13] Report on the Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a stalemate but may gradually rise as demand recovers. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300. [16] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3144 yuan/500KG, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to 3337 yuan/500KG, with a 0.30% decrease. [15] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 0.15 yuan to 2.8 yuan/feather, with a 5.66% increase; the price of culled hens decreased by 0.18 yuan to 4.11 yuan/jin, with a 4.20% decrease. [15] Report on the Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The cost of new cotton provides strong support for the cotton price, but the price faces hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not significant. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. [18] Summary by Category - **Price Changes**: On November 4, compared with the previous day, the price of cotton 2605 decreased by 60 yuan to 13522 yuan, with a 0.44% decrease; the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan to 13535 yuan, with a 0.48% decrease. [18] - **Inventory and Consumption Indicators**: The commercial cotton inventory increased by 0.6985 million tons to 1.7202 million tons, with a 68.4% increase; the industrial cotton inventory decreased by 0.0362 million tons to 0.8093 million tons, with a 4.3% decrease. [18]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on October 30, 2025, covering various agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term support, beware of a second decline [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebound, pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [2] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the meeting between Chinese and US leaders [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Weakly range - bound [2] - Sugar: Strongly range - bound [2] - Cotton: The rising cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintain adjustment [2] - Hogs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,842 yuan/ton (down 1.29% during the day) and 8,826 yuan/ton (down 0.18% at night). Soybean oil futures closed at 8,132 yuan/ton (down 0.61% during the day) and 8,146 yuan/ton (up 0.17% at night). The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan) [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Pakistan may increase the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. As of October 23, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is 60 - 160 million tons. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, with an output of 177 million tons [6][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4,113 yuan/ton (+0.51%) during the day and 4,107 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night. DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton (+0.03%) during the day and 2,975 yuan/ton (+0.03%) at night [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, Chinese state - owned enterprises bought three ships of US soybeans. Traders are watching for more Chinese purchases ahead of the China - US leaders' meeting [17][19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of C2601 was 2,116 yuan/ton (-0.09%) during the day and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume of C2601 was 374,280 lots (down 100,431 lots), and the open interest was 925,389 lots (up 13,061 lots) [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price increased slightly [22]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,730 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,494 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,620 yuan/ton (+0.41%) during the day and 13,650 yuan/ton (+0.22%) at night. The trading volume of CF2601 was 255,130 lots (up 77,784 lots), and the open interest was 910,968 lots (up 2,065 lots) [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot trading was average, and the ICE cotton futures rose by more than 1% due to optimistic trade prospects [29]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2511 closed at 2,912 yuan/500 kg (up 1.22%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,368 yuan/500 kg (up 1.91%) [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Not provided Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,580 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price of Hog 2601 was 12,160 yuan/ton (down 170 yuan) [34]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses, and the national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, up 3.4% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year [36] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK601 closed at 7,822 yuan/ton (up 0.03%). The trading volume of PK601 was 68,448 lots (up 15,637 lots), and the open interest was 175,747 lots (down 3,551 lots) [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the spot market, the supply in most regions is limited, and prices are stable or slightly stronger [38]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic fundamentals have little change, with sufficient arrivals, high soybean and bean meal inventories, and overall ample supply. Key factors to watch are the China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - In the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm was initially low due to the decline in northern port corn prices but has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the pace of wet grain sales has slowed. On the demand side, various inventories are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Latest News**: As of October 24, the soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 60.05%, up 16.48 percentage points from last week. As of October 19, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 12.4 tons, and the cumulative export volume in the 2025/26 season was 107.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.3% [2] Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.98%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Latest News**: As of October 23, Ukraine had harvested 424 hectares of sunflower seeds (82% of the planned area), with a yield of 783.8 tons; 152 hectares of soybeans, with a yield of 350.2 tons; and 127 hectares of rapeseed, with a yield of 331 tons [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply of bean meal is relatively loose, and future market trends depend on China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of wet grain sales in North China has slowed. On the demand side, inventory levels are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of bean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and corn starch, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bean meal market is mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The downstream soybean supply in China remains sufficient in the short - term, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain, as well as the impact of rainfall on corn quality [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2907 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2364 yuan/ton, a change of + 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.30%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 93, a change of + 20 from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 7, a change of + 10 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 216, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects the soybean export volume in Brazil in October 2025 to be 731 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 712 million tons and a 65% increase compared to 443 million tons in October last year. The expected soybean export volume from January to October is 1.02 billion tons, compared to 934.9 million tons in the same period last year, and the expected annual export volume will reach a record 1.1 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic bean meal market lacks clear data guidance due to the US government shutdown and is mainly oscillating. The downstream soybean supply in China is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 29, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 174, a change of + 25 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: On October 15, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics estimated that the total corn planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 22.163 million hectares, a 3.8% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.2% increase from last year's planting area. The total corn output is estimated to be 138.438 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 20.7% increase from last year's output [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - New corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Rainfall has affected the quality of corn during the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]