专题：2025基金年终大盘点：冠军基年内狂飙233%，主动权益重获主导，全行业规模逼近36万亿新高 2026年开年首周，公募基金发行市场全面启动。Wind数据显示，按认购起始日统计，截至1月7日，今 年1月已有82只新基金进入发行期，涵盖股票型（31只）、混合型（27只）、债券型与FOF基金（各11 只）。仅本周（1月5日至11日）就有48只产品密集启动认购。 | | | | 本周知发手变情况一流(15-111) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 46 Ra | 名称 | 认购起始日期 | 认购截止日期 | 认购天数 | 投资类型 | 管理公司 | | | 1 | 025025.06 | 万家启泰稳健三个月持有A | 50-10-9200 | 2026-01-05 | 1 | 据合亚FOF 亚赛 | 万家基金 | | | 2 | 025721.OF | | 2026-01-05 | 2026-01-21 | 17 | | | | | | | 中欧价值优进A | | | | 很股票合型基金 | 中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly through the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560), which has seen consistent net inflows and is being utilized in a "technology + dividend" barbell strategy [1][3][4] - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 90.15 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor confidence in the future performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a "valuation bottom + liquidity bottom + sentiment bottom" forming a strategic configuration window for investments, with low valuations providing a safety margin and capital inflows validating trend reversals [3] Group 2 - In the consumer sector of the Hong Kong stock market, notable performers include Pop Mart with a rise of over 2%, and both Nongfu Spring and Anta Sports increasing by more than 1% [1] - In the technology sector, Meituan has risen by over 1%, while Tencent Holdings and Alibaba also showed positive performance [1] - The dividend sector saw China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation increase by over 1%, along with Agricultural Bank of China also performing well [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is designed to include a mix of high-growth technology stocks like Alibaba and Tencent, alongside stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An Insurance, making it an ideal long-term investment tool [4] - The ETF operates under a "T+0 mechanism," allowing for flexible trading, which enhances its attractiveness for investors looking for stability and growth [4] - The strategic recommendation from Guangfa Securities suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, with stable value assets as a long-term base and growth assets that have solid industrial logic [3]

今日（12月17日）自带"科技+红利"哑铃策略的——香港大盘30ETF（520560）场内涨幅盘中摸高0.77%，现涨0.33%，与此同时，抄底资金坚定加仓！香港 大盘30ETF（520560）近10日每日均有资金净流入，合计金额9015万元，反映资金看好港股后市表现，积极运用哑铃策略进行布局！ 中国银河证券表示，美联储持续降息，美元走弱预期会推动港元利率中枢下行，同时还能推动外资回流，双重作用将有效改善港股的流动性，进一步带动港 股整体向好。 业内人士指出，当前港股市场正处在一个由"估值底+资金底+情绪底"共振形成的黄金三角布局期。低估值提供安全边际，资金流入验证趋势反转，高弹性 则赋予超额收益潜力。三者叠加，构成了近年来少有的战略性配置窗口。 展望后市，调整后的港股性价比更优，科技和红利方向均有机会，核心资产的中长期配置价值值得重点关注。配置上，广发证券建议采用哑铃策略，港股稳 定价值类资产作为底仓长期配置，港股景气成长类资产的产业逻辑依然坚实，震荡中孕育机会。 看好港股科技但又希望降低波动？关注全市场首只——香港大盘30ETF（520560）及其联接基金【联接A（LOF）501301；联接C 00635 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting the impact of economic conditions on deal-making activities and the overall performance of investment banks [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Investment banking activities have seen a decline in the first half of the year, with a significant drop in M&A transactions, down by 30% compared to the previous year [1] - The IPO market remains sluggish, with only 50 IPOs completed in the first half, raising a total of $5 billion, a decrease of 40% year-on-year [1] - Economic uncertainty and rising interest rates are cited as major factors affecting the investment banking landscape, leading to cautious behavior among clients [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Major investment banks reported mixed earnings, with some firms experiencing a decline in revenue while others managed to maintain stable performance [1] - The article notes that firms focusing on advisory services have fared better, as companies seek guidance in navigating the challenging market environment [1] - Cost-cutting measures have been implemented by several banks to maintain profitability amidst declining revenues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar in 2023, attributing it to various factors including high US fiscal deficits, changes in Federal Reserve policies, and concerns over the safety of dollar assets, leading to a shift in global capital flows towards emerging markets, particularly Chinese assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for the Weak Dollar - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence and promotion of reciprocal tariffs has triggered a crisis of confidence in the dollar, undermining its institutional trust [5]. - The "weak dollar" policy is a strategic tool for Trump to stimulate manufacturing and export competitiveness, sacrificing some short-term dollar credibility for long-term goals [5]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" has become mainstream, with significant increases in foreign exchange derivatives hedging demand and a rise in dollar short positions among global investors [6][7]. Group 2: Impact of Weak Dollar on Emerging Markets - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets, including