交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口 10万吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740 万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15295，基差1420（09合约），升水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and imports are low. However, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand, making it difficult for cotton prices to improve. The Xinjiang new - season cotton is in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture is acceptable, with the recent high - temperature situation in the production area having eased. The strategy is that the USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while the rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market to fluctuate strongly. But weak downstream demand, increased new - season planting area, and the expected alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - This week, cotton fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, with increased planting area, decreased yield per unit, increased production, unchanged total consumption, and increased ending inventory. Globally, cotton production and ending inventory increased slightly. In China, supply and demand are both weak, with continuous consumption of commercial inventory and low imports. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature has eased. The USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market, but weak downstream demand and other factors will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. 2. Market Review - As of the close on July 11, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.48%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,885 yuan per ton, up 105 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.76% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Balance Sheet - U.S. Cotton - For the 2025/2026 season, the expected planting area is 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the expected harvested area is 8.66 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 470,000 acres; the expected yield per unit is 809 pounds per acre, a month - on - month decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the expected production is 14.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 600,000 bales; the expected total consumption is 14.2 million bales, unchanged from the previous month; the expected ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 bales [12][15]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Growth - As of the week of July 6, the U.S. cotton good - to - excellent rate was 52%, up from 51% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 14%, up from 9% the previous week, compared with 18% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 15%; the squaring rate was 48%, up from 40% the previous week, compared with 51% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 49% [19]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Exports - As of the week of July 3, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 75,000 bales, compared with 24,000 bales the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 82,000 bales, compared with 107,000 bales the previous week [23]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Operation - As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. The overall operation changed little. The sales of inland spinning mills were slightly worse than those in Xinjiang. Some small inland spinning mills stopped production to handle inventory, while Xinjiang spinning mills maintained stable operation. Inland spinning mills operated at 50% - 70% capacity, and Xinjiang mills at 80% - 90% [27]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Inventory - As of the week of July 10, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.1 days of storage. As of July 10, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. Currently, downstream fabric mills operate at about 30% capacity, are not active in purchasing raw materials, and inventory is still accumulating. Large mills in Xinjiang have an inventory of 35 - 40 days, and inland enterprises have 20 - 28 days [31]. Domestic - Cotton Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.6063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,300 tons (a decrease of 5.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.7978 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 115,000 tons (a decrease of 6.01%); the commercial cotton in inland areas was 428,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,300 tons (a decrease of 1.68%). As of July 10, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.76% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not elaborated in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the upward pressure on cotton prices remains significant, and the driving force is weak. Considering the global and domestic cotton market conditions, it is expected that the cotton price will face substantial upward pressure, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35]. Summary According to the Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - **Global 2025/26 Cotton Supply and Demand**: In the USDA's June report, for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, beginning/ending stocks, and trade volume are all adjusted downward. Production is cut by over 800,000 bales, with an increase in China's output and decreases in India, the US, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced by over 300,000 bales. Ending stocks decline by nearly 1.6 million bales, and the stock - to - use ratio drops 0.2 percentage points month - on - month and 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The global supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the production - consumption gap widens by 110,000 tons to - 170,000 tons [2]. - **US Cotton Supply and Weather**: The USDA's June report shows that for the 2025/26 season, US cotton production, beginning stocks, and ending stocks are adjusted downward month - on - month, while consumption, imports, and exports remain unchanged. Due to excessive rainfall and delayed sowing, the harvested area is cut by 2 percentage points to 8.19 million acres, and the average yield per acre drops by over 1 percentage point to 820 pounds/acre. The US cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, 500,000 bales less than last month, the second - lowest in the past decade. Ending stocks are reduced by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million bales. As of July 6, 2025, the US cotton (American cotton) good - to - excellent rate is 52%, slightly up from the previous week (51%) but lower than the same period last year (45%). The squaring rate is 48%, and the boll - setting rate is 14% [5][7]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - **Expected Domestic Cotton Production in 2025/26**: In 2024, the domestic weather was suitable during the new cotton planting and growing period, with a record - high yield per unit of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%, and