Group 1 - Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop of over 0.8%, falling below $124,000, while other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Avalanche also declined [1] - Over 160,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours due to the volatility in the cryptocurrency market [2] - The recent surge in Bitcoin, which peaked at approximately $126,199, was driven by a weakening dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin [2] Group 2 - Analysts at Bank of America suggest that a technical adjustment may be imminent for gold, as its price approaches the $4,000 per ounce mark, indicating signs of "exhaustion" in its upward momentum [3] - The report highlights that gold is currently about 21% above its 200-day simple moving average, a level often associated with peak prices [3] - In the stock market, while major Asia-Pacific indices mostly closed higher, the Nikkei 225 index saw a slight increase of only 0.01%, closing at 47,950.88 points after briefly surpassing 48,500 points [3]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观大类资产周报 国内权益小幅调整，商品涨跌不一 相关研究： | 1. | 《国内权益上涨，资金利率 | | --- | --- | | 下行》 | 2025.07.11 | | 2. | 《创业板领涨，贵金属回 | | 调》 | 2025.08.16 | | 3. | 《科创领涨，金价继续攀 | | 升》 | 2025.09.12 | 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 国内权益小幅调整 根据 Wind 数据，9 月 15 日~ 9 月 19 日，国内权益市场小幅调整，创业 板表现相对较好。上证指数周跌 1.30%、深证成指周涨 1.14%，创业板 周涨 2.34%，科创 50 周涨 1.84%。A 股上周在运行到前高附近又面临调 整压力，机器人板块面临较大回撤，消息面是特斯拉发推辟谣百万订 单。我们认为，在政策引导慢牛背景下，预计下周指数仍以震荡为主， 其中一些被 ...

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has led to uncertainty, as Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on upcoming meetings [2] - The current pullback in gold prices is seen as normal profit-taking, and the overall trend remains unchanged [2] - Despite an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, key economic data such as core PCE and non-farm payrolls are still pending, leading to a temporary market adjustment [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, with support at $3615 and resistance at $3665 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, with Trump urging countries to stop purchasing Russian oil to lower prices and end the Ukraine conflict [4] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production, but the increase is below expectations, which, along with ongoing geopolitical issues, is providing some support for oil prices [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a low volatility range, with prices consolidating between $61.50 and $64.80 [5] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with support at $62.40 and resistance at $64.10 [5] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index has reached a new historical high, with strong upward momentum indicated by MACD, although caution is advised due to potential market pullbacks [7] - Support is noted at 24300 and resistance at 24550 [7] US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has formed a bullish reversal signal, with a short-term upward trend and a recent breakthrough of the 120-day moving average [8] - Support is at 97.10 and resistance at 97.80 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment landscape, comparing the long-term potential of A-shares with the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting the choices investors face between these two asset classes [3][5]. Group 1: A-shares Market - The Shanghai Composite Index has recovered above 3800 points, marking a significant rise over the past four months, reaching a nearly ten-year high [3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed to lower the subscription fee rates for various types of funds, signaling an effort to stabilize investor confidence in the A-share market [5][6]. - Analysts believe that the A-share market can sustain its slow bull trend, viewing recent adjustments as opportunities for investors [5]. Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching historical highs, with predictions suggesting potential increases to $3730 by the end of the year and even $4000 by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios [6][9]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key factor driving gold prices higher, with market sentiment shifting towards gold as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties [7][24]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with gold now surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, indicating strong long-term support for gold prices [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment experts suggest that gold and A-shares can coexist in a diversified portfolio, with historical data showing periods where both asset classes have risen simultaneously [27][29]. - Recommendations for individual investors include allocating 5%-10% of their portfolios to gold to optimize performance and reduce volatility [27][36]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold ETF holdings and futures market positions to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements [14][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a slow bull run since April, but recent adjustments have raised concerns about potential profit-taking and market volatility [1][7]. Market Performance - On September 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.16%, briefly losing the 3800-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.65%, with trading volume decreasing to 510.9 billion yuan [3]. - Over 4,500 stocks declined, indicating a significant market pullback, which has affected new investors who recently entered the market [3][5]. - In August, new account openings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 2.6503 million, a 30% increase from July and a 165% year-on-year rise [3]. Historical Context - Historical data shows that A-shares have often experienced sharp declines during bull markets, with notable instances in 2007 and 2015 where maximum drawdowns reached 21% and 15% respectively [5][6]. - The current maximum drawdown since April 2025 is only 2.5%, suggesting that the recent adjustments are more of a technical correction rather than a significant downturn [5][6]. Reasons for Recent Adjustments - Two main factors are identified for the recent market adjustments: a strong technical correction demand due to accumulated profit-taking and tightening external environments, including a downturn in U.S. tech stocks and rising gold prices [7][8]. Outlook on the Bull