受美国通胀低于预期提振，金价抹去了隔夜跌幅上涨，一度触及两个月高位，但最终以微跌收盘。短期 交易者获利回吐导致白银价格走低，但较早前的暴跌有所回升。 新华财经纽约12月18日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 18日下跌0.23%，收于每盎司4363.9美元。 美国劳工部18日公布的数据显示，截至13日当周，经季节性调整后的首次申请失业救济人数为22.4万 人，较上周修正后的23.7万人减少了1.3万人，符合市场预期。 如市场预期，欧洲央行当日维持利率不变。黄金市场对欧洲央行货币政策决定最初反应波动不大，在经 历广泛获利回吐同时，仍保持着较高的支撑价位。 当天3月交割的白银期货价格下跌2.17%，收于每盎司65.45美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国劳工部18日发布数据显示，美国11月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，为7月份以来最低水平，也 低于市场预测的3.1%涨幅。剔除食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率同比上涨2.6%，为2021年3月以来最低 水平，也低于市场预测的3.0%。 报告符合美国货币政策鸽派立场，引发美联储进一步降息预期。报告利好贵金属，利空美元。 当天发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release a more optimistic economic growth forecast in its upcoming report, as indicated by President Christine Lagarde, highlighting the resilience of the Eurozone in the face of U.S. tariff impacts [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Lagarde noted that the Eurozone, consisting of 20 countries, has shown unexpected resilience against U.S. tariffs, with no retaliatory measures implemented by the EU and a stable euro exchange rate [1]. - The ECB has already raised its growth expectations in its recent economic forecast, with further upward adjustments anticipated in December [1]. - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing initial estimates [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Following Lagarde's comments, bond prices in the Eurozone fell, with the yield on French 10-year bonds rising above 3.60%, reaching a nine-month high [3]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB next year increased from 30% to 40% [3]. - ECB policymakers are increasingly confident that the benchmark interest rate can remain unchanged in the foreseeable future due to economic resilience [3]. Group 3: Policy Framework Discussion - In response to President Macron's proposal for adjusting the Eurozone's monetary policy framework to balance inflation with economic growth and employment, Lagarde acknowledged the importance of the discussion but emphasized that maintaining price stability is the ECB's core mission [4]. - Lagarde stated that the current policy framework provides sufficient space for the ECB to consider economic growth, employment, innovation, productivity, and climate change in its decision-making [4]. Group 4: Support for Ukraine - Lagarde positively evaluated the EU's proposal to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's defense, describing it as the most compliant with international law she has seen [5]. - She emphasized the need to clearly communicate the rationale behind this action to ensure that investors understand it is a unique case rather than arbitrary asset seizure [5].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a greater risk of inflation decline than inflation acceleration, and will take action if inflation remains below the 2% target [1][5]. Group 1: Inflation Risks - The ECB's inflation outlook includes significant downward risks, which are at least as notable as upward risks [5][7]. - Upward inflation risks are identified as supply chain fragmentation and a surge in government spending in Germany [4][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The comments from ECB member Francois Villeroy de Galhau are more dovish compared to other members, who oppose further rate cuts as inflation has decreased from 4% to 2% since mid-2024 [3][7]. - Villeroy emphasizes that it is a misunderstanding to think the ECB will tolerate inflation below but close to 2% for an extended period [3][7]. - He states that both upward and downward deviations from the 2% target are undesirable if they persist [3][7]. - The ECB is currently in a "good position," but this position is neither comfortable nor fixed, and future meetings will focus on maintaining sufficient policy flexibility [3][7].

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose slightly in November, reinforcing market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not cut interest rates again in the short term [1][4] - The harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone increased from 2.1% in the previous month to 2.2% year-on-year in November, remaining close to the ECB's target of 2% [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 2.4%, driven by rapid growth in service prices, while durable goods prices grew at a more moderate pace [4][5] Group 2 - Price pressures within the Eurozone, particularly in the service sector, continue to support inflation, with service inflation at 3.5% and unprocessed food prices up by 3.3% in November [5] - Energy prices have decreased significantly, with natural gas prices down over 40% year-on-year and crude oil prices down more than 10%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the energy sector [5] - The ECB has maintained a wait-and-see approach after cutting rates by 2 percentage points over the past year, with officials indicating they can tolerate slight deviations from the inflation target as long as underlying trends align with it [6][7] Group 3 - Market pricing reflects the expectation that the ECB is unlikely to adjust its 2% deposit rate at the upcoming meeting on December 18 [7] - Economic indicators suggest a robust expansion close to potential growth rates of about 1% to 1.5%, supported by a relatively tight labor market [7] - The Eurozone unemployment rate slightly increased to 6.4% in October, indicating ongoing labor market dynamics [7]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with a 72% chance of being nominated by President Trump, as he aligns with Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve districts report little change in economic activity, with a decline in overall consumer spending attributed to government shutdown impacts and rising costs in manufacturing and retail due to tariffs [1] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, indicating potential further easing if economic recovery remains weak [2][4] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, citing weak labor market data, while warning that upcoming economic reports may complicate January's policy decisions [2] - New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly both express support for a potential rate cut in December, with concerns about a sudden deterioration in the job market [3] - Fed's repurchase operations on November 28 received bids totaling $2.44 billion, indicating a stable banking reserve environment and low reliance on Fed liquidity tools [3] European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) acknowledges high financial stability vulnerabilities in the Eurozone, influenced by trade uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [6] - ECB President Lagarde states that current interest rates are appropriate, but warns of potential inflationary pressures if U.S. tariffs are imposed or supply chains are disrupted [5] - The ECB's financial stability report highlights risks from U.S. fiscal deficits and rising debt servicing costs, which