Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, ending a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current interest rates are in a reasonable range and that monetary policy is supporting the goal of achieving a 2% medium-term inflation target [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the ECB is likely to reassess the situation in September, with more complete data and tariff developments providing a basis for policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The ECB has warned that external risks remain high, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and exchange rate fluctuations, which could hinder corporate investment [2] - Lagarde noted that stronger euro and higher tariffs are expected to make corporate investment more challenging, reflecting market concerns about the outlook for recent US-EU trade negotiations [2] - The ECB is adopting a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals before making further policy decisions, as indicated by various analysts [2] Group 3 - The eurozone economy shows resilience driven by domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, rising real incomes, and robust private sector balance sheets [3] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable at around 2%, with core inflation pressures easing and wage growth slowing, reducing the risk of price increases [3] - Analysts believe that the current interest rate levels provide space for the ECB to remain observant, with expectations that rates will remain stable until autumn unless significant changes in inflation or growth prospects occur [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause its year-long interest rate cut cycle, marking the first such pause in over a year, as policymakers await clearer information before deciding on future actions [1][2] - A recent survey indicated that all but two economists expect the ECB to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting, temporarily halting the 200 basis points of rate cuts that began in June 2024 [1] - The ECB's communication style and policy statement will be closely watched, particularly how officials describe the decision to maintain rates, as the use of the term "pause" may fuel market expectations that rate cuts are not over [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, is a primary reason for the ECB's decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] - The potential impact of these tariffs poses significant risks to the European economic outlook, with the ECB's previous stress tests only assuming a 20% tariff on all European goods [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the eurozone's output could stagnate in the second and third quarters due to these tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of consensus among ECB officials regarding the next steps after the pause, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target [3] - Conversely, other officials express caution, suggesting that the threshold for further rate cuts is "very high," and they warn that increased public spending in the coming years could stimulate prices [3] - The strong euro, which has appreciated 13% against the dollar this year, is causing concern among some policymakers as it could make exports more expensive and lower import costs [4][7] Group 4 - The ECB is also monitoring the euro's strength closely, with some officials indicating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate the economic situation and prompt the ECB to consider further rate cuts [7] - However, not all officials share this concern, with some arguing that fears regarding the euro's strength are exaggerated and that it is difficult to complain about its strength while advocating for its global status [7]

新华财经巴黎7月22日电 欧洲中央银行将于本周召开货币政策会议，届时，距离8月1日美国对欧盟关税 暂停期结束仅剩一周左右时间。欧洲央行自去年6月以来已累计八次下调三大关键利率，且最近七次议 息会议上连续降息，目前已将存款利率降至2%。市场分析师普遍认为，由于美国关税不确定性持续以 及宽松空间足够，欧洲央行或将"踩下刹车"。 降息或按下"暂停键" 7月12日，美国总统特朗普威胁称，如果欧盟在8月1日前未能与美国达成贸易协议，就将对欧盟进口商 品征收30%的关税。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩以及贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇等官员对此回应称， 若无法达成协议，欧盟将实施反制措施。7月20日，美国商务部长卢特尼克进一步表示，谈判不会影响 加征关税，8月1日作为美方拟向欧盟输美产品征收30%关税的起始日期是"硬性"的，但此后双方仍可以 继续谈判。 尽管欧洲央行本周不太可能继续降息，但暂停并不意味着终点。分析人士认为，为了遏制欧元超涨，欧 洲央行很有可能在今年晚些时候继续降息。 由于关税问题给决策带来的复杂性，市场估计欧洲央行将暂时"按兵不动"，而不是先发制人，预计欧洲 央行在7月24日将维持利率不变。掉期市场的交易员认为，本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) should not be complacent with its current policy outcomes and must remain proactive in response to economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - The strengthening of the euro against the dollar may lead to lower inflation levels [1] - Potential tariffs of up to 30% threatened by President Trump against the EU are adding economic pressure [1] Group 2: ECB Policy Outlook - Following the recent reduction of the eurozone deposit rate to 2%, ECB policymakers may have anticipated a "wait-and-see" period [1] - It is likely that the ECB will maintain its current policy at the upcoming meeting, preferring to wait for the potential impact of the tariff measures before taking further action [1] - ECB President Lagarde's summer vacation may be shorter and more tumultuous than initially expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a favorable position due to mid-term inflation expectations reaching target levels and a more balanced economic growth outlook, making the threshold for further interest rate cuts very high [1] Group 1 - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the current economic conditions do not warrant further rate cuts [1] - The ECB plans to gradually reduce its monetary policy bond investment portfolio to zero [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) must retain all policy options due to significant economic uncertainty, with no pre-commitment or exclusion of further rate cuts [1][4] - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's governing council, emphasized the need for caution in policy-making, highlighting the resilience of the economy against various adverse factors but acknowledging future uncertainties [1][4] - The ECB has cut rates eight times since June 2024, and the market expects the upcoming meeting on July 24 to maintain rates unchanged [1][4] Group 2 - Despite inflation being around the 2% target, concerns remain about the risk of long-term inflation rates falling below this target, with predictions indicating CPI data will remain below 2% for the next 18 months [3] - Nagel reiterated that the low inflation forecast for 2026 is primarily due to base effects rather than fundamental economic issues, expressing optimism about maintaining inflation around the target in the medium term [3] - The ECB's strategy evaluation indicates a commitment to act decisively when inflation is significantly above or below the target, while large-scale asset purchases should remain an absolute exception due to risks to the central bank's balance sheet [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is increasingly considering exchange rate movements as a significant factor in its monetary policy decisions, especially in light of recent comments from Governing Council member Kazaks regarding the potential for further interest rate cuts if the euro strengthens [1][3][4] - The recent appreciation of the euro has begun to suppress import prices, particularly for commodities and energy, which may hinder the momentum for inflation recovery, posing a challenge for the ECB's goal of maintaining inflation within target ranges [3][4] - Kazaks emphasized a "gradual adjustment" approach, indicating that the ECB's current strategy is cautious and methodical, reflecting awareness of global economic uncertainties and external variables [3][4] Group 2 - The potential for the euro to act as a catalyst for a second interest rate cut by the ECB depends on its sustained strength and its actual impact on core inflation [4] - The exchange rate has re-emerged as an important consideration for the ECB, suggesting that the flexibility of European monetary policy may be greater than previously anticipated [4]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel stated that given the current special uncertainties, signaling a pause or rate cut would be unwise [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Nagel emphasized the importance of maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy in light of ongoing uncertainties in the economic environment [1] Economic Uncertainty - The statement reflects concerns about the unpredictable nature of the current economic landscape, suggesting that any premature actions regarding interest rates could be detrimental [1]