在全球经济的晴雨表上，美联储的每一次利率调整都足以掀起波澜，2025年12月10日，美联储如期落下降息靴子。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后讲话中直言，当前美国经济形势充满挑战，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险却偏向下行，这样的表述，精准点出了美联储的两难处 境。 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%，这是自9月以来的连续第三次降息，也是本轮降息周期的第六次操作。 看似常规的政策调整背后，却暗藏着美联储内部的分歧、白宫的不满与全球市场的连锁反应，这场降息，究竟是经济稳健的定心丸，还是风险潜伏的预警信 号？ 美联储的货币政策始终锚定充分就业与物价稳定两大核心目标，而这一次的降息决策，正是在两大目标的拉扯中诞生的产物。 从通胀层面看，美国个人消费支出（PCE）通胀总额预测中值今年为2.9%，明年为2.4%，仍未回落至2%的长期目标。 鲍威尔将通胀高企的主要原因归咎于特朗普政府此前加征的进口关税，并强调关税的影响只是一次性的价格上涨。 这一判断，实际上为降息操作提供了理论支撑，既然通胀压力并非源于货币超发，那么适度降息就不会加剧通胀失控的风险。 从就业层面看，美国新增就业放缓、失业率上升的信号，让美联储不得 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure smooth economic operation[2] - The meeting suggests a combination of "mandatory options + optional options" in macroeconomic policy, indicating a relatively stable approach to mandatory macro policies while allowing for counter-cyclical adjustments as needed[3] - The integration of stock and incremental policies is highlighted, with a commitment to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels[3] Group 2: Consumer and Market Dynamics - Consumption is prioritized over investment in policy discussions, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity, including the implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans[4] - The meeting calls for the expansion of quality goods and services supply and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential[4] - The focus on addressing "involution" competition indicates a recognition of deeper structural issues, requiring comprehensive solutions rather than superficial capacity clearing[4] Group 3: Taxation and Industry Support - The meeting proposes to improve the local tax system, addressing the decline in local tax revenue share in fiscal income and expenditure, with potential adjustments to shared tax ratios to stabilize local government finances[5] - Specific industries are identified for targeted support, including artificial intelligence, digital trade, and green trade, aiming to create a favorable policy environment for development[5] - Employment remains a top priority in social policy, with a focus on stabilizing job opportunities for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[5] Group 4: Risk Management - The meeting emphasizes risk prevention, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[6] - The report highlights potential risks including policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and delays in updating research information[6]

当鲍威尔走出新闻发布会现场时，他手中那份25个基点的降息决议，已经通过卫星信号传遍了全球每一个交易室。 12月10日深夜，华盛顿美联储总部的灯光亮到了凌晨。 北京金融街的券商分析师们紧急打开电脑，香港联交所的交易员端起了冷掉的咖啡，伦敦金市的报价屏上，金价曲线正快速向上跳动。 这场被市场称为"鹰派宽松"的政策变动，不仅是美国经济的"急救包"，更像一颗投入全球金融池的石子，激起的涟漪正朝着中国方向扩散。 美联储的每一次转身都牵动世界神经，这次也不例外。降息背后是美国自身的经济困局，而政策溢出效应下，全球资本正重新寻找栖息地，中国市场正成为 最显眼的那片绿洲。 很少有人知道，这次25个基点的降息决议，是美联储内部37年来最激烈的一次博弈。 会议室内，鸽派委员米兰拍着桌子主张直接降息50个基点，他手里的就业数据报告上，几个关键行业的招聘人数正逐月下滑。 而鹰派代表施密德则反复强调，通胀数据还没到放松的地步，过早降息会让之前的控通胀努力前功尽弃。7票反对的声音，让鲍威尔的最终决议显得格外沉 重。 逼得美联储不得不松口的，是金融体系里正在枯竭的流动性。 