Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which temporarily stopped falling and consolidated sideways. The ICAC 8 - month report and USDA 7 - month report provide different 2025/26 annual production and consumption data. Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July decreased year - on - year, and cotton imports in June decreased significantly year - on - year while cotton yarn imports increased slightly. The Sino - US trade negotiation has been postponed, and the textile export data in July is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1) Previous Day Review This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which stopped falling and consolidated sideways. There are different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory from various institutions. The Sino - US trade negotiation is postponed, and textile export data is not good [4]. 2) Daily Tips - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduction of previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3) Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 4) Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July)**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, with different production changes in various countries. Consumption is also different among countries, with a total of [not clearly stated]. Import and export volumes vary by country, and the global期末库存 is 1683.5 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2590 million tons, consumption is 2560 million tons,期末库存 is 1710 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents/pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and期末库存 is 823 million tons. The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 5) Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex with mixed signals. The fundamental factors are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bearish, the market trend on the disk is bearish, the main - position holding is bullish but with an unclear trend, and the future expectation is weak. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as the delay of Sino - US trade negotiations, poor textile export data, and the current consumption off - season [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Bearish factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information about the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC August report predicts a global output of 2590 tons, consumption of 2560 tons; the USDA July report forecasts an output of 2578.3 tons, consumption of 2571.8 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 tons; the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows an output of 625 tons, imports of 140 tons, consumption of 740 tons, and an ending inventory of 823 tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,178 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1378 yuan, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for ending inventory is 823 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend on the Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main - Position Holding**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The Sino - US trade negotiations are further postponed, lower than market expectations. The textile export data in July during the rush - export window is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, and the future expectation is weak [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information about today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July)**: In 2024/25, the total global output is 2578.3 tons, with consumption of 2571.8 tons, imports of 972.8 tons, exports of 973 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 tons. Different countries have different trends in output, consumption, import, and export [8][9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (2025/26)**: The global output is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast (July 2025/26)**: The output is 625 tons, imports are 140 tons, consumption is 740 tons, and the ending inventory is 823 tons [4]. 3.5. Position Data The main - position holding is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic import quota policy, the de-stocking speed of cotton in the off-season, and the adjustment of the Sino-US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Core Contradictions - The decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts, but the tight supply - demand situation at the end of the domestic year may support prices, and the short - term trend may be volatile. Key factors to watch include import quota policies, off - season de - stocking speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 利多解读 - High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and reserve cotton has not been sold. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, with an expected tight - balance state at the end of the year. Also, the late pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5] 利空解读 - Mainland textile mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang mills'开机 is stable. Downstream finished - product inventory has slightly decreased but still faces pressure. Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak flowering and boll - setting stage, with good growth and an optimistic production outlook for the new year [8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,820, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,655, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,735, up 30 (0.15%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,845, up 20 (0.1%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,514, up 36; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120, up 35; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 35; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,085, down 65; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,766, up 57; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 536, unchanged [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 15,169, up 16 (0.11%); CCI 2227B was 13,302, up 15 (0.11%); CCI 2129B was 15,457, up 22 (0.14%); FCI Index S was 13,577, down 165 (-1.2%); FCI Index M was 13,387, down 164 (-1.21%); FCI Index L was 13,086, down 189 (-1.42%) [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving logic of cotton has changed, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new cotton year. In the international market, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the domestic market, the 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, while the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is still in a high - yield pattern. The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton production in 2025/26 would be 25.783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,000 tons or 1.2%, but there is an expectation of an increase later. The estimated production of Chinese cotton is 6.