Group 1 - The global economic landscape is becoming increasingly complex, characterized by slowing growth and rising risks, with unpredictable trade policies questioning assumptions about inflation and employment trends [1] - Investors are likely to rely more on fixed income assets due to their dual characteristics of stability and yield, which have proven to be more predictable over time [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is expected to experience moderate growth, with GDP growth projected to be below trend levels, while potential risks from tariff uncertainties could increase the likelihood of recession or stagflation [3] - The Federal Reserve may need to resume easing policies, with the possibility of up to two rate cuts by the end of the year if tariffs impact U.S. economic growth [3] - Long-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate within a historically wide range, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield projected between 3.75% and 4.75% [3] Group 3 - The weakening of the dollar due to rising deficits, debt costs, and tariff uncertainties makes unhedged local currency bonds more attractive [4] Group 4 - Despite market volatility, credit fundamentals remain robust, and rising yields enhance the attractiveness of bonds, with expectations for moderate excess returns in the credit market [5] - Bonds have demonstrated stability during stock market turmoil, providing safety and stable returns, with a return to typical low correlation between stocks and bonds [5] - Historical data suggests that when bond yields are between 4% and 6% and stock valuations are high (P/E ratio over 23), bonds tend to outperform stocks over the next decade [6] Group 5 - In the context of increasing interest rate uncertainty, investors can achieve smoother return curves by balancing short-term positions with long-term allocations [7] - High-quality assets, such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and investment-grade corporate bonds, are particularly attractive as they provide stable income and diversify equity risk [7] - Given significant uncertainties in U.S. policy and a weakening dollar, investors can benefit from more stable and attractively valued international bond yield curves [7] - Fixed income assets remain appealing for long-term investors seeking stable returns and enhanced portfolio stability amid economic slowdown and rising downside risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies for dividend indices tailored to different investor needs, including those seeking monthly income, low volatility, long-term compounding, and higher returns [1][2]. Group 1: Monthly Dividend Income - Investors needing stable cash flow can consider holding a combination of Dividend Value ETF (563700), Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545), and Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) to achieve "monthly dividends" [2][3]. - This strategy is suitable for individuals with regular monthly expenses, such as rent or loan repayments, providing opportunities for consistent cash inflow [3]. Group 2: Low Volatility Preference - For risk-averse investors, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) and Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) are recommended due to their low volatility and strong drawdown control [2][3]. - The Dividend Value ETF (563700) combines high dividends with low valuations, allowing investors to purchase high-yield stocks at relatively lower prices [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Wealth Accumulation - Long-term wealth accumulators can opt for the Dividend ETF E Fund (515180), which offers annual dividends, allowing for reinvestment to enhance compounding effects [5][6]. - The core of compounding is reinvesting dividend income to increase principal, thereby generating more returns over time [6]. Group 4: Higher Returns Beyond Dividends - For investors seeking higher returns, a combination of Dividend ETFs and growth-themed ETFs, such as Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) and Robotics ETF E Fund (159530), is suggested [6][7]. - This strategy aims to balance stability from dividends with growth potential from high-growth sectors, forming a "barbell strategy" that mitigates volatility in the short term while targeting excess returns in the long term [6][7]. Group 5: Investment Suitability - The article emphasizes that there is no universally best investment strategy; rather, investors should choose combinations that align with their goals and circumstances [8].