Market - Despite recent fluctuations, many institutions believe the current "slow bull" market is not over, as the underlying logic supporting the bull run remains intact [8][10]. - Key supportive factors include regulatory support, low deposit rates prompting capital migration, and a clear trend towards new productive forces in the Chinese industry [10][12]. Investment Opportunities - The latest mid-year reports from listed companies indicate a total revenue of 34.93 trillion yuan and a net profit of 2.92 trillion yuan, with the financial sector leading in profitability [14]. - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, and brokerage firms are highlighted as maintaining high profitability and becoming market hotspots [14]. - The top-performing sectors from April 8 to August 27 include telecommunications, comprehensive services, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries, with respective gains of 78.06%, 51.18%, 47.31%, 43.49%, and around 40% [14]. Future Investment Strategies - Future investment strategies should focus on sectors driven by technology growth, cyclical commodities, and structural opportunities in industries like automotive and wind energy [16]. - Recommendations include maintaining a stable core portfolio with high dividend stocks and gold, while also considering sectors like non-bank financials, military, and chemicals for growth [16].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline in early Asian trading, potentially due to technical adjustments, with spot gold down 0.1% to $3,367.50 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures saw a significant increase last Friday, following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who appeared to open the door for a rate cut in September [1] - Analysts suggest that uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts after September may limit the upside for gold prices [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Vasu Menon, Managing Director of Investment Strategy at OCBC Bank, noted that Powell's cautious stance implies that even if the Fed cuts rates in September, it does not guarantee further cuts in October and December [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance after a rise, while sectors like banking, insurance, gaming, and consumption performed well [1][2] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with a steady increase in ETF size and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June introduces uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1][3] Group 2 - Despite a pullback, the overall positive trend in the A-share market remains unchanged, with active trading and a market turnover exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating good market momentum [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the "increasing income without increasing profit" dilemma, supporting a recovery in A-share performance [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently above 3600 points, maintaining a strong technical trend, although there is some differentiation at high levels, particularly with increased selling pressure in the ChiNext [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical events, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which has reduced market risk appetite and led to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold experienced a volatile trading session, opening high but quickly falling to a low of $3347 before rebounding to $3380, ultimately closing at $3368 [1]. - The primary support for gold prices is currently the situation in the Middle East; any successful ceasefire could lead to further declines in gold prices due to dollar strength and technical adjustments [1][2]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold is struggling within the moving average range, with a downward shift in the technical structure [2]. Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading strategy is to focus on short positions, with specific entry points at $3360-$3362, a stop-loss at $3370, and a target range of $3330-$3310 [3]. - Key resistance levels to watch are between $3365-$3370, while support levels are around $3300 and the lower boundary of the daily range at $3285-$3280 [2]. Upcoming Economic Events - Important economic data and events to monitor include the U.S. current account for Q1, FHFA house price index, S&P/CS 20-city home price index, and speeches from key Federal Reserve officials [4].

Recent Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce and COMEX futures falling to $3,299.70 per ounce, marking a nearly 1.5% decrease [1] - Domestic gold prices have also adjusted, with wholesale market prices in Shenzhen decreasing from 792 yuan per gram to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% [3] Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations - Short-term drivers include a stronger US dollar and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have diminished gold's appeal [4] - Easing geopolitical risks, such as President Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and the lack of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine situation, have reduced safe-haven demand [5] - Technical adjustments following a rapid price increase have also contributed to the recent downturn [6] Market Reactions and Consumer Trends - Consumer purchasing behavior is showing a divide, with smaller jewelry items gaining popularity while larger purchases, like wedding gold, are being approached with caution due to high prices [8] - There is an increase in gold recycling as some holders are selling old jewelry to cash in on the price drop [8] Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are waiting for lower entry points, such as below 700 yuan per gram, while institutions view the current adjustment as a buying opportunity [9] - Wall Street quantitative funds are leaning towards short positions, whereas Asian investors are buying on dips [10] Future Price Predictions - Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will fluctuate within a range of $3,300 to $3,350, with $3,320 as a key support level; a drop below this could lead to a decline to $3,280 [11] - Long-term projections from institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that gold prices could reach between $3,500 and $4,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank purchases, normalized geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credibility [12]