Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities on July 29, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Ferrous Metals - Iron ore (12509): Spot price is 813, futures price is 786, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.39%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port [1]. - Coke (J2509): Data incomplete. - Coking coal (JM2509): Spot price is 1260, futures price is 1101, basis is 160, basis rate is 14.49%, historical quantile is 69.30%, and the reference is the converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Spot price is 79075, futures price is 79000, basis is 75, basis rate is 0.09%, historical quantile is 50.20%, and the reference is the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price [1]. - Aluminum (AL2509): Spot price is 20660, futures price is 20615, basis is 45, basis rate is 0.22%, historical quantile is 61.87%, and the reference is the SMM A00 aluminum average price [1]. - Zinc (ZN2509): Data incomplete. - Tin (SN2509): Spot price is 268800, futures price is 267880, basis is 920, basis rate is 0.34%, historical quantile is 71.66%, and the reference is the SMM 1 tin average price [1]. - Lithium carbonate (LC2509): Spot price is 73900, futures price is 73120, basis is 780, basis rate is 1.07%, historical quantile is 62.77%, and the reference is the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price [1]. - Industrial silicon (SI2509): Spot price is 9950, futures price is 8915, basis is 1035, basis rate is 11.61%, historical quantile is not provided, and the reference is the SMM flux 215530 average price [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Spot price is 771.6, futures price is 774.8, basis is - 3.2, basis rate is - 0.41%, historical quantile is 18.60%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) [1]. - Silver (AG2510): Spot price is 9186.0, futures price is 9212.0, basis is - 26.0, basis rate is - 0.28%, historical quantile is 32.70%, and the reference is the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) [1]. Agricultural Products - Rapeseed meal (RM509): Spot price is 2540, futures price is 2660.0, basis is - 120.0, historical quantile is 15.90%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong [1]. - Rapeseed oil (OI509): Spot price is 9490, futures price is 9406.0, basis is 84.0, basis rate is 0.89%, historical quantile is 36.50%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu [1]. - Corn (C2509): Spot price is 2350, futures price is 2319.0, basis is 31.0, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 63.30%, and the reference is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xizhou Port [1]. - Corn starch (CS2509): Partially incomplete data, with the price in Changchun, Jilin being 2740 for spot and 2683.0 for futures, basis is 57.0, basis rate is 2.12%, historical quantile is 26.00% [1]. - Live pigs (LH2509): Spot price is 14080, futures price is 14125.0, basis is - 45.0, basis rate is - 0.32%, historical quantile is 41.30%, and the reference is the ex - factory price of live pigs (outside ternary) in Henan [1]. - Eggs (JD2509): Spot price is 3040, futures price is 3576.0, basis is - 536.0, basis rate is - 14.99%, historical quantile is 5.90%, and the reference is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei [1]. - PTA (TA509): Spot price is 4800.0, futures price is 4812.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.29%, historical quantile is 47.10%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China [1]. - Ethylene glycol (EG2509): Spot price is 4500.0, futures price is 4436.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 83.00%, and the reference is the market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China [1]. - Polyester staple fiber (PF509): Spot price is 6610.0, futures price is 6482.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.97%, historical quantile is 73.60%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market [1]. - Styrene (EB2509): Spot price is 7370.0, futures price is 7358.0, basis is 12.0, basis rate is 0.16%, historical quantile is 28.90%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China [1]. - LLDPE (L2509): Spot price is 7340.0, futures price is 7335.0, basis is 5.0, basis rate is 0.07%, historical quantile is 21.10%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong [1]. - PP (PP2509): Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7130.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.49%, historical quantile is 31.40%, and the reference is the duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (drawn - grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang [1]. - Caustic soda (SH509): Spot price is 2593.8, futures price is 2593.0, basis is 0.8, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 48.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in the Shandong market, converted to 100% [1]. - LPG (PG2509): Spot price is 4448.0, futures price is 3992.0, basis is 456.0, basis rate is 11.42%, historical quantile is 62.90%, and the reference is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area [1]. - Asphalt (BU2509): Spot price is 3775.0, futures price is 3569.0, basis is 206.0, basis rate is 5.77%, historical quantile is 82.70%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in the Shandong area [1]. - Glass (FG509): Spot price is 1200.0, futures price is 1223.0, basis is - 23.0, basis rate is - 1.98%, historical quantile is 57.77%, and the reference is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, from Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) [1]. - Soda ash (SA509): Spot price is 1320.0, futures price is 1316.0, basis is 4.0, basis rate is 0.30%, historical quantile is 33.61%, and the reference is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe (daily) [1]. - Cotton (CF509): Spot price is 15473, futures price is 14075.0, basis is 1398.0, basis rate is 9.93%, and the reference is the factory - arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang [1]. - Apples (AP510): Spot price is 8600, futures price is 8052.0, basis is 548.0, basis rate is 6.81%, historical quantile is 43.40%, and the reference is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union) [1]. - Red dates (CJ601): Spot price is 8300, futures price is 10695.0, basis is - 2395.0, basis rate is - 22.39%, historical quantile is 6.50%, and the reference is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union) [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea (UR509): Spot price is 1780.0, futures price is 1738.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 2.42%, historical quantile is 24.00%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of urea (small - particle) in the Shandong area [1]. - Methanol (MA509): Spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2404.0, basis is - 11.5, basis rate is - 0.48%, historical quantile is 27.30%, and the reference is the market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China [1]. - PVC (V2509): Spot price is 5100.0, futures price is 5149.0, basis is - 49.