Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, British American Tobacco anticipates revenue growth of 1-2% and adjusted operating profit growth of 1.5%-2.5%, indicating strong resilience [1] - The U.S. market is expected to recover revenue and profit growth due to enhanced delivery capabilities of combustible tobacco products and the Velo Plus brand [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export value of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Tobacco Products - Velo is the fastest-growing product in the oral tobacco category, with a market share increase of 270 basis points to 14.3% and a modern oral tobacco share increase of 350 basis points to 29.7% [2] - The U.S. market saw a total volume share increase of 550 basis points to 11.9%, driven by high trial and retention rates [2] - Glo's market share decreased by 90 basis points due to intense competition in Japan, but the launch of Glo Hilo in Serbia showed promising results [2] E-Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but the U.S. and Canadian markets are affected by illegal products [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the phased launch of the Vuse Ultra product [3] - Long-term goals include revenue growth of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Market Performance - The top five export destinations for Chinese e-cigarettes accounted for 65.96% of total exports, with the U.S. being the largest market at $3.34 billion [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese e-cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 1-2% for the fiscal year 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to rise by 1.5%-2.5% [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export amount of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Industry - British American Tobacco's revenue for the first half of 2025 is better than expected, with strong performance in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe regions [1] - The modern oral tobacco product Velo is experiencing rapid growth, increasing its market share by 270 basis points to 14.3% [2] - Glo's market share has decreased by 90 basis points, primarily due to competition in Japan, but Glo Hilo's launch in Serbia shows promising results [2] Electronic Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but faces challenges from illegal products in the U.S. and Canada [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the launch of Vuse Ultra [3] - Long-term goals include a revenue growth target of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Export Data - In the first four months of 2025, China's electronic cigarette exports totaled $3.242 billion, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for $334 million [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese electronic cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected acceleration in the new tobacco sector for British American Tobacco in the second half of 2025, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco products and the phased launch of new products [2][6] - The 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic brands in personal care and outdoor sports, with significant growth potential for companies like Morning Glory and others leveraging IP strategies [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to gradually recover as consumer confidence improves, with many companies currently valued at historical lows. Key players to watch include custom furniture leaders like Oppein and Sophia [6][10] Paper and Packaging - As of June 6, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with white cardboard prices increasing slightly. The report suggests a cautious outlook due to overall weak terminal demand [6][54] - The paper industry saw a 1.6% year-on-year decline in revenue from January to April 2025, but fixed asset investment increased by 7.6% during the same period [66][68] Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that domestic brands in personal care are rapidly expanding their market presence, particularly through platforms like Douyin. Companies such as Dekang and Baiya are highlighted for their growth potential [6][8] Export Chain - The report indicates a robust outlook for export-oriented companies, with shipping costs rising due to increased demand for goods from China. Companies like Zhongxin and Zhejiang Nature are recommended for investment [6][8] New Tobacco - British American Tobacco's new tobacco segment is projected to see significant growth in the latter half of 2025, with a full-year growth expectation of mid-single digits, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco and the introduction of new products [6][8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable sales increases during the 618 shopping festival. Brands like Anta and Li Ning are recommended for their strong performance [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Nobon Co., Ltd. (603238), marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - Nobon Co., Ltd. is positioned as a global leader in high-end differentiated water-jet