Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/6/5 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F30825507, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number Z0020723 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were short - strong and long - weak. The yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declined by about 0.35 - 2bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rose by about 0.7bp to 1.68% and 1.90% respectively. Treasury bond futures also showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern, with TS and TF rising by 0.04% and 0.02% respectively, and T and TL contracts falling by 0.01% and 0.16% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.55%. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in May stopped falling and rebounded, and the service PMI remained in the expansion range. With the suspension of high tariffs between China and the US in May, industrial activities improved marginally, and the economy stabilized. Overseas, the growth momentum in the US weakened, with the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs in May falling more than expected and below the boom - bust line, and the growth of ADP employment in May slowing significantly. The market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut may be adjusted to September. The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiations has been basically digested. The bond market is driven by the capital and fundamental aspects, and there are no clear positive or negative factors in the short term. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and capital changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T主力收盘价108.720, down 0.01%; TF主力收盘价106.030, up 0.02%; TS主力收盘价102.430, up 0.04%; TL主力收盘价119.310, down 0.16%. T主力成交量64481, up 8772; TF主力成交量73198, up 27197; TS主力成交量49003, up 17801; TL主力成交量66642, down 3618 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: TL2509 - 2506价差0.59, down 0.16; T2509 - 2506价差0.17, down 0.08; TF2509 - 2506价差0.28, down 0.00; TS2509 - 2506价差0.14, down 0.00; T06 - TL06价差 - 10.17, up 0.13; TF06 - T06价差 - 2.80, down 0.03; TS06 - T06价差 - 6.26, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06价差 - 3.46, up 0.04 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量169240, down 405; TF主力持仓量144273, down 872; TS主力持仓量116473, down 726; TL主力持仓量93443, down 14. T前20名多头165766, down 1024; T前20名空头166255, down 963; T前20名净空仓489, up 61; TF前20名多头133649, up 3149; TF前20名空头152140, up 5592; TF前20名净空仓18491, up 2443; TS前20名多头88090, up 2; TS前20名空头104205, up 1211; TS前20名净空仓16115, up 1209; TL前20名多头88807, up 739; TL前20名空头94156, down 292; TL前20名净空仓5349, down 1031 [2]. 2. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds changed, such as 2500802.IB(6y) rising 0.0002 to 99.4137, 250007.IB(6y) rising 0.0161 to 99.0955, etc [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bonds decreased by 1.00bp, 1.75bp, 1.90bp, 0.90bp, 0.50bp respectively, reaching 1.4525%, 1.4700%, 1.5260%, 1.6210%, 1.6710% [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 1.84bp to 1.4016%, Shibor overnight remained unchanged at 1.4080%; the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 6.46bp to 1.5646%, Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.90bp to 1.5340%; the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 0.92bp to 1.5892%, Shibor 14 - day increased by 1.50bp to 1.5910% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a issuance scale of 1265 billion, a maturity scale of 2660 billion, a net withdrawal of 1395 billion, and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 5. Industry News - In May, the Caixin China Services PMI was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of service - sector operations. New service orders increased, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but costs and selling prices moved in opposite directions, putting pressure on corporate profits [2]. - The chief lawyer of the CSRC stated that the CSRC will fully implement the new development concept, deepen the reform of the science - finance system and mechanism in the capital market, give full play to the functions of the multi - tiered capital market, promote the in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small and medium - sized investors, and support the development of technological innovation and new - quality productivity [2]. - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson refuted this, stating that China is firm in safeguarding its rights and honest in implementing the consensus. The US has unilaterally provoked new economic and trade frictions, increasing the uncertainty and instability of bilateral economic and trade relations. China firmly rejects the US's unfounded accusations and urges the US to correct its wrong actions [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On June 5, at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest - rate decision; at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31 will be released. On June 6, at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China-US tariff negotiations has basically been digested. The bond market is now driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and capital flow changes. Given the recent significant underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long - term bonds due to short - term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts closed down 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively, while the TL main contract closed up 0.03%. T, TF, and TL main contract volumes decreased by 19,601, 7,839, and 10,208 respectively, and the TS main contract volume increased by 2,847 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads showed upward or downward trends, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread increasing by 0.08 and the T2509 - 2506 spread decreasing by 0.01 [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 2,657, 1,366, 2,271, and 611 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, and TL decreased, while that of TS increased [2] 3.2 Bond Information - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: Some CTD bond net prices rose and some fell, for example, 240020.IB (4y) rose by 0.1243 and 250007.IB (6y) fell by 0.0644 [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds decreased by 2.00bp, 3.00bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, and 1.25bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 14.56bp, 17.00bp, and 13.00bp respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 6.10bp, 10.20bp, and 16.