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 218,000 tons or 3.1%, but the market believes there is an upward adjustment space of about 500,000 tons. Recently, the United States has been affected by drought, but the actual impact is limited, and the good - to - excellent rate of American cotton is still 55% [6]. - In 2025, the actual sown area of domestic cotton increased month - on - month, and the total output is expected to increase by 2.8% year - on - year. The actual sown area of the whole country is 4.5803 million hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the estimated output is 6.864 million tons [49]. - The sales rate of lint cotton is much higher than the same period last year. As of July 24, 2025, the sales volume of cotton was 6.44 million tons, and the sales rate was 96.5% [57]. Demand Side - The USDA July report estimated that the global cotton consumption in 2025/26 would be 25.718 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 309,000 tons or 1.2%. The estimated consumption of Chinese cotton is 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 109,000 tons or 1.2%, and China is the only major cotton - consuming country with a year - on - year decrease [7]. - In June, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in China were 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 742.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing products were 89.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, and the cumulative retail sales from January to June were 534.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products is lower than that of social retail sales [7]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive load of yarn was 49.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 47.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 44.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [7]. Import and Export - In June, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, hitting a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [8]. - In June 2025, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was 12.048 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 70.519 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in June was 15.267 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.79%, and the cumulative export from January to June was 73.459 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Inventory - As of mid - July, China's commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 287,400 tons; the industrial inventory was 882,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,900 tons; the total was 3.4245 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 308,300 tons [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 29.62 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33.48 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 31.36 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days; the cotton - yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 30.14 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 days. The cotton - yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.48 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 days; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 37.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 days [9]. International Market - After the end of the macro super - week, subsequent economic data still need continuous attention, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The price of American cotton is under pressure, and the probability of an interest - rate cut in September is about 80%. Overall, the price of American cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and if there are unexpected disturbances, the center of gravity may rise slightly [11]. Domestic Market - The driving logic has changed rapidly, and there is not much contradiction between supply and demand in the new domestic cotton year. The 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and strongly in the long - term [12].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250801 Cotton Series Monthly Report: Weakening De-stocking Expectations due to Negative Demand Feedback, Waiting for Cotton Prices to Find the Bottom in the Off-season [1] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Team: Agricultural Products Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative feedback in demand has weakened the de-stocking expectations, and it is necessary to wait for cotton prices to find the bottom in the off-season [1] - In the short term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bearish. For short positions, consider gradually reducing positions to take profits, and pay attention to the opportunity of low-cost long positions in far-month contracts after the market risk is further released [2] Summary by Directory Macro - According to the consensus of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. Pay attention to Trump's final decision before August 12 [2] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Recently, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has cooled sharply under the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks [2] - The domestic Politburo meeting continued to mention "making progress while maintaining stability", "timely increasing efforts", "implementing in detail", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition", and continued to promote the acceleration of the domestic cycle [2] Supply - **International**: The soil conditions in the main cotton-producing areas have weakened slightly. The non-drought rate has decreased to 93% under the influence of drought in the Midwest, but it is still much higher than the same period. The latest good-to-excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The supply pressure in the US cotton area has weakened. In India, 9.86 million hectares of new cotton have been planted, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The spot cotton price has stopped rising and fallen, and the CCI has cumulatively auctioned and sold 1.22 million tons of cotton. In Brazil, the latest harvest progress has reached 21.7%, with the harvest progress in the main producing state of Bahia at 40% and that in the state of Mato Grosso at 12.6% [2] - **Domestic**: Xinjiang cotton has entered the flowering and boll-forming stage. The actual sown area of cotton is 45.803 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. It is estimated that the yield per mu of new cotton in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the guaranteed output is expected to be raised to 7.4 million tons. The high-temperature weather in August is expected to gradually improve compared with July, and the probability of weather speculation is low. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The import volume of cotton yarn in June was 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The total import volume of cotton resources was basically the same as that in May, and no quota policy has been introduced [2] Inventory - **Domestic**: The total industrial and commercial inventory is slightly lower than that of the same period last year by about 40,000 tons, and the inventory in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period by about 200,000 tons. It is estimated that the national commercial inventory by early September will be comparable to the average level of the past five years. Pay attention to the possible slowdown in the recent de-stocking speed. At the finished product end, the replenishment of cotton yarn and grey cloth has slowed down significantly this week, and the negative feedback expectation after the weakening of the downstream replenishment willingness is gradually reflected in the market [2] - **International**: In May 2025, the inventory value of clothing and clothing fabrics of US wholesalers was $28.636 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73% and a month-on-month increase of 0.49%. The inventory value of retailers in May was $58.056 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%. The overall inventory level of US clothing is still relatively neutral, and the inventory at the retail end needs further de-stocking [2] Demand - **Domestic**: The orders of textile enterprises have dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. The operating rates of weaving mills and spinning mills have accelerated their decline and are lower than those of the same period. The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have been running at a recent low level. The overall price center of clothing fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market has improved, which may indicate that the foreign trade situation is not overly pessimistic. In June 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, affected by the slowdown in the export growth rate of textiles, the export growth rate of clothing and textiles has further slowed down. The US market performed slightly better than last month, and the ASEAN and EU markets were relatively stable. Pay attention to whether the extension of China-US tariffs can be finally confirmed [2] - **International**: The soil moisture in the main producing areas of US cotton has slightly deteriorated but is still suitable for the growth of new cotton. The trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing, and the export demand for US cotton in the second half of the year still needs to be viewed with caution [2] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (July) - **Production**: In the 2025/26 season, the global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month-on-month to 25.78 million tons. Among them, China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons month-on-month to 6.749 million tons, the US production is expected to increase by 131,000 tons month-on-month to 3.048 million tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 1.089 million tons [3] - **Consumption**: In the 2025/26 season, the global consumption is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month-on-month to 25.718 million tons. Among them, Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 2.373 million tons, and the remaining small countries will share the rest [4] - **Trade**: In the 2025/26 season, the global imports and exports are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons month-on-month to 1.263 million tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 1.284 million tons [4] - **Ending Inventory**: In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month-on-month to 16.833 million tons. Among them, China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 8.07 million tons, and the US ending inventory is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 1.001 million tons [4] Cotton Futures and Spot - The cotton price rose and then fell within the month, and the basis level remained high [5] Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The futures price of cotton yarn rose and then fell within the month, and the basis performance was weaker than that of cotton [12] Supply Details - The actual sown area of US cotton is higher than expected, and the drought in the Midwest has pushed the good-to-excellent rate to decline slightly. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The non-drought rate in the main cotton-producing areas of the US decreased by 3% to 93%, which is 45% higher than the same period. The drought situation has slightly increased, but the soil moisture is still at the best level in the past five years, and the abandonment rate has dropped to 14.427% [14][15] - The de-stocking of raw materials has been relatively fast, but the replenishment of gauze has slowed down significantly this week. This week, the national industrial and commercial inventory decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period by 37,600 tons; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang decreased to 1.7257 million tons within the month, lower than the same period by 204,600 tons; the commercial inventory in the inland decreased to 768,100 tons this week, lower than the same period by 155,100 tons. At the finished product end, the available days of pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.04 days to 31.86 days, the terminal grey cloth inventory increased by 0.28 days to 30.74 days, and the inventory of polyester-cotton yarn in the factory increased by 0.8 days to 28.58 days [16][17] - In June, the import of cotton resources in China did not continue to shrink. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of about 82.1%; from January to June, China imported about 460,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.3%. According to customs statistics, in June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 670,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to June 2025), the cumulative import of cotton yarn was about 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18% [18][19] - The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts has accelerated slightly, and the high-sugar warehouse receipts limit the short squeeze. As of July 31, there were 8,940 registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou cotton, a decrease of 1,271 within the month, and 348 valid forecasts. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 9,288, equivalent to 371,500 tons of cotton. Among the warehouse receipts, the cotton resources from Eastern Xinjiang account for a relatively large proportion this year, and the problem of high sugar content in some warehouse receipts continues to limit their outflow under the current tight inventory expectations [20][21] Demand Details - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have accelerated their decline, and the losses of textile enterprises have deepened further. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills decreased by 1.9% to 67.6%, lower than the same period by 2.9%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.7% to 38.2%, lower than the same period by 1.4%. The year-on-year difference in operating rates has gradually widened compared with the same period last year. The orders of textile enterprises decreased by 0.33 days to 6.94 days, lower than the same period by 2.73 days, and the difference has further expanded compared with last week. From the perspective of spinning profits, the spot profit of the mainstream yarn count within the week dropped to -1,938 yuan/ton, and the expected profit per ton of enterprises in Xinjiang dropped to less than 100 yuan [22][23] - The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have continued to weaken, and the prices of fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market have shown a differentiated trend within the week. In the Light Textile City, the latest total transaction volume this week increased by 24,000 meters to 4.892 million meters, and the cotton cloth transaction volume decreased by 30,000 meters to 240,000 meters. In the Keqiao market, the price of accessories increased by 2.17 to 116.44 this week, and the fabric price decreased by 0.19 to 110.66 [24][26] - In June, the export of clothing and textiles decreased slightly year-on-year, and the performance of textiles continued to be weak. In terms of monthly values, the export of textile and clothing in June was $27.31 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the export of textiles was $12.05 billion, a decrease of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, and the export of clothing was $15.27 billion, an increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. In terms of cumulative values, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, the year-on-year export growth rates from April to June were all lower than that of the national goods trade. The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is that the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact on the textile and clothing industry chain. Although the "rush to export" of some enterprises has promoted the growth of clothing export data in May and June, the slowdown in exports to the US from ASEAN and South Asia has led to the drag of textiles on the overall export of clothing and textiles [28][30] - The export to the US has improved slightly, while the exports to ASEAN and the EU have shown a slowdown trend. In June, China's clothing exports to the US reached $3.189 billion, an increase of $607 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $239 million; China's textile exports to the US reached $4.428 billion, an increase of $973 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $339 million. China's clothing exports to the EU reached $3.092 billion, an increase of $425 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $4 million; China's textile exports to the EU reached $4.629 billion, an increase of $461 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $124 million. China's clothing exports to ASEAN reached $1.12 billion, an increase of $55 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $252 million; China's textile exports to ASEAN reached $3.788 billion, a decrease of $162 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $361 million [31][36] - In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry weakened, and the demand-related indicators continued to weaken. In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of demand, the PMI of new orders increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the PMI of operating rates increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. In terms of inventory and production, the PMI of cotton yarn inventory increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94%. The weakening of demand and the inventory accumulation trend at the terminal continued [37][38] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non-commercial and fund investors have rebounded slightly [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The overall outlook indicates that cotton has returned to a weak position. The consumption off - season has led to insufficient orders, increased losses for textile enterprises, and reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The delay in Sino - US trade negotiations and the maintenance of the current tariff situation also contribute to the weakening of the cotton market [4]. - There are some positive factors such as the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, as well as the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. However, negative factors include the approaching 3 - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, the overall decline in foreign trade orders, and the increase in inventory [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. ICAC's July report shows a production of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons. USDA's July report indicates a production of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. China's rural department in July estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,470 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1715 yuan, showing a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 823 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is considered a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations continue to be postponed, and tariffs remain unchanged for the time being. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen below the 14,000 mark, and cotton has returned to a weak position [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, and the total consumption is 2571.8 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventories. For example, China's production is 675 million tons, and consumption is 794.7 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024, the global cotton production is 2568.757 million tons, and the consumption is 2552.675 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1878.09 million tons [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, the estimated production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.

20250726棉系周报： 宏观转暖不敌供需弱预期 仍需警惕回调风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年7月26日 周度综述：摘要 2 7月USDA供需平衡表总览——中美产量调增超消费，全球期末库存调增 | 棉花供需平衡表(7月) | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024/25 | 项目名称 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | | 2025/26 (6月) | 2025/26 (7月) | 环比变化 | 同比变化 1) | | 中国 | | 581.3 | 669.5 | 595.5 | 696.6 | 653.1 | 674.9 | 21.8 | -21.8 | | 印度 | | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 511.6 | 0.0 | -10.9 | | 巴西 | ...

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月24日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮即将举行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09走势明显强于01，可能临近交割月，期现价差回 归动力增加。09短期 ...