Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with significant internal disagreements among Fed officials and external pressures from the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opposes aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that a 50 basis point cut in September would send the wrong signal, as the labor market, while weakening, does not require urgent measures [4]. - Daly maintains a forecast of two rate cuts this year, emphasizing that businesses have absorbed tariff costs and that inflation from goods is moderate, indicating a preference for gradual policy adjustments [4]. Group 2: External Pressures - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for a 50 basis point cut in September, suggesting that rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [6]. - Market expectations for a September rate cut are high, with a 94% probability, including a 62.9% chance for a 25 basis point cut and a 22.5% chance for a 50 basis point cut, creating a dilemma for the Fed [6]. Group 3: Inflation Data - The latest data shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year in July, the highest level since February, and 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2% [8]. - Core PPI also increased by 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, indicating persistent upstream price pressures [8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Wall Street Firms - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict a 50 basis point cut in September, while JPMorgan forecasts cuts in both September and November, totaling 125 basis points for the year, citing a rapidly deteriorating job market [10]. - In contrast, Bank of America argues for maintaining rates until 2026, prioritizing inflation risks over employment concerns [10]. Group 5: Internal Disagreements within the Fed - The July Fed meeting saw the first dual dissenting votes since 1993, with officials advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut, highlighting a split within the committee [12]. - The decision-making process is expected to be contentious leading up to the September meeting, influenced by upcoming employment and inflation data [12].

Core Insights - The recent unemployment claims data presents a complex signal regarding the labor market's adjustment under policy pressures, with initial claims decreasing to 224,000, below market expectations of 228,000, indicating a continuation of low volatility trends [1] - Despite a cooling hiring sentiment due to economic uncertainties from tariff policies, employers have not initiated large-scale layoffs, as evidenced by the average monthly job additions of only 35,000 over the past three months [1] - The continuing high level of continuing claims at 1.95 million suggests that some unemployed individuals are facing prolonged job search periods, aligning with predictions of a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Policy and Market Reactions - Recent data has prompted policy changes, including the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director following significant downward revisions of employment data for May and June, with a controversial nominee, EJ. Anthony, proposed for the position [1] - Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although rising service sector inflation and tariff-induced price pressures may influence the pace of policy adjustments [1] Regional Employment Trends - The four-week moving average of initial claims remains stable at 221,800, while actual claims in regions like Massachusetts have shown an uptick, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is fully pricing in the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point reduction due to weak employment data [2][3] - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with expectations for a total reduction of 75 basis points this year exceeding 50% [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's neutral rate [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase for July, reflecting changes in the labor market [4] - The list of potential successors for Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations for leadership changes within the Federal Reserve [5][6] - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year, although caution remains among others regarding inflation targets [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is relatively mild, with companies passing on only 50-60% of tariff pressures to consumers, thus preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Inflation and Tariffs - U.S. inflation data for July shows that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is moderate, with the maximum price increase occurring 10-15 weeks after the announcement of tariffs [1] - The report suggests that while tariffs may continue to gently push up core inflation due to an increase in tariffs in August, weak corporate demand and a weakening job market will limit the extent of inflationary pressure [1] Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The demand slowdown and accelerated efforts to deport illegal immigrants indicate that the job market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a rate cut in September and two rate cuts within the year, reflecting the anticipated economic conditions [1]

来源：齐鲁晚报 近日,美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)再次顶住来自总统特朗普的降息压力、连续第五次决定维持利率不变 后,这个机构最近出现了令人瞩目的人事变动:阿德里亚娜·库格勒突然宣布辞去理事职务,重返乔治敦大 学任教。对此,特朗普称将在这几天确定一名候选人,填补美联储理事会出现的空缺。他还表示,已把美联 储主席鲍威尔的继任人选范围缩小到了4人。 主笔 王晓莹 辞职时机微妙 库格勒没有说明离职原因,只是在辞职信中写道:"能在美联储理事会任职是我一生的荣耀,尤其是在这一 关键时期,有幸参与实现我们的双重使命——降低物价的同时保持强劲而有韧性的劳动力市场,我感到非 常荣幸。" 现年56岁的库格勒出生在美国,由于父母工作的原因,她在哥伦比亚长大,她的父亲担任过世界银行的经济 学家。在哥伦比亚的生活让她见到了那里的贫困、童工、流浪人群、基础设施落后等问题,这促使她在 上大学时选择了政治学和经济学两个方向。不过,因为数学好,她最终选择了经济学。