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 454.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 830 billion yuan, and the net回笼 was 375.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point; and comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions [2] - In May, the central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 4th, 20:15: US May ADP employment (in ten thousand people) - June 4th, 22:00: US May ISM non - manufacturing PMI - June 5th, 20:15: European Central Bank's interest rate decision - June 5th, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31st (in ten thousand people) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Thursday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1.75 - 2.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 1.40bp to 1.70% and 1.94% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly falling by 0.06%, 0.15%, 0.26%, and 0.65% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.64%. Domestically, the economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly declining, fixed - asset investment shrinking, industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to recover, but low prices still suppressed profits. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real - estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade - friction - induced risk - aversion sentiment. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected increase in tariff friction led to an unexpected rebound in exports, and there were continuous expectations of intensified fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI and consumer confidence index in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit claims declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and the Fed's May meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards monetary policy, with the rate - cut timing possibly postponed to July. In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations of a long - term bull market for bonds, but in the short term, due to the阶段性 results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of rate - cut and reserve - requirement - ratio - cut benefits, market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly cooled, and the bond market has weakened. Given the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract: The closing price was 108.475, down 0.26%; the trading volume was 72,334, an increase of 22,505 [2]. - TF main contract: The closing price was 105.870, down 0.15%; the trading volume was 57,177, an increase of 12,439 [2]. - TS main contract: The closing price was 102.346, down 0.06%; the trading volume was 32,722, an increase of 5,637 [2]. - TL main contract: The closing price was 118.690, down 0.65%; the trading volume was 94,531, an increase of 33,864 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.68, down 0.10; T06 - TL06 spread was - 9.76, up 0.39 [2]. - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, down 0.04; TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.69, up 0.07 [2]. - TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.30, unchanged; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.07, up 0.18 [2]. - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.17, down 0.02; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.39, up 0.11 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract: The open interest was 166,334, down 24,473; the long positions of the top 20 were 163,702, down 16,357; the short positions of the top 20 were 166,204, down 19,797; the net short positions of the top 20 were 2,502, down 3,440 [2]. - TF main contract: The open interest was 138,906, down 13,370; the long positions of the top 20 were 130,021, down 4,663; the short positions of the top 20 were 143,527, down 6,523; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,506, down 1,860 [2]. - TS main contract: The open interest was 110,993, down 10,251; the long positions of the top 20 were 88,534, up 2,364; the short positions of the top 20 were 101,879, down 4,215; the net short positions of the top 20 were 13,345, down 6,579 [2]. - TL main contract: The open interest was 95,648, down 18,295; the long positions of the top 20 were 89,398, down 10,631; the short positions of the top 20 were 93,471, down 7,129; the net short positions of the top 20 were 4,073, up 3,502 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 250007.IB (6y): The price was 100.862, down 0.2098; 220017.IB (6y): The price was 99.0955, down 0.1698 [2]. - 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.7533, down 0.1486; 240020.IB (4y): The price was 100.8844, down 0.1221 [2]. - 250006.IB (1.7y): The price was 100.1695, down 0.0399; 240010.IB (1.9y): The price was 100.6711, down 0.0396 [2]. - 210005.IB (18y): The price was 134.4848, down 0.6714; 210014.IB (18y): The price was 130.8879, down 0.4259 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1 - year yield: 1.4600%, down 0.25bp; 3 - year yield: 1.4980%, up 0.30bp [2]. - 5 - year yield: 1.5400%, up 0.75bp; 7 - year yield: 1.6275%, up 0.65bp [2]. - 10 - year yield: 1.7050%, up 0.75bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate: 1.4187%, up 6.87bp; Shibor overnight: 1.4110%, unchanged [2]. - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.6450%, up 14.50bp; Shibor 7 - day: 1.6020%, up 2.40bp [2]. - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate: 1.7363%, up 5.63bp; Shibor 14 - day: 1.7440%, up 7.50bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year LPR: 3.00%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR: 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open - market Operations - The issuance scale was 266 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 154.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on June 4, including 3.5 billion yuan of 2 - year, 3 billion yuan of 3 - year, 3 billion yuan of 5 - year, and 3 billion yuan of 10 - year bonds [2]. - Since the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides have maintained communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels. China has repeatedly negotiated with the US regarding its abuse of export - control measures in the semiconductor field and urged the US to correct its wrong practices [2]. - On May 28 (local time), the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was an over - stepping of authority, and the Trump administration filed an appeal [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - On May 30 at 20:30, the US April core PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On May 30 at 22:00, the final value of the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3].

