Core Viewpoint - The current market faces insufficient demand, characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to price weakness. Effective release of consumer demand potential requires both short-term and long-term strategies to address structural issues [1][6]. Group 1: Demand and Consumption - Structural reasons for insufficient demand include a long-term low consumption rate, estimated to be 10% to 20% below potential. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for expanding domestic demand [2][7]. - The transition of consumer behavior from goods-oriented to a balance of goods and services consumption necessitates a dual approach to stimulate demand and optimize economic structure [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Implement counter-cyclical consumption demand stimulus policies that optimize the support structure for goods consumption while increasing support for service consumption. This includes addressing urgent public needs in education, healthcare, and social security to enhance consumer willingness and capacity [3][8]. - Effectively execute a plan to increase residents' income and improve social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby boosting consumer confidence and security expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There remains significant potential for investment, which should be supported through institutional and policy innovations. While consumer demand is crucial for economic growth, investment should not be neglected [4][9]. - Key focus areas for expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include developing new urban and real estate models and boosting private and foreign investment through improved business environments and reforms [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan Equity Custody Trading Center is enhancing private equity fund pledge registration services to promote "three capital" reforms, activate existing assets, and expand effective investments, thereby creating a new efficient and compliant channel for regional private capital flow [1] Group 1 - The center has completed a total of 10 fund pledge registrations [1] - The pledged shares exceed 4 billion shares [1] - The financing scale has surpassed 2.5 billion yuan [1] - The business scale ranks among the top in the national regional equity market [1]

格隆汇12月26日｜福建省委经济工作会议12月25日在福州召开。会议强调，紧扣深挖内需潜力，加力提 振消费和扩大有效投资。出实招出新招提振消费，持续开展"全闽乐购"促消费系列活动，深入实施服务 消费提质惠民行动、全域文旅提升战略，深入清理消费领域不合理限制措施，积极开展消费新业态新模 式新场景、国际化消费环境试点建设。综合施策稳定投资增长，强化项目谋划储备，充分发挥重大项目 牵引带动作用，把投资于物和投资于人紧密结合起来，有效带动各类投资增长，以更实举措增强民间投 资信心。 ...

党的十八大以来，特别是"十四五"时期，我国积极扩大有效投资取得显著成效。国家发展改革委数据显 示，我国固定资产投资（不含农户）从2012年的23万亿元增长到2024年的51.4万亿元；2013—2024年， 资本形成总额对经济增长的年均贡献率达38.1%。 近日，国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发文《着力扩大有效投资》，提出"十五五"时期扩大有效投资的 总体思路和重点举措，明确"十五五"时期政府投资管理核心路径，以结构优化、机制创新、全程监管为 抓手，推动有效投资精准落地，其中专项债管理机制调整成为政策焦点。 在切实管好用好政府投资方面，上述文章指出，研究调整地方政府专项债券项目"自审自发"试点范围， 进一步优化专项债券项目和资金管理机制。市场预计，未来专项债"自审自发"试点有望实现扩围。 当前，地方政府专项债券是政府拉动投资最直接、最有效的政策工具之一。2024年12月，国务院出台 《优化完善地方政府专项债券管理机制的意见》，提出要开展专项债券项目"自审自发"试点。下放专项 债券项目审核权限，选择部分管理基础好的省份以及承担国家重大战略的地区开展专项债券项目"自审 自发"试点，支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。 前述 ...

