铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝在铜价因印尼矿端事件引发的大涨行情带领下，略有反弹，但随后伴随铜价休整回落，铝价亦再度回调。短期 整体趋势仍在磨盘，节前可轻仓，长假期间建议关注美国非农、海外多国制造业PMI数据等对国际市场的冲击。中期趋势 性上看，我们在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方向。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的基本面微观指标来看，整体依然不差。SMM华东现货贴水转平水，不过华南现货贴水有所扩大。截至9月 25日，铝锭社会库存较前周去库2.2万吨至61.4万吨，周四出现去库，在国庆累库过后可观察是否已形成去库拐点的确认。 下游方面，截至9月26日铝板带箔周度总产量已经连续第6周环比增加，年初迄 ...

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-09-28 需求跟进偏弱，压制聚烯烃上行空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7159元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6893元/吨（-5），LL华北现货为7140 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+10），LL 华东基差为-19元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-143元/吨（+5）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.8%（+1.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-1.8元/吨（-55.8），PP油制生产利润为-631.8元/吨（-55.8），PDH制PP生产利润 为-264.0元/吨（-39.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-56.7元/吨（-1.9），PP进口利润为-532.6元/吨（-1.9），PP出口利润为15.3美元/吨（+0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为32.9%（+6.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.4%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为43.9%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, suggest a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. The futures price closed higher this week. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be good and domestic vegetable oil supply is relatively loose, rapeseed oil production pressure is low due to low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases. The extension of anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed may keep the supply tight in the fourth quarter. Overall, rapeseed oil is still supported before substantial progress in China - Canada trade negotiations [8][9] - For rapeseed meal, suggest short - term trading and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The futures price declined this week. US soybean harvest is approaching with a good harvest expectation, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed the international market competition. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is cautious due to frequent trade policy news [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 10,162 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. Domestic vegetable oil supply is loose, but rapeseed oil production pressure is low. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed may lead to tight supply in the fourth quarter [9] - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,404 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton from last week. US soybean harvest is approaching, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but soybean meal substitution weakens demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 354,265 lots, up 1,836 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined with a total position of 371,100 lots, down 10,071 lots from last week [16] - Top 20 net positions: Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long position increased from +33,259 to +36,449. Rapeseed meal's top 20 net short position increased from - 13,121 to - 62,563 [20] - Futures warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal were 9,245 lots [26][27] - Spot price and basis: In Jiangsu, rapeseed oil spot price was 10,390 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was +228 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, rapeseed meal price was 2,570 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +65 yuan/ton [33][39] - Futures inter - month spread: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was +520 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was +78 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [46] - Futures - spot ratio: Rapeseed oil - meal 01 contract ratio was 4.22, and the spot average price ratio was 4.21 [49] - Price spread between rapeseed oil and other oils: Rapeseed - soybean oil 01 contract spread was 2,000 yuan/ton, and rapeseed - palm oil 01 contract spread was 926 yuan/ton, both expanding this week [58] - Price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Soybean meal - rapeseed meal 01 contract spread was 532 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 450 yuan/ton as of Thursday [64] 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - inventory and import: As of September 19, 2025, oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November 2025 were 190,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [70] - Supply - import crushing profit: As of September 26, the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,373 yuan/ton [74] - Supply - oil mill crushing volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.99% [78] - Supply - monthly import: In August 2025, China's rapeseed import was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [82] Rapeseed Oil - Supply - inventory and import: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 664,000 tons, down 19,000 tons (2.73%) from last week. In August 2025, rapeseed oil import was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [86] - Demand - consumption and production: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan [90] - Demand - contract volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil contract volume was 76,000 tons, down 5,000 tons (7.13%) from last week [94] Rapeseed Meal - Supply - inventory: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 17,000 tons, down 1,000 tons (2.86%) from last week [98] - Supply - import: In August 2025, rapeseed meal import was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons [102] - Demand - feed production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [106] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 26.61%, up 4.12% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 尽管数据不支持大幅度降息，但是美国政府关门风险和美联储官员鸽派表态提供支 | | | 长期持有 | 撑。降息落地但资金情绪不止，短期沪金 840 支撑。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降 | | ★★ | | 息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但同时也受到铜等其他金属情绪的支撑。全球政策刺激明显， | | | 强势走高 | 白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银 | | ★★ | | 盘面波动有冲击。短线轻仓持有过节，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振推动铜价暴涨，隔夜铜续创年内新高之后小幅回落，建议铜多单继续持有， | | 铜 | 强势走高 | 移动止盈兑现，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★★ | | | | 锌 | 弱势反弹 | 国庆长假临近，企业刚需备库，需求疲软，建议空单止盈兑现后准备空仓过节，中 | | ★ | | 长期看锌供增需减，仍是板块空 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周纽约金触及 38 ...

2025 年 9 月 26 日 生猪：现货旺季不旺，维持做空思路 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12580 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12250 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 13110 | | -250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 12685 | | -45 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 13310 | | -35 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 12745 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 26 日 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6674 | 4678 | 4246 | 6372 | 490.6 | | 涨跌 | 72 | 52 | 12 | 76 | 8.3 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 1.21% | 1.72% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -42 | -40 | -64 | -44 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | -22 | -36 | -64 | -50 | -0.5 | | 涨跌 | -20 | -4 | 0 | 6 | -0.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-26 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日美联储如期降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期，不过点阵图显示 20 ...