Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that the strengthening of the euro may suppress inflation more than previously expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implications - Since the last meeting, market interest rates have risen [1] - The ECB is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that market interest rates have increased since the last meeting [1] Group 1 - The rise in market interest rates indicates a shift in monetary policy dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 23, 2025, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight pullback, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and rebounding throughout the day. Recently, the China-US economic and trade situation has tended to ease. Coupled with the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite in the capital market, Treasury bond futures have had a short - term pullback. However, the current market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is relatively limited, which means the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, and the LPR remained unchanged in July. In the short term, the upward space for Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On July 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured on this day, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 369.6 billion yuan [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a stage of oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term and an oscillatory - weakening trend in the intraday period. The monetary policy environment is inclined to be loose, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having the largest decline. Recently, due to a large number of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank's open - market operations have mainly been net withdrawals. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, and the pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year has decreased. The risk appetite in the securities market has rapidly recovered, causing Treasury bond futures to enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the market interest rate is close to the policy interest rate, so the upward space for the market interest rate is limited. The problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year. There is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the downward space for interest rates is also limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and reference views for the TL2509 variety are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation weakening". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, with the first - half economic data showing resilience and the second - half pressure on stable growth reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loosely biased, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest decline. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the first - half economic data shows resilience, and the second - half pressure on stable growth is reduced. There are a large number of central bank reverse repurchases maturing this week, causing market interest rates to rise. Considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. A loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, but the short - term possibility is low, and the downward space for interest rates is also limited. So, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 货币政策环境偏向宽松，但短期 降息可能性不高 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。随着近期央行持续在公开市场净回笼资金，市场流动性回 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, it will continue to oscillate and consolidate. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the long - term upward logic is relatively solid, and the downward space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out, closing slightly higher throughout the day. At the beginning of the month, liquidity is relatively loose, and the future monetary policy is expected to be positive, so treasury bond futures perform strongly. In the future macro - environment, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is vulnerable to tariff factors. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is relatively solid. Although the possibility of an immediate interest rate cut is low, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the upward space of market interest rates is limited, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5].

金十数据6月20日讯，招联首席研究员董希淼表示，降低LPR并非当务之急。随着市场利率不断降低， 降息的边际效应也在下降。从外部因素看，美联储放缓降息步伐，如果LPR下降速度过快，可能会扩大 中美利差，增加人民币汇率压力。下一步，推动社会综合融资成本下降，并非只有降低LPR这一种途 径。 未来降低综合融资成本，可能要从降低抵押担保费、中介服务费等非利息成本着手。 招联首席研究员：降低LPR并非当务之急 ...

Group 1 - The recent 30-year Treasury bond auction by the U.S. Treasury raised $22 billion, with a yield of 4.844%, which is approximately 1.5 basis points lower than the market level before the auction, indicating strong demand despite slightly lower foreign participation [1] - Following the auction, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped to 4.839%, down from above 4.9% at the market open, suggesting that successful auctions typically lead to higher bond prices and lower market rates [1] - Foreign investors purchased 65.2% of the 30-year bonds, slightly below the average of 67.4% from the last six similar auctions, while the 10-year bond auction saw a foreign participation rate of 70.6%, lower than the average of 73.4% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the measurement of foreign demand may have technical biases, as "indirect bidders" are often seen as representatives of foreign investors, but some foreign buyers place orders directly through U.S. banks, which are not included in the "indirect bidder" statistics [2] - A more detailed report on investor classification will be released on June 24, which will provide a clearer picture of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - Despite the subdued foreign demand, "direct bidders," primarily domestic institutions, showed strong interest, supporting the recent 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid increasing U.S. fiscal deficits and debt supply [2]