证券研究报告 固收 蛰伏反击 ——2026 年债市展望 2025 年 11 月 03 日│中国内地 年度策略 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 报告核心观点 明年中美都处于关键年，全球"三个半"引擎有望形成投资拉动。国内新旧 动能转换进入右侧，供需再平衡期待有进展，名义 GDP 增速有望回升。政 策继续维持支持性立场，重点在内需和科技。债市方面，明年"资产荒"逻 辑可能趋于弱化，基本面因素的重要性有所回归，市场生态巨变，机构行为 是主要波动源。债市可能保持"低利率+高波动+下有底、上有顶"特征， 利率运行中枢持平或 ...

张大伟 制图 什么原因促使央行重启国债买卖？ ◎记者 张欣然 央行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作，再度释放稳增长、防风险并重的信号。业内人士表示，预计本轮操 作在节奏、规模和期限结构上较去年更为灵活，既为四季度市场平稳运行提供保障，也为财政政策前置 发力创造条件。 从市场反应看，债市情绪明显修复，长端利率出现技术性回稳。但机构普遍认为，当前宽货币预期尚待 验证，债券收益率的中长期走势仍将取决于基本面和政策协同的进一步演进。 2024年首次启动国债买卖，当时市场利率一度快速下行，引发资金面过度宽松的担忧。今年，机构判断 央行将更注重"定向投放"，可能通过从大型银行手中买入库存国债，在维持市场平稳的同时实现精准投 放。这种方式有助于释放流动性，又不至于引发过大的市场波动。 在操作规模上，机构普遍预计本轮买债总量难以明显超出去年。央行仍将通过与中期借贷便利 （MLF）、买断式逆回购等工具的组合运用，维持流动性总量的合理充裕。 华西证券在研报中认为，今年8至9月，大行持续净买入1年内及1到3年期国债，并明显增持3年及以上期 限债券，为后续央行操作"预留空间"。这意味着，央行若重启买债，短端与中长端的组合操作可能成为 主基 ...

Group 1: Global Fiscal Dominance - The global economy is entering a new era of fiscal dominance, driven by structural imbalances and the need for fiscal policy to address various societal demands[1] - Countries like France, the UK, and Japan are facing political challenges to fiscal tightening, leading to a necessary shift towards fiscal expansion[1] - In China, fiscal measures are crucial to address internal supply-demand issues, especially given the diminishing effectiveness of monetary policy[1] Group 2: Strategic Significance of Fiscal Expansion - Fiscal expansion is increasingly seen as strategically important in the context of global order reconstruction, including areas like AI, trade restructuring, and national defense[2] - A potential "fiscal dominance + monetary cooperation" model may emerge, where government fiscal deficits significantly increase, compelling central banks to adapt their policies accordingly[2] Group 3: Regional Fiscal Trends - In the US, the "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase federal deficits by $4.1 trillion, with a deficit rate expected to be around 7% next year[3] - European countries are expected to see marginal fiscal loosening, particularly in defense spending, with Germany leading the way with a projected increase in defense spending of approximately €5.5 billion[5] - China's fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a broad deficit rate likely to stay at high levels, supported by various policy measures aimed at boosting demand[8] Group 4: Implications for Global Economy and Markets - The combination of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is expected to support global economic growth, with a potential recovery in the global manufacturing cycle[12] - Increased fiscal spending is likely to focus on defense, infrastructure, and supply chain security, which may create cyclical opportunities in physical assets and commodities[12] - The fiscal expansion and monetary cooperation are anticipated to positively influence liquidity and profitability in global markets, particularly benefiting sectors sensitive to interest rates[13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving economic landscape in the U.S., highlighting a potential shift towards a "fiscal dominance, monetary coordination" policy model, driven by rising inflation and increasing fiscal deficits, despite the market's expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][20][24]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Inflation - The U.S. economy is experiencing a bumpy recovery, with consumer and business confidence gradually improving as policy uncertainties decrease [5][9]. - Inflation is expected to trend upwards towards the end of the year, primarily due to a "wage-inflation" spiral and tariff impacts, which may challenge traditional monetary policy approaches [16][18]. - The labor market is showing signs of recovery, with job vacancies increasing and wage growth potentially on the rise, indicating a solid foundation for consumer spending [9][12][16]. Group 2: Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Coordination - The article outlines a new policy model characterized by fiscal dominance, where fiscal policy increasingly influences monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of persistent fiscal deficits [20][24]. - The federal deficit for the current fiscal year reached $1.63 trillion by July, with projections suggesting it could rise to $1.92 trillion for the full year, indicating a significant fiscal burden [20][21]. - The article suggests that the current administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is a strategic move to reduce financing costs for both the government and private sectors, especially ahead of upcoming elections [26][29]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The article anticipates a significant increase in U.S. Treasury bond issuance, with projections of $1 trillion in net issuance for Q3 and $590 billion for Q4, primarily in long-term bonds [33][34]. - The demand for bonds is expected to be driven mainly by households, money market funds, and foreign investors, although recent trends show a decrease in holdings by money market funds [37][41]. - The article warns that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates while inflation rises, it could lead to higher long-term interest rates, with projections suggesting the 10-year yield could reach approximately 4.8% by year-end [4][45].

新华财经北京8月11日电（王菁）债市周一（8月11日）全线回调，税收调整扰动逐渐降温过后，市场开 始收益率成本适度回升预期，国债期货集体收跌，超长端走弱态势更显著，银行间现券收益率普遍回升 2BPs左右；公开市场单日净回笼4328亿元，资金利率走势小幅分化。 机构认为，8月为政府债净供给大月，流动性对冲正当其时，而税收调整之后明显利空新券定价，保障 发行成本的重要性更加凸显，因此后续或有货币配合的支持。关注8月央行是否恢复买债，或已具备一 定条件。 【行情跟踪】 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行3.1BPs报 1.9520%，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行3.2BPs报1.8220%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上 行2.65BPs报1.7175%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.67%，报470.91点，成交金额818.93亿元。海泰转债、欧通转债、荣泰转债、 塞力转债、大元转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、15.21%、15.04%、12.46%、12.35%。信测转债、中装 转2、高测转债、松霖转债、利扬转债跌幅居前，分别跌9.27%、4. ...