Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the new tobacco industry, particularly focusing on the new oral nicotine pouch segment [3]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing clear trends driven by supply-demand dynamics, leading to accelerated growth in the new tobacco sector, with international tobacco giants increasing their investments [2]. - New oral nicotine products, which combine characteristics of heated non-combustible and vaporized electronic cigarettes, are gaining popularity due to their flavor variety and convenience, presenting a significant market opportunity [3][58]. - The report highlights that the new oral nicotine segment is expected to have the highest gross margins among new tobacco products, making it an attractive area for investment [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Oral Tobacco Industry - The global penetration rate for oral tobacco is currently at 1%, with a projected CAGR of 27% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [18][58]. - New oral nicotine products are expected to grow at a CAGR of 35% during the same period, with the market size reaching €15 billion by 2028 [18]. 2. Traditional Oral Tobacco - Traditional oral tobacco products have a focused audience and are primarily used in specific scenarios, with historical roots in Sweden and North America [54]. 3. New Oral Tobacco - The introduction of nicotine pouches, such as ZYN by Swedish Match, has marked the beginning of a new market segment, with significant growth observed in the U.S. market [58]. - The new oral tobacco products are characterized by their non-tobacco composition, lower health risks, and a variety of flavors, which cater to diverse consumer preferences [58][61]. 4. Industry Leaders - **Philip Morris International (PMI)**: After acquiring Swedish Match for $16 billion, PMI has established itself as a global leader in the new oral tobacco market, with a market share of 42% [76][78]. - **Altria**: Focused on the U.S. market, Altria's new oral tobacco brand "On!" has seen a CAGR of 49% from 2021 to 2024 [81]. - **British American Tobacco (BAT)**: Concentrating on the European market, BAT holds a significant share in the new oral tobacco segment, particularly in six core markets [84]. - **Haypp Group**: A leading online sales platform for nicotine pouches, Haypp is expected to achieve a revenue of 5 billion Swedish Krona in 2025, reflecting the industry's high growth potential [90][93]. 5. Valuation Review - The new oral tobacco segment is becoming a crucial valuation driver for companies in the tobacco industry, with significant investments and acquisitions indicating strong future prospects [3][22].

Core Viewpoint - The new oral tobacco-free products are expected to have a favorable tax environment and less intense competition compared to vaping products, leading to the highest gross margins among new tobacco categories, attracting significant interest from international tobacco companies [1] Group 1: New Oral Tobacco Products - New oral tobacco products combine characteristics of heated non-combustible (HNB) and vaping products, addressing traditional oral tobacco's limitations such as high acceptance barriers and storage challenges [1] - The invention of new oral tobacco products has sparked global popularity, with the potential to replace traditional products and attract a new customer base through diverse flavor offerings [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The market for new oral tobacco products has low entry barriers, but the market share remains concentrated among international tobacco companies, with no expected deterioration in market structure [2] - Factors supporting the current market structure include established customer bases and sales channels of traditional oral tobacco companies, a stable regulatory environment, and a short supply chain that enhances brand control over production [2] Group 3: Industry Catalysts - Philip Morris International's $16 billion acquisition of Swedish Match, the parent company of the leading brand ZYN, marks a significant direct investment in the new oral tobacco segment, reinforcing the industry's growth potential [3] - The FDA's approval of ZYN's 20 products for market release in January 2025, along with positive performance indicators from online distributors, further validates the industry's high growth outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new tobacco concept has experienced significant fluctuations, with several companies in the sector seeing notable stock price increases [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Guoguang Electric and Yingqu Technology reached their daily limit increase in stock prices [1] - Companies such as Jucheng Co., Bosheng Technology, Hongxin Electronics, and Green Precision also showed strong performance with substantial price increases [1]