2022年以来，美联储一直在缩减资产负债表，两年时间里抽走了2.4 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：于博宏观札记） | | 2025年12月议息会议 | 2025年10月议息会议 | 2025年9月议息会议 | 2025年7月议息会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利率决策 | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 下调25BP | 不调整 | | 联邦基金利率目标区间 | 3.50%-3.75% | 3.75%-4.00% | 4.00%-4.25% | 4.25%-4.50% | | 超额准备盆率 | 3.65% | 3.90% | 4.15% | 4.40% | | 陽夜逆回购利率 | 3.50% | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 级信贷贴到窗口利率 | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | | 12月1日起:1)美联储持有的美国 国债到期后,本金部分将全部在拍卖 | 10-11月:月度减持美国国债的 | | | | | | 上限维持在50亿美元、维持月度 | | | | | 中续做 (roll over) ; 2) 机构债与 机构抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的本 | 减持抵押贷款支持证券 ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%。这是美联储自今年9月开启本轮降息周期以来的第三次降息，也 是连续三次在议息会议上采取相同幅度操作。 尽管降息幅度符合市场主流预期，但会议罕见地出现了9比3的投票结果，以及美联储对未来利率路径的 谨慎表态，凸显出其在控通胀与稳就业之间的艰难平衡。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，12月FOMC如期降息25个基点，点阵图指引6名FOMC成员不赞同本 次降息，2026全年降息1次，整体偏鹰；但同时美联储超预期宣布启动轻量扩表，且由于反对票、鹰派 点阵图已被市场抢跑预期，因此鲍威尔在发布会上偏鸽派的发言反而助推了市场的宽货币交易。 芦哲分析，短期看，2026年1月会议前大量发布的经济数据仍将使得最近1个月的降息预期出现反复；中 期看，2026年一季度的美国宽财政、宽货币与季节性调整将迫使美联储在3—4月暂停降息，中期选举前 可能出现至少3次的连续降息，这将导致明年美联储货币政策预期的节奏呈现为先鹰后鸽。 在会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，本次降息决定遵循促进美国民众充分就业 ...

Group 1 - Employment is emphasized as the largest livelihood and fundamental support for economic development, with the government prioritizing employment policies to stabilize the job market [1] - In the first three quarters, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, while the average urban unemployment rate from January to October was 5.2%, below the expected control target [1] - Various policies have been implemented to support employment, including financial assistance to enterprises and measures to stabilize job positions [2][3] Group 2 - The government has allocated 35.5 billion yuan for employment support projects, expected to absorb over 1.1 million low-income workers [2] - A reduction in unemployment insurance fees has saved enterprises 138.4 billion yuan in labor costs, while 19.6 billion yuan has been allocated for job retention funds [3] - Targeted actions have been taken to support youth employment, including the creation of 1 million internship positions and recruitment of 42,500 personnel for public service [4] Group 3 - New employment opportunities are emerging in sectors such as artificial intelligence, big data, and modern services, with significant demand for skilled professionals [6][8] - The introduction of new professions and job categories aims to create more employment opportunities, with 17 new professions and 42 new job types added [6] - Companies are adapting to industry changes by updating talent training programs to ensure workers can transition to new roles [7] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to improve employment quality, including vocational training and optimizing the employment environment [10][11] - A focus on market needs has led to the establishment of over 60 skill ecosystems across 19 provinces, enhancing the competitiveness of workers [12] - Measures are being taken to protect workers' rights, including addressing wage arrears and ensuring fair compensation for skilled labor [13]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月11日电 美联储在为期两天的政策会议后宣布下调利率，但同时释放出谨慎信号。美 联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上强调，货币政策无预设路径，将根据经济数据灵活调整。同时，美联储 还启动了技术性购债操作，以维护市场流动性。决议公布后，美元走软，美国国债收益率下跌。鲍威尔 发布会要点如下： 利率前景 可以等待并观察经济如何发展。目前处于中性水平区间的上端。目前没有人会把加息作为基本预期。长 期利率可能因预期经济增长加快而上升。 通胀前景 通胀风险偏向上行。当前通胀超调主要由关税引起。若关税取消，通胀率将处于2%区间的低位。关税 的影响很可能是一次性的。若未来不再推出新的大规模关税政策，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度达 到峰值，随后快速回落至合理区间。