当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席美国商业经济学会第67届年会时表示，自9月议息会议以来，美国的就业与通胀前景并未出现明显变化，但最新 数据显示，经济增长依然保持在一个"高于预期的稳健水平"。 鲍威尔表示，美联储在9月会议上选择维持中性政策立场，是基于对风险平衡的重新评估。"在通胀与就业目标之间寻找平衡，本身就不存在无风险的选择。 我们会根据经济前景的变化动态调整政策，而不是按既定路线前行。" 关于市场关注的"缩表"进展，鲍威尔透露，美联储或已接近缩表终点。"我们计划在准备金规模略高于'充足'水平时停止缩表。现在看来，这个时点可能就在 未来几个月。"他说，目前，美联储正密切关注多项指标，以确保这一决策的时机恰当。 他提到，在美国政府因预算分歧而短暂"停摆"前，相关经济数据已经显示出一定的韧性。由于政府关门，9月非农就业等关键数据的发布被迫推迟，但现有 迹象仍表明——企业裁员和招聘活动都维持在低位，劳动力市场虽然热度下降，却依旧处于相对健康区间。 鲍威尔指出，劳动力市场的活力正在减弱，招聘难度下降，意味着就业可能面临一定的下行压力。"这种变化让我们在评估风险时更加谨慎，"他说。 在通胀方面，他认为，近期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex policy environment, balancing inflation control and employment support, with indications that the current tightening cycle may be nearing its end and a shift towards "measured easing" is possible [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - Current data suggests that employment and inflation trends remain stable, with economic growth slightly stronger than expected, despite signs of labor market weakness such as hiring slowdowns and reduced job vacancies [5][26]. - The core PCE inflation rate is approximately 2.9%, slightly above the beginning of the year, primarily driven by tariff-induced price increases, while housing service inflation is declining [3][25]. Monetary Policy Strategy - Powell indicated that the Fed may soon halt balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the importance of liquidity management to avoid market volatility similar to the 2019 repo market disruptions [4][7][21]. - The Fed's dual strategy involves cautious interest rate cuts and balance sheet adjustments to alleviate liquidity pressures without overly relying on rate reductions [4][9]. Market Reactions - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's signals regarding potential rate cuts and balance sheet normalization, with expectations of one to two rate cuts this year, though internal opinions within the Fed vary [7][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the balance of policies rather than betting on a single approach, as the Fed's strategy aims to respond to economic realities and manage market expectations [9][10]. Financial Stability - Powell highlighted the critical role of the reserve system, warning that failure to maintain interest payments on reserves could undermine the Fed's control over rates and financial stability [8][24]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which currently stands at $6.5 trillion, is primarily composed of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, with a focus on maintaining a stable financial environment [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may halt the balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money markets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell stated that bank reserves remain "ample," but officials are closely monitoring various indicators to determine when to stop the reduction [2] - Since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, inflation and employment outlooks appear largely unchanged, although signs of labor market weakness are increasing [3][4] - Powell noted that even without government data during the shutdown, the "downside risks to employment seem to have risen" [5] Group 2: Future Rate Decisions - Powell retained the possibility of a rate cut in October, emphasizing that officials face a challenging choice between prematurely ending the fight against inflation and delaying support for the labor market [6] - Market reactions to Powell's comments were evident in the widening of dollar swap spreads, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping to a daily low and U.S. Treasury yields declining following his remarks [7]

美联储主席鲍威尔：研究表明，政策对就业和通胀产生影响的时滞更长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% on September 17, 2025, amidst internal disagreements among decision-makers [2][3] - There is a split among the Federal Reserve officials, with 10 out of 19 supporting two more rate cuts this year, while 7 officials oppose further cuts due to concerns about inflation [3][7] - The market initially reacted positively to the rate cut, but concerns about rising unemployment risks and economic cooling led to a decline in stock prices shortly after the announcement [5][10] Group 2 - Economic indicators show a GDP growth of 1.6% and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, but hiring has slowed down significantly, with a 20% decrease in companies' willingness to hire [3] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot revealed a division, with some officials advocating for maintaining the current rate due to persistent inflation risks [3][10] - Political pressures are mounting, with former President Trump calling for quicker rate cuts, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [8][10]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，美联储于 2025 年 9 月 16 至 17 日召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，美 国上半年实际 GDP 增速放缓，劳动力市场趋软，核心 PCE 通胀维持在年内高位。多数与会官员认为在 当前背景下适度宽松是合适的，并预期年内可能进一步降息。大多数成员强调通胀上行风险依然存在， 但就业下行风险有所增加。委员会将继续推进缩表进程，预计至 2026 年一季度，银行体系准备金余额 将降至约 2.8 万亿美元。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining optimism in the market despite signs of bubbles, particularly driven by significant capital expenditures related to AI. It suggests that understanding the long-term narrative of AI and ignoring short-term noise is crucial for investors [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. stock market has shown remarkable resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices trading above their 50-day moving averages for over 100 consecutive days, reaching new historical highs [1]. - Retail investors have been net buyers for 21 out of the last 24 weeks, and ETFs have seen net inflows for 183 out of the last 185 trading days, indicating strong market enthusiasm [1]. - The "most shorted" and "unprofitable tech stocks" have experienced rapid gains, alongside sectors like nuclear energy, quantum computing, drones, and artificial intelligence [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and AI - A report predicts that capital expenditures by "hyperscale computing companies" will reach $2.8 trillion by 2029, with total global related capital expenditures amounting to $5.5 trillion during the same period [7]. - The article argues that the substantial capital inflow related to AI is a powerful trend that cannot be easily countered, suggesting that premature bearishness could be detrimental for investors [7]. Group 3: Key Market Drivers - Three main drivers supporting the market are identified: declining interest rates, corporate profits, and employment dynamics [8]. - The expectation of lower U.S. interest rates is seen as a likely scenario, which would provide additional support to capital markets [8]. - AI is expected to enhance corporate profit margins either by directly reducing costs through efficiency or by compelling companies to improve productivity to showcase their AI investments [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Indicators - Current market sentiment indicators are at extreme levels, with daily trading volumes of call options reaching an average of 40 million contracts, double the volume from three years ago [9]. - Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs, a significant percentage of their constituent stocks have declined, indicating a divergence in market performance [9]. - Technology and tech-related stocks now account for 56% of the total market capitalization in the U.S., while defensive stocks have dropped to 16%, the lowest recorded level [10]. Group 5: Currency Valuation and Asset Performance - The current bull market reflects a "devaluation trade" of fiat currency, with the Nasdaq index rising 165% and the S&P 500 index rising 102% when measured in U.S. dollars since the pandemic [11]. - However, when measured in gold, the Nasdaq index has only increased by 7%, and the S&P 500 has decreased by 18%, highlighting the importance of the currency used for asset valuation [11]. - This suggests that non-dollar-denominated assets, such as Bitcoin and gold, have seen faster appreciation, emphasizing the need for investors to consider the currency in which they evaluate asset returns [11].