Group 1: Report General Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: May 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Market Data - **Treasury Futures Trading Data on May 27**: TL2506 settled at 118.700, down 0.300 (-0.25%); TL2509 at 119.450, down 0.310 (-0.26%); etc. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis 1. Market Conditions and Recommendations - **Market Conditions**: Funds not substantially loosened, market sentiment weak, treasury futures down slightly. Bank - interbank major term spot bond yields mostly up slightly, 10 - year bond 250004 yield at 1.6975%, up 0.75bp. Central bank net - injected funds, money market loose [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: April economic data weakened marginally but showed resilience, tariff issues in buffer period, short - term fundamentals stable, policy in observation period. Bond market in narrow - range oscillation, short - term may perform better considering post - peak supply of government bonds and stable funds [11] 2. Industry News - 1 - 4 months, national industrial enterprises' profit 2117.02 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year [12] - Foreign Ministry responded to "China debt responsibility theory" [12] - 2025 Lujiazui Forum to be held on June 18 - 19 [12] - Some provinces strengthen management of special bond funds [13] - Most banks' large - value certificate of deposit rates decline [13] - Many wealth management companies cut fees [13] - CFFEX to enrich treasury futures market participants [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Futures**: Covers futures contracts' spreads and trends [14][15][18][20][24] - **Money Market**: Includes SHIBOR and bank - interbank repurchase rates [27][31] - **Derivatives Market**: Involves Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw a collective decline in the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 0.5 - 1.05bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities rising by about 0.50 and 0.45bp to 1.70% and 1.91% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts slightly down by 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.11%, and 0.26% respectively. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average rate of DR007 dropped to around 1.62%. [2] - Domestically, economic data in April was stable, with retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data was divided, with government bonds supporting social financing, but weak credit due to real estate cooling, end - of - quarter bank impulse, and trade friction. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. Exports rebounded unexpectedly due to the export - rush effect under the expectation of tariff friction escalation, and there was a continuous increase in the expectation of fiscal and monetary policies for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US S&P Global Composite PMI in May rebounded unexpectedly, and the number of unemployment benefit applicants declined continuously. However, the actual US tariff rate remained at a historical high, and with the recent wavering of US - EU tariff policies, the market was still worried about US inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut might be postponed to July. [2] - In terms of strategy, there may still be expectations for a long - term bull market in bonds, but in the short term, due to the phased results of China - US tariff negotiations and the exhaustion of the benefits of interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts, market risk - aversion sentiment cooled significantly, and the bond market weakened in a volatile manner. Given the significant differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in long - term bonds due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.735 (-0.11%), 106.030 (-0.03%), 102.408 (-0.02%), and 119.460 (-0.26%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 6265 (up), - 4465 (down), 901 (up), and 3614 (up) respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: All spreads between different contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL showed a downward trend in the change of the spread value, while the spreads between different - maturity contracts such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. showed an upward trend. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of T, TS, and TL showed an upward or downward trend, while the net short position of TF decreased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds showed an upward or downward trend, such as 250007.IB (down 0.0775) and 2500802.IB (up 0.0001). [2] - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 7 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 3 - year bonds decreased, and the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds remained unchanged. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 1.44bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 5.40bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 8.83bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.90bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate decreased by 4.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 2.10bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 448 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 357 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The Chinese Ministry of Finance believed that this was a positive reflection of China's economic prospects. [2] - The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics", which proposed measures such as improving the enterprise income distribution system and promoting long - term incentives for listed companies. [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On May 28 at 22:00, the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May will be released. - On May 29 at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. - On May 29 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 24 will be announced. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - After the temporary agreement was reached in the China-US trade talks in Geneva and tariffs were significantly reduced, the market's risk appetite increased significantly, and the risk-aversion sentiment declined, leading to a full decline in treasury bonds and treasury bond futures. Investors expect that the easing of China-US relations will help stabilize the global economy and reduce the urgency for loose monetary policy. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stocks and the pressure of funds flowing out of the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased and the price of futures bonds decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the phased convergence of macro risk premiums [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.70% [8] - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.36%; M2 year-on-year was 7.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% and a decline rate of 2.97% [8] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 100.98, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.81 and a decline rate of 0.80%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1887, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.036 and a decline rate of 0.50%; SHIBOR 7-day was 1.49, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.40%; DR007 was 1.52, with a day-on-day increase of 0.02 and an increase rate of 1.26%; R007 was 1.76, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21 and a decline rate of 10.82%; the interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.61, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.62%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.11, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.62% [8] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on May 13, 2025, were 102.35 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.30 yuan respectively. The price changes of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.03%, -0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.13% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was -0.029 yuan, -0.039 yuan, -0.104 yuan, and -0.175 yuan respectively [1] III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - On May 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.406%, 1.490%, 1.556%, and 1.647% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [1] IV. Spread Overview - Not provided with specific data in the content, only mentions relevant spread trend charts such as the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread [37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][47][58] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][60][57] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [62][65] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [70][72][75] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of the repurchase interest rate and the fluctuation of the treasury bond futures price, the 2506 contract is neutral - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry Group 2 - After the Sino-US trade talks in Geneva reached a temporary agreement and significantly reduced tariffs, the market's risk appetite increased, and the safe-haven sentiment declined, leading to a full decline in national bonds and national bond futures. Investors expect the easing of Sino-US relations to help stabilize the global economy, reducing the urgency for loose monetary policies. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stock market and the pressure of capital outflow from the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased, and the price of bond futures decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the temporary convergence of macro risk premiums [2] Group 3 Unilateral strategy - The repo rate declined, and the price of national bond futures fluctuated. The 2506 contract was neutral [3] Arbitrage strategy - Focus on the widening of the basis [3] Hedging strategy - There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short sellers can moderately hedge using far-month contracts [3] Group 4 Interest rate pricing tracking indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.70%. The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan and a month-on-month increase rate of 1.36%. The M2 year-on-year growth rate was 7.00%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% and a month-on-month decrease rate of 2.97%. The US dollar index was 101.79, with a day-on-day increase of 1.38 and a day-on-day increase rate of 1.37%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 7.2246, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.026 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -0.35%. The SHIBOR 7-day rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.02 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -1.51%. The DR007 rate was 1.50%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.04 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -2.87%. The R007 rate was 1.76%, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21 and a day-on-day decrease rate of -10.82%. The 3M yield of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.62%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.01 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62%. The AA-AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.12%, with a day-on-day increase of 0.00 and a day-on-day increase rate of 0.62% [8] Group 5 National bonds and national bond futures market overview - The report includes multiple charts related to the national bond futures market, such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of national bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of national bond futures, the maturity yield trend of national bonds with various maturities, the one-day valuation change of national