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, historical quantile is 67.80%, and the reference is the market price (dominant price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China [1]. - Natural rubber (RU2509): Spot price is 15100.0, futures price is 15065.0, basis is 35.0, basis rate is 0.23%, historical quantile is 96.87%, and the reference is the Shanghai market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned full - latex) [1]. Others - Alumina (AO2509): Spot price is 3244, futures price is 3243, basis rate is 0.03%, historical quantile is 33.48%, and the reference is the SMM alumina index average price [1]. - Nickel (NI2509): Spot price is 122500, futures price is 121620, basis is 880, basis rate is 0.72%, historical quantile is 85.62%, and the reference is the SMM 1 imported nickel average price [1]. - Stainless steel (SS2509): Spot price is 13070, futures price is 12840, basis is 230, basis rate is 1.79%, historical quantile is 44.42%, and the reference is 304/2B:2*1240*C from Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) [1]. - Silicon iron (SF509): Spot price is 5878, futures price is 5840, basis is 38, basis rate is 0.65%, historical quantile is 63.00%, and the reference is the converted price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts [1]. - Silicon manganese (SM509): Spot price is 5970, futures price is 6028, basis is - 58, basis rate is - 0.96%, historical quantile is 17.80%, and the reference is the converted price of 6517 silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts [1]. - Rebar (RB2510): Spot price is 3390, futures price is 3248, basis is 142, basis rate is 4.37%, and the reference is HRB400 20mm in Shanghai [1]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Spot price is 3440, futures price is 3397, basis is 43, basis rate is 1.27%, and the reference is Q235B: 4.75mm in Shanghai [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures prices, particularly in iron alloy, lithium carbonate, and coking coal, has prompted multiple exchanges to issue risk warnings and adjust risk control parameters to ensure market stability [1][12][13]. Price Movements - On July 25, major domestic commodity futures contracts saw significant price increases, with coking coal futures rising for seven consecutive trading days, reaching 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 49% for the month [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures also hit the limit, closing at 80,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 28% [4]. - Other commodities such as manganese silicon and silicon iron also reached their price limits, with monthly increases of 13% and 15%, respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The total amount of funds in the futures market reached approximately 778.3 billion yuan, the highest since January 2014, indicating strong market activity [8]. - From June 3 to July 25, coking coal prices increased by 73%, while polysilicon and glass prices rose by 56% and 35%, respectively [8]. Policy Influence - Analysts attribute the price surge to the "anti-involution" policies emphasized in the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting, which aim to promote a unified national market and improve product quality [8][9]. - The policies are expected to lead to structural reforms in supply, contributing to the current bullish sentiment in the market [9]. Risk Management - Exchanges such as Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange have issued risk warnings to their members, urging them to enhance risk management and investor education [12][13]. - The Guangxi Exchange has adjusted risk control parameters for several commodities, including increasing margin requirements and transaction fees [13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of commodities like manganese silicon will depend on the implementation of policies and the ability of downstream industries to absorb rising raw material costs [10]. - The market sentiment is currently driven by policy expectations, with a focus on the stability of external demand and substantial improvements in domestic demand [10][14].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月24日收盘主力合约丁二烯橡胶2509,涨跌+2.38%,成交量14.86万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈 现净空，差额头寸为11385手。 (*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：小浪快报 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：物产中大、持仓1796、增仓1703，银河期货、持仓3732、增仓824，东证期货、持 仓3144、增仓553；空头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓2795、减仓-885，华泰期货、持仓1207、减仓-594，国泰君安、持仓 8676、减仓-359。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年7月24日丁二烯橡胶主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | J | 中信期货 | 68,600 | 14,004 | 国泰君安 | ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts show mixed performance, with the shipping index for Europe rising over 4% [1] - Iron ore and polysilicon prices increased by more than 1% [1] - In contrast, live pigs, caustic soda, butadiene, rubber, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), SC crude oil, alumina, soda ash, and glass all experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term expected to maintain a volatile pattern, Brent to be watched in the range of $68.5 - 71/barrel, medium - term bearish [2]. - Asphalt: High - level volatility, cost - end remains strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, price expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [3][4][5]. - LPG: Expected to be weak, with a decline in total supply, weak combustion demand and weakening chemical demand [6][7][8]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand support but is affected by supply and spot price, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - PX: Expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand [13]. - PTA: Expected to fluctuate, with an increase in inventory accumulation expectation and price under pressure [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Expected to fluctuate, with supply recovery and inventory accumulation expectation in August - September, but cost support from coal prices [16][17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with production cuts planned by major manufacturers and weak terminal demand [18]. - PR (bottle chips): Expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term, with processing fees strengthening and production cuts gradually implemented [21]. - Styrene: Expected to fluctuate, with the supply - demand pattern weakening in the third quarter and price under pressure [25]. - Plastic PP: Medium - term prices are bearish, short - term prices are volatile