China, tend to perform well, indicating a negative correlation between the dollar index and emerging market indices [13][15]. - The A-share market benefits from a relatively stable or appreciating RMB during weak dollar periods, attracting foreign capital inflows [15][18]. Group 3: Investment Themes in a Weak Dollar Environment - Investment opportunities in Chinese assets include: - Technology growth assets, which are expected to gain value during weak dollar periods, with a focus on long-term growth and scarcity [20]. - Hong Kong stocks, benefiting from global liquidity and domestic profit improvements [20]. - Dividend and low-valuation sectors such as banking and insurance, which are attractive in a high-low market switch [20]. - Funds related to physical assets like copper, gold, and oil, which are prioritized during weak dollar cycles [20]. - Overall, the weak dollar represents not only a current market reality but also a long-term logic for global capital reallocation and institutional credit reassessment, with Chinese assets showing strong appeal due to solid fundamentals and low valuations [21].

Core Insights - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has exceeded 1 trillion HKD this year, marking a record high since the launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 [1][3] - The continuous net inflow of southbound funds indicates a growing demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong stocks, with a total inflow of approximately 4.7 trillion HKD since the launch of the Stock Connect [3] Inflow Trends - As of September 2, 2023, the net inflow of southbound funds reached approximately 1,000.22 billion HKD, with a single-day inflow of 9.281 billion HKD [1][3] - The annual net inflow has shown a consistent upward trend, with significant increases noted in 2015 (127.18 billion HKD), 2017 (339.94 billion HKD), and peaks in 2020 (672.13 billion HKD) and 2021 (454.39 billion HKD) [3] Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for southbound capital inflow in 2025 from 110 billion USD to 160 billion USD, approximately 1.25 trillion HKD [4] - The daily trading volume of southbound funds has increased from around 5% at the beginning of the Stock Connect to approximately 36% currently, indicating enhanced liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4] Investment Preferences - Key factors driving the inflow include the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks, high dividend yields, and unique investment opportunities in sectors like technology and new consumption [5] - The top ten stocks with the highest net purchases by southbound funds include Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, reflecting a preference for companies with global competitiveness and stable cash flows [6] Sector Focus - Southbound funds are primarily concentrated in the financial, technology, and biopharmaceutical sectors, driven by stable dividend yields, low valuations, and strong growth potential [7] - The influx of southbound capital is reshaping the investment landscape in Hong Kong, enhancing the influence of mainland investors on market pricing and expectations [7][8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong market will experience a significant growth phase driven by technological innovation and capital inflow, with a potential recovery in valuation and profit expectations [8] - The shift from retail to institutional investors in southbound capital is expected to enhance the professional investment capabilities and value discovery in the market [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.64% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.99%, with major tech stocks collectively increasing, including JD.com up nearly 3%, Baidu up 2.3%, Xiaomi up nearly 2%, Alibaba up over 1%, and Kuaishou up 0.77% [1] - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,547 per ounce, leading to strong performance in gold stocks, with Tongguan Gold and Chifeng Gold rising over 5% [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO and Li Auto both increasing over 3% [1] Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a fourth consecutive month of gains in August, driven by southbound capital inflows, improved market sentiment, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2][3] - There is a strong net inflow of southbound capital, and external funding conditions are improving, although concerns about the fundamentals remain [3] - The potential for foreign capital to return to Hong Kong stocks is heightened under the Fed's anticipated rate cut, particularly favoring technology and financial sectors [3] Investment Opportunities - The overall profitability of Hong Kong stocks is relatively strong, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals being relatively scarce [3] - Despite recent gains, the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low, suggesting a favorable long-term investment outlook [3] - The deepening of the Hong Kong listing system reform is expected to enhance asset quality and liquidity in the market [4] Company News - WuXi AppTec (02268) plans to place 23 million shares to raise HKD 1.31 billion, with a placement price of HKD 58.85 per share [6] - NIO (09866) reported Q2 automotive sales of RMB 16.1361 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with revenue of approximately RMB 19.009 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6] - NIO's Q3 revenue guidance is set between RMB 21.81 billion and RMB 22.88 billion, marking a historical high [6]

Group 1 - The Chief Investment Officer of China Life, Liu Hui, stated that the newly approved QDII quota will focus significantly on the Hong Kong stock market, which is a crucial component of equity investment allocation [1] - In the first half of the year, the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market has been continuously recovering, leading global major equity indices in terms of growth [1] - Amid the global capital rebalancing, the Hong Kong stock market possesses allocation value in high-quality assets such as new economy and high dividend stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is continuously increasing its investment in China, with significant inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong bullish sentiment despite recent market fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - As of August 18, southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of over 940 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high [1][5]. - Analysts predict that the total net inflow for the year could exceed 1.2 trillion HKD, which is expected to support the upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market [1][6]. Group 2: Market Performance Comparison - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market since mid-June, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing maximum gains of 33% and 49% respectively in the first half of the year [4]. - Despite the recent downturn in the Hong Kong market, southbound capital has accelerated its buying pace, with a record single-day net purchase of 358.76 billion HKD on August 15 [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Current investment strategies among southbound capital focus on two main areas: undervalued, high-dividend assets and technology-related assets [10][12]. - Institutional investors are generally optimistic about high-dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market, emphasizing the importance of value and growth expectations in their investment principles [11][12]. Group 4: Sector Preferences - The preference for low-valuation, high-dividend assets is evident among insurance funds, while retail and private equity investors are leaning towards short-term improvement stocks, such as new consumption sectors [10][12]. - The technology sector, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, is also gaining attention due to its growth potential and scarcity in the market [12].

Core Viewpoint - Active funds have significantly outperformed the market this year, with a year-to-date return of 13.94% for mixed equity funds, compared to 8.28% for passive index funds and only 3.05% for the CSI 300 index [3]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - As of August 1, the mixed equity fund index has a year-to-date return of 13.94%, which is substantially higher than the passive index fund index at 8.28% and the CSI 300 index at 3.05% [3]. - The performance of various indices shows that the CSI 500 index has a year-to-date return of 8.51%, while the ChiNext index has 8.45% [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Active Fund Performance - The resurgence of active funds is attributed to multiple factors, including the dominance of growth styles, contributions from Hong Kong stock allocations, and the performance of small-cap strategies [5]. - Growth style has become the leading force in the market, supported by government policies favoring emerging industries, particularly in technology [7][8]. - Active equity funds have increased their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, reaching a historical peak with a market value of 437.9 billion yuan, up 6.5% from the previous quarter [11][12]. Group 3: Small-Cap Strategies - The micro-cap stock index has seen a year-to-date increase of 51%, with the North Stock 50 and CSI 2000 indices also showing significant gains of 36.79% and 20.99%, respectively [15]. Group 4: Historical Performance of Active Funds - Historical data indicates that active funds tend to outperform passive index funds in years of market uptrends, with notable years being 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 [17]. - In contrast, during market downturns, such as in 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023, active funds have consistently underperformed [18]. - Despite recent underperformance in bear markets, active funds are expected to leverage their advantages in bull markets, potentially leading to long-term outperformance against index funds [20].