投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未好转，矿价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开 拓 进 取 3.震荡偏强/偏 ...

期货研究报告 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动不足，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空焦灼，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：节后首日，焦煤主力合约维持弱势格局，日内增仓下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2605 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are seeking a bottom weakly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakened during the holiday. Supply increased from a low level and inventory was high, while demand was weak and the weak pattern will continue in the short term. Steel prices are under pressure, but policy expectations and cost support are relatively positive factors. The subsequent trend will continue the weak bottom - seeking state, and domestic policy situations should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic of accumulating industrial contradictions and steel prices seeking a bottom weakly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar weakened. Supply increased from a low level and inventory was high, increasing supply pressure. Demand was weak, and high - frequency demand indicators were at a low level in recent years with a time lag in recovery. The weak pattern will continue in the short term, dragging down steel prices. Policy expectations may increase. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. Policy expectations and cost support are positive factors, and the subsequent trend will be a weak bottom - seeking state, and domestic policy situations should be focused on [3]

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2026/02/10 695 440 3623 3623 3701 -447 -710 77.0 79.9 84.4 76 2026/02/11 695 445 3652 3652 3732 -418 -680 77.0 79.9 84.4 76 2026/02/12 705 441 3639 3639 3721 -431 -742 77.0 79.9 84.4 76 2026/02/13 705 437 3588 3588 3668 -482 -790 77.0 79.9 84.4 76 2026/02/24 705 444 3648 3645 3698 -422 -731 77.0 79.9 84.4 76 变化 0 7 60 57 30.00 60.00 59 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对05（-90）附近。 MEG装置变化 山西沃能30万吨重启。 周度观点 近端国内油制持稳而煤制重启 ...

期货开户入口 2017 + 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 价差及量能说明 2026年2月24日 同時 联游 原来 地改 - 211 the PTA DG 09 DD 型 13 下台灣 in i 足立 t 日演 IF cial t co FB 鸽面 追留 PVC 工业 2 1 E米 IT adv 官代招 白陵 作群 la 瑞 红十 量仓变化统计 巾功力分 研究员 田猛 从业资格证号:F3020809 投资咨询资格:Z0013442 本产品数据与信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性 不做任何保证。我们力求内容客观、公正、观点及内容仅供参考,不构成所 述品种的买卖出价。任何表示过去或历史业绩的信息均不代表未来的业绩, 交易者据此作出的任何投资决策及交易行为与本公司无关。交易者应综合考 虑自身风险承受能力,依据自己的独立思考做出投资决策,自行承担投资决 策风险和交易结果。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 风险揭示:期市有风险 入市需谨慎。本文观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 热点品种 2026年2月24日 | 板块 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求同比仍然较弱，铁水产量偏高，钢材整体供需偏宽松。同时原料端供应较高， | | | 谨慎看空 | 钢材成本有下行驱动。节后宏观政策预期有升温可能，中期料维持区间运行。 | | ★ | | | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存绝对水平偏高，供需变化符合季节性特征。基差在平水 | | ★ | | 附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压制，中期维持区间运行。 | | | | 春节长假期间进口铁矿石远期现货市场的整体活跃度较弱，外矿发货明显回升，铁水继 | | 铁矿石 | | 续增加，港口库存积累，钢厂消耗库存为主。对于节后的市场，目前的价格处于相对的 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 低位，节后的价格可能会随着钢厂的补库需求而有所支撑，短期内的价格可能会有所走 | | | | 强，但是向上的空间则较为有限。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 焦企利润明显改善，短期焦企开工持稳。从需求来看，铁水产量回升放缓，下游维持按 | | ★ | | 需采购，节后钢厂或有提降预期，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel 2603, it is expected to have high - level volatile adjustments and focus on intraday trading [2] - For Stainless Steel 2604, it will operate in a volatile manner with high - level adjustments [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: The price of Shanghai Nickel main contract dropped from 139,610 on February 12th to 135,190 on February 13th, a decrease of 4,420; the price of LME Nickel increased from 17,250 to 17,285 (on February 23rd), a rise of 35; the price of Stainless Steel main contract decreased from 13,970 to 13,860, a drop of 110 [7] - **Spot**: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased from 145,350 on February 12th to 140,100 on February 13th, a decrease of 5,250; the price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B remained stable in multiple locations [7] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 13th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, with the futures inventory at 52,458 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons and 1,184 tons respectively compared to the previous period [9] - The LME nickel inventory on February 23rd was 287,706, an increase of 1,320 compared to February 12th; the Shanghai Nickel (warehouse receipts) increased by 431 to 52,458; the total inventory increased by 1,751 to 340,164 [10] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 13th, the inventory in Wuxi was 562,400 tons, in Foshan was 326,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,006,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,000 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 647,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons [14] - The stainless steel warehouse receipts increased by 4,885 to 60,138 from February 12th to February 13th [15] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 64.5 US dollars per wet ton, and Ni0.9% remained at 30 US dollars per wet ton on February 13th compared to February 12th [19] - The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet ton increased by 0.95 to 1,047.72 yuan per nickel point, while the low - nickel (below 2) wet ton remained at 3,600 yuan per ton [19] Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,772, the scrap steel production cost is 13,421, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 17,840 [21] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 135,800 yuan per ton [24]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 假期累库显著，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期现货贸易停滞，价格持稳为主，且螺纹钢产业矛盾假期持续累积，库存大幅增加，建筑钢 厂生产平稳，螺纹钢周产量环比增 1.22 万吨，低位小幅回升，且库存水平偏高，供应压力未有缓 解，关注节后短流程钢厂复产情况。与此同时，假期因素扰动下螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标 位于近年来同期低位，且恢复存在时滞，需求弱势格局未变，继续拖累钢价，相对利好则是政策预 期或增强。总之，供稳需弱局面下假期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-65 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：节后或高开，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 1.42% lower at 16,315 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 120 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,248 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,187 yuan/ton, closing 2.45% lower at 2,188 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Dominated by a weak supply - demand fundamental, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 475.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 454.4 yuan/barrel, closing 4.22% lower at 460.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the peak season for crude oil demand comes to an end, crude oil has gradually weakened. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risk situation in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and a growth rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises stopped work, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Compared with the previous month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. The China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) in January 2026 was 51.2%, slightly down 1.2 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a significant increase of about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.68%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.50%, and a significant increase of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,300 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.21%, with a week - on - week small increase of 1.21 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 1.62%. As of February 13, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decline of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 18,700 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small increase of 43,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total domestic inland methanol inventory reached 340,300 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 28,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, with a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels/day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with a growth rate of 71.07%. As of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with a growth rate of 32.45% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,315 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | - 65 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,222 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,188 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 34 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.9 yuan/barrel | + 15.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (including methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [16][29][44]