due to cost push [26][27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a supply - demand surplus pattern and price is under pressure, but short - term watch due to strong black market [31]. - Caustic soda: Short - term expected to fluctuate strongly, pay attention to liquid chlorine price and spot [31]. - Glass: Expected to fluctuate, with the price having no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors [33]. - Soda ash: Expected to fluctuate, with supply and demand factors affecting the price and overall sentiment being positive [35][36]. - Methanol: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, pay attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [38][39]. - Urea: Short - term strong, but be cautious when chasing high due to weak domestic demand and export restrictions [41][42]. - Log: Near - month contracts are in the delivery verification stage, recommend watching, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads [43]. - Double - offset paper: In a supply - demand weak situation, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Corrugated paper: In a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Pulp: SP main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [47][48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: RU main 09 contract to watch, NR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [50][51]. - Butadiene rubber: BR main 09 contract can try to go long, pay attention to the BR2509 - NR2509 spread [54]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.38, up $0.05/barrel, + 0.07%; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.19, up $0.04/barrel, + 0.06%; SC main contract 2508 rose 5.8 to 515.7 yuan/barrel, night - session rose 4.4 to 520.1 yuan/barrel; Brent main - second - line spread was $1.19/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and there may be a cease - fire in Gaza; Trump announced tariffs on products from multiple countries [1]. - Logic Analysis: Near - month spreads are strong, overseas diesel cracking spreads are high, refinery profits are recovering, short - term balance is maintained, and long - term supply surplus pressure is not fully priced [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term range - trading for single - side, watch the Brent range of $68.5 - 71/barrel; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable for arbitrage; watch for options [2][3]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3627 points (+ 0.11%), BU2512 night - session closed at 3436 points (- 0.12%); spot prices in different regions were reported [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with supply being sufficient and demand being weak [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: Oil prices are volatile at a high level, cost - end is strong, short - term supply - demand is weak, inventory is stable, single - side price is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation, and cracking spreads are expected to remain high [4][5]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side high - level volatility; asphalt - crude oil spread is stable for arbitrage; watch for options [5][7]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 night - session closed at 4192 (+ 0.34%), PG2509 night - session closed at 4091 (+ 0.34%); spot prices in different regions were reported [5]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, with overall supply - demand being weak [5][6]. - Logic Analysis: Supply decreased last week, demand is weak in both combustion and chemical fields, and inventory decreased. The overall fundamentals are loose [6][7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side weak operation [8]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.304 (+ 0.25%), HH closed at 3.211 (- 3.77%), JKM closed at 12.5 (+ 0.32%) [8]. - Logic Analysis: US natural gas production decreased, demand is strong, LNG export increased, prices are expected to rise; European natural gas prices are affected by temperature and storage regulations [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: HH single - side buy on dips, TTF single - side volatility [9]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2964 (- 0.60%), LU09 night - session closed at 3686 (- 0.30%); Singapore paper - cargo market spreads changed [10]. - Related News: South Sudan issued a tender, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, and Singapore spot - window transactions were reported [10]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur spot discounts declined, supply is expected to increase, and demand has seasonal support; low - sulfur supply is increasing and demand lacks drive [10][11]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch; watch the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6724 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), night - session closed at 6752 (+ 28/+ 0.42%); spot prices and PXN changed [13]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [13]. - Logic Analysis: Social inventory is low, supply is tight, Asian PX operating rate declined, and downstream demand is increasing [13]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4718 (+ 8/+ 0.17%), night - session closed at 4732 (+ 14/+ 0.30%); spot basis changed [14]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [15]. - Logic Analysis: Futures fluctuated, spot basis weakened, domestic TA load increased slightly, downstream polyester load decreased, and inventory accumulation expectation increased [15]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4283 (+ 16/+ 0.37%), night - session closed at 4308 (+ 25/+ 0.58%); spot basis and prices were reported [15][16]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately; some overseas and domestic plants restarted [16]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to recover, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, but coal prices provide cost support [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [17]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract day - session closed at 6528 (+ 10/+ 0.15%), night - session closed at 6552 (+ 24/+ 0.37%); spot prices in different regions decreased [17][18]. - Related News:江浙涤丝产销 was weak, and direct - spinning polyester staple fiber sales improved moderately [18]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants cut production, processing margins expanded, terminal demand is weak, and major manufacturers still have production - cut plans in July [18]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [19]. PR (bottle chips) - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5880 (+ 14/+ 0.24%), night - session closed at 5892 (+ 12/+ 0.20%); spot market trading was okay [20]. - Related News: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable [21]. - Logic Analysis: Processing fees strengthened, production