Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is continuously increasing its investment in China, with significant inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong bullish sentiment despite recent market fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - As of August 18, southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of over 940 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high [1][5]. - Analysts predict that the total net inflow for the year could exceed 1.2 trillion HKD, which is expected to support the upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market [1][6]. Group 2: Market Performance Comparison - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market since mid-June, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing maximum gains of 33% and 49% respectively in the first half of the year [4]. - Despite the recent downturn in the Hong Kong market, southbound capital has accelerated its buying pace, with a record single-day net purchase of 358.76 billion HKD on August 15 [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Current investment strategies among southbound capital focus on two main areas: undervalued, high-dividend assets and technology-related assets [10][12]. - Institutional investors are generally optimistic about high-dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market, emphasizing the importance of value and growth expectations in their investment principles [11][12]. Group 4: Sector Preferences - The preference for low-valuation, high-dividend assets is evident among insurance funds, while retail and private equity investors are leaning towards short-term improvement stocks, such as new consumption sectors [10][12]. - The technology sector, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, is also gaining attention due to its growth potential and scarcity in the market [12].

Core Viewpoint - Active funds have significantly outperformed the market this year, with a year-to-date return of 13.94% for mixed equity funds, compared to 8.28% for passive index funds and only 3.05% for the CSI 300 index [3]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - As of August 1, the mixed equity fund index has a year-to-date return of 13.94%, which is substantially higher than the passive index fund index at 8.28% and the CSI 300 index at 3.05% [3]. - The performance of various indices shows that the CSI 500 index has a year-to-date return of 8.51%, while the ChiNext index has 8.45% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Active Fund Performance - The resurgence of active funds is attributed to multiple factors, including the dominance of growth styles, contributions from Hong Kong stock allocations, and the performance of small-cap strategies [5]. - Growth style has become the leading force in the market, supported by government policies favoring emerging industries, particularly in technology [7][8]. - Active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, reaching a historical peak with a market value of 437.9 billion yuan, up 6.5% from the previous quarter [11][12]. Group 3: Small-Cap Strategies - The micro-cap stock index has seen a year-to-date increase of 51%, with the North Stock 50 and CSI 2000 indices also showing significant gains of 36.79% and 20.99%, respectively [15]. Group 4: Historical Performance of Active Funds - Historical data indicates that active funds tend to outperform passive index funds in years of market uptrends, with notable years being 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 [17]. - In contrast, during market downturns, such as in 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023, active funds have consistently underperformed [18]. - Despite recent underperformance in bear markets, active funds are expected to leverage their advantages in bull markets, potentially leading to long-term outperformance against index funds [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active with a highly structured sector rotation, significantly influenced by abundant liquidity and the role of southbound capital, which has become increasingly critical in driving market trends [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Dynamics - Year-to-date, southbound net inflows have reached 797.45 billion HKD, nearing last year's total of 807.87 billion HKD [2]. - The proportion of active public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks has increased from 25.8% at the end of last year to 32.5%, contributing approximately 10-15% of the total southbound inflow [2]. - Overall public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks have risen from 30.5% to around 39.8%, with a net increase of approximately 2,200-2,800 billion HKD year-to-date [2][3]. Group 2: Fund Structure and Performance - The total number of public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks has reached 4,048, with total assets of 2.62 trillion RMB, reflecting a significant increase in both the number of funds and total assets [3][4]. - Active equity funds have seen their Hong Kong stock holdings rise to a record high of 32.5%, while their proportion in southbound capital has decreased, indicating they are not the main drivers of southbound flows [4][5]. - The concentration of holdings among top stocks has decreased, with the top three stocks accounting for 30.9% of the market value of the top 100 stocks, down from 39.8% [6][33]. Group 3: Sector Preferences and Trends - The healthcare and financial sectors have gained the most favor, while retail and media entertainment sectors have seen the most significant declines [5][32]. - The market has shown a shift towards traditional sectors, with the market value of old economy stocks increasing from 20.7% to 22.9%, while new economy stocks have seen a decline [5][32]. - Individual stocks such as Innovent Biologics and Triple Point have seen the most significant increases in fund holdings, while Alibaba and Tencent have experienced notable reductions [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Southbound capital inflows are expected to exceed 1 trillion HKD this year, with a more certain increment of 200-300 billion HKD anticipated [7]. - The market has recently broken upward, with the Hang Seng Index potentially reaching 26,000 points, driven by factors such as the recovery of the internet sector and cyclical stocks [8][9]. - The current market environment suggests that buying during low periods may be more advantageous than chasing during high periods, advocating for a "new dumbbell" strategy in asset allocation [11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on July 7, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.36%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.46%, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.38% [1] - Technology stocks, including Alibaba and Xiaomi, saw declines of over 1% [1] Future Market Outlook - Guoyuan Hong Kong anticipates potential policy measures to support the market in response to tariff