从通胀结构来看，服务业通胀（剔除住房分项）仍在持续下行，这 是美联储最关注的内生通胀压力指标，目前已取得明显进展；同时，长期通胀预期依然牢牢锚定在2% 的目标水平，市场盈亏平衡通胀率处于"非常舒适的水平"。 购买短期国库券仅用于准备金管理，购债规模可能在未来几个月内保持高位，随后逐渐减少。 其他重要议题表态 美国住房市场的根本问题是长期供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a complex economic situation in the U.S., characterized by high inflation and a weakening job market, leading to a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [1][5]. Economic Context - The current federal funds rate is set between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the sixth rate cut since September of the previous year [1]. - Core PCE inflation remains high at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since November 2021 [1][4]. Political Influence - Former President Trump criticized the Fed for the modest rate cut, suggesting it should have been doubled, reflecting his preference for aggressive monetary easing to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The internal dissent within the Fed was notable, with three members voting against the decision, indicating differing views on the economic outlook [3]. Fed's Stance - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision to cut rates was challenging and aimed at assessing future economic performance, indicating a cautious approach to further easing [3][5]. - Powell directly attributed rising inflation to Trump's tariff policies, highlighting the Fed's effort to maintain its independence from political pressures [4]. Global Economic Impact - The rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, benefiting commodities priced in dollars, and potentially stimulate investment and consumption globally [5]. - However, there are risks associated with rapid rate cuts, including increased inflationary pressures and the potential for asset bubbles [5]. Future Considerations - The ongoing tension between Trump's growth-focused approach and Powell's dual mandate of employment and price stability will continue to influence Fed policy [4][5]. - The selection of the next Fed Chair, as Trump seeks a candidate more aligned with his views on aggressive rate cuts, could have significant implications for U.S. and global monetary policy [4][5].

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%至3.75%之间。 鲍威尔表示，目前通胀率超过美联储2%的目标主要是由于特朗普政府提高进口关税所致。他重申，关 税对通胀的影响可能只是"一次性的价格上涨"。（央视记者） 10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲话10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲 话。鲍威尔表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命为指导。在当 日的会议上，委员会决定降息25个基点，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，形势充满挑 战。通过当日的决定，委员会在过去三次会议上已累计下调政策利率0.75个百分点。此举有助于稳定劳 动力市场，并在关税影响消退后，使通胀恢复至2%的下降趋势。 鲍威尔称，财政政策将保持支持性。人工智能支出将继续，消费者支出也将继续。因此，明年经济增长 的基本预期应该是稳健的。 鲍威尔称，自9月以来，委员会对政策立场的调整使其处于中性预期范围内，这使他们能够根据最新数 据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡，更好地确定政策利率进一步调整的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔表示，在联邦公开市 ...

新华社北京12月10日电 题：抓紧抓好就业这个"最大的民生" 新华社记者张晓洁、林凡诗 就业是最大的民生，也是经济发展最基本的支撑。 今年以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚持把就业工作摆在治国理政的突出位置，强化就业优先 导向，各地各部门出台一系列政策举措稳就业惠民生，就业形势保持总体稳定。前三季度，全国城镇新 增就业1057万人，完成全年目标任务的88%。1至10月，全国城镇调查失业率均值5.2%，低于预期控制 目标。 经济发展越是承压前行，越要千方百计稳住就业。持续推动就业扩容提质，不断增强广大劳动者的 获得感幸福感安全感，将为经济社会发展、保障改善民生提供有力支撑。 出实招，稳定就业大盘 多点发力，为青年就业保驾护航——面对高校毕业生规模创历史新高，实施就业服务攻坚行动，强 化离校未就业毕业生实名帮扶，募集百万见习岗位，招募"三支一扶"人员4.25万名。 稳岗服务，为农民工增收纾难解困——强化输入地、输出地劳务对接，稳定农民工特别是脱贫人口 务工规模，全国近2500个劳务品牌带动过亿农民工就业。 集中帮扶，为失业人员上岗搭桥引路——提供就业政策、培训项目、市场岗位、招聘活动等信息， 帮助相关行业企业失业 ...