Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the January 29 meeting, pausing any rate cuts[2] - The overall tone of the meeting was hawkish, emphasizing signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and inflation remaining somewhat elevated[6] Economic Indicators - Current inflation rates are above the target, with CPI at 2.7% and PCE at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4] - Employment growth is in a neutral to weak state, with a labor participation rate dropping to 62.4% and average hours worked declining, suggesting underlying economic pressures[14] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a rate cut before May is low, primarily due to the Fed's emphasis on independence from political pressures and the upcoming rotation of voting members towards more hawkish stances[5][15] - Future rate cuts will need to overcome "two thresholds": the continuation of Powell's leadership and the selection of a new chairperson, which will influence the pace of monetary easing[21] Market Reactions - The market response to the Fed's decision was in line with expectations, with limited volatility observed in the S&P 500 and a rise in the dollar index, reflecting a stronger pricing for prolonged high rates[7]

Employment Initiatives - The government aims to create an employment-friendly development model, implementing actions to stabilize and expand job opportunities, particularly in key industries [1] - A strategic plan for employment prioritization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be developed [1] - Public employment recruitment activities, such as the Spring Breeze Action and Employment Assistance Season, will be conducted [1] Social Security Measures - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance will be expanded nationwide [1] - There will be efforts to broaden social security coverage, encouraging flexible and new employment forms to participate in employee insurance [1] - The government will promote comprehensive coverage for urban and rural residents' pension insurance and guide local implementation of policies for subsidizing pension contributions [1] Labor Relations and Wage Distribution - A new regulation will be established to protect the basic rights of workers in new employment forms, clarifying labor standards and employer responsibilities [1] - Provisional regulations for the basic rights of older workers will be introduced [1] - Revisions to the paid annual leave regulations will be promoted to ensure compliance by employers [1] - A mechanism for adjusting minimum wage standards will be improved to encourage skill-based wage distribution [1] - Efforts will be made to resolve wage arrears, particularly during the winter season [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] - Following the announcement, gold and silver prices surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures rising by 6.46% to $5411.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 10.06% to $116.62 per ounce [1] - The meeting minutes indicated that employment growth remains low, while the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, with inflation levels still high [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was supported by a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve and suggested that the next chairman should distance the institution from political influences [3] - Powell referred to a recent Supreme Court case as potentially the most significant legal case in the Fed's 113-year history, highlighting the importance of transparency in the Fed's actions [3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for future actions [6][10] - The U.S. economy is entering 2026 with a solid foundation, despite recent low job growth, with signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [6][8] - The core PCE inflation rate is projected to reach 3% by December 2025, with inflation risks having somewhat dissipated [6][9] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate has shown signs of stabilization, with December's rate at 4.4%, and job growth remaining low at an average of 22,000 new jobs per month [8][9] - Labor supply growth has slowed due to reduced immigration and declining labor force participation, contributing to the current employment situation [8][9][43] - Other labor market indicators, such as job vacancies and wage growth, have not shown significant changes recently [9][43] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell indicated that the majority of tariff impacts have been transmitted to the economy, with tariff-induced inflation expected to dissipate by mid-2026 [12][27] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE index increased by 4.3%, largely driven by tariff impacts [9][51] - The expectation is that the inflation effects from tariffs will peak and begin to decline, signaling potential policy easing [12][27] Group 4: AI and Technology Impact - Short-term effects of artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to job losses, but the long-term impact remains uncertain [14][50] - Historical trends suggest that technological advancements typically disrupt jobs but also create new opportunities over time [50][63] Group 5: Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. fiscal path is deemed unsustainable, with significant budget deficits persisting even as the economy approaches full employment [3][38] - Addressing the fiscal situation is crucial for long-term economic stability, as current deficits are not being adequately resolved [38][39] Group 6: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence, especially in light of ongoing legal challenges faced by board members [4][42] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for effective monetary policy and public trust [42][41]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations. This marks the first pause after three consecutive meetings of rate cuts since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards inflation in the dual mandate of employment and price stability [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% was passed with a vote of 10-2, with dissent from Waller who favored a 25 basis point cut. The statement reflected a change in economic outlook from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion" and indicated signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, reducing previous concerns about employment risks [2][3]. Economic Outlook - Powell's remarks during the press conference were restrained, avoiding political commentary and emphasizing that the next chair should remain apolitical. He noted that the economy remains solid, with recent data showing improved economic activity. The labor market is stabilizing, and both inflation and employment risks have diminished. Inflation pressures from tariffs are expected to peak mid-year [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. equities, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell. The implied probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remained below 20%, and the probability for June dropped from 83% to 74%. The market continues to expect approximately 1.9 rate cuts for the year, indicating a potential for two cuts [5][9]. Signals from the Meeting - The overall tone of the meeting was neutral to hawkish, with a reduced urgency for further easing as inflation remains above target and economic momentum improves. The urgency for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 appears to be diminishing [12]. Chair Nomination Developments - The prediction market indicates a shift in the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Rieder emerging as a frontrunner due to alignment with Trump's policy preferences. Waller's chances have increased following his dissenting vote, while Hassett's prospects have declined significantly. The nomination process remains uncertain, influenced by internal party divisions and the need for Senate confirmation [13].