impacts, expecting resilience in the long-term valuation of Hong Kong stocks [2] - According to CMB International, as of the end of June, the Hang Seng Index approached its yearly high, driven mainly by a decline in risk premiums, with limited contributions from fundamental earnings improvements [2] - Southbound capital has shown a strategic increase in holdings across various sectors, particularly in healthcare and finance, reflecting a focus on high-growth sectors and defensive high-dividend stocks [2] - CITIC Securities predicts that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance asset quality and liquidity, with continued inflow of Southbound funds [3] - Huatai Fund suggests a "volatile upward + structural differentiation" trend for the Hong Kong market in the second half of the year, driven by macro policies focusing on high-quality development and domestic demand [3] IPO Market Trends - There is an increasing presence of local state-owned enterprises as cornerstone investors in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a return of long-term capital to the market [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures affecting the procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, which may impact related sectors [4] ETF Market Development - The number of ETFs included in the mutual connectivity scheme has reached 265, with a significant increase in Southbound fund inflows benefiting Hong Kong ETFs [4] Company News - New China Life Insurance plans to invest 11.25 billion yuan in a private equity fund [7] - China Overseas Development reported a contract sales figure of approximately 120.15 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% [7] - GAC Group's cumulative sales for the first half of the year were 755,300 units, down 12.48% year-on-year [7] - Xinli International reported a cumulative revenue of approximately 8.098 billion HKD for the first half of the year, a decrease of about 5.7% year-on-year [7]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 4 日 今日焦点 | 港股策略 | | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从多空两维看港股配置方向 | | 宏观策略 | | | 年初至今 | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | | | 恒指 | 24,070 | -0.71 | 16.49 | 2025 上半年港股表现亮眼，恒指和恒生科技指数分别录得 20%和 18.7% 的半年度收益，位居全球主要股指前列。本篇报告从内外资配置偏好变 化以及卖空仓位分布等维度，系统梳理资金流向的一致性与分歧点： 南向资金：均衡配置中的结构性倾斜。南向资金年初至今对港股各板块 持仓均有提升，板块轮动更为显著，从 1 季度的信息技术，再到 2 季度 初的新消费，以及近一个月的主力配置方向集中在医疗保健和金融板块。 外资：聚焦科技。相比之下，外资仅边际主动提升信息技术板块仓位， 其他板块持仓市值多数下降。对科技板块的偏好选择可能反映其对港股 科技企业长期竞争力和估值修复空间的看好。 卖 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks have a relatively high medium to long-term allocation value due to their low absolute valuation and historical mid-to-high valuation percentiles [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector continues to present significant investment opportunities, supported by favorable policies, strong profit growth, and low historical valuations, indicating substantial future upside potential [1] - The consumer sector is expected to see improved earnings growth due to domestic consumption stimulus policies, with undervalued Hong Kong consumer stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption industries, likely to rise [1] - High dividend stocks can provide investors with stable returns amid domestic and international uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on May 30, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing significant declines, while gold stocks rose collectively and pharmaceutical stocks saw broad gains [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index downward, dropping over 2%, with major declines in stocks like NetEase, Sunny Optical Technology, BYD Electronics, and Lenovo, while Li Auto saw a counter trend increase of over 7% [1] - Huatai Securities suggests that investors should strategically focus on the Hong Kong market, noting that while short-term factors like tariff issues and high US Treasury yields may disrupt market performance, the risk premium and tail risks in the Hong Kong economy are easing, indicating an upward adjustment in the market [1] Group 2 - The liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market has improved relative to the A-share market, as evidenced by the listing of CATL, with further improvement expected [2] - Concerns over liquidity that have led to a discount of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares are anticipated to narrow, particularly for large-cap, high-weight stocks, indicating potential for improvement in AH premiums [2] - The technology and consumer sectors now represent a significant portion of the Hong Kong market, suggesting a shift from the previous dominance of finance and real estate, with performance growth potentially reshaping valuation frameworks [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) leads in both scale and liquidity among its peers in the A-share market, supporting T+0 trading [3] - The ETF combines hard technology and new consumption attributes, demonstrating resilience amid external disturbances, with a focus on AI core assets and major players like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, and SMIC [3] - Over half of the ETF's weight is in sectors such as e-commerce, automotive, home appliances, and travel, including companies like NIO, Li Auto, Xiaomi, Lenovo, and leading home appliance brands like Haier and Midea [3]

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in AI-related theme funds contrasts with the strong performance of certain Hong Kong stock funds, with the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selected Fund leading the public fund performance this year [1] - Several Hong Kong theme funds and equity funds with heavy Hong Kong stock holdings have achieved returns exceeding 30% year-to-date, indicating a potential shift in investment focus towards Hong Kong stocks [1] - As of May 26, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 16.06% this year, outperforming several major A-share indices, which have seen declines during the same period [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are at a historical medium level, and recommend investors focus on sectors such as technology, durable consumer goods, and defense industries [2] - The report highlights the potential benefits for sectors impacted by new regulations on major asset restructurings, particularly for central state-owned enterprises and technology companies [2]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 开年以来港股已迈入技术性牛市，A股整体处于震荡。南下资金流入汹涌，开年至今，净流入已近4 0 0 0亿港元。如果没有制度限制，港股应在中 国股票资产中占据几成比例方为合理？我们认为，4 0%- 5 0%或是合意水平。因此，对大量机构投资者特别是公募基金来说，港股仍有较大增配 空间。 ▍ 从主要涵盖沪港深三地市场的指数看，港股占比均超过4 0%。 截至2 0 2 5年3月1 6日，我们统计了以下重要指数的港股市值占比情况：1）中证沪港深3 0 0指数和中证沪港深5 0 0指数，港股市值占比分别为 4 8%和4 5%。2）中华沪深港3 0 0指数中，港股市值占比为4 9%。3）MSCI Ch i n a指数中，港股市值占比超过6成，前十大成分股均为港股（包 括AH两地上市公司中的H股）和美股中概股，并无A股。 中美科技、贸易等领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期等。 ▍ 从港股A股的核心指数市值对比看，港股大致占比在4 5%以上。 截至2 0 2 5年3月1 6日，我们计算，1）如果以恒生指数/（恒生指数+沪深3 0 0）来看，大致市值占比为4 5%；2）如果以中证港股通5 ...