Core Insights - The new tobacco concept is experiencing significant fluctuations, with companies like Guoguang Electric and Yingqu Technology hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1] Company Performance - Guoguang Electric and Yingqu Technology have reached the daily limit up, showcasing robust investor confidence in the new tobacco sector [1] - Other companies such as Jucheng Co., Boshou Technology, Hongxin Electronics, and Green Precision are also showing notable gains, reflecting a broader positive trend in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is actively preparing for the launch of its first experimental satellite, expected by the end of 2025, although the exact date may vary due to external factors such as approvals and launch site scheduling [1] Company Overview - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of environmentally friendly packaging materials [1] - The company operates in four main business areas: research, production, and sales of specialty eco-friendly paper; research, production, and sales of printed products; deep processing of industrial hemp and application scenario development; and research, production, and sales of new tobacco products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is leveraging its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, aiming to capitalize on new industry trends and recover from previous regulatory challenges [1] Company Overview - Smoore International possesses strong R&D capabilities, particularly in ceramic core technology, and has established deep partnerships with major global tobacco companies [1] - The company is transitioning its business model from a device supplier to a tobacco business, opening new growth avenues with the launch of HNB products in collaboration with British American Tobacco [1][2] Industry Insights - The HNB segment is expected to accelerate its development, with a low penetration rate of approximately 6% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The global traditional tobacco sales are declining, making new tobacco products a viable solution for market recovery, with 2025 anticipated as a pivotal year for major international tobacco companies [2] Market Dynamics - The HNB market is currently in a phase where supply is creating demand, with potential for increased penetration in large markets like the U.S. and China [2] - If HNB penetration in the U.S. reaches 15%, it could correspond to an incremental market size of $19.9 billion and a sales volume of 49.7 billion sticks [2] Product Development - The collaboration between Smoore and British American Tobacco on the Glo Hilo product combines their strengths, with Glo Hilo expected to compete effectively against Philip Morris's IQOS [2] - The latest Glo Hilo product features a quick preheating time of 3-5 seconds and high flavor fidelity, significantly enhancing consumer experience [2] Financial Projections - Revenue sharing for Glo Hilo is projected to be in the single to double-digit percentage range, with expected earnings per stick ranging from 0.04 to 0.11 RMB [2] - If HNB penetration increases to 12% and Glo Hilo market share reaches 25%, Smoore's annual profits from HNB could reach 6 to 7 billion RMB [2] Traditional Business Outlook - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [3] - Positive changes in the industry include FDA approvals for new flavors and increased enforcement against illegal products, which may benefit Smoore's vaping business [3] Long-term Strategy - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaping, along with special-purpose vaping, to build a sustainable future [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - Smoore International is the largest electronic vaporizer supplier globally, with growth potential unlocked by its technology positioning in HNB (Heated Not Burn) products [3][6] - The company's core business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory shifts in the industry and increasing market share among major clients [3][6] - The HNB business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected annual growth rate in the double digits and a current global penetration rate of less than 6% [3][7] Summary by Sections Introduction - Smoore International leverages its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, marking a new phase in the industry [6][17] - The company has transitioned from a pure equipment supplier to a tobacco business model, opening new growth avenues [6][17] Core Business - The HNB segment is poised for accelerated development, with a low penetration rate and high barriers to entry, indicating substantial growth potential [7][28] - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch Glo Hilo combines both companies' strengths, enhancing market competitiveness [7][28] Performance Outlook - The revenue-sharing model for Glo Hilo is expected to yield significant profits, with projections estimating annual profits for Smoore's HNB business to reach 6-7 billion RMB if market penetration increases [8][9] - The U.S. market presents a significant opportunity, with potential market size increases if HNB penetration rises to 15% [8][37] Traditional Business - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [9][20] - Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more favorable, allowing for a recovery in the vaporizer business [9][20] Long-term Strategic Direction - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaporization, aiming for long-term growth across multiple sectors [10][19]

Core Insights - The global oral tobacco market is projected to reach $11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.57%, and is expected to grow to $25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2] - The North American and European markets are experiencing high growth rates, while the Asian and African markets are in early stages, indicating significant potential for rapid development in emerging markets [1][2] - The FDA's approval of flavored oral tobacco products is anticipated to act as a catalyst for market growth, potentially increasing the overall market ceiling [1][4] Market Overview - The retail market for oral tobacco is highly concentrated, with Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [2] - In 2024, the North American oral tobacco market is expected to reach $8.775 billion, growing by 58.30% year-on-year, while the European market is projected to reach $2.415 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 56.12% [1][2] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to be 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales accounting for 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales, including brands like Velo and Grizzly, are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%, with U.S. sales surging by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are deemed to have lower harmful components compared to traditional cigarettes and most smokeless tobacco products, aligning with public health standards [4] - The approval of flavored products is expected to enhance market growth and expand the market's potential [4] Industry Opportunities - Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical is increasing its production capacity to 200 tons per year, focusing on high-purity nicotine for new tobacco products, which positions the company to benefit from the expanding oral tobacco market [5][6] - The company has received various certifications, including FDA PMTA approval, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the oral tobacco supply chain include Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical (300233.SZ) and Run Du Co., Ltd. (002923.SZ) [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The global oral tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of USD 11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.57%, and expected to reach USD 25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The North American market is expected to reach USD 8.775 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 58.30%, and projected to grow to USD 19.449 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.01% [1] - The European market is projected to reach USD 2.415 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 56.12%, and expected to grow to USD 5.608 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 23.45% [1] - The top three companies in the oral tobacco retail market in 2024 are Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group, holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [1] Summary by Sections Market Growth - The oral tobacco market is expected to see significant growth in both established and emerging markets, with North America and Europe leading in growth rates [1] - Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are in the early stages but are anticipated to realize their market potential rapidly as the oral tobacco market develops [1] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to reach 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales at 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, with U.S. sales significantly increasing by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are expected to catalyze market growth due to their lower harmful component levels compared to traditional tobacco products [3] - The approval of flavored products by the FDA is anticipated to further enhance market growth and expand the overall market potential [3] Industry Supply Chain - Jincheng Pharmaceutical is positioned as a key supplier in the nicotine market, with an increase in production capacity to 200 tons per year, which is expected to positively impact sales and market positioning [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies within the oral tobacco supply chain, including Jincheng Pharmaceutical and others in the vaping and tobacco supply sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring the new tobacco sector and is adapting to market and regulatory changes to enhance its product offerings and services [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on the new tobacco field and is tracking overseas product forms based on market and policy regulations [1] - The company aims to leverage its industrial advantages to provide more high-quality products and services to customers [1] - The company is looking to further expand its market space for products [1]