从麦吉尔大学本科 毕业后,她又在1997年获得加州大学伯克利分校的经济学博士学位,而她的导师是前美联储主席、美国前 财长珍妮特·耶伦的丈夫乔治·阿克尔洛夫,他曾在2001年获得诺贝尔 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of a potential turning point, as the July employment report revealed job growth significantly below market expectations, with substantial downward revisions to May and June's non-farm payroll data [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook expressed concern over the employment data, indicating that such revisions often occur during economic turning points, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] - Internal disagreements among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies reflect the complexities of addressing both economic slowdown and inflation pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The silver T+D market is currently experiencing a short-term oscillating trend, with prices trading above 9185, having opened at 9150 and reaching a high of 9200 and a low of 9115 [1][5] - The daily chart indicates that silver T+D prices maintain an upward trend, with resistance levels noted between 9150-9200 and support levels between 9090-9115 [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the **U.S. economy**, particularly the **employment market**, **inflation**, and **monetary policy** implications due to recent economic data and political influences [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Employment Market Weakness** - The U.S. employment market shows signs of fatigue, with a rising unemployment rate and a significant downward revision of previous job growth figures, leading to an average of only **50,000 new jobs** added over the past three months [2][6]. - The labor participation rate changes contribute to the overall weakness in supply and demand within the job market [2]. 2. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - Market expectations for a rate cut in Q4 have surged, with a **95% probability** of a **25 basis point** cut before October, driven by the weak employment and inflation data [1][2]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on the real estate and manufacturing sectors [5]. 3. **Inflation Trends** - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, prices of goods heavily reliant on imports, such as furniture and appliances, have risen significantly [3]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is projected to increase from **16.5%** to **17.5%**, which may further elevate inflationary pressures [3]. 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** - Political pressures for looser monetary policy are increasing, especially with the potential for new Federal Reserve board members who may favor rate cuts [5]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will significantly influence the market's pricing of September rate cut expectations [5]. 5. **Consumer Spending Dynamics** - Consumer spending constitutes **70%** of the U.S. economy, with high-income households showing resilience in their spending habits [6]. - Fixed-rate loans dominate the debt landscape, minimizing the impact of the current rate hike cycle on overall consumer debt pressure [6]. 6. **Economic Outlook** - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "very good" state to a "not so good" state, indicating a slowdown but not an imminent recession [7]. - The narrative around the economy remains unchanged, with expectations of a gradual weakening rather than a linear decline into recession [7]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest more clearly in the data by October, as inventory replenishment continues in various sectors [3][4]. - The sensitivity of middle and low-income groups to price changes may mitigate inflation transmission pressures compared to previous years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market, highlighting price movements and the implications of recent Federal Reserve decisions on economic outlook and monetary policy [1][3][4]. Market Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the spot silver price is at $37.34 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.66 and $37.39 during the day [1][2]. - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $36.75 and $36.55, and resistance levels at $37.20 and $37.50 [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The dissenting votes from Fed governors Bowman and Waller mark a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, the first of its kind since late 1993, indicating differing views on employment and economic forecasts [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester expresses confidence in the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, despite disappointing employment data, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment figures and inflation [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell and calls for significant interest rate cuts add complexity to the Fed's policy discussions, although internal Fed responses have been largely dismissive [4]. - The dynamics within the Fed, including potential future leadership changes, are influenced by these political pressures, but the overall policy direction remains focused on inflation concerns stemming from trade policies [4]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for silver suggests a cautious approach, with the price remaining below a recently broken upward channel, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment [5]. - Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) suggest a weak trend, with potential for consolidation in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest figure since October of the previous year [1] - The Labor Department revised down the job numbers for May and June, reducing them by a total of 258,000 jobs, which contributed to an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - The federal government has been cutting jobs, with 12,000 positions eliminated in July alone, totaling 84,000 job cuts for the year [1] Group 2 - Analysts have noted that the current economic state is characterized by stagnation, with no hiring or layoffs occurring, described as "half-dead" [2] - The significant job cuts in federal agencies, including over 80,000 positions in the Department of Education, have contributed to the employment decline [4] - The cumulative downward revision of non-farm payroll data since 2023 has exceeded 1.7 million jobs, raising concerns about the accuracy of previous employment reports [4] Group 3 - Investor Jim Rogers has expressed extreme pessimism about the U.S. economy, warning of an impending "great crisis" due to the massive national debt [9] - Rogers draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and the historical debt crisis faced by the UK in 1976, emphasizing the importance of debt repayment [9] - He believes the prolonged bull market in U.S. stocks, which has lasted since 2009, is unsustainable and warns of a severe downturn when the market eventually corrects [9] Group 4 - Rogers has shifted his investment focus away from U.S. stocks, holding only stocks from China, which he views as a rapidly rising global power with significant potential, particularly in tourism [8][12] - He highlights the importance of China's Belt and Road Initiative, suggesting it will reshape global economic and political landscapes [8]