南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——新棉采收进入尾声，郑棉窄幅震荡波动 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前全疆棉花整体采收进度已进入尾声，近日南疆机采棉收购价多集中在6.30-6.40元/公斤，北疆多集中在 6.15-6.30元/公斤，新棉成本基本固化在14600-15000元/吨左右，截至2025年11月6日，全国新年度棉花公证 检验量累计225.44万吨，日度公检量维持在约8万吨上下，随着新棉加工公检量加速增长，新季供应将持续放 量，对棉价形成压力。目前下游纱布厂负荷整体基本持稳，整体需求温吞，但纱厂棉花库存不高，存在刚性 补库需求，下游库存尚未表现出明显矛盾。近日昨日郑商所对棉花替代交割品升贴水进行了调整，新规自 26/27年度开始实施，本次调整有利于提高仓单与纺企实际需求的匹配度，并在空间上合理配置棉花资源供 应。 新疆机采籽棉3128B收购价季节性 元/斤 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 6 中国棉花累计检验量季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 600 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2 亿美元，同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同 比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库 存822万吨。中性。 6：预期：目前新棉逐步上市，产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. The upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton is a bearish factor, but the slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices and the reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US leaders' meeting are positive. The cotton futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports show varying data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report for the 25/26 season indicates a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,841, with a basis of 1306 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons for the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall main position is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested, and the seed cotton purchase price has increased slightly. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, tariffs have been reduced. The futures main contract 01 has rebounded and is currently in a short - term sideways consolidation between 13,500 - 13,700 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons. Ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data (October)**: For the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a bearish view on the cotton industry and suggests investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is bearish. The upward movement of seed cotton purchase prices and low commercial inventory support the market, but there is some hedging pressure above after the market rebounds. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the mediocre demand performance, the price may still be dominated by a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 287.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 285 - 300 million tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The domestic production is generally expected to be 750 million tons, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons, and the quality is better than last year [3] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market was trading lightly this week, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, an increase of 69.85 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons from the end of September [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2434, with 1228 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 14.64 million tons [3] - **Basis**: As of October 30, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost**: In 2025, the planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu was between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton was stable at 7.1 - 7.2 yuan/kg [3] - **Macro - environment**: The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on China, and the 24% reciprocal tariff remained suspended for another year. The US government shutdown affected data release. Domestically, policies to boost demand are expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [3] 3.2 02 Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. Global consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. Consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly to 2.613 million tons [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, and consumption is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [12][13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] - **9 - month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu was between 460 - 470 kg. The expected purchase price of seed cotton was around 6.2 yuan/kg. The old cotton inventory in Xinjiang was at a three - year low, and most yarn mills were operating at full capacity but with narrowed profit margins [23][24][25] - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.7%. From January to September 2025, cumulative yarn imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.2% [26][28] - **Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 1.7202 million tons, an increase of 0.6985 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Fundamentals**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP for the seventh time this year and will end balance - sheet reduction by the end of the year. Sino - US leaders' meeting eases trade restrictions. In the domestic market, Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, September CPI dropped 0.3% year - on - year, industrial added value rose 6.2% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month, and retail sales increased 3.0% year - on - year. The USDA halted data updates due to a government shutdown. Supply may be slightly tight in 2025/26 after the contraction of the high - yield expectation. Seed cotton acquisition costs are 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the processing progress is slower than last year. Cotton commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. In September 2025, cotton imports continued to rise month - on - month, with 680,000 tons imported from January to September, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease. In October, the textile market had average trading, mainly for rigid demand. Terminal domestic textile and clothing consumption is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved after the tariff cut delay [6][57]. - **Outlook**: In November, during the peak processing period of Xinjiang cotton, trading may slowly rise due to a slight increase in production and hedging pressure. The acquisition price of seed cotton has rebounded, increasing processing costs and expected hedging pressure levels. Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. Market expectations for new - year cotton demand have improved [6][57]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads, and buy call options [6][57]. - **Important Variables**: Listing progress, industrial policies, and macro - policies [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main US cotton contract showed a V - shaped trend, with a 0.9% monthly decline. Due to the US government shutdown, multiple data stopped updating, and US cotton followed Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton rose after a decline in October, with a 3.4% monthly increase. The expected cotton production in the new year decreased due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang. The acquisition price of seed cotton rebounded, boosting the market, but there is still hedging pressure [10]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA's September report adjusted the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand situation. US production increased by 0.2 million tons, India's ending inventory increased by 48,000 tons, China's ending inventory decreased by 229,000 tons, and Brazil remained unchanged. Globally, production increased by 231,000 tons to 2.5621 billion tons, trade volume increased by 52,000 tons to 1.9031 billion tons, consumption increased by 183,000 tons to 2.5872 billion tons, and ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 1.5924 billion tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 New - Year Production Estimate - In September 2025, the China Cotton Association predicted an increase in national cotton production. The national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the expected total output was 7.278 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year increase. Xinjiang's output was 6.972 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase, while the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins saw output declines [17]. 3.3.2 Cotton Acquisition and Processing - As of late October, cotton picking and acquisition in Xinjiang were progressing smoothly. Due to lower - than - expected yields in southern Xinjiang, acquisition prices rose, with northern Xinjiang at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg and southern Xinjiang at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. As of October 30, 2025, the national cumulative inspection was 1.68 million tons, with 1.6636 million tons in Xinjiang [19]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In mid - October, commercial cotton inventory was 1.7202 million tons, up 698,500 tons from the end of last month, and industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, down 36,200 tons. Commercial inventory is seasonally increasing, expected to be at a low level at the end of October. Industrial inventory decreased slightly, and yarn and fabric inventory days also decreased [23]. 3.3.4 Cotton Import Volume - In September 2025, 95,000 tons of cotton were imported, a 22,300 - ton year - on - year decrease and a 22,300 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to September, 680,800 tons were imported, a 69.9% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.3.5 Textile Enterprise Processing - As of October 24, spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.4 days, unchanged from last week; yarn inventory was 27.8 days, up 0.3 days; weaving mills' yarn inventory was 7.7 days, down 0.2 days; and cotton fabric inventory was 31.6 days, up 0.3 days. The yarn and fabric load indexes were 51.4% and 51.9% respectively. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was dull [30]. 3.3.6 Textile Demand - In September 2025, retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 123.1 billion yuan, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative retail sales were 1.0613 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.4 billion US dollars, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, cumulative exports were 221.7 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. Domestic demand is resilient, while external demand is weak, but export expectations have improved [46]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook The content is the same as the core views of the report [6][57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows mixed signals. Fundamentally, multiple factors such as production, consumption, and import - export data are somewhat bearish, but there are also bullish factors like the basis and the position of the K - line relative to the 20 - day average. The overall expectation is that the new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors are ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The content does not contain a previous day's review section. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton year. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons with an ending inventory of 1592.5 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 year in October: production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,833, and the basis is 1268 (01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons in the 25/26 year in October, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, previous negative news has been digested, the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 will continue to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus The content does not contain a today's focus section. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 25/26 year, global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons [12][13]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 25/26 year, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [14]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data The content does not contain position data other than the description of the main position being bearish and the net short position decreasing in the daily tips section.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The previous price was oversold, and with the new cotton coming onto the market and China - US negotiations in progress, the bearish sentiment has eased [4]. - Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous bearish news has been gradually digested, and the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. The futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The national cotton output is expected to be 728000 tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/2026 season are both 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish factors: a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors: ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and inventory trends [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons (+3.9%) [15]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for the 2025/2026 Season**: The output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report regarding position data.

