US employers added far more jobs than expected in January, delivering a rare upside surprise after months of subdued hiring and easing fears that the labor market was sliding into a prolonged slowdown. Payrolls rose by 130,000 last month, significantly above economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4. ...

美国就业市场现状 美国劳工统计局数据显示，去年美国劳动力市场就业增长是自2003年以来非经济衰退时期最疲软的。截至12月底，预计职位空缺数量降至654万个，为2020 年9月以来的最低水平。招聘率、离职率和裁员率均保持相对稳定。特朗普政府实施的一系列政策，尤其是在关税和移民领域，其不确定性和负面影响严重 影响了企业的招聘计划。 ADP统计数据显示，美国私营企业1月份仅新增2.2万个工作岗位，是三个月以来最疲软的水平，也是自2021年新冠疫情反弹导致就业岗位减少以来1月份的 最差表现——主要得益于医疗保健行业的持续招聘。另外，周四首次申请失业救济金的人数在1月份表现平淡之后大幅上升。截至1月31日当周，估计有23.1 万份首次申请失业救济金的申请，比前一周增加了2.2万份。 Challenger, Gray & Christmas发布的一份新报告显示，美国雇主宣布的1月份招聘计划为5306人。Challenger表示，这是自2009年开始追踪招聘公告以来，1月 份的最低招聘总数。而雇主在1月份宣布裁员108,435 人，是12月份裁员公告数量的三倍，是去年同期裁员数量的两倍多。 美国1月非农将在今晚公布，也将决 ...

美联储洛根周二表示，她对美联储当前的政策利率水平能否在保持就业市场稳定的同时推动通胀回落至 2%目标持"谨慎乐观"态度，未来几个月的经济数据将检验这一判断是否成立。洛根表示："如果情况如 此，这将表明我们当前的政策立场是合适的，不需要进一步降息就能实现双重使命目标。"但她补充 称，如果通胀回落的同时劳动力市场明显降温，"再次降息可能就会变得合适。不过眼下，我更担心的 是通胀依然顽固地处于高位。"她表示，在去年三次降息之后，劳动力市场面临的下行风险"似乎已经明 显缓解"，但与此同时，这也在通胀方面带来了额外风险。她指出，随着短期借贷成本已处于被广泛估 计为"中性"的政策区间，当前利率水平对已强劲反弹的经济以及过去近五年持续高于美联储目标的通 胀，约束作用有限。洛根预计今年通胀将取得进展，已有一些初步改善迹象。 来源：第一财经 ...

Market Overview - Major averages have extended gains, with technology leading the way as investors anticipate a significant week of earnings reports and key economic data, including January jobs and the consumer price index [1] - The S&P 500 appears to be stalling at current levels, showing neither a breakdown nor a breakout [2] Economic Indicators - The job market is a critical dynamic, with payroll numbers expected to be a leading indicator of economic health; a weak payroll number of 55,000 is anticipated [3][5] - The Atlanta Fed has revised Q4 GDP growth expectations down to 4.2%, despite earlier projections of 5.4% [6] Investment Strategies - A barbell approach to investing is being favored, with semiconductors, healthcare, and energy sectors performing well, contingent on job market stability [4] - The expectation of a potential rate cut at the June meeting could support and propel share prices, especially if CPI shows a decline [5] Market Breadth - There is an increase in the percentage of subindustries within the S&P 1500 outperforming the index, indicating a broadening market [7] - Last week, 30 subindustries moved above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting positive investor sentiment, particularly in diversified metals, global banks, and technology hardware [8]

Group 1 - In January, U.S. employers announced layoffs exceeding 108,000, marking a more than 100% increase year-over-year and a 205% rise month-over-month, the highest January figure since the 2009 financial crisis [1][3] - The number of new job postings dropped to approximately 5,300, the lowest level recorded by Challenger, Gray & Christmas since 2009, contradicting the previous market perception of a stable employment situation [3][6] - The transportation sector was significantly impacted by layoffs, particularly due to UPS announcing a plan to cut over 30,000 jobs, followed by Amazon's decision to lay off 16,000 corporate employees [6][9] Group 2 - Companies reported a 13% year-over-year decline in planned hiring, with a nearly 50% drop month-over-month [6] - Over 100 companies submitted large-scale layoff notices to the Department of Labor in January, indicating a strong contraction signal from the corporate sector [9] - The official unemployment data, which showed a relatively low number of initial jobless claims at 209,000, does not yet reflect the impact of the recent layoffs, suggesting a lag in official statistics [6][9]

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •欧洲央行维持利率不变 未就未来政策路径给出指引 •英国央行"按兵不动" 称利率"可能进一步下调" •美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人 •墨西哥央行维持利率不变 •世界黄金协会：1月全球黄金ETF吸引创纪录的187亿美元资金流入 •英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%不变，但九名货币政策委员中有四人投票支持降息25个基点，释放了强 烈的鸽派信号。英国央行行长贝利也指出，今年应该有进一步降息的空间。 •美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克 认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高位。 •美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12 月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2万至23.1 万。 •欧盟正着手重新调整其全球最严格的碳市场规则，拟放宽对数以千计企业的减排要求。此举标志着该 地区在气候雄心与经济现实之间寻求新的平衡。 •法国计划在下周欧盟领导人会议期间讨论欧元兑美元走强的问题，此次会议旨在商讨如何 ...