non-woven materials, benefiting from the expanding and upgrading demand in the personal care and household cleaning market in China, alongside a golden window for new downstream products like oral tobacco [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +26% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 130 million, 157 million, and 189 million yuan respectively [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Nobon Co., Ltd. has over 20 years of experience in the water-jet non-woven fabric sector, establishing a comprehensive industrial chain that includes raw materials, products, and branding [7][17]. - The company has developed innovative products such as the "Sanlyzox" biodegradable water-jet material, becoming one of the few global companies to achieve mass production of such materials [7][24]. 2. Financial Performance and Profitability - The company is entering a phase of profitability recovery, with expected revenues of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of 95 million yuan, up 15% [6][38]. - In Q1 2025, revenues are projected to grow by 39% year-on-year, indicating a strong upward trend [6][39]. 3. Market Dynamics - The non-woven fabric market in China is experiencing a rebalancing of supply and demand, with a narrowing gap in production and consumption, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [7][70]. - The demand for non-woven products is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased hygiene awareness post-pandemic and diverse consumer needs [74]. 4. New Product Opportunities - The oral tobacco market is anticipated to see explosive growth, with the demand for high-end non-woven materials for nicotine pouches expected to rise, providing additional profit elasticity for the company [8][20]. - Nobon Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend without significant capacity constraints, as the material usage per product is minimal [8][20]. 5. Investment Analysis - The report forecasts a target market capitalization of 3.9 billion yuan for the company, representing a 37% upside from its market value as of June 3, 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and improve its dividend payout ratio, reflecting its robust financial health [62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - Japan is the largest single market for HNB globally, with expectations that Glo Hilo's performance in Japan will reflect on the global market [2][8] - The market size for HNB in Japan is projected to reach 64.5 billion units in 2024, accounting for 36% of global sales [2][23] - The penetration rate of HNB in Japan is expected to increase by 4.6 percentage points to 43% in 2024, as traditional cigarette sales decline [2][23] - The competitive landscape in Japan mirrors that of the global market, with IQOS holding over 70% market share, indicating significant growth potential for Glo Hilo [2][8] Summary by Sections Market Size - The HNB market in Japan is projected to sell 64.5 billion units in 2024, representing 36% of global sales [2][23] - The global HNB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.7%, reaching 178.6 billion units by 2024 [18] Penetration Rate - HNB penetration in Japan is anticipated to rise to 43% in 2024, reflecting a shift from traditional cigarettes [2][23] - The current global HNB penetration rate is approximately 6%, indicating substantial room for growth [8][34] Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics in Japan are similar to the global market, with major players like PMI, British American Tobacco, and Japan Tobacco setting ambitious growth targets for HNB products [6][18] - PMI leads the market with a 72% share, followed by British American Tobacco at 12% and Japan Tobacco at 6% [18][22] Growth Potential - Glo Hilo's entry into the Japanese market is expected to enhance its market share significantly, given the anticipated positive feedback and the established competitive landscape [2][8] - The overall HNB industry is projected to experience annual growth rates of 10%-20% as penetration rates increase [34]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The new tobacco market continues to grow, with heated tobacco products leading in market size and nicotine pouches experiencing the fastest growth [2][3] - The global tobacco market is undergoing significant changes, with Japan's tobacco business expanding rapidly [4] - The global supply of tobacco leaves is facing shortages, leading to widespread price increases across the industry [14] Summary by Sections Electronic Cigarettes - In 2024, global e-cigarette sales are projected to reach $23.