Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] - Pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but the price is expected to remain weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, but short - term prices are expected to remain strong [4] - Log: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1][5] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory influence their prices. The report provides corresponding operation suggestions for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined slightly, with a risk of short - term downward break. New cotton cost provides some support, but price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable with stable demand. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral. Domestic sugar prices are weakly oscillating. The market's focus is on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices rose significantly. The inventory decreased year - on - year. Short - term prices are strong, but the long - term de - stocking situation is the key trading point [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, and butadiene rubber futures prices rose slightly. Supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly increasing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to rise. The inventory decreased. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [6] Log - Futures prices are weakly operating. Supply may remain low, demand supports prices, and low inventory also provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index surpassing 163 and copper futures reaching new highs, while the international oil market stabilizes [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market is showing signs of recovery, with significant movements in various sectors, particularly in copper and oil [1] - The Wenhua Commodity Index has risen above 163, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] Group 2: Investment Tools and Resources - The Sina Finance APP provides comprehensive coverage of real-time market data across all major futures products, ensuring low latency and accurate pricing information [4] - The APP offers advanced analytical tools, including K-line charts and customizable alert functions, to help investors make informed trading decisions [4][8] Group 3: Information and Insights - The APP delivers 24/7 global financial news, allowing investors to stay ahead of market dynamics and understand the implications of macro policies and industry news [5] - It integrates critical background information, such as changes in India's stance on Russian oil procurement and optimistic forecasts from Saudi Aramco executives regarding demand [5] Group 4: Trading Experience - The Sina Finance APP facilitates seamless trading by connecting users with multiple leading futures companies, enabling a smooth process from account opening to real-time trading [6][7] - The platform's distributed trading gateway supports high concurrency, ensuring a stable trading experience even during market volatility [7] Group 5: Analytical Features - The APP includes unique features like "capital flow" and "position analysis" to monitor major holdings, providing essential insights for trading decisions [8] - The "Xina AI Assistant" simplifies complex futures reports into concise summaries, highlighting risk and opportunity points for quick decision-making [8] - A vibrant futures community within the APP allows users to share insights and experiences, enhancing collective knowledge and decision-making [8]

Core Insights - The shipping index in the European futures market has increased by 3.58% [1] - Canola futures have decreased by 2.93% [1] - Butadiene rubber futures have decreased by 2.39% [1] - Palm oil futures have decreased by 2.22% [1] - Soybean oil futures have decreased by 2.08% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with notable gains in certain commodities and declines in others [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Apple futures increased by over 3% [1] - Glass futures rose by more than 2% [1] - Iron ore, polysilicon, PTA, soybean meal, and short fibers all saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Declining Commodities - Shanghai silver and gold futures fell nearly 3% [1] - Red dates, butadiene rubber, palm oil, and methanol experienced declines of over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest warehouse receipt data for rubber futures from the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates stable and fluctuating trends in various rubber categories, reflecting market dynamics and inventory levels [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipt Data - The warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber futures stand at 3,050 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period [1] - The factory warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber are at 5,870 tons, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for natural rubber futures total 123,310 tons, showing a decrease of 710 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for No. 20 rubber futures amount to 43,849 tons, reflecting an increase of 1,209 tons from the previous period [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed positive performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber opening at 10,905.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 11,115.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.73% [1] - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic polybutadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 50-150 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a more cautious market sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The futures warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber remained stable at 8,750 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - Southwest Futures noted that the price of butadiene has decreased, slightly narrowing the processing losses for synthetic rubber, while the weekly capacity utilization rate for high-grade polybutadiene rubber in China was around 74%, which is relatively high year-on-year [2] - According to Greeen DGH Futures, the slight recovery in synthetic rubber prices was supported by a temporary reduction in domestic production due to maintenance, alongside improved downstream demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][2]. Price Movements - As of October 13, the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45% [1]. - The main 20 rubber futures contract NR2511 reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The main butadiene rubber futures contract BR2511 closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.67% [1]. Market Drivers - The recent price drop is primarily driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions [2]. - The impact of US-China trade friction has led to increased pressure on global financial markets and heightened volatility in investor sentiment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in futures prices for natural and synthetic rubber has outpaced that of spot prices [3]. - Synthetic rubber prices are more significantly affected by weakening crude oil prices, resulting in larger declines compared to natural rubber [3]. - Despite adverse weather conditions, including frequent typhoons and continuous rainfall in major production areas like Hainan, Yunnan, Thailand, and Vietnam, the market has not reacted positively [3]. - Instead, the market anticipates a concentrated release of supply in the fourth quarter, further intensifying downward price pressure [3].