在政治压力持续升温的背景下，美联储内部对通胀问题的表态依旧保持谨慎。理事丽莎·库克指出，在 缺乏更有力证据证明通胀能够持续回落至目标水平之前，维护央行通胀信誉仍是政策制定的核心考量。 她表示，当前风险仍偏向通胀上行，并支持维持利率不变的决定。相关言论发布于美联储将基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%区间之后。此前，央行已在2025年底连续三次下调利率。市场认为，库克的表态 对"快速宽松"预期形成了技术性约束，也进一步凸显出决策层在政策节奏与风险评估方面的分歧。 UNforex 2月5日讯 本周以来，美联储货币政策取向与高层人事安排相关的政治张力明显上升。美国总 统特朗普的最新公开表态，为下一任美联储主席的遴选设定了更为明确的政策边界，也使央行独立性问 题再次成为市场与国会讨论的焦点。在货币政策立场承受外部压力的同时，美国劳动力市场降温迹象持 续显现，而中东局势反复波动亦不断干扰风险资产定价，宏观层面的不确定性呈现出多重因素叠加的共 振状态。 特朗普在近期采访中直言，如果潜在主席人选凯文·沃什支持加息，其提名将不具备现实可能性。他强 调当前利率水平处于偏高区间，并认为美联储转向降息已不再存在实质性争议。相关表态 ...

Economic Growth - In January, the US manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 51.9, while the services PMI remained flat at 52.5, both slightly below expectations[2] - The Q3 GDP growth rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an upward revision in intellectual property and a narrowing drag from net exports[2] - Real personal spending in November remained flat at 0.3%, with the Redbook retail index showing high year-on-year growth in December and January[2] Financial Conditions - Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index eased by 10 basis points in January, driven by a weaker dollar, narrowing credit spreads, and rising US stock prices[3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4% in January, while corporate credit spreads narrowed by 5 basis points to 0.96%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 as of January 30[3] Inflation - The December core CPI increased by 0.2%, which was below expectations, with a marginal rise of 0.16 percentage points from November[4] - Inflation expectations rose in January, with 2-year and 10-year TIPS inflation expectations increasing by 54 basis points and 9 basis points to 2.84% and 2.34%, respectively[4] Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1% to 62.4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month[5] - Job openings showed signs of improvement, with a notable decrease in WARN notices indicating layoffs in December[5] Risks - There are concerns regarding the speed of weakening in the US labor market and the potential for liquidity tightening to be less than expected[6]

与此同时，美国总统特朗普周五宣布，他计划提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什在鲍威尔任期于5月结束后接 任美联储主席。博斯蒂克对此表示自己与沃什接触不多，但听说他"非常有思想，值得深入交流"。 值得注意的是，本次会议也是博斯蒂克作为政策制定者的最后一次FOMC会议，他将于2月底正式退 休。在新主席人选即将揭晓、美联储内部政策分歧浮现的背景下，市场对2026年降息节奏的预期或将进 一步波动。 在通胀方面，沃勒认为，如果剔除总统特朗普关税政策带来的影响，当前通胀水平已接近美联储2%的 目标，这为进一步降息提供了空间。沃勒过去数月一直基于"温和通胀+就业隐忧"的判断呼吁降息，但 在美联储连续三次降息结束2025年后，他此前曾表示无需急于继续宽松，因此此次突然投下反对票也令 市场感到意外。 与沃勒形成对比的是，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克则强调，通胀仍然偏高，美联储应保持耐 心，暂缓再次降息。他周五在接受采访时表示，"我们仍处在通胀过高的阶段，因此政策需要保持一定 限制性。"博斯蒂克认为，就业市场下行风险已较一个月前明显缓解，这增强了政策制定者等待更多数 据的信心。 美联储主席鲍威尔本周也表示，维持利率不变的决定在政策层面 ...

The Fed last paused interest rates in September 2023, holding the funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50% after a rapid tightening cycle aimed at curbing post-pandemic inflation.After the December rate cut, Powell said that the lowering of rates brought monetary policy “within a broad range of neutral.”The two goals often conflict, operate on different timelines and are influenced by unpredictable global events.The Fed’s dual congressional mandate requires it to balance inflation and job growth via interest rates.The ...