Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides analyses and operation suggestions for various soft commodities, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market conditions such as supply - demand changes, production progress, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct, with the position of the main contract decreasing. Spot sales were average, and the basis was stable. As of the end of December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 110.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.96 million tons. Sales progress was fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, demand was generally stable. As of December 25th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang was implemented, but the reduction data was lower than market expectations. Spinning mills still had demand for raw materials, with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the short - term focus was on the production expectation difference in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress was fast, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, while Thailand's production progress was slow and the output was lower than expected. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. In December, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons; sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 1.0571 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62,100 tons. The sales volume decreased significantly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the production progress was slow. If the output cannot increase later, the futures price will repair upwards. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking price of some soft semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and purchased less from farmers. As merchants started to stock up for the Spring Festival, the cold - storage trading volume increased. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 287,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the sentiment of hoarding among traders and farmers was strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all decreased. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand varied. Globally, the natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan about to fully stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, with the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, the finished - product inventory of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tires continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 548,300 tons, with both the bonded area and general trade inventory increasing; the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In general, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is stable, and market sentiment is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp price increased slightly. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,500 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 billion tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory - accumulation trend. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support to coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas quotes of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have both increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the price of base paper has relatively weak follow - up increases. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable. In terms of supply, the overseas quote decreased, and the domestic spot price remained weak, with the short - term arrival volume expected to decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports across the country was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. As of January 2nd, the total log inventory at ports across the country was 2.67 billion cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory was relatively low, with relatively low inventory pressure. Overall, the low inventory provided some support to the price. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on December 24, 2025, with significant gains in some commodities while others experienced declines [3][7]. Price Movements - Silver futures rose over 4%, while nickel and caustic soda increased by more than 2%. PX and copper also saw gains exceeding 1% [3][7]. - On the downside, butadiene rubber fell by more than 2%, and tin, ethylene glycol (EG), and coking coal dropped over 1% [3][7]. Trading Data - The trading volume and open interest for various contracts were reported, indicating active trading in specific commodities. For instance, the contract for silver (护银2602 M) had a trading volume of 881,059 and an open interest of 360,590 [8]. - Other notable contracts included lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605 M) with a trading volume of 6,351 and an open interest of 670,874, and the contract for copper (国际铜2601 M) with a trading volume of 5 and an open interest of 3,184 [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] - Pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but the price is expected to remain weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, but short - term prices are expected to remain strong [4] - Log: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1][5] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory influence their prices. The report provides corresponding operation suggestions for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined slightly, with a risk of short - term downward break. New cotton cost provides some support, but price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable with stable demand. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral. Domestic sugar prices are weakly oscillating. The market's focus is on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices rose significantly. The inventory decreased year - on - year. Short - term prices are strong, but the long - term de - stocking situation is the key trading point [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, and butadiene rubber futures prices rose slightly. Supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly increasing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to rise. The inventory decreased. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [6] Log - Futures prices are weakly operating. Supply may remain low, demand supports prices, and low inventory also provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wenhua Commodity Index surpassing 163 and copper futures reaching new highs, while the international oil market stabilizes [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market is showing signs of recovery, with significant movements in various sectors, particularly in copper and oil [1] - The Wenhua Commodity Index has risen above 163, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] Group 2: Investment Tools and Resources - The Sina Finance APP provides comprehensive coverage of real-time market data across all major futures products, ensuring low latency and accurate pricing information [4] - The APP offers advanced analytical tools, including K-line charts and customizable alert functions, to help investors make informed trading decisions [4][8] Group 3: Information and Insights - The APP delivers 24/7 global financial news, allowing investors to stay ahead of market dynamics and understand the implications of macro policies and industry news [5] - It integrates critical background information, such as changes in India's stance on Russian oil procurement and optimistic forecasts from Saudi Aramco executives regarding demand [5] Group 4: Trading Experience - The Sina Finance APP facilitates seamless trading by connecting users with multiple leading futures companies, enabling a smooth process from account opening to real-time trading [6][7] - The platform's distributed trading gateway supports high concurrency, ensuring a stable trading experience even during market volatility [7] Group 5: Analytical Features - The APP includes unique features like "capital flow" and "position analysis" to monitor major holdings, providing essential insights for trading decisions [8] - The "Xina AI Assistant" simplifies complex futures reports into concise summaries, highlighting risk and opportunity points for quick decision-making [8] - A vibrant futures community within the APP allows users to share insights and experiences, enhancing collective knowledge and decision-making [8]

Core Insights - The shipping index in the European futures market has increased by 3.58% [1] - Canola futures have decreased by 2.93% [1] - Butadiene rubber futures have decreased by 2.39% [1] - Palm oil futures have decreased by 2.22% [1] - Soybean oil futures have decreased by 2.08% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with notable gains in certain commodities and declines in others [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Apple futures increased by over 3% [1] - Glass futures rose by more than 2% [1] - Iron ore, polysilicon, PTA, soybean meal, and short fibers all saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Declining Commodities - Shanghai silver and gold futures fell nearly 3% [1] - Red dates, butadiene rubber, palm oil, and methanol experienced declines of over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest warehouse receipt data for rubber futures from the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates stable and fluctuating trends in various rubber categories, reflecting market dynamics and inventory levels [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipt Data - The warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber futures stand at 3,050 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period [1] - The factory warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber are at 5,870 tons, also unchanged from the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for natural rubber futures total 123,310 tons, showing a decrease of 710 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The warehouse receipts for No. 20 rubber futures amount to 43,849 tons, reflecting an increase of 1,209 tons from the previous period [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed positive performance, with the main contract for synthetic rubber opening at 10,905.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 11,115.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.73% [1] - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic polybutadiene rubber in sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [1] - In the Shanghai market, high-grade polybutadiene rubber prices increased by 50-150 CNY/ton compared to the previous trading day, indicating a more cautious market sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The futures warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber remained stable at 8,750 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - Southwest Futures noted that the price of butadiene has decreased, slightly narrowing the processing losses for synthetic rubber, while the weekly capacity utilization rate for high-grade polybutadiene rubber in China was around 74%, which is relatively high year-on-year [2] - According to Greeen DGH Futures, the slight recovery in synthetic rubber prices was supported by a temporary reduction in domestic production due to maintenance, alongside improved downstream demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][2]. Price Movements - As of October 13, the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45% [1]. - The main 20 rubber futures contract NR2511 reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The main butadiene rubber futures contract BR2511 closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, with a drop of 2.67% [1]. Market Drivers - The recent price drop is primarily driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions [2]. - The impact of US-China trade friction has led to increased pressure on global financial markets and heightened volatility in investor sentiment [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in futures prices for natural and synthetic rubber has outpaced that of spot prices [3]. - Synthetic rubber prices are more significantly affected by weakening crude oil prices, resulting in larger declines compared to natural rubber [3]. - Despite adverse weather conditions, including frequent typhoons and continuous rainfall in major production areas like Hainan, Yunnan, Thailand, and Vietnam, the market has not reacted positively [3]. - Instead, the market anticipates a concentrated release of supply in the fourth quarter, further intensifying downward price pressure [3].