Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that stock market valuations are "quite high," which negatively impacted market sentiment and ended a three-day rally in U.S. stocks [2][10]. Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability faces threats, suggesting that there is no risk-free policy path [2][17]. - The recent decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased risks to employment, reflecting a shift in risk balance [2][17]. - Powell stated that the current policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," allowing for further rate cuts if labor market weaknesses outweigh inflationary pressures [5][18]. Inflation and Tariffs - Powell reiterated that tariffs are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, leading to one-time price fluctuations that may last several quarters [3][17]. - He emphasized the need for the Fed to monitor the potential lasting effects of tariffs to prevent them from becoming a persistent inflation issue [3][17]. - Recent data showed inflation rising, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 2.7% over the past year, above the Fed's 2% target [16][17]. Labor Market - Powell acknowledged that the U.S. labor market can no longer be considered robust, with signs of substantive weakness emerging [8][15]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, with job growth significantly slowing down, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [15][16]. - Despite the slowdown, some labor market indicators, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, remain stable [16]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks about high stock valuations, major U.S. stock indices turned negative, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 1% [2][10].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell highlighted the current economic challenges, noting short-term inflation risks and employment downturn risks [2] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [2] - Employment growth is slowing, with the unemployment rate rising slightly, indicating increased risks in the labor market [2] Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a concerning trend in job growth [3] - The unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, unchanged from the previous month, while June's job numbers were revised from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, marking the first negative growth since 2020 [3] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months was only 29,000, indicating a weak labor market [3] Inflation Insights - Powell noted that inflation has decreased from its 2022 highs but remains above the long-term target of 2%, with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showing a 2.7% increase over the past year [4] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies may have significant but uncertain impacts on the economy [4] Monetary Policy Considerations - Powell expressed caution regarding the potential for inflation to rise if monetary policy is loosened too aggressively, suggesting that adjustments may be needed to achieve the 2% inflation target [4] - The current monetary policy stance is described as moderately restrictive, allowing for better adaptation to economic changes [4] Market Valuation Concerns - Powell acknowledged the high valuations in the stock market, with the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio reaching a historical high of 3.23 and the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio at 35, surpassing levels seen during previous market bubbles [5] - The market's high valuations are seen as misaligned with the future outlook of the U.S. economy, which could impact the overall trajectory of international financial markets [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - situation shows that the US September Markit manufacturing and services PMIs declined but remained in expansion, with price moderation. Fed Chair Powell reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment and didn't clearly state whether to cut interest rates in October. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will be in the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans phased resumption, and tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was due to multiple factors, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period with slow order recovery. Recently, as tin prices fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream and terminal enterprises was released, domestic inventory decreased, and the spot premium rose to 300 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased but the spot premium was at a low level. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, both long and short positions were cautious. It's recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position operations within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 271,650 yuan/ton, up 1,770 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin was - 410 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 34,270 US dollars/ton, up 250 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin was 10,808 lots, down 2,419 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 563 lots, down 1,142 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,575 tons, down 5 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 6,988 tons, down 909 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 6,342 tons, down 76 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 271,930 yuan/ton, up 1,070 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract was - 250 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 98 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees was 10,500 yuan/ton with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 258,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 262,700 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees was 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 176,400 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Chair Powell said US stock valuations were quite high and reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment without clearly stating whether to cut interest rates in October. The US September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value hit a two - month low, and the service and composite PMI preliminary values both hit three - month lows but were above the 50 boom - bust line. Growth has slowed since the recent peak in July, and companies reduced recruitment in September [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Follow - There was no news today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，9月23日黄金etf持有量为1000.57吨，较上一交易日保 持不变。