Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the macroeconomic perspective on exchange rates, particularly focusing on the US dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Divergent Views on US Dollar**: There is a split within the US government regarding the dollar's strength. White House advisors advocate for a weaker dollar to enhance trade, while the Treasury Secretary emphasizes a strong dollar to attract capital [2][4][9]. 2. **Challenges in Exchange Rate Prediction**: Predicting exchange rates is complex due to multiple influencing factors. Even authoritative bodies like the IMF struggle to provide accurate forecasts [2][5][10][11]. 3. **Impact of Capital Flows**: Recent trends show that capital flows significantly influence exchange rates, with foreign exchange trading volumes far exceeding international trade volumes [2][8][14]. 4. **US Trade Deficit and Dollar Stability**: Despite a long-term trade deficit, the influx of foreign investment has prevented systemic depreciation of the dollar [2][15]. 5. **Foreign Investment in US Assets**: In 2023-2024, foreign investments accounted for 70% of net purchases in US equities, supporting the dollar despite high fiscal and trade deficits [2][15]. 6. **Potential for Yuan Strengthening**: The accumulation of $1.7 trillion in unconverted funds by Chinese exporters may lead to a stronger yuan, especially in the context of US debt monetization [2][17]. 7. **Market Reactions to Dollar Depreciation**: A weaker dollar is expected to benefit A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing risk appetite and liquidity in these markets [2][19]. 8. **Long-term Outlook for Global Markets**: The expectation of increased fiscal spending in the US and Europe may boost global demand and investment, positively impacting stock markets and commodities [2][19]. Additional Important Content 1. **Complex Interactions Among Currencies**: The interplay between major currencies is intricate, with recent trends showing the yuan's rise, the dollar's rebound, and the euro's slight weakening [3][7]. 2. **The Role of Theoretical Perspectives**: Different economic theories (e.g., classical vs. Keynesian) provide varying insights into the factors influencing exchange rates, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach [10][11]. 3. **Current Trends in Currency Behavior**: The yuan's recent appreciation against the dollar is not indicative of a clear upward trend, as market dynamics remain complex and influenced by various factors [22][23]. 4. **Implications for Exports**: The yuan's appreciation against the dollar has a limited negative impact on overall exports, supported by adjustments in a basket of currencies [20][23]. 5. **Future of US Debt and Monetary Policy**: The US may adopt measures to manage increasing debt levels, potentially leading to a sustained pressure on the dollar in the medium to long term [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the currency markets and their implications for various stakeholders.

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].

欧洲央行行长拉加德：监测汇率，因为它们对预测至关重要。 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance and Related Trading Data Key Points of Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.383%, 4.634%, 3.299% respectively, with various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.850%, 3.876%, 1.839% respectively, with different changes over different time - spans [3] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 23, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.520, with a latest change of - 0.81%, and different changes in other time periods [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 23, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6358.910, with a latest change of 0.78%, and different changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. Other indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc., also had their respective performances [3] Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc., had different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3][4] Key Points of Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3582.30, 4119.77, 2801.20 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and other indices were 13.53, 11.44, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.68, with a环比change of - 0.07, and the German DAX had its own values [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc., were - 1079.62, - 851.71, etc., with different 5 - day average values [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 18646.00, 4703.31, etc., with corresponding环比changes [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 10.57, 1.60, - 76.76 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [5] Key Points of Treasury Futures Trading Data Treasury Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.520, 105.790, 108.600, 105.875 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [6] Funding Rates - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4268%, 1.5017%, 1.5510% respectively, with corresponding daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year, as it awaits clarity on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][5]. Interest Rate Policy - A Bloomberg survey indicates that all but two economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged, with a majority predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [1]. - The ECB is projected to cumulatively lower rates by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to position the deposit rate in a neutral zone [1]. - ECB officials are divided on future policy directions, with some open to further easing due to concerns about inflation potentially falling below the 2% target [2][3][4]. Economic Outlook - Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting in August has heightened uncertainty, with risks of a less favorable outcome from trade negotiations compared to previous forecasts [6]. - The ECB's Vice President warned of potential stagnation in output for the eurozone in Q2 and Q3 if trade talks fail [6][9]. - Positive economic signals include planned military and infrastructure spending, with over 100 billion euros (approximately 117 billion dollars) in new projects announced by top German companies [9]. Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers about the impact on export prices and import costs [10]. - Some officials suggest that a stronger euro could lead to a reconsideration of rate cuts, while others believe such concerns are overstated [10][11]. Communication Challenges - The ECB's upcoming policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks will be closely monitored for indications of future rate cuts, particularly the use of terms like "pause" which may signal that rate cuts are not over [11][12]. - The assessment of economic risks is crucial, with expectations that if risks remain skewed to the downside, it could signal a forthcoming rate cut in September [11]. Personnel Changes - The July meeting will mark the first participation of the new Dutch central bank governor, who is viewed as a moderate hawk, while the Austrian hawk representative will attend for the last time before retirement [12].

Economic Overview - China's GDP reached 66 trillion RMB, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 9.19 trillion USD, accounting for 62% of the US GDP [1][14] - The first half of the year saw total imports and exports of 21.8 trillion RMB, with exports at 13 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 7.2% [3] Export Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in exports to the US, overall exports remained positive, driven by increased trade with ASEAN, which saw a 13% rise, making it the largest buyer [3] - Exports to the EU increased by 6.6%, while Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa experienced double-digit growth [3] Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% in the first half of the year, but excluding real estate, the growth rate surged to 6.6% [6] - Real estate development investment decreased by 11%, but the decline narrowed from 14% at the beginning of the year to 9% by June, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market [8] Manufacturing Sector - The industrial growth rate for large-scale manufacturing was 6.4%, with equipment manufacturing exceeding 10% and high-tech manufacturing at 9.5%, indicating a shift of investment towards sectors capable of producing advanced technologies [8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales totaled 24.5 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 5%, but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at -0.1%, suggesting weak demand [10] - Consumer sentiment is affected by concerns over housing, education, and healthcare costs, leading to increased savings rather than spending [11][12] Future Outlook - The stability of infrastructure and manufacturing sectors is expected to continue, while the recovery of the real estate market hinges on consumer willingness to take on debt [7] - The economic landscape is characterized by a search for new markets in exports, structural adjustments in investments, and cautious consumer spending [16]

周三（7月23日），韩元兑美元最终涨0.28%，报1376.80韩元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated by 0.5%, with the exchange rate against the US Dollar reported at 29.308 [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar indicates a strengthening of the currency in the foreign exchange market [1]