尽管堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持了9月降息，但他对后续宽松政策犹豫，凸显美联储利率决策难以达 成共识。 堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德（Jeff Schmid）周一表示，他不愿进一步降息。他称，美联储在应对政 策过紧与过松这双重风险时，应持续关注高通胀带来的隐患。 施密德指出，美联储政策制定者面临着权衡取舍：若为提振劳动力市场而降息，可能会面临通胀上升的 风险；但若是将利率设定在足以降低通胀的高位，又可能会推高失业率。鲍威尔也曾提及这种平衡之 举。 施密德周一表示："各种限制因素使得在平衡相互竞争的目标时难以做出抉择，而美联储在应对通胀与 就业问题时，就肩负着做出这些艰难决策的使命。"他在事先准备好的演讲稿中用粗体突出"必须"一 词，并强调："在平衡这一限制因素时，我认为美联储必须维护其在通胀问题上的公信力。" 施密德称，美国经济势头良好，与人工智能相关的软件支出提振了企业投资（通常利率处于高位时企业 投资会疲软）。他指出，股票市场接近历史高点，公司债券利差较窄。 尽管米兰的观点无人认同，但其他几位美联储政策制定者，包括负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 （Michelle Bowman）和旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利 ...

假期里市场也没闲着，一个关于美联储降息的重磅消息突然炸开。 这回可不是小道消息，而是央视新闻亲自出手，采访了美联储的核心人物——副主席杰斐逊和理事米兰。 这两位大佬释放的信号，直接牵动着全球投资者的神经。 最劲爆的点在于，美联储理事米兰居然公开呼吁"采取更激进的降息路径"，甚至觉得应该一口气降息50个基点才够劲。 这跟之前美联储总是模棱两可的画风完全不同，简直是把内部的激烈争论摆上了台面。 你可能会觉得，美联储降息不是好事吗？ 市场应该欢呼啊。 但诡异的是，另一边厢，包括克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆在内的多 位官员，却在拼命"泼冷水"。 他们强调通胀还在高位趴着，降息必须"非常谨慎"。 这就形成了戏剧性的一幕：市场押注10月降息的概率高达90%以上，而美联储内部的一批人却在大声说"不"。 这事儿可就复杂了。 它不仅仅是一次简单的利率调整，背后是美联储在"通胀"和"就业"这两大使命之间的艰难走钢丝，甚至夹杂着政治力量的角力。 美联储内部吵翻了天：激进派 vs 谨慎派 我们先来看看美联储自己人是怎么"打架"的。 理事米兰是新上任的官员，他的态度非常激进。 他认为现在的货币政策对经济的限制性太强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Double Festival Celebration Enjoying Sihong" promotional event successfully integrated local entrepreneurship products with a job fair, enhancing market vitality during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was held from October 1 to 3, organized by the Sihong County Human Resources and Social Security Bureau in collaboration with the media center [1]. - It featured a "Four Linkage" promotional model, combining festive sales with a job fair to create a one-stop employment and entrepreneurship service platform [3]. Group 2: Participation and Offerings - Over 40 local quality enterprises showcased Sihong's cultural and culinary products, attracting consumer interest [3]. - The job fair included participation from more than 120 quality companies, offering over 600 job positions across various roles [3]. Group 3: Special Features and Outcomes - The event included three functional areas to meet entrepreneurs' needs: a venue supply area, an order-sharing area, and a financial services area [4]. - During the event, 926 employment intentions were reached, and nearly 10,000 viewers participated in the online live broadcast [4].