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, 2023, the main natural rubber futures contract (RU2601) fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45%. The 20 rubber futures (NR2511) reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51%, while butadiene rubber (BR2511) closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, down 2.67% [1]. - The decline in rubber prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions, with the global financial market under pressure due to trade friction news [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the natural rubber sector, the easing of rainfall in Southeast Asia post-holiday is expected to enhance new rubber supply, putting pressure on raw material prices and weakening cost support [2]. - Demand for tires has weakened, with a notable reduction in orders from EU markets due to anti-dumping policies and maintenance shutdowns during the National Day holiday, leading to slower inventory depletion [2]. - Concerns over domestic demand have intensified due to renewed US-China trade tensions, contributing to an expectation of oversupply in the global natural rubber balance sheet [2]. Group 3: Synthetic Rubber Insights - The tension in US-China trade relations has negatively impacted tire demand and caused a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $60 per barrel, which has weakened cost support for butadiene rubber [3]. - The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber is expected to expand passively due to the recovery of profits from naphtha cracking to ethylene, leading to further price pressure [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Seasonal factors are still relevant in the current weak market, with potential supply constraints due to El Niño affecting rubber tapping efficiency in key regions [3]. - Despite the current oversupply situation, there may be some support for rubber prices as domestic production in Yunnan and Hainan is expected to decline by late November [3]. - The market may see a pulse of demand driven by pre-holiday stocking and increased exports, particularly in the automotive sector, which could provide some support for rubber prices in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 5: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Current valuations for natural rubber are not high, suggesting limited further downside, but the short-term potential for a significant rebound remains low due to the supply-demand imbalance [4]. - Synthetic rubber, particularly butadiene, faces high supply pressure, and despite some substitution demand due to low price differentials, the overall supply pressure is expected to keep synthetic rubber in a weak position [4]. - The overarching theme is that the rubber sector is characterized by an oversupply situation, with macroeconomic events, especially US tariff policies, likely to continue influencing market trends [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for nickel and other futures contracts, effective from October 14, 2025 [2] Group 1: Margin Ratio Adjustments - The margin ratio for nickel and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 9% for hedging positions and 10% for general positions [2] - The margin ratio for butadiene rubber and natural rubber futures contracts will be set at 8% for hedging positions and 9% for general positions [2] Group 2: Price Fluctuation Limits - The price fluctuation limit for nickel and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 8% [2] - The price fluctuation limit for butadiene rubber and natural rubber futures contracts will be set at 7% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Provisions - Adjustments to the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits may occur based on the provisions outlined in Article 13 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange Risk Control Management Measures [2] - Other matters related to margin trading and price fluctuation limits will be executed according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange Risk Control Management Measures [2]

Core Points - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for certain futures contracts effective from October 14, 2025 [1] Group 1: Margin Requirements and Price Limits - Nickel and tin futures contracts will have their price limit adjusted to 8%, with the margin requirement for hedging positions set at 9% and for general positions at 10% [1] - Butadiene rubber and natural rubber futures contracts will see their price limit adjusted to 7%, with the margin requirement for hedging positions set at 8% and for general positions at 9% [1] - Adjustments may occur based on the risk management regulations of the Shanghai Futures Exchange if specific conditions are met [1]