尽管眼下距离上周的美联储6月议息会议才过去不到一周，但美联储主席鲍威尔显然将又一次 成为整个华尔街的焦点所在…… 按照日程安排，鲍威尔将于北京时间今晚22点向众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策 报告证词。而在明日同一时间段，他还将"转战"参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会发表类似 的证词演讲。 德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzet在近期的一份研报中就表示，6月点阵图反映 出的官员分歧程度创下了十年新高，这表明美联储官员们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之 间，正存在根本性分歧。 而与此同时，不知是否受到了特朗普和白宫官员频繁施压的影响，在6月议息会议才过去仅仅 几天的情况下，就已有至少两位美联储理事——沃勒和鲍曼表示可能支持在下月就立刻降息： 这两人中，过去几周立场一直在美联储内部处于最鸽派阵营的沃勒，其降息言论或许还 算是"一如往昔"，但鲍曼在过往却绝非美联储内部的极端鸽派阵营。 更令人感到玩味的是，在当前美联储的7位理事中，其实只有鲍曼和沃勒两位是特朗普第 一任政府时期上任的官员。同时，沃勒过去一年曾被不少人视为下任美联储主席热门人选， 鲍曼则刚刚被特朗普政府提拔为负责金融监管的美联储副主 ...

《危机经济学》涵盖的不仅是2008年危机，还有过去三十多 年在东南亚、拉丁美洲等地发生的区域性宏观危机。 作者：韩明睿 封图：图虫创意 距离2008年全球金融危机已经过去了一代人的时间。无论是决策者还是关心经济的普通人，都想 知道应当从中吸取什么教训。这当然也是十几年来经济学界的研究重点之一。由两位顶尖的宏观经 济学家马库斯·布伦纳梅尔和里卡多·雷斯合写的《危机经济学:宏观金融的崩溃与复苏》，就是面向 仅具有经济学基本知识的非专业人士介绍该领域研究进展的一本小书。英文书名"A Crash Course on Crises"实际上围绕"崩溃"（crash）一词玩了个文字游戏，"crash course"意为"速成课程"，这 套危机"速成课程"的主题也就不是一般的金融危机，而是像2008年危机这样的宏观金融崩溃。根 据两位作者的定义，金融危机是指一个金融市场所遭受的负面冲击迅速蔓延至别处，使多个市场几 乎同时出现大幅下跌或亏损。金融危机并不一定会对宏观经济造成沉重打击。世纪之交科技股泡沫 破灭，对经济就没有太大影响。但如果危机严重伤害了实体经济，经济问题又反馈至金融领域并加 剧危机，爆发的就是宏观金融崩溃了。《危 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the lessons learned from the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of macroeconomic and financial theories in understanding financial crises [1][2] Mechanisms of Crisis Formation - The 2008 crisis was primarily triggered by subprime mortgages linked to the real estate market, a pattern observed in various financial crises over the past century [4] - Real estate booms often result from capital inflows, making the sector a favored destination for financing, particularly in developing countries [4] - The influx of funds into real estate does not necessarily promote growth in productive sectors like manufacturing, leading to asset price bubbles [4][5] Nature of Financial Crises - Financial crises are characterized by bank runs, where liquidity issues can escalate into solvency problems, affecting both traditional banks and shadow banking institutions [6] - The interconnectedness of financial institutions means that a crisis in one area can lead to widespread asset sell-offs, exacerbating market downturns [7][8] Sovereign Debt Crisis - The relationship between banks and governments is crucial, as systemic banking crises can lead to sovereign debt crises due to the intertwined fates of financial institutions and state finances [9] Policy Responses - Central banks play a vital role in responding to crises, utilizing tools like liquidity provision and quantitative easing to stabilize markets [11][12] - Fiscal policies, such as increasing public spending during crises, are recommended to counteract reduced private sector consumption and prevent liquidity traps [13] Emerging Policy Proposals - New policy suggestions include automatic fiscal measures triggered by economic downturn indicators and a shift in monetary policy targets from inflation to nominal GDP [14]