周二(9月23日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3763.89美元/盎司，涨幅0.47%，日内最高上探至3790.79 美元/盎司，最低触3736.59美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 美联储主席鲍威尔近期的讲话，描绘了一幅"具有挑战性的形势"图景：一方面，通胀快于预期的风险依 然存在；另一方面，就业增长的疲软又引发了对劳动力市场健康的担忧。这种在抗通胀与保就业之 间"走钢丝"的艰难平衡，使得鲍威尔未能就下次降息时机给出明确线索。然而，市场对此的解读却相对 乐观。交易员们普遍预期，美联储在10月和12月再次降息的可能性极高。降息预期意味着持有黄金(一 种非生息资产)的机会成本将下降，同时也可能削弱美元汇率，从而提振以美元计价的黄金价格。尽管 内部存在分歧，但市场对宽松周期的预期已然形成，为金价构筑了强劲的底部支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the dual challenges of rising inflation and a slowing labor market, indicating a complex situation for policymakers [1] Group 1: Inflation and Labor Market Risks - Short-term inflation faces upward risks while employment is under downward pressure, creating a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve [1] - The dual risks imply that there is no zero-risk response path available for the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The decision was influenced by recent indicators showing a slowdown in economic activity and employment growth, alongside an increase in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that there is still room for further interest rate cuts while warning about high stock market valuations, which negatively impacted market sentiment and led to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [2][3][9]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasizes that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve—full employment and price stability—faces threats, with risks on both sides indicating no risk-free policy path [3][17]. - The current economic environment shows upward risks for inflation and downward risks for employment, leading to a challenging situation [3][17]. - The U.S. economy has shown resilience compared to other developed economies despite facing significant shocks from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [7][12]. Labor Market - Powell notes that the labor market is not robust, with signs of substantial weakness, and the risk of employment decline has increased [7][14]. - The unemployment rate has slightly risen to 4.3%, but remains low overall, with job growth slowing significantly [14][15]. - The average monthly job additions have dropped to only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [14]. Inflation and Tariffs - Powell reiterates that tariffs are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, leading to one-time price fluctuations that may last several quarters [3][16]. - Current inflation rates are above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with the latest data showing a 2.7% increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices over the past year [15][16]. - The increase in prices is primarily attributed to tariffs rather than broader price pressures, with service sector inflation still trending downward [15][16]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy stance to a more neutral position, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% [17][18]. - Powell maintains that the current policy stance is still moderately restrictive, allowing for better adaptation to changing economic conditions [18]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to evaluate and manage the risks of high inflation and persistent inflation to ensure that price increases do not evolve into a long-term inflation problem [16][17].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the difficult trade-off between inflation and employment risks, stating that "there is no risk-free path" [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25%, reflecting a shift in risk balance due to increased downside risks in the labor market [2] - Powell noted that the U.S. economy is slowing, with GDP growth of approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August [3] Group 2 - Powell acknowledged that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with total PCE prices rising 2.7% and core PCE rising 2.9% over the past 12 months [3] - Market reactions to Powell's speech were cautious, as he did not provide clear guidance on the timing of future rate cuts, contrasting with market expectations for rapid easing [3][4] - Powell indicated that U.S. stock market valuations are "quite high," suggesting that the market may be overreacting to expectations of monetary easing [4]

在上周美联储宣布降息后的首次公开演讲中，美联储主席鲍威尔和上周发布会上一样继续为进一步降息留下空间，并暗示 在有挑战的风险环境下会谨慎降息。在问答环节，鲍威尔警告股市估值太高，引发美股大盘下挫。 美东时间23日周二的演讲稿中，鲍威尔再次警告，联储的双重使命——充分就业和价格稳定均面临威胁，两面的风险意味 着没有毫无风险的政策路径。假如降息幅度过大或速度过快，可能无法有限控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目 标，而假如货币紧缩维持太久，则可能无谓地拖累劳动力市场。 鲍威尔指出，"短期内通胀存在上行风险，就业则存在下行风险——这是一个有挑战的局面"。在"活力不足、略显疲软的劳 动力市场"形势下，就业下行的风险已增加。正是因为就业风险增加导致风险平衡变化，上周美联储才决定降息。 对于关税，鲍威尔重申，合理的预期是，关税对通胀将有短暂影响，只会导致一次性的价格波动。不过，"一次性"的波动 并不意味着"立即发生"，可能会持续几个季度。鲍威尔仍认为，美联储必须密切关注关税可能带来的持续性影响，称要确 保关税不会演变为持续性的通胀问题。 鲍威尔本次讲话没有透露任何信息，暗示他会不会在10月的下次美联储货币政策会议上支持 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [4] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3% in August, although it has remained low overall, with job creation slowing to an average of 29,000 jobs per month over the past three months [5] - Inflation has recently risen, with the PCE price index increasing by 2.7% over the past 12 months, above the long-term target of 2% [5] Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% to better respond to economic developments and risks [1][7] - The Fed emphasizes a flexible approach to policy adjustments based on data and economic outlook, aiming to balance the dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing inflation [7] Trade and Policy Impacts - Significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies are still unfolding, and their long-term effects on the economy remain uncertain [3][6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with a one-time price level increase that may take time to fully manifest in the supply chain [6] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of slowing supply and demand, leading to increased risks in job creation and employment stability [5] - Despite the challenges, some labor market indicators, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, remain stable [5]