Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 36,045 kilograms, with an increase of 36 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 782.80 yuan per gram, with a high of 785.82 yuan and a low of 782.58 yuan, currently trading at 783.56 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.08% [1] - The trading volume for the day is 191,341 contracts, with open interest at 215,212 contracts, showing a decrease of 3,440 contracts in daily open interest [1] Group 2 - The South Korean Minister of Finance, Koo Yun-cheol, stated that South Korea has received a commitment from the U.S. regarding trade treatment in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors, ensuring that it will not face worse conditions than other countries [2] - Koo mentioned that South Korea has secured the most favorable treatment in the latest trade agreement, positioning it on par with Japan and the EU in upcoming tariff decisions [2]

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Report Highlights 1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume was 1,033,119 lots, and the open interest was 381,048 lots, with a net increase of 1,200 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: After continuous price increases, the spot price stabilized. The strong performance of polysilicon drove industrial silicon to fluctuate strongly. The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest产区 offset the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand improved marginally. The production schedule of polysilicon increased slightly in July, and the demand for organic silicon remained stable. In the short term, the fundamental driving force was limited. The strong rise of polysilicon may drive the current price to continue to increase, but from the perspective of average cost and the cancellation price of previous warehouse receipts, 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton is a resistance range to be challenged. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,354 lots, a net increase of 142 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N-type dense material was 44,000 yuan [5]. - In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of industrial silicon was 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553-grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441-grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421-grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price remained stable overall [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract price continued to be strong. The Si2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 1.417 million lots and an open interest of 397,000 lots, a net decrease of 6,237 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The output in the second week of July remained above 70,000 tons, and the monthly output would remain above 310,000 tons. The demand increment in July was less than 20,000 tons. The futures warehouse receipts began to increase, and the short - term trend was mainly a strong oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures main contract price continued to be strong. The Si2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, up 1.04%, with a trading volume of 1.417 million lots and an open interest of 397,000 lots, a net decrease of 6,237 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 and Sichuan 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 and Xinjiang 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price of Sichuan 421 was 9000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week of July, the industrial silicon output remained above 70,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest during the wet season made up for the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output would remain above 310,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in July increased to 100,000 - 110,000 tons, and the operating rate of organic silicon increased slightly, but the overall monthly demand increment was less than 20,000 tons. The futures warehouse receipts began to increase, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The previous warehouse receipts entered a continuous reduction range between 8800 - 9000. Currently, the industrial policy formed a bullish expectation, and the spot price increase continued to stimulate the futures price. The short - term trend was mainly a strong oscillation [4]. 3.4 Market News - On July 15, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,258 lots, a net increase of 165 lots compared with the previous trading day [5].

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 1,299,756 kilograms, with an increase of 4,093 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main silver futures opened at 8,716 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 8,765 yuan, and dropped to a low of 8,662 yuan, closing at 8,762 yuan, reflecting a daily decline of 0.54% [1] Group 2 - President Donald Trump expressed concerns regarding his "massive and beautiful" spending bill and the unfair auto trade with Japan [2] - Trump indicated uncertainty about passing the spending bill by the target date of July 4, stating that a delay could lead to perceptions of failure [2] - Trump emphasized the need for a person who can lower interest rates to enter the Federal Reserve, especially in light of the upcoming $9 trillion U.S. debt [2] - Trump criticized Japan for not purchasing American cars while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, suggesting Japan should import more U.S. oil and other products [2]

Report Information - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the third week of June, the industrial silicon output was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. Recently, the expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and出库, dropping to 266,300 tons [4]. - The spot price remained stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The technical breakthrough and production cut news resonated, stimulating a sharp intraday rise in industrial silicon. However, the production cuts had not been implemented, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged significantly behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased marginally, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The improvement in fundamentals was limited. The production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. 2. Market News - On June 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,234 lots, a net decrease of 29 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in May 2025 was 53,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48% [5].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon has stopped falling and stabilized, but the supply-demand imbalance has not significantly improved. With high supply and high inventory limiting the upside and cost and current price providing support, the market has reached a weak balance in the short term and will continue to operate weakly [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%, with a trading volume of 292,932 lots and an open interest of 303,119 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, with the price center of 553 at 8,300 yuan/ton and that of 421 at 8,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The supply of industrial silicon has been increasing for 4 consecutive weeks, with a weekly output of 76,600 tons in the third week of June and a monthly output exceeding 320,000 tons. The demand remains unchanged, with domestic demand at 260,000 tons and monthly exports at 50,000 tons. The spot and futures inventory exceeds 800,000 tons, but the continuous cancellation of futures warehouse receipts provides support. The market is expected to continue its weak operation [4]. 2. Market News - On June 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 54,184 lots, a net decrease of 439 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in April 2025 was 60,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.64% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.19%. The overall overseas market is relatively stable [5].