在严格的化债纪律约束下，各地对传统基建的投资意愿不足，叠加地方政府专项债及新型政策性金融工具等资 金有所分流，导致基建投资增速下滑， 1—11月，我国基础设施投资（不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应 业）累计同比下降1.1%，降幅较1-10月走扩1.0pct；细分领域来看，1-11月管道运输业投资累计同比增长 16.8%，增速较上月提升3.0pcts，水上运输业投资及铁路运输业投资1-11月累计同比增长8.9%及2.7%。 推动投资止跌回稳，着力扩大有效投资 中央经济工作会议中提出推动投资止跌回稳，中央预算内投资资金、地方政府专项债及新型政策性金融工具仍 将是主要的投资资金源；国家发展改革委固定资产投资司发表文章《着力扩大有效投资》，整体来看，"十五 五"期间我国投资仍将保持一定增量，但将更加注重投资效益，重视项目质量及项目落地，重大工程仍将是传 统基建领域的重点；在稳住传统领域投资基本盘的基础上，也将积极培育投资增长新动能，努力保持投资平稳 增长；在政府投资为主导的背景下，也将进一步促进民间投资发展，积极支持民营企业参与具有一定收益的铁 路、核电、水电等重点领域项目建设。在制度方面，将进一步完善投资审批管理 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has successfully completed its target tasks with 102 major projects, including significant infrastructure like the Baihetan Hydropower Station and the China-Laos Railway [1] - The implementation of these projects has played a crucial role in promoting economic growth, improving people's livelihoods, and strengthening safety foundations [1] Investment and Economic Impact - A total of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan (around 0.5 trillion USD) has been allocated for central budget investments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public projects that address shortcomings, adjust structures, and benefit people's livelihoods [1] - An additional 1.5 trillion yuan (approximately 0.22 trillion USD) has been allocated through ultra-long-term special bonds to support "two heavy" constructions [1] - Local governments have introduced over 13,000 projects to private capital, involving total investments exceeding 11 trillion yuan (around 1.7 trillion USD), indicating a significant push to enhance effective investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has successfully completed its target tasks for 102 major projects, significantly enhancing effective investment during this period [5][7]. Group 1: Major Projects and Their Impact - The completion of major projects such as the Baihetan Hydropower Station, the China-Laos Railway, and the "Dream" deep-sea drilling vessel has been achieved, contributing to economic growth, improving people's livelihoods, and strengthening safety foundations [5]. - The construction and implementation of 102 major projects have played a crucial role in promoting economic growth and ensuring the improvement of living standards [5]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - A total of nearly 3.4 trillion yuan has been allocated for central budget investments, focusing on public projects that address shortcomings, adjust structures, and benefit people's livelihoods [7]. - An additional 1.5 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds has been arranged to support "two heavy" constructions, while local governments have introduced over 13,000 projects to private capital, involving total investments exceeding 11 trillion yuan [7]. - The continuous increase in effective investment is accelerating the release of domestic demand potential, providing sustained momentum for economic growth [7].

证券研究报告 2025年12月21日 有色金属 铝行业周报：日本央行加息，铝锭仍有去库表现 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -17% 4% 24% 45% 65% 85% 2024/12/23 2025/06/21 2025/12/18 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：需求仍有韧性，铝价高位震荡（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-12-15 《铝行业周报：降息预期强化，铝价再度冲高（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-12-07 《铝行业周报：库存去化，铝价高位震荡（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈晨》— —2025-11-30 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.8% | 20.6% | 76.0% | | 沪深300 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 15.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...

王新伟在全省重点项目建设工作调度会议上强调 扩大有效投资 释放内需潜力 以高质量项目为"十五五"发展夯基蓄能 本报讯 记者史冬柏报道 12月20日，省委副书记、省长王新伟主持召开全省重点项目建设工作调度会 议。他强调，要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，深入贯彻落实习近平总书 记对辽宁的重要讲话和重要指示精神，按照省委十三届十次全会部署要求，全力扩大有效投资，持续释 放内需潜力，为"十五五"高质量发展夯实基础、积蓄动能。 会议听取了省发展改革委和部分省直部门、各市政府和沈抚改革创新示范区关于"十五五"重大项目考虑 及明年重大项目安排情况的汇报。与会同志围绕下一步工作深入交流讨论。 省政府领导班子成员出席会议。 责编：王世海 审核：刘立纲 王新伟指出，要紧扣高质量发展主题，以新发展理念为指引，把扩大内需与优化供给、做优增量与盘活 存量、投资于物和投资于人结合起来，坚持"实施一批、前期一批、储备一批、谋划一批"，以系统思 维、全生命周期抓好项目建设，加快扩内需、稳增长、促转型。 王新伟强调，要精准抓好项目谋划，围绕党中央决策部署全面谋，围绕提升维护国家"五大安全"能力重 点谋，围绕区位、产业、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding effective investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the integration of investment in physical assets and human capital to stimulate economic growth and support the new development pattern [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The central economic work conference highlights the need to stabilize investment as a key task, especially in light of external environmental changes and domestic economic challenges [1]. - Fixed asset investment growth has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% from January to November, influenced by local government debt and real estate adjustments [1]. - Long-term effective investment opportunities remain, as per capita capital stock in China is still lower than that of developed economies, indicating room for growth in infrastructure and public services [1]. Group 2: Funding Sources - The central economic work conference proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increase central budget investment, optimize local government special bond usage, and leverage new policy financial tools to enhance funding sources [2]. - Predictions suggest that upcoming policies will help alleviate local financial pressures and amplify government investment's impact [2]. - The focus on high-quality implementation of major national strategies and projects aligns with the need for improved infrastructure and human resource development [2]. Group 3: Private Investment - The article stresses the necessity of a collaborative investment approach led by the government and driven by the market, aiming to enhance private sector participation in major projects [3]. - Measures have been introduced to stimulate private investment, including expanding access, addressing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees [3]. - The central economic work conference calls for improving regulations to boost private sector confidence and investment willingness [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Demand - The development of new industries and the need to address existing gaps will continuously generate investment demand [4]. Group 5: Investment Growth Expectations - Investment is expected to have a greater elasticity compared to consumption, and with the implementation of various policies, investment growth in the coming year looks promising [5]. - More detailed work is required to ensure sustainable investment growth and optimize supply structure [5].