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Cotton Morning Report - October 22, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - **Report Date**: October 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and market trends. Overall, the market shows a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang reaching a new high. Multiple reports provide different data on global and domestic cotton production, consumption, and inventory. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%, while cotton yarn imports were 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,728, and the basis is 1,188 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the earlier bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continues to fluctuate and rebound [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: The total global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4][9]. - **ICAC Global Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 Season Data (October)**: Production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4][13]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the report. 4. Bullish and Bearish Factors 4.1 Bullish Factors - The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and commercial inventory is lower year-on-year [5]. 4.2 Bearish Factors - Trade negotiations are ongoing, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have decreased, and inventory has increased. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and consumption during the "Golden September" period was weak [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current cotton harvest in Xinjiang is over halfway, with the northern region in the later stage and the southern region progressing more slowly. As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative national notarized inspection volume of new - season cotton is 56.9 million tons. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased due to the resurgence of Sino - US tariff policy fluctuations, but the purchase price in some southern Xinjiang areas remains firm [1]. - In the short - term, although the increase in production expectation has been slightly revised, the overall output is still high, and the downstream peak season demand is weakening, so the upward driving force of cotton prices is insufficient. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. - The trading strategy suggests a wide - range shock for cotton prices. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The progress of cotton picking in Xinjiang is accelerating. The purchase price of new cotton has slightly decreased, but it is still relatively firm in southern Xinjiang. The concentrated listing of new cotton in late October will put pressure on cotton prices. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream is weakening, but spinning mills still have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton stocks [1]. - In the short - term, the purchase price of new cotton is firm, but the overall output is high, and the downstream demand is weakening. In the long - term, domestic cotton supply and demand may be tight due to limited import quotas [4][17]. 1.2 Transaction - type Strategy Recommendations - The cotton price is expected to fluctuate widely. For CF2601, consider short - selling on rebounds, pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity, and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn price difference [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of cotton in the near - term is 13,000 - 13,600. For inventory management, enterprises with high inventory can short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low inventory can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: The closing prices of Zheng cotton 01, 05, and 09 are 13,335, 13,390, and 13,565 respectively, with weekly increases of 10, 15, and 15, and increases of 0.08%, 0.11%, and 0.11% respectively. - Spot data: The prices of CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B are 14,679, 12,844, and 14,964 respectively, with decreases of - 96, - 88, and - 75, and decreases of - 0.65%, - 0.68%, and - 0.5% respectively [21]. - Spread data: The CF1 - 5 spread is - 55, the CF5 - 9 spread is - 175, and the CF9 - 1 spread is 230. - Import price: The prices of FC Index M and FCY Index C32s are 12,851 and 21,110 respectively, with decreases of - 86 and - 65, and decreases of - 0.66% and - 0.31% respectively. - Cotton yarn data: The closing price of futures is 19,470, with a weekly increase of 95 and an increase of 0.49%. The spot price is 20,440, with a decrease of - 20 and a decrease of - 0.1% [23]. Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: As of October 10, the national new cotton picking progress is 32.6%, the national delivery rate is 73.1%. On October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang is 6.17 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg [24]. - Bearish information: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports are 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be slightly revised up to 4.077 million tons [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - In Xinjiang, pay attention to the change in the purchase price of machine - picked cotton and the final output of Xinjiang cotton. Due to the US government shutdown, pay attention to the release of the USDA report, as well as the growth and export of US cotton [29]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zheng cotton oscillated this week. After a decline at the beginning of the week, the trading volume increased, and the capital entered the market, leading to a slight rebound in cotton prices. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure. The near - term contracts are weak due to the increase in supply and hedging pressure, while the far - term contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year [34]. - Basis structure: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down this week, and the basis has slightly declined. The spot price of the same quality has a lower basis of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and most sales basis quotes are CF01 + 1200 - 1350 [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - With the listing of new cotton, the arrival price of cotton has continued to decline, while the cotton yarn price has remained stable, so the spinning profit of domestic spinning mills has been significantly repaired [39]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is tight. The issuance of the additional quota has limited impact on the market, and the import profit of foreign cotton has rebounded slightly recently [42]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - season Xinjiang cotton is gradually being listed, and the high - yield pattern is basically established. However, the yield in some southern Xinjiang areas is lower than expected, and the lint percentage is low, so the increase in production may be narrowed. It is estimated that the new - season cotton import volume is 1.1 million tons, and the probability of further increasing the sliding - duty quota is low. The domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic [47].