本文字数：2050，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 经历日前大幅下行之后，6月18日，国债收益率多数反弹。此前，基于宏观基本面表现和宽货币政策 预期，债市做多情绪有所升温。 2025.06. 18 对于央行何时重启国债买卖，上述债市研究人士认为，结合去年央行启动国债买卖时点和实际情况需 要，最合适的时机预计在今年下半年尤其是三季度，"预计早于去年"。"相关操作都会有相应的公告 流程，拿这个去炒作也不合理。"该人士提示，宽货币预期及其对债市的支撑依然存在，但也要避免 被非理性力量带偏。 后市怎么走 市场对央行国债买卖或将重启的预期基于多方面因素，其中一大考虑仍是季末月银行同业存单到期规 模较大，且近期大行买入短债规模持续增加。 对于此前市场上关于"中短期国债纳入存款准备金"、央行重启国债买卖等的猜测，有智库资深金融研 究员对第一财经表示，前者目前仍存在不少争议，存款准备金制度改革需要一个过程，不应作为短期 炒作点。"重启国债买卖的最佳窗口期预计在下半年，会有相应公告程序。"一位债市研究人士称。 国债收益率多数反弹 18日，债市全天以震荡为主，国债期货走势分化，其中30年期主力合约涨0.09%，盘中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is speculating on the inclusion of short- and medium-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, and there are high expectations for the central bank to restart government bond trading in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On June 18, government bond yields mostly rebounded after a significant decline, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market due to macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations of loose monetary policy [2][3]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.09% and the 10-year main contract falling by 0.01% [2]. Group 2: Speculation on Policy Changes - There is ongoing debate regarding the inclusion of short-term government bonds in the reserve requirement, with uncertainty about its implementation and timing [3]. - Analysts suggest that the best window for the central bank to restart government bond trading is expected in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Funding Conditions - The market anticipates that the central bank will restart bond purchases due to significant upcoming maturities of interbank certificates of deposit and increased buying of short-term bonds by major banks [4][5]. - Recent actions by the central bank, including multiple announcements of reverse repos, indicate a supportive stance towards the funding environment, which has contributed to a recovery in the overall leverage in the bond market [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sentiment in the bond market is currently optimistic, with expectations of continued support from the central bank and a potential increase in net financing of government bonds in the third quarter [4][5]. - However, some analysts caution that the space for further declines in bond yields may be limited, particularly for the 10-year government bond yield, which faces resistance in the range of 1.5% to 1.6% [5].

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of June 18, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, marking its eighth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.19% as of June 17, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 18.577 billion yuan, a record high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 175 million, the highest in the past three months [1] - The Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for eight days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 3.025 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - Leveraged funds have been actively participating, with the Company Bond ETF receiving net purchases from leveraged funds for five consecutive days, reaching a maximum single-day net purchase of 8.4424 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF Performance - As of June 18, 2025, the National Bond ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.03%, achieving its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price at 117.63 yuan [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF for 5 to 10 years is 1.433 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume for the National Bond ETF for the past month is 496 million yuan [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF Performance - As of June 18, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) showed mixed performance with the latest price at 106.17 yuan, and it has accumulated a rise of 2.00% over the past year [5] - The average daily trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF over the past year is 547 million yuan [6] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF is 1.054 billion yuan [6] Group 4: Market Analysis and Trends - The accounting logic regarding short-term national bonds and their inclusion in the central bank's balance sheet is under discussion, which could impact liquidity and monetary policy [7] - There is potential for adjustments in the statutory reserve deposit rates as policy rates decline, which may affect the bond market [7] - The use of digital currency for subsidizing various sectors and its implications for the internationalization of the RMB is being explored [8] - The "Three Musketeers" of bond ETFs, including Company Bond ETF, National Development Bond ETF, and National Bond ETF for 5 to 10 years, provide a diversified investment approach across different bond types and durations [8]

做短期的逻辑或预期，就是按照"买传闻，卖新闻"来操作，当预期起来时，要相信它，顺势而为；当新闻发生时，要怀疑它， 逆势而动。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250617— 茅台跌破2000，债牛接力前行（+传明天潘行宣布重启国债买卖+传短久期国债纳入存款准备金+资金面均衡 偏松=小下)】 今天看到两组数据：一是，二手房价已跌回2017年初的水平；二是，近两日25年飞天茅台散瓶价1960元/瓶，是2021年以来首次 跌破2000元"心理防线"。债农：各路价格跌跌不休，利率作为资金的价格，小跌一下也不过分吧？ 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1973亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1986亿元逆回购到期和1820亿元MLF到期，合计净回笼1833亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率微幅下行，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在 1.52%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 17) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高 ...

证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月17日 资金观察，货币瞭望 半年末叠加到期高峰，预计6月资金利率季节性上行 投资策略 · 固定收益 2025年第六期 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储6月会议继续暂停降息预期一致，美债短期利率 走势平稳； ➢国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：5月资金面继续转松，银行间和交易所回购利 率均值大多 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup plans to allocate several hundred million dollars more than the previous quarter to address potential loan losses, indicating that major U.S. banks may be preparing for worsening economic conditions [1] Group 1: Financial Provisions - The increase in provisions is driven by credit loss costs and macroeconomic factors [1] - The bank's head of banking, Vis Raghavan, stated that the expected increase in provisions will be several hundred million dollars compared to the previous quarter [1] - The amount allocated for credit reserves may fluctuate frequently based on the company's outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India emphasizes the importance of maintaining certainty in an uncertain environment, advocating for preemptive interest rate cuts and a reduction in the cash reserve ratio to provide banks with stability [1] Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India is considering early implementation of interest rate cuts to enhance economic certainty [1] - A reduction in the cash reserve ratio is proposed to support banks and ensure liquidity in the financial system [1]