could undermine the safety of U.S. Treasury securities and weaken the dollar [6] Market Observations - Barclays economists predict a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with internal divisions expected among officials regarding the extent of future cuts [8] - JPMorgan economists also anticipate rate cuts in December and January, influenced by recent statements from key Fed officials [8] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that Japan's central bank may delay rate hikes due to political factors, despite ongoing inflation pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Slovak National Bank, Peter Kazimir, indicates that inflation risks in the Eurozone are currently moderate, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) should avoid frequent adjustments to monetary policy to prevent increased volatility in financial markets [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Kazimir notes that while the market expects the Eurozone inflation rate to fall below 2% next year due to base effects from energy prices, there are still risks associated with core inflation and wage growth exceeding expectations [1] - Investors currently see a very low probability of an ECB rate cut in December, but maintain a 40% probability for a rate cut before mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Guidance - Kazimir emphasizes that a data-driven approach implies that future policy adjustments could go in either direction, highlighting the need for careful consideration in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Nagel denies claims that inflation in the Eurozone has fallen slightly below the 2% target, asserting that medium-term inflation remains close to the target [1] Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The ECB currently forecasts consumer prices to rise by 1.7% in the next year and by 1.9% in 2027 [1] - There are expectations that the 2028 forecast may indicate inflation not reaching the 2% target [1] Group 2: Policy Flexibility - Nagel emphasizes that the upcoming December meeting will clarify the situation regarding monetary policy, indicating that while further rate cuts are not widely anticipated, the outcomes remain uncertain [1] - He also mentions maintaining flexibility in all policy options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains its economic outlook without significant deviations from previous expectations, while keeping options open for future policy adjustments [1] Economic Data and Policy - ECB policymakers, including German central bank president Nagel, indicate that recent economic data aligns with the ECB's forecasts, justifying the decision to keep the deposit rate at 2% [1] - Nagel emphasizes that there was "no reason" to adjust borrowing costs during the last meeting, reflecting confidence in the current economic indicators [1] Future Projections - The ECB plans to review new forecasts in December, with decisions to be made based on updated data, highlighting a flexible approach amid ongoing uncertainties [1] - The focus remains on maintaining all options open as the economic landscape evolves [1] German Economic Outlook - Germany's economy is described as resilient, with expectations for moderate growth driven by increased spending on infrastructure and defense [1] - This growth trajectory is seen as a positive development for the largest economy in the Eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy is experiencing a fragile recovery with a growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, but significant downward risks continue to hinder its prospects [1][2]. Economic Performance Disparities - The economic performance of major Eurozone economies is diverging, with France growing by 0.5% driven by trade and domestic demand, while Germany and Italy are stagnating, barely avoiding recession [2][5]. - Germany's economy showed zero growth in the third quarter following a contraction of 0.2% in the second quarter, becoming a key constraint on the overall Eurozone economic acceleration [2][5]. - France is facing political and fiscal challenges despite its growth, with warnings from the central bank about the risk of "gradual suffocation" due to rising debt [2][5]. Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, entering a phase of "extended observation" due to weak economic recovery and declining inflation [3][4]. - The ECB is balancing between stabilizing prices and supporting growth amid ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to an uncertain inflation outlook [3][4]. - Economists suggest that the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, with a high threshold for future rate cuts, as inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% over the next two years [4][5]. Structural Challenges and External Risks - The Eurozone economy has been characterized by low overall growth and periodic stagnation, with cautious investment sentiment among businesses due to weak external demand and increased trade uncertainties [5][6]. - The Eurozone's export challenges are exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and a strong euro, despite a trade agreement reached in July between the U.S. and the EU [5][6]. - Internal policy risks and external economic slowdowns are significant concerns, leading to a cautious outlook on whether the Eurozone economy will experience sustained growth in the coming year [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that traders are uncertain about the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential resumption of easing policies next year, but they widely expect the ECB to maintain the current interest rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting [1][2][6] - Recent strong economic data from the Eurozone and positive signs of progress in US-China trade negotiations have led traders to reduce their bets on interest rate cuts [1][2] - The ECB's decision-making is influenced by the recent rise in inflation, which unexpectedly reached 2.2% in September, primarily due to rising service prices and a slowdown in energy cost declines [6][8] Group 2 - Traders initially priced in an 80% probability of a rate cut in 2026, but this has shifted due to renewed economic growth in the Eurozone and positive trade discussions between the US and China [9][13] - The uncertainty surrounding economic conditions remains high, with potential risks from US tariff policies and trade tensions impacting the ECB's monetary policy outlook [14][17] - The ECB has not ruled out further rate cuts, as economic risks persist, including the potential for a stronger euro and slower-than-expected fiscal stimulus in Germany [14] Group 3 - The ECB's stance on using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine is cautious, emphasizing the need to comply with international law while maintaining the credibility of the euro [18] - Discussions regarding the investment of Russian cash assets into EU-issued bonds for Ukraine support have been postponed, highlighting the complexities involved [18]