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

北京时间1月29日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储自去年9月起连续三次降息后的首次暂 停行动。 本次会议以10比2的投票结果通过，下任美联储主席人选之一的沃勒和美国总统特朗普"钦点"的另 一位理事米兰都支持继续降息，成为反对此次利率决议的少数派。 美联储声明和美联储主席鲍威尔的发言都暗示美联储并不急于降息，同时鲍威尔建议下一届美联储 主席与政治划清界限。 当天，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，报49015.6点；标普500指数微跌0.01%， 报6978.03点；纳斯达克指数上涨0.17%，报23857.4点。美元指数反弹0.75% 现货黄金价格强势站上5400美元/盎司关口，日内暴涨约4.5%。 不急于降息 本次美联储声明对经济活动的表述从上个月的"温和速度扩张"，改为以"稳健的速度扩张"，删除了 就业风险增加的表述，只表示就业增长仍然缓慢，失业率已显现出一定的企稳迹象，通胀依然略高。 FOMC力求长期内实现最大化就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性仍处于较高水平。委员会 密切关注 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 美联储按下暂停，鲍威尔未"抗争" 1 月 29 日，美联储暂停降息，维持 3.5-3.75%。沃勒和米兰持异议，支持降息 25bp。资产表现方面，美 元、美债利率冲高回落，黄金先小幅回调再冲高，美股波动不大。 第一，美联储声明对经济和劳动力市场转向略偏乐观。1 月会议声明指出，经济活动"稳步"扩张 （solid），而 12 月会议声明的对应表述为"温和"（moderate）。声明指出"就业增长保持低位，失业率出现一 些企稳迹象"，而且删除了 12 月会议中关于就业下行风险的表述。表述略偏乐观，但未明显超出预期。北京时间 3：00 声明发布后，2 年期美债收益率小幅上行接近 1bp，美元指数上涨 0.18%，市场反应不大。 第二，鲍威尔讲话整体中性，并未进一步抗争。从市场反应来看，3：30 新闻发布会开始后，2 年和 10 年 美债利率一度下行 2bp 左右，美元指数下跌 0.3%，黄金冲高上涨接近 0.9%，标普涨约 0.2%。鲍威尔的讲话整 体偏中性，但打消了市场对于司法部调查引发鲍威尔更趋鹰 ...

当地时间1月28日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续维持在3.5%至3.75%之 间。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通 胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险。为支持其目标，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间继续 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。 具体表决细节显示，美联储以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，决定将基准利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间。美联储理事沃勒以及米兰投下反对票，主张降息25 个基点。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 5422.457 "F | | | 5413.805 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +8.652 | +0.16% 开盘 | | 5416.334 | 现手 | | | 0 | | ...