the total national output was around 6.7 million tons. In June 2025, the National Cotton Market Monitoring System's survey shows that the actual sown area in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 2.707 million mu or 6.3%. The expected total output will increase by 2.8% to 6.864 million tons, and the report estimates the output may be around 7 million tons [10]. - **Current Domestic Cotton Commercial and Industrial Inventories**: As of June 15, the national cotton commercial inventory is 3.1269 million tons, in a stable destocking state; the national cotton industrial inventory is 0.9301 million tons. The commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, and the industrial inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history, showing a state of low upstream inventory and high downstream inventory [14]. - **Continuous Accumulation of Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of the end of May 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises is 22.34 days, an increase of 1.3 days from last month and a decrease of 5.2 days year - on - year. The grey cloth inventory is 32.9 days, an increase of 1.7 days from last month and 2 days year - on - year. Yarn and grey cloth are continuously accumulating inventory [16][19]. - **Weak Textile and Apparel Export Performance**: The US is one of the main export destinations for China's textile and apparel. From January to May 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports are $116.67 billion, a 1% increase. Among them, textile exports are $58.48 billion, a 2.5% increase, and apparel exports are $58.2 billion, a 0.5% decrease. In May, textile and apparel exports are $26.21 billion, a 0.6% increase and an 8.4% month - on - month increase. Textile exports are $12.63 billion, a 1.9% decrease and a 0.4% month - on - month increase, and apparel exports are $13.58 billion, a 3% increase and a 17% month - on - month increase [23][25]. - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Consumption**: From January to May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are 20.3171 trillion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods are 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate rebounds by 1.3 percentage points month - on - month. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase. In May, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles are 122.5 billion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate expands by 1.8 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - **Poor Downstream Immediate Textile Profits**: As of the end of June, the domestic immediate yarn - cotton price difference is around 5,400 yuan/ton, continuously declining this year and at a relatively low historical level. In 2024, the overall yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton. Downstream textile enterprises have suffered large losses for a long time, which has a significant negative feedback on the upstream raw material prices, and the low downstream profits make it difficult to actively replenish inventory [31]. Trading Logic - **Global Perspective**: According to the USDA balance sheet, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is in a weak balance. The current US weather is favorable for cotton growth, and the US good - to - excellent rate remains at a high level. There is also a lot of uncertainty in global tariffs, and both supply and demand have large adjustment spaces [32][35]. - **Domestic Perspective**: Currently, the domestic commercial inventory is at a low level, but the industrial inventory is at a high level, and the downstream yarn and grey cloth inventories are continuously accumulating. The losses of downstream textile enterprises have generally increased, and even Xinjiang yarn mills are on the verge of break - even. The willingness of the industrial chain to replenish inventory is low [35]. - **Demand Aspect**: The export demand for textiles is weak, and domestic consumption is also sluggish. Under the situation of tariff frictions, there is a lot of uncertainty in future exports. It is difficult to see variables that can significantly improve consumption in the short term [35]. - **Price Outlook**: The high inventory of domestic cotton spinning mid - and downstream finished products, combined with widespread losses, restrains the willingness of future yarn mills and grey cloth mills to replenish raw material inventory. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has increased in the new season, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. It is expected that the upward pressure on cotton prices will still be significant, and it is advisable to gradually short the far - month contracts on rallies [35].

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前中美达成框架协议，但关税细节仍未公布，宏观不确定性仍存。25/26 年度全球棉花供需仍偏宽松，美棉新年度平衡表预计改 善有限，ICE 美棉预计下半年维持震荡运行，但仍需关注后续各主产国天气及贸易政策变化。国内郑棉在库存偏紧预期影响下短期 走势偏强，但新年度疆棉预期丰产，贸易战令需求也难有爬升，新棉集中上市后棉价压力较大…… 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 棉花半年报 2025-7-6 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存1672.1 万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱进口10万吨， 同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期 末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15154，基差1414（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for cotton [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The international cotton market is expected to maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market is also expected to have a low - level sideways pattern, with an estimated range of 12,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [2][3] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - term opportunities to short the January contract on rallies and conduct band trading within the estimated range. Also, pay attention to potential reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. First Half of the Year: Trade Wars Intensified Cotton Market Fluctuations - In the first quarter, the external market was weakly sideways with a downward shift in the center, while the domestic market was range - bound and relatively resilient. The international market faced a more relaxed supply - demand situation, and the trade war cast a shadow over demand. The ICE cotton price fluctuated weakly around the cost of US cotton, with an operating range of 63 - 69 cents per pound. The domestic market had support from low raw material inventories in downstream spinning enterprises and low social inventories of cotton yarn, but was also constrained by unhedged and unpriced resources of ginning factories and concerns about demand due to the trade war. The Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated in the range of 13,300 - 13,900 yuan per ton [16] - In the second quarter, trade policy changes led to intensified fluctuations in both the external and domestic markets. The external market was relatively stable, while the domestic market was more volatile. The price difference between the domestic and international markets first narrowed