Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 198,000, the lowest level since November of last year, indicating a potential stabilization in the labor market despite recent holiday season fluctuations [1][4] - The four-week moving average of new claims, which helps smooth out data volatility, fell to 205,000, marking a two-year low [4] - Despite recent layoffs announced by major employers like PepsiCo and Meta, actual data shows that these have not yet translated into widespread job losses [4] Group 2 - The number of continuing jobless claims dropped to 1.88 million in the previous week, serving as an indicator of the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits [5] - In unadjusted terms, initial jobless claims saw a significant increase, which is common during this time of year, with the largest increases reported in Texas, California, and Michigan [6] - Recent non-farm payroll data indicated a modest employment growth, with December's adjusted non-farm employment population increasing by 50,000, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, better than the anticipated 4.5% [6]

责任编辑：王许宁 上周，美国初请失业金人数降至今年最低水平之一，突显了假期期间该数据的波动性。美国劳工部周三 公布的数据显示，截至12月27日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.6万人，至19.9万人，低于经济学家预计的 22万人。最近的数据一直不稳定，这是假期期间的典型情况。最新统计周期涵盖了圣诞节，以及新设立 的12月24日和26日联邦假日。此外，续请失业金人数在前一周下降至187万人。 上周，美国初请失业金人数降至今年最低水平之一，突显了假期期间该数据的波动性。美国劳工部周三 公布的数据显示，截至12月27日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.6万人，至19.9万人，低于经济学家预计的 22万人。最近的数据一直不稳定，这是假期期间的典型情况。最新统计周期涵盖了圣诞节，以及新设立 的12月24日和26日联邦假日。此外，续请失业金人数在前一周下降至187万人。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

格隆汇12月31日｜美国上周初请失业金人数持续回落，录得19.9万人，低于市场普遍预期。有分析师表 示，假期期间的初请失业金人数波动较大，而且会受到季节性大幅修正的影响，因此很难作为编制指数 的依据。 ...

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims decreased by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ended December 27 [1] - This marks the third consecutive weekly decline in jobless claims [1]

摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成 看跌收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金 价涨势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成看跌 收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金价涨 势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 美国国债收益率几无变动，交易员观望。黄金突破4500美元非孤立现象，避险需求等支撑涨势。目前市 场缺乏利空催化剂，买方主导。分析师认为，央行购金步伐放缓是涨势唯一威胁，若维持当前水平，预 计2026年底金价达5000美元。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至12月20日当周，季调后初请失业金人数录得21.4万人，环比减少1万 人，连续两周下降且低于市场预期的22.4万人，四周移动平均值同步降至21.675万人，短期新裁员压力 有所缓解。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金白盘先涨后跌，于4500关口震荡。晚盘因明日停盘，或震荡收尾，4小时现墓碑线，短期难续单边 行情，预计 ...

美国至12月20日当周初请失业金人数21.4万人，预期22.4万人，前值22.4万人。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: China Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for December, with the 1-year LPR remaining at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, both unchanged from previous values [1] - On December 24, the National Bureau of Statistics will release important production material market prices, covering 50 products across nine categories, including metals and agricultural products [6] - The Central Bank is expected to roll over 300 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on December 25, continuing a trend of increasing MLF for nine consecutive months [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish industrial enterprise profit data for January to November, with profits for the first ten months down by 5.5% year-on-year, but showing a 1.9% increase in October [9] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US Commerce Department will release the final GDP value for Q3 2025, with an expected annualized growth rate of 3.2% and a price index increase of 2.7% [2] - The initial value of US durable goods orders for November is expected to show a decline of 1.4%, down from a previous increase of 0.5% [3] - The Federal Reserve will announce the industrial production figures for November, with expectations of a 0.1% month-on-month change, consistent with the previous month [4] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for December is anticipated to rise to 91.7 from 88.7, which could positively impact industrial commodity prices [5] - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20, with expectations of a decrease to 215,000 from 224,000 [7]

Inflation Data - The year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.7% from 3% in September, indicating a positive trend in inflation [1] - The core CPI also fell from 3% to 2.6% year-over-year, suggesting further improvement in inflation metrics [1] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims dropped to 224,000 from a revised 237,000 the previous week, reflecting a strengthening job market [1] - Continuing claims increased to 1,897,000 from 1,830,000, indicating some ongoing challenges in employment [2] Business Outlook - The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook index declined to -10.2% from -1.7%, signaling a more pessimistic view among businesses [2] - The prices paid index decreased to 43.6% from 56.1%, suggesting lower inflation expectations among businesses [2] Price Trends - Gasoline prices rose by 3% in November after a 2.1% decline in October, indicating volatility in energy prices [4] - New vehicle prices increased by 0.1% in October and 0.2% in November, while used car prices rose by 0.7% in October and 0.3% in November, showing some stabilization in the automotive market [4] - Food prices increased by 2.6% year-over-year, with grocery prices specifically rising by 1.9%, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in the food sector [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with some dissent among members regarding the decision, while also announcing the restart of reserve management purchases [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new interest rate is set at 3.75%, down from the previous 4.00% [2] - There were three dissenting votes during the meeting, with two members opposing the rate cut and one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that 6 out of 19 officials do not support the rate cut, and the median path for 2026 remains unchanged [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 6 were reported at 236,000, higher than the expected 220,000 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit for September was revised to $59.3 billion, which is narrower than the expected $63.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since June 2020 [2] - China's CPI for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the M2 money supply growth was reported at 8%, below the market expectation of 8.2% [2] Group 3: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Bank of England's interest rate decision on December 18, the European Central Bank's deposit rate announcement, and the U.S. November CPI and non-farm payroll data release on December 18 [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a rebound, indicating a strengthened bullish sentiment and potential for further upward movement, with targets set at $4,380 or higher [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - On December 11, gold opened at $4,224.45 per ounce, reached a high of $4,285.66, and closed at $4,279.56, marking a daily increase of $55.11 or 1.3% [1]. - The daily trading range was $81.35, with a low of $4,204.31 [1]. Influencing Factors - The increase in gold prices is supported by buying pressure and a significant rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S., which marked the largest weekly increase since the pandemic [3]. - The continued decline of the U.S. dollar index has also contributed to the strengthening of gold prices, alongside robust demand for silver [3]. Market Outlook - On December 12, gold opened weakly due to profit-taking but still showed bullish demand, with expectations of a continued decline in the dollar index [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, are anticipated to influence gold prices positively or maintain high volatility [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish patterns and enhancing the outlook for new highs [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is maintaining momentum above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken through recent resistance levels, with expectations to target $4,320 and $4,380 in the near term [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,260 and $4,245, while resistance levels are at $4,310 and $4,340 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $62.50 and $61.65, with resistance at $64.30 and $64.90 [9].