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [3] - Sales of disposable e-cigarettes grew by 18.9% to 840 million units, generating $6.42 billion in revenue, up 19.6% [3] - Open system e-cigarettes saw sales of 85.16 million devices and 12.23 million liters of e-liquid, with revenues of $2.62 billion and $5.49 billion respectively [3] Traditional Tobacco Products - Traditional oral tobacco products, including chewing and snuff tobacco, are experiencing a decline, with 2024 sales expected to drop by 0.8% to 115,000 tons [3] - Revenue from traditional oral tobacco is projected to decrease by 0.1% to $13.82 billion [3] Nicotine Pouches - Nicotine pouch sales are expected to grow by 36.9% to 21.23 billion pouches in 2024, with revenue reaching $11.25 billion, a 51.0% increase [3] - The United States leads in nicotine pouch sales with 13.88 billion pouches sold [3] Heated Tobacco Products - Sales of heated tobacco products are projected to grow by 12.7% to $38.85 billion in 2024 [3] - The volume of heated tobacco devices sold is expected to increase by 11.7% to 45.26 million units, with revenue rising by 14.7% to $2.44 billion [3] Company Performance - Philip Morris International reported a net income of $14.66 billion from its smoke-free products, a 14.2% increase, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [5] - British American Tobacco's Vuse e-cigarette sales declined by 5.9% to 616 million units, impacted by illegal disposable e-cigarettes in the U.S. [6] - Japan Tobacco's Ploom brand heated tobacco sales grew by 24.2% to 218,000 boxes, primarily driven by the Ploom X model [7] Market Dynamics - The global tobacco market is experiencing intense competition, with multinational companies showing divergent growth patterns [4] - The supply chain for tobacco is under pressure due to climate-related shortages and rising prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The electronic cigarette sector has regained market attention, with stocks like Smoore International experiencing significant price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [1][9]. Industry Overview - The global tobacco market remains dominated by traditional cigarettes, which account for over 80% of the market, while new tobacco products, including heated not burned (HNB) and electronic cigarettes, represent a growing segment valued at $76.9 billion, approximately 8% of the market [1]. - The number of smokers aged 15 and above globally is around 1.25 billion, with a penetration rate of about 15.6%, indicating substantial room for growth in new tobacco product adoption [1]. Market Segmentation - Electronic cigarettes and HNB products are the two main categories of new tobacco, with global market shares of 28% and 45%, respectively [2]. - The global market for e-vapour products is valued at $21.2 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2018 to 2023, while HNB products have a market size of $34.5 billion and a CAGR of 23.3% during the same period [2][3]. Company Performance - Smoore International has shown rapid revenue growth from 2016 to 2021, increasing from 710 million to 13.76 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 81%. However, the company faced challenges in 2022 due to regulatory pressures in China and the U.S. [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 11.799 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.56% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - Smoore has been proactive in developing HNB products since 2010 and has established a dedicated division for HNB, acquiring multiple patents and technological capabilities [6]. - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch the Glo Hilo series is anticipated to enhance Smoore's HNB business and overall market position [7]. Future Outlook - The Glo Hilo product is set to launch in Japan and expand into European markets, with expectations of significant profit growth starting in 2025 [8]. - The regulatory environment for electronic cigarettes is stabilizing, which may benefit compliant companies like Smoore, enhancing their market share [8][9].

轻工制造 GLO 日本试销推进，新型烟草趋势向上 投资要点： 【周观点】5 月 12 日日本 GLO 官网公布新品 HILO 信息，新品预期将于 6 月 9 日在日本宫城县试销限定发售，若日本市场试销良好，产品力进一 步验证，思摩尔 HNB 业务成长空间有望进一步打开；本周中美贸易冲突暂 缓，优质低估出口链、以及前期受外销业务担忧的包装龙头迎来布局窗口； 出口情绪好转带动包装纸企涨价潮，玖龙、山鹰、理文等集体发布提价函。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 5/20 7/31 10/11 12/22 3/4 5/15 轻工制造 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) | | --- | --- | | lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) | | wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李含稚(S0210524060005) | | lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn | | 华福证券 轻工制 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周北向重仓 50 领涨；市场动速方面，风格轮动速度继续高位震荡；行业板块方面，金融板块 领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准；风格方面，价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格； 主题方面，新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 价值稳健领涨风格——W109 市场观察 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：北向重仓 50 领涨 市场动速：风格轮动速度继续高位震荡 行业板块：金融板块领涨行业，可选消费龙头显著超额行业基准 风格跟踪：价值类风格占优，价值稳健领涨风格 主题热点：新型烟草、低碳领袖 30 涨幅靠前 指数名称及代码 价值稳健 861303.CJ 新型烟草 862302.CJ 指数走势 资料来源：Wind，长江证券 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·商贸零售 商贸零售行业深度报告 烟草行业专题报告：新型烟草继续增长，巨 头加码无烟产品 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：监管政策不确定，新产品推广不及预期，市场竞争加剧等。 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 2024/5/20 2024/9/17 2025/1/15 2025/5/15 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美 出口核心标的小商品城》 2025-05-12 《关注五一旅游出行高峰，景区公司 天气全梳理》 2025-04-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 全球烟草：传统卷 ...