and then widened. Overall, the domestic market was stronger than the external market [17][18][19] 3.2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.2.1. United States - The USDA may have limited room to further lower the production estimate for the 2025/26 US cotton season. The actual sown area may be lower than the intended area, and the abandonment rate is expected to be between 10% - 20%. The estimated production range is 2.9 - 3.265 million tons [22][23][25] - The export target for the 2024/25 US cotton season has been basically achieved, but the export contract signing for the 2025/26 season has been slow. As of June 12, the cumulative export contract volume for the 2025/26 season was 378,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease [37][38] - The inventory - to - use ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline year - on - year but remain at a moderately high historical level. The estimated inventory - to - use ratio is between 29.3% - 30.8%, and the ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65 - 85 cents per pound [53] 3.2.2. India - The monsoon rainfall is expected to be abundant, and there is a possibility of an increase in the planting area and production. The USDA's estimates of India's cotton planting area and production may be underestimated [60][62] - The net import volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season may continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the US - India trade negotiations and the inventory digestion progress of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) [68] 3.2.3. Brazil - Brazil's cotton production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high. The Conab has continuously raised its production estimate, and the latest estimate is 3.915 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase [76] 3.2.4. Global - The global supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is not expected to be tight. The USDA's subsequent estimates of global supply and demand may be adjusted to a more relaxed direction. The estimated global cotton production may be revised upwards by 400,000 - 600,000 tons or more, and the consumption may remain stable or slightly decline [84][87][89] 3.2.5. International Cotton Market Fundamental Summary and Market Outlook - It is expected that the cotton market will maintain a low - level sideways pattern in the second half of the year, with an estimated operating range of 65 - 80 cents per pound. Attention should be paid to factors such as weather, trade policies, and macro - dynamics [98] 3.3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.3.1. The Planting Area of Xinjiang Cotton has Expanded in the 2025/26 Season - The planting area of Xinjiang cotton has expanded due to planting structure adjustment and the reclamation of new land. The estimated increase in the national cotton planting area is between 1.7% - 3.3% [105] 3.3.2. Ginning Factories may Remain Rational in New Cotton Purchases - Ginning factories are expected to purchase new cotton rationally. The initial purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year and then fluctuate weakly. The purchase price of cottonseed is expected to be higher than that of last year [110][111][112] 3.3.3. Commercial Inventory of Old Cotton has been Reduced Rapidly - The commercial inventory of old cotton has been reduced rapidly, which has led to concerns about a potential shortage during the transition between the old and new cotton seasons [3] 3.3.4. Registered Warehouse Receipts - Attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts in inland warehouses. If the warehouse receipts cannot be digested, there may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between November and January contracts [4] 3.3.5. Import Volume of Cotton and Cotton Yarn has Decreased - The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn in the 2024/25 season has decreased [3] 3.3.6. Trade Wars and Textile Demand - Trade wars and the uncertain trade policies have cast a shadow over the demand for cotton. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, and the demand in the second half of the year may be weaker than that of last year [2][3] 3.3.7. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand situation in the 2024/25 season was tight, while the 2025/26 season may be a year of easy inventory accumulation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. Although the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year, the upward movement of cotton prices is difficult due to factors such as the expected high - yield in some major producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, and the expected slowdown of the global economy [3][8]. - In the international market, the center of the ICE US cotton futures price in the 2025/26 season is expected to move slightly higher than in the first half of the year, but the increase is limited, and it will generally operate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [8]. - In the domestic market, the bottom of the cotton price may have emerged, but the rebound of the cotton price is under pressure due to the high - yield expectation, and the upward space is relatively limited. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price in the second half of the year may move slightly higher, but the space is expected to be limited [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 25.472 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 639,000 tons. However, the market believes that the USDA underestimates the global cotton output, and the actual output decline may be lower [3][38]. - **US**: The planting area of US cotton this year has decreased by about 10 - 15% year - on - year. As of June 17, the area of US cotton affected by D1 - D4 level drought accounted for 3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points. The good and excellent rate of US cotton is 48%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the performance during the harvest period last year. It is expected that the final output of US cotton this year will be basically the same as last year [3]. - **China**: Most of the new domestic cotton is in the budding and flowering stages, and the weather conditions are relatively suitable. It is a market consensus that the planting area has increased year - on - year, and the probability of a high - yield this year is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Global**: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 263,000 tons. However, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the expected slowdown of the global economic growth, the future uncertainty is still relatively large [4]. - **China**: From January to May, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 613.84 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The cumulative retail sales of clothing products from January to May were 443.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products was lower than that of total social retail sales. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive load of yarn was 53.88%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 52.66%, a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 49.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the load of pure cotton grey cloth was 45.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74 percentage points [4]. 3.3 Import and Export - **US Cotton Exports**: As of June 13, the total signing volume of US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season was 2.731 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 188,000 tons. The signing volume of exports to China was 169,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.015 million tons. The proportion of US cotton exports to China was only about 6%, reaching a historical low [5]. - **China's Imports**: In May, China's cotton imports were 40,000 tons, a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. In May, the import volume of cotton yarn was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [5]. - **China's Exports**: In May 2025, the monthly export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 12.631 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the cumulative export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 58.476 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 13.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative export from January to April was 58.195 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [5]. 3.4 Inventory - **China**: As of the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.1269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 331,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons; the total was 4.057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 342,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 300,000 tons. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.14 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.98 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 days. As of the week of June 21, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 27.38 days, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 days; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 35.22 days, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88 days. As of the week of June 20, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.94 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.34 days; the inventory of pure cotton grey cloth was 33.96 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.18 days [6]. 3.5 Price - The spot price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn has fallen more than the futures price of cotton yarn. On June 27, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn was 20,105 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 390 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 1.90%. The price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 8.61% [29][31]. - The basis of cotton yarn has fluctuated and declined. On June 27, 2025, the basis of cotton yarn was 275 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1,530 yuan/ton [33][35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14894，基差1429（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, both domestic and international cotton markets currently lack obvious upward drivers and are likely to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][68] - It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities under the expectation of a looser domestic supply after October, specifically the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures 11 - 1 reverse spread [3][70] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2025 H1 Cotton Futures Market Review - In H1 2025, Zhengzhou Cotton Futures mainly showed a volatile trend, with fluctuations mainly affected by the sentiment of the domestic financial market driven by macro - factors. There was a rebound before the Spring Festival, a sharp decline after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival due to the US tariff policy, and another rebound after the China - US peace talks in May [6] 2025 H2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation Analysis Global Cotton Supply - In H2 2025, global cotton supply is expected to remain abundant. The bumper harvests of Brazilian and Australian cotton have laid the foundation for a loose supply. The market will mainly focus on US cotton production and also consider other major producing countries. Only when the combined production reduction of major producing countries exceeds expectations will the global supply tighten in H1 2026 [7][8][9] - **Brazil**: In 2025, Brazilian cotton production continued to increase, but the rising cost may slow down the area growth in 2026. The export situation in H2 2025 will affect farmers' planting willingness in 2026 [12][13][15] - **US**: The area and yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season are uncertain. It is necessary to wait for the area outlook report at the end of June and pay attention to the weather from June to August. If the yield is flat year - on - year, the total supply will increase, and exports are expected to rebound. The export is also affected by economic and trade negotiations [20][23][25] - **Other Major Producing Countries**: The cotton production of India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Australia in the 2025/26 season is uncertain. If the production decreases by more than 400,000 tons year - on - year as estimated by USDA, it will benefit the exports of Brazil and the US, mainly in H1 2026 [30][32] Global Cotton Demand - From the macro - environment to micro - data, there is no optimistic outlook for global cotton demand. The instability of the global economy and international trade has a negative impact on cotton demand. The terminal's replenishment demand is not optimistic, and the direct import demand mainly depends on China [35][37][39] 2025 H2 China Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis China Cotton Supply - The market is worried that the domestic cotton inventory will be tight at the end of the 2024/25 season, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down from June to September. The new - year cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to remain high, and the national cotton area is also expected to increase [47][50][51] China Cotton Consumption - Since the 2024/25 season, the apparent consumption of domestic cotton has been better than expected. As long as the cotton price remains low, the demand in H2 2025 will remain stable. The terminal demand for textile and clothing has slowed down in terms of domestic sales and changed in terms of exports. The direct demand for cotton has increased due to capacity expansion and low prices [54][62][64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部5月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存853万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14857，基差1317（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库 ...