cuts were gradually implemented, and it is expected to fluctuate with the raw material end in the short term [21]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; watch for arbitrage and options [22]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract day - session closed at 6070 (+ 139/+ 2.34%), night - session closed at 6140 (+ 70/+ 1.15%); EB2508 main contract day - session closed at 7350 (+ 74/+ 1.02%), night - session closed at 7437 (+ 87/+ 1.18%); spot prices and basis changed [22][24]. - Related News: East China pure - benzene port inventory decreased, and styrene East China main - port inventory increased [24]. - Logic Analysis: Pure - benzene supply is abundant, demand is expected to increase; styrene supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [25]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and consolidation; long pure - benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; watch for options [26]. Plastic PP - Market Review: LLDPE market prices in some regions declined, and PP spot prices in different regions changed [26][27]. - Related News: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed [27]. - Logic Analysis: There is large production - capacity release pressure in the third quarter, terminal demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [27]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side medium - term bearish, short - term volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [28]. PVC Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot prices increased, and caustic soda spot prices in different regions changed [28][29][30]. - Related News: Product prices in different regions changed, and some chlorine - alkali enterprises adjusted their loads [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC has production - capacity release pressure, domestic demand is weak, and exports face risks; caustic soda has a peak - season expectation, but new production capacity will be released in July - August [31]. - Trading Strategy: Caustic soda single - side short - term volatile and strong; PVC single - side short - term watch, medium - term bearish; watch for arbitrage and options [32]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton (10/0.98%), night - session closed at 1048 yuan/ton (13/1.26%); 9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - Related News: The domestic float - glass market was stable, and some regions planned to increase prices [32]. - Logic Analysis: Glass prices were strong, but there is no continuous driving force due to cost and demand factors; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [33]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, glass volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [33][34]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1194 yuan/ton (16/1.4%), night - session closed at 1206 yuan (12/1.0%); SA9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan/ton; spot prices in different regions changed [34]. - Related News: The domestic soda - ash market was weak, and some enterprises adjusted prices; photovoltaic "anti - involution" and other news were reported [34][35]. - Logic Analysis: Soda ash prices were strong, supply may decline, demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and profits are shrinking; overall sentiment is positive, and prices are expected to fluctuate [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side overall sentiment positive, soda ash volatile; watch for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - Market Review: Futures prices rose, and spot prices in different regions were reported [37]. - Related News: China's methanol port inventory increased [37]. - Logic Analysis: International plant operating rates increased, imports are expected to recover, supply is loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [38][39]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side fluctuation and weakness; watch for arbitrage; sell call options [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures were strong, and spot prices increased [40]. - Related News: China's urea enterprise inventory decreased [41]. - Logic Analysis: Some plants were under maintenance, demand is affected by domestic and international factors, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term but be cautious when chasing high [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side short - term strong; watch for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [42]. Log - Market Review: 9 - month contract prices declined; some radiation - pine log prices changed [42][43]. - Related News: New Zealand port log departures and sea - freight rates changed; there were delivery intentions and pairings [42][43]. - Logic Analysis: Downstream demand is weak, and the scale difference supports the disk; pay attention to delivery details [43]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side watch for near - month contracts; watch the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage; watch for options [43][44][45]. Double - offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable, and prices in different regions were reported [45]. - Related News: Some production lines in East China were shut down, and paper - enterprise inventory pressure was relieved [45]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand are weak, paper mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and wood pulp prices help relieve cost pressure [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: Corrugated and box - board paper market prices were stable, and some regions adjusted prices; raw - material prices were stable [46]. - Related News: Market sentiment was divided, and some paper mills adjusted prices [46]. - Logic Analysis: The market is in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply, weak demand, and poor cost support [46]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Pulp - Market Review: Pulp futures were strong, and spot prices in different regions changed [47]. - Related News: Shandong Sun Paper will build a pulp mill [48]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for SP single - side [48]. - Trading Strategy: SP main 09 contract try to go long; reduce and watch the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread [48]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract rose, NR main 09 contract rose, and BR main 09 contract rose; spot prices in different regions were reported [48][49][50]. - Related News: June national passenger - car retail sales increased [50]. - Logic Analysis: Some economic data are favorable for the spread and single - side [50]. - Trading