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanji New Opportunities Value-Driven A (161910) reported a profit of 95,400 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0057 yuan, indicating a net value growth rate of 0.33% during the period [3] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.721 yuan, with a fund size of 28.77 million yuan [3][16] - The fund's performance over various time frames is as follows: - Last 3 months: -0.25%, ranking 858 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last 6 months: -1.03%, ranking 835 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last year: -3.58%, ranking 850 out of 880 comparable funds [4] - Last 3 years: -21.02%, ranking 627 out of 871 comparable funds [4] Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the last 3 years is -0.3109, ranking 733 out of 874 comparable funds [9] - The maximum drawdown over the last 3 years is 27.53%, ranking 663 out of 864 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown recorded at 19.63% in Q1 2020 [11] Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a cautious approach towards the equity market, maintaining a focus on the domestic technology chain and employing a barbell strategy that includes defensive dividend stocks and technology manufacturing companies [3] - The average stock position over the last 3 years was 71.71%, compared to the industry average of 80.33%, with a peak of 92.64% at the end of 2019 and a low of 9.26% at the end of Q1 2025 [14] Holdings Concentration - As of Q2 2025, the fund has a high concentration in its top ten holdings, which include Agricultural Bank of China, Northern Huachuang, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Zhongwei Company, Yangtze Power, Chipone Technology, Haiguang Information, Zhongke Feimeng, Dongfang Cable, and Tuojing Technology [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the dovish stance of the next potential Fed Chair and strong US economic data boosted US stocks. In China, GDP recovery exceeded expectations, indicating economic resilience, but industrial enterprise profits are currently low, leading the market to anticipate pro - growth policies. Under these circumstances, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can also be sustained. Key areas to focus on are large - financials and technology growth sectors, and for stock index futures, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 are recommended. The market index has stabilized above 3500 after several days of consolidation, showing signs of a rebound [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Overseas Overnight**: US economic data in June and July showed resilience. The former hawkish Fed governor Wash shifted to the rate - cut camp. Overnight, the dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, gold fell, crude oil rose, US stocks closed higher, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly [2][5]. - **Domestic Market Review**: On Thursday, the market showed a volatile rebound. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%. Due to the drag of heavy - weight sectors like banks, the market had a pattern where Shenzhen was stronger than Shanghai. Funds began to favor technology - growth stocks and brokerage stocks, which was beneficial for market sentiment, but there was no clear market leader. Military, communication, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, environmental protection, and public utilities sectors led the losses. There were 3535 rising stocks and 1609 falling stocks in the whole market [2][6]. - **Important News**: There were various news items including tariff policies, Fed officials' remarks on interest rates, Trump's call for Fed rate cuts, responses from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance's adjustment of luxury car consumption tax, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's statement on the banking system [7][12]. - **Today's Strategy**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, the A - share market can continue its structural行情, and the dumbbell strategy can be sustained. Focus on large - financials, technology growth, and the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [13]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided, along with information on their contract delivery dates and remaining times [15]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on trading volumes, trading volume changes, open interests, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts were presented, including the overall situation and that of each specific contract [16]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Information on the current points, daily, weekly, and monthly price changes, trading volumes, and other indicators of various stock market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others was provided, as well as data on different sectors [38]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on major stock indices (Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) was analyzed, including the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [39][40]. - **Valuation**: Valuation data and historical quantile information of major stock indices and Shenwan sectors were presented [42][45]. - **Other Market Indicators**: Information on market average daily trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases was provided [47][51]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rates was presented, but specific data was mainly in graphical form [53][54].

huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 17 日，万得全 A 震荡上涨，收涨 0.94%，超 6 成个股飘红；指数现货方 面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 0.68%、0.12%、1.08%、 1.14%。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、0.40%、 1.40%、1.47%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a balanced investment strategy using a "half-position" approach, which aims to mitigate market risks while capturing opportunities, achieving a balance between risk and return [3]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The proposed asset allocation consists of 50% fixed income, 45% equities, and 5% commodities, which is designed to optimize risk and return [3]. - The "Three-Part Method" is introduced, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification through systematic investment [4]. Group 2: Fixed Income Allocation - The fixed income portion is divided into 50% allocation, with 40% in Chinese bonds and 10% in U.S. bonds [5]. - The rationale for favoring Chinese bonds over U.S. bonds includes lower price volatility and reduced currency risk, despite U.S. bonds offering higher yields [7][8]. - Specific funds within the fixed income category include: - 15% in Guangfa 7-10 Year National Development Bonds Index A - 15% in Bosera Credit Bond Pure Debt A - 10% in E Fund China Bond New Composite Index A - 5% each in Morgan Overseas Stable Allocation Mixed and Bank of China U.S. Dollar Bond [8]. Group 3: Equity Allocation - The equity allocation of 45% employs a "barbell strategy," with equal weight given to high-growth sectors (e.g., technology, new energy) and stable dividend-paying stocks [13]. - Domestic equity is favored over overseas equity based on valuation metrics, with the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the China Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology at 21.46, compared to 35.15 for the Nasdaq 100 [13]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The commodity allocation is set at 5%, primarily focused on gold, reflecting a strategy to hedge against global currency instability [18]. - The specific allocation within commodities includes 1% in Guotai Gold ETF, and 2% each in Guotai Commodity and Yinhua Anti-Inflation Theme, with gold comprising approximately 3% of the total commodity allocation [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Execution - The article suggests a high-frequency systematic investment approach, such as daily or weekly investments, to accumulate shares in overseas assets, especially during market downturns [20]. - Dynamic rebalancing is recommended when asset allocation deviates by 5% or more, which typically requires significant market movements to occur [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dividend distributions of two ETFs managed by China Merchants Fund, highlighting the strong performance of dividend stocks in both A-share and Hong Kong markets, and the evolving strategies in dividend investment [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - China Merchants Fund's two ETFs, the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (code: 159209) and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (code: 520550), have recently implemented dividend distributions, with the former distributing a cash dividend of 0.003 yuan per share (0.3% dividend ratio) and the latter distributing 0.004 yuan per share (0.35% dividend ratio) [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF's linked funds (Class A 024029/Class C 024030) have opened for subscription and regular investment since July 14 [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current market has developed two main dividend investment strategies: - Deep Value Strategy, represented by the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF, which tracks the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, focusing on "high dividend + low volatility" factors, with a current dividend yield exceeding 8% [1]. - Value Growth Strategy, represented by the CSI Dividend Quality ETF, which emphasizes "high dividend + high profitability quality," selecting high-quality fundamentals in sectors like consumer and pharmaceuticals, with historical data showing long-term returns outperforming mainstream indices [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest a dynamic balance in dividend investment opportunities, allowing investors to choose based on their risk preferences. Conservative investors may focus on the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF, while aggressive investors may consider the CSI Dividend Quality ETF [2]. - For portfolio allocation, a "barbell strategy" is recommended to dynamically adjust the proportion of the two types of products, with periodic rebalancing suggested [2]. - Both ETFs utilize a monthly assessment dividend mechanism, enhancing cash flow experience for investors while effectively controlling holding costs through a low fee structure [2].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index has outperformed major global indices with a 32.29% increase from September 24 to July 11, 2024, while US stocks have lagged due to new tariffs and reduced risk appetite [1] - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a cumulative net purchase of nearly 450 billion HKD, accounting for over 95% of the total net purchases in 2024, and the proportion of southbound trading in total Hong Kong stock trading has reached 60% [3] - The focus of recent southbound investments includes companies like China Construction Bank, SMIC, and Meituan, categorized into high-dividend assets and undervalued technology stocks, reflecting a global trend towards a "barbell" investment strategy [3] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology 50 ETF (159750) has shown strong performance, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of only 19, indicating it is undervalued compared to 99% of the past year [5] - The top ten Chinese technology companies within the ETF have significant weightings, with Xiaomi Group at 10.78%, Tencent Holdings at 9.85%, and Alibaba at 9.21% [5] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has increased by 21.32% year-to-date and has maintained a steady inflow of funds for 20 consecutive weeks, with a current dividend yield exceeding 8% [6][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The main driving force is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, and the market risk preference is positive recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Driving Logic of Main Variety Price Quotes - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday and reference views of IF, IH, IC, and IM are oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. Last Friday, the stock indexes oscillated and rose, with a total market turnover of 1736.6 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet and large - finance sectors led the gains, and both technology and dividends in the "dumbbell strategy" were favored. Since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly due to policy benefit expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and there is a need for more policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations. The market risk preference is positive, and the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4]