bonds with various maturities, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of national bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, etc. [13][15][17] Group 6 Money market capital situation - The report includes multiple charts related to the money market, such as the trading volume and position ratio of each variety of national bond futures, the bond lending turnover and total position volume of national bond futures, the spread between national development bonds and national bonds, the issuance of national bonds, etc. [27][23][25] Group 7 Spread situation - The report includes multiple charts related to spreads, such as the inter-period spread trend of each variety of national bond futures, the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross-variety spreads, etc. [37][41][42] Group 8 Two-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to two-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TS main contract, etc. [44][47] Group 9 Five-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to five-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TF main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [54][57] Group 10 Ten-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to ten-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the T main contract, the three-year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [66][68] Group 11 Thirty-year national bond futures - The report includes multiple charts related to thirty-year national bond futures, such as the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the TL main contract, the three-year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [73][78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On April 22, the yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.5 - 1.5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 1.5bp and 2.5bp to 1.64% and 1.87% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.01%, 0.07%, 0.17%, and 0.50% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.70%. - Domestically, in March, both the manufacturing and service industry PMIs were in the expansion range and increased month - on - month, indicating marginal improvement in the economy. The unemployment rate improved month - on - month, but price data remained weak, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year and PPI down 2.5% year - on - year. Financial data slightly exceeded expectations, with government bonds supporting social financing, but the financing willingness of the private sector still needed to be boosted. With policy front - loading to boost domestic demand, economic data performed strongly, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeding expectations. - Overseas, the US PMI in March declined slightly, and non - farm payrolls growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. - In terms of strategy, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by tariff shocks has eased, and the focus of the bond market may return from short - term sentiment to domestic fundamental pressure. The need for stable growth supports the continued decline of the medium - and long - term interest rate center. The second quarter may be the window for monetary easing, and reserve requirement ratio cuts may take precedence over interest rate cuts. There is a greater divergence at the important interest rate level of 1.6% for the 10 - year bond. Under heavy selling pressure, bond futures fluctuated and declined, but still showed strength after the adjustment. Attention should be paid to whether the Politburo meeting at the end of the month releases incremental information. If the policy intensity fails to meet expectations, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate and stabilize in the range of 1.65% - 1.75% in the short term and then continue to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: On April 22, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.970 (up 0.17%), 106.165 (up 0.07%), 102.402 (up 0.01%), and 119.920 (up 0.5%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 41,633 (down 2,124), 33,835 (down 348), 23,837 (down 492), and 79,801 (down 333) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 were 0.13 (up 0.01), 0.13 (down 0.02), 0.25 (up 0.02), and 0.21 (up 0.01) respectively. Other spreads such as T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc., also showed certain changes [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 189,451 (up 4,438), 166,353 (up 1,274), 101,641 (down 1,350), and 110,368 (up 5,213) respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL also changed to different extents [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220003.IB, 240025.IB, etc., showed upward trends on April 22 [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds were 1.4400% (up 1.00bp), 1.4900% (up 1.20bp), 1.5250% (up 2.25bp), 1.6100% (up 1.75bp), and 1.6630% (up 1.55bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate was 1.5997% (down 0.03bp), the Shibor overnight rate was 1.7090% (down 0.70bp), etc. The LPR rates of 1y and 5y remained unchanged at 3.10% and 3.6% respectively [2]. - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 220.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 164.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days [2]. 3.4 Industry News - On April 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Comprehensive Pilot Program of Service Industry Opening - up". The pilot tasks will be implemented in all 11 pilot provinces and municipalities at once. Relevant work on cross - border trade and investment and financing facilitation will be carried out, the green finance policy toolkit will be optimized, etc. - On April 22, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council required central enterprises to take the initiative, strengthen fund planning, ensure timely payment, and support upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - April 22, 22:00, Eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary value - April 23, 21:45, US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value - April 24, 01:00, US initial jobless claims for the week ended April 19 (in ten thousand people) - April 25, 22:00, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [3]