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern and turn bearish in the medium term due to OPEC's expected production increase and potential supply surplus after the peak season [2]. - The asphalt market shows a weak trend in the short term due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and expected cost loosening, with short - term prices fluctuating narrowly and cracking spreads remaining high [3][4]. - The liquefied gas market is expected to have a weak price trend due to reduced supply, weak combustion and chemical demand, and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see price increases due to increased LNG exports and strong demand, while the European market is expected to be weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - The fuel oil market shows different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - The PX market is expected to follow the cost side in the short term due to tight supply and increasing demand [14]. - The PTA market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and expected inventory accumulation [16]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to increasing supply, expected inventory accumulation, and decreased downstream demand [18][19]. - The short - fiber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with strong support for processing fees due to production cuts and weak downstream demand [20]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term due to production cuts and strong processing fee support [24]. - The styrene market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to increased supply, decreased demand, and increased inventory [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be under pressure in the second half of the year due to expected new production capacity, weak domestic demand, and limited export growth, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [29]. - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term but face pressure from new production capacity in July - August, with attention to production and inventory changes [30]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be bearish in the short and medium term due to production capacity pressure, weak terminal demand, and a strategy of shorting on rallies [32]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention to production and sales, and in the medium term, to cost reduction and factory cold - repair [35]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic may return to the industrial logic, with a bearish fundamental situation [38]. - The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to increased supply, stable demand, and eased geopolitical conflicts [41]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate due to high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export policies [42]. - The log market suggests waiting and seeing for the near - month contracts and paying attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [44][45]. - The double - offset paper market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets suggest holding short positions for the RU and NR main 09 contracts and holding the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 [50][51]. - The butadiene rubber market suggests short - selling the BR main 08 contract, waiting and seeing for the spread between BR2509 and NR2509, and selling the BR2509 call option [53][54]. - The pulp market suggests short - selling a small amount of the SP main 09 contract and holding the spread between 2*SP2509 and NR2509 [57]. Summaries by Directory Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $67.93, up $0.93 or 1.39% ; Brent2509 contract settled at $69.58, up $1.28 or 1.87% ; SC main contract 2508 fell to 501.3 yuan/barrel and then rose to 512 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date to August 1st and plans to raise tariffs significantly. OPEC+ may approve a production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC's production increase expectation is strengthened, and the market may face a supply surplus after the peak season. However, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the short term and turn bearish in the medium term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading idea in the short term and be bearish in the medium term for single - side trading; keep an eye on the stabilization of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads for arbitrage; and wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3594 points (+0.90%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3396 points (+0.80%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta increased, and that in South China remained stable [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and cost is expected to loosen. The short - term price will fluctuate narrowly, and the cracking spread will remain high [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: the asphalt - oil spread rebounds as oil prices weaken in the short term; options: wait and see [4][6]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4193 (+0.34%) at night, and PG2509 closed at 4088 (+0.25%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [6]. - **Related News**: The market in South China is stable with weak demand; the market in Shandong has different trends for civil gas and ether - post carbon four; the market in East China is generally stable with some weakness [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply decreases, demand in both combustion and chemical fields weakens, and inventories are reduced. The price is expected to be weak [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 33.621 (+0.45%), HH closed at 3.401 (+0.09%), and JKM closed at 12.44 (+1.47%) [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreases, demand is strong, and LNG exports increase, so prices are expected to rise. European natural gas prices are weak due to strong supply, weak demand, and reduced cooling needs [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: go long on HH at low prices and expect TTF to fluctuate [9][10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2971 (+1.05%) at night, and LU09 closed at 3670 (+1.89%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads remain stable [10]. - **Related News**: Indonesia bids to sell fuel oil, and India's fuel consumption decreases in June [10][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has demand support from seasonal power generation and procurement in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and stable demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see; arbitrage: pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot and consider going long on the FU91 positive spread at low prices [12][13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6684 (+0.18%) during the day and 6706 (+0.33%) at night. Spot prices rebounded slightly [14]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: PX inventory is low, supply is tight, and downstream demand is expected to increase. It is expected to follow the cost side in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4710 (+0.00%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and a PTA device resumes normal operation [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [16][15]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4279 (+0.05%) during the day and 4279 (+0.00%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and port inventory increases [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, downstream demand decreases, and inventory accumulation is expected in August - September. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6518 (+0.06%) during the day and 6526 (+0.12%) at night. Spot prices vary by region [20]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some factories cut production, processing margins expand, and downstream demand is weak. Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: short PTA and long PF; options: wait and see [20][22]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5872 (+0.03%) during the day and 5874 (+0.03%) at night. Spot market trading is light [23]. - **Related News**: Some bottle - chip factories plan to cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Processing fees are strong due to production cuts. The price is expected to follow the raw material side and fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [24]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 main contract closed at 7337 (-0.04%) during the day and 7382 (+0.61%) at night. Spot prices and basis are provided [24][25]. - **Related News**: Port inventories of styrene and pure benzene increase [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventories rise. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate and consolidate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [26][27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decrease slightly, and caustic soda spot prices increase in some areas [27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreases, and the purchase price of caustic soda by some alumina factories increases [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC faces over - supply in the second half of the year and is under price pressure; caustic soda may fluctuate strongly in the short term but faces pressure from new production capacity in July - August [29][30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: caustic soda fluctuates strongly in the short term; PVC is bearish and suggests short - selling on rallies; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [30][31]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices in some regions decrease, and PP prices in different regions also show declines [32]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreases, and the PP maintenance ratio increases [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is production capacity pressure in the third quarter, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: bearish in the short and medium term; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [32][33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton (-0.68%) and remained unchanged at night. Spot prices vary by region [34]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, LOW - E glass sample enterprise开工率 decreases, and the glass market has different trends in different regions [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is difficult to rise continuously due to cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and pay attention to cost reduction and factory cold - repair in the medium term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [35][36]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton (-0.5%) and rose to 1172 yuan at night. Spot prices vary by region [37]. - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increases, production and开工率 increase, and downstream demand is general [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. It is expected to show a weak shock performance this week as the macro - logic returns to the industrial logic [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate weakly this week; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [38][39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2386 (-0.29%). Spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: International methanol production increases [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is stable, and geopolitical conflicts ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options [41]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1748 (-0.34%). Spot prices rise slightly [42]. - **Related News**: Urea daily production increases, and production enterprise inventory decreases but remains high [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and export policies are uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: fluctuate; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell call options on rebounds [42][43]. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and the number of incoming ships of New Zealand logs decreases [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need further consideration. The difference between standard and market scales supports the current price [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: wait and see for near - month contracts; arbitrage: pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options: wait and see [44][45]. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The double - offset paper market is stable, with paper mills stabilizing prices and social demand in the off - season [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both weak, but the supply - demand relationship is partially alleviated by autumn publication orders. Paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices due to cost pressure relief [46][48]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU main 09 contract closed at 13950 (-0.14%), NR main 09 contract closed at 11990 (-0.33%) [48][49]. - **Related News**: Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The El Niño index has a negative impact on RU, and inventory has different trends in different areas [50][51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: hold short positions for RU and NR main 09 contracts; arbitrage: hold the spread

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说，此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示，截止 6 月 6 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶，比 前一周下降 341 万桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶，比前一周下降 364.4 万桶；美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶，比前一周增长 150